Breeders' Cup Turf

It’s not new news that European horses are often much better on the turf than American horses. An American hasn’t won the Breeders’ Cup Turf since English Channel dominated the race in 2007. With an army of extremely talented Europeans coming to Churchill Downs, it seems very likely that a European will win yet again this year.

Here are my top four picks for the Breeders’ Cup Turf:

1. Sea Moon: The son of Arlington Million winner Beat Hollow has only raced five times. He has never finished out of the money and is best known for absolutely dominating the Great Voltigeur (GII) by eight lengths. His final prep for the Breeders’ Cup came in the St Leger Stakes (GI), in which he got caught up in very heavy traffic and didn’t get clear until the final yards of the race. Once he found an opening, the beautiful colt with his distinctive blaze exploded to finish third. Sea Moon has much talent and will be a very dangerous horse in the Turf.

2. Sarafina: After three straight victories, Sarafina finished seventh in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (GI). Don’t let that finish scare you away from her. The French-bred filly had to travel extremely wide in the Arc and was among a tight group of horses crossing the finish line. Her form before the prestigious race was great, as she won three straight group races, including a group one, after finishing second in a group one. I expect her to run to that form.

3. Midday: (Most of the information on her was originally written in my blog post about the Filly & Mare Sprint before it was announced she would run in the Turf)

Her performance in her final prep for the Breeders’ Cup, the Champion Stakes (GI), in which she finished fourth, was quite flat. Of course, she had to travel wide and cover a lot of ground, but it was not the Midday we’re used to seeing. Before the Champion Stakes, she hadn’t finished worse than third since November of 2008, when she ran in her first stakes as a two-year-old.

However, Midday is always dangerous. She has an impressive record in the Breeders’ Cup, as she won the Filly & Mare Turf in 2009 and finished a close second in that race last year. She’s already defeated Await the Dawn and has just as much class as the rest of these.

4. Await the Dawn: This talented colt brings to America a story that will make you want to cheer for him. Recently, the Kentucky-bred European became so ill due to stress of traveling with an unruly horse that he almost didn’t survive. However, the colt has recovered and is cross-entered in the Turf and Classic, though his first preference is the Classic. Prior to finishing third to Midday in the Juddmonte International (GI), Await the Dawn wheeled off four straight victories, three of which were group races. If he can regain his top form, he will be a big threat.

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