2013 Belmont Stakes Field Analysis

Following the Kentucky Derby (GI), Orb was declared the next Triple Crown winner. But with a lackluster finish in the Preakness Stakes (GI) behind Oxbow, the colt’s hopes of ending the 35-year drought came to a sudden halt. This year’s installment of the Belmont Stakes (GI) will not be abuzz with Triple Crown excitement, but the “Test of the Champion” has drawn an admirable field nonetheless. Who will win the final leg of the 2013 Triple Crown?

Listed below are all of the horses entered to run in the 2013 Belmont Stakes, along with descriptions of their pedigrees in regards to stamina, track condition influences (there is a 60% of rain on Saturday), race records, final preparations, and my opinions of them. The runners are listed in post position order.

1. FRAC DADDY:

Pedigree in Regards to Stamina:
By Florida Derby winner (GI) Scat Daddy and out of a Skip Away mare, Frac Daddy’s pedigree appears to have a limit of ten furlongs, although he may gain support from his great-grandsires Nijinsky and Seattle Slew for longer distances.

If the Track is Sloppy:
Mr. Prospector appears in Frac Daddy’s pedigree twice and this colt’s sire, Scat Daddy, won his debut over a muddy track. However, his dam’s two attempts over a good track resulted in poor finishes. Frac Daddy was a clear second in his debut, which came over a muddy track, but was a distant sixteenth in the Kentucky Derby in the slop.

Race Record:
Frac Daddy garnered his first victory in his second start, which came at Churchill Downs. He turned in a game runner-up performance in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (GI) beneath the twin spires, but in his first start as a three-year-old, the Holy Bull Stakes (GIII), Frac Daddy finished sixth after grabbing a quarter. Following a poor seventh-place effort in the Florida Derby (GI), Frac Daddy ran second in the Arkansas Derby (GI) behind Overanalyze. In the Derby, he traveled wide prior to showing no kick down the lane.

Final Preparations:
Frac Daddy has trained well since the Derby, firing a trifecta of 47-and-change half-mile breezes at Churchill Downs, two of which were bullets. His most recent work was a bullet drill on May 31.

Conclusions:
Frac Daddy has formed a pattern of running a commendable race prior to finishing poorly in his subsequent start. For those who place weight on patterns, he is coming off a poor finish. However, he may be in over his head here.

2. FREEDOM CHILD:

Pedigree in Regards to Stamina: A grandson of Belmont Stakes winner A.P. Indy through his sire, Malibu Moon, Freedom Child is therefore a great-grandson of Triple Crown champion Seattle Slew. His dam is a daughter of Deputy Minister, a Canadian Hall of Famer that has appeared within the first three generations of numerous distance horses, including Curlin, Paynter, and Rags to Riches. He was a tremendous broodmare sire, producing the dams of many talented distance horses, including the multiple group one-winning Kane Hekili and Sarava, winner of the 2002 Belmont.

If the Track is Sloppy: A grandson of underestimated mud influence A.P. Indy, Freedom Child’s sire, Malibu Moon, has proven to be a top sire of mudders – including Freedom Child and Orb. His broodmare sire, Deputy Minister, is a major mud influence as well. Freedom Child is inbred 3 X 4 to Mr. Prospector – one of the most well-known mud influences of the breed.

Race Record: A poor eighth in his debut last fall, Freedom Child finished second behind Orb – and ahead of Revolutionary – in the second start of his career. Following a third-place effort in his sophomore debut, Freedom Child finally broke his maiden in March at Gulfstream Park, dominating a nine-furlong maiden special weight by 5 ¼ lengths. Unprepared at the start of the Wood Memorial Stakes (GI) in his following start, Freedom Child finished last but was declared a non-starter as a result of the unfair beginning. He rebounded next out in the Peter Pan Stakes (GII) over a sloppy track at Belmont, romping by 13 ¼ lengths.

Final Preparations: Freedom Child’s only work since the May 11 Peter Pan was a brisk five-furlong drill at Belmont Park on May 27, in which he worked eagerly.

Conclusions: As is the case for any horse coming off a dominant victory, especially one over a sloppy surface, there is a large chance of a bounce for Freedom Child in the Belmont. However, he is bred for the distance of the Belmont and, under the right circumstances, has shown impressive talent. He should not be ignored on Saturday.

3. OVERANALYZE:

Pedigree in Regards to Stamina:
A horse with a pedigree slightly questionable in relation to distance, Overanalