Countdown to Derby Day:
The Kentucky Derby (GI) trail
is the most unpredictable course of events in all of horse racing. You can
begin the year with a solid favorite like Union Rags, but four weeks out, you
may end up with your number one horse as a horse that commenced the year with a
victory as a huge longshot. By Derby day, things could very easily change
drastically yet again.
I feel that my top five horses
all have a valid case to take the top spot, but I had to rank them somehow. If
they were all to be crossing a finish line, it would be a very tight blanket
finish.
Here is my top ten list of 2012
Kentucky Derby contenders as of April 10.
1. I’ll Have Another: Many
believed his dominant longshot victory in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (GII) to
be a fluke, but the colt impressed me immediately in that win. He first
appeared on my second Derby Top Ten and has been ranked in the top six ever
since, his highest ranking coming when he was ranked in fourth twice. This is a
colt who clearly loves to run, as he displayed in his Lewis victory. Though he
romped in the Lewis, his Santa Anita Derby (GI) triumph was even more
impressive, as the son of Flower Alley defeated a tougher field and completed
the nine-furlong race in its fastest clocking since Point Given’s victory in
2001. He outkicked the previously top-ranked Creative Cause, his long stride
allowing him to outduel the gray colt. He displayed great grit and
determination, as well as a clear love of running. This colt just seems to be
getting better and better and has every right to be number one.
2. Creative Cause: This
colt is still a brilliant runner and is bred extremely well for distance.
Though discouraging that he could not prevail in his battle with I’ll Have
Another, the colt – as usual – turned in an excellent performance. Nonetheless,
he was beat fair and square. It matters more in Louisville, however, and he
still certainly has a valid shot at a Derby triumph. For more on why he is a
top Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.
3. Union Rags: Though
disappointing that he lost the Florida Derby (GI), it is not discouraging. In
fact, I believe the colt and Julien Leparoux learned plenty from the loss.
Union Rags also proved that he is ready for more ground, as he found his best
stride in the final sixteenth before galloping out ahead of the others. It
could also be a good thing that he lost his final prep, as thirteen of the last
twenty Kentucky Derby contenders did not win their last race before the Derby. For
more on why Union Rags is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.
4. Take Charge Indy: With
A.P. Indy as his sire and the multiple grade one-winning daughter of Dehere,
Take Charge Lady, as his dam, Take Charge Indy’s pedigree suggests that Triple
Crown distances will not be an issue. However, his front-running style just
might. Nonetheless, with three-time Kentucky Derby-winning rider Calvin Borel
as his jockey, Take Charge Indy certainly has an advantage that the others
don’t.
5. Gemologist: There
are mixed feelings surrounding Gemologist’s victory in the Wood Memorial Stakes
(GI), but I believe they should mostly be positive feelings. The time was
certainly not spectacular and was over three seconds slower than I’ll Have
Another’s Santa Anita Derby win. Though Santa Anita is a much faster-playing
track than Aqueduct, the one-mile fraction in the Wood was over two seconds
slower than the final time of the Comely Stakes (GIII) for fillies over the same track.
Nonetheless, Gemologist showed a great amount of heart. He appeared to be
struggling in late stretch and it seemed as if Alpha would fly right past him,
but the son of Tiznow found another gear to hold off Alpha, exhibiting the
important quality of not wanting a horse to go past him. Being undefeated, the
colt needed a test in his final prep before the Derby and he got just that.
Don’t let the slow time of the Wood be too discouraging; this colt is capable
of producing a fast time – he did so in his dominant allowance win at
Gulfstream. He also has an advantage no other Derby contender has: two
victories at Churchill Downs. For more on why he is a top Kentucky Derby
contender, please click here.
6. Alpha: Though
he had had quite a victorious season prior to the Wood, I felt that he needed
to prove himself in New York’s premier Derby prep. He did just that, running
his heart out to finish second by a neck behind Gemologist. He rallied very
well but just could not get past Gemologist. I could criticize him for
this, but, as aforementioned, Gemologist seems to be the type of horse that
doesn’t want another to pass him. Nonetheless, Alpha ran a very good race on
Saturday and stamped himself as a serious Derby contender.
7. Bodemeister: He
has some growing up to do, but Saturday’s Arkansas Derby (GI) should be a good
learning experience for him. This race is expected to be an easier task for him
than the Santa Anita Derby would have been. He already has a tough test under
his belt from his runner-up finish in the San Felipe Stakes (GII), so it could
certainly be a plus that his race in the Arkansas Derby is expected to be
fairly easy, though he is facing tough stablemate Secret Circle. An easy start could be a great confidence boost and learning
experience for this improving Bob Baffert trainee. But, more than likely, he
will need a victory.
8. Dullahan: The
Blue Grass Stakes (GI) on Saturday will tell us much more about him, but this
half-brother to Mine That Bird has the right pedigree and what appears to be
the right racing talent to be a top Derby threat. Trainer Dale Romans has had
good performances in the past two Derbies, with a fourth-place finish by
Shackleford last year and a third-place result by Paddy O’Prado in 2010.
Perhaps this is his year. Still, Dullahan will have to run the race of his
life.
9. Hansen: As
I’ve said about this colt for quite a long time now, his talent cannot be
denied. However, his ability to get ten furlongs is doubtful. He may be
maturing, but like many others, we’ll know more after this weekend. In addition,
it could certainly be to his advantage that he is making his final prep before
the Derby over Polytrack, as he made his final prep for the Breeders’ Cup
Juvenile (GI) over Polytrack before taking the Juvenile at Churchill.
10. Went the Day Well: By
Derby runner-up Proud Citizen and out of a daughter of the two-time Breeders’
Cup Classic (GI)-winning Tiznow, this colt certainly seems to have the
bloodlines that will allow him to conquer the Derby distance. He, unlike his
connections’ Derby-winning Animal Kingdom, has already won over a dirt surface.
He is likely to make his final start for the Kentucky Derby in the Lexington
Stakes (GII) at Keeneland two weeks before the Run for the Roses.
Honorable Mentions:
Daddy Nose Best: Fairly
successful over grass courses as a two-year-old, Daddy Nose Best has proved
versatile as a sophomore, winning a graded stakes on the synthetic and on the
dirt. He has displayed much grit and an impressive stretch drive. The main worry
is that he has not faced the highest quality horses yet this year and when he
did on the grass at the Breeders’ Cup, he did not exactly fare extremely well.
Nonetheless, this Steve Asmussen trainee seems to be blossoming.
El Padrino: His
stretch rally in the Florida Derby was uninspiring, which is discouraging in
relation to his chances in the Kentucky Derby. Nonetheless, El Padrino is a
talented horse with a distance-based pedigree. Still, he needs to step it up.
Heavy Breathing: He is
quite inexperienced and that certainly could have played into his lackluster
third-place finish in the Spiral Stakes (GIII), but if his pedigree is any
suggestion, this colt has the potential to become a star. Should he get in one
more start that will allow him to acquire adequate graded stakes earnings (he
would likely need a victory), perhaps he could be a threat in the Derby. But,
like his stablemate El Padrino, he will need to step it up.
Hero of Order: I
don’t think he really wants to go much longer and I don’t know that he’s as
talented as so many others. In addition, since he is not nominated, he may not
make it into the Derby field anyways.
Howe Great: He
can run on both dirt and turf and though he has Sunday Silence as his
grandsire, his pedigree doesn’t give much more suggestion for distance. We’ll
learn more about him in the Blue Grass on Saturday.
Mark Valeski: It
has been declared that his lameness after the Louisiana Derby is not an issue.
He is a game horse, but he may be the type that tries hard every time but never
quite gets there. Nonetheless, he is tough.
Optimizer: He’ll
need to prove himself in Saturday’s Arkansas Derby, showing that his
impressive runner-up finish in the Rebel Stakes (GII) was not a fluke.
Prospective:
We’ll know much more about him after Saturday, when he takes on several top-class
horses in the Blue Grass. With a good performance, he could prove that he’s not
just a Tampa Bay Downs hit. But it must be taken into consideration that, even
if he runs a great race on Saturday, a good performance could be due to the
fact that the race is on the synthetic, as that is the surface he excelled over
as a juvenile.
Secret Circle: Still
a personal favorite of mine, this colt clearly has a will to win. He will face
a tougher field in the Arkansas Derby than he has in his past two starts,
but if he’s as tenacious as he has been and can live up to the stamina in his
pedigree, then Secret Circle could certainly turn in another good performance. This race
should tell us if he’s going to the Kentucky Derby or not.
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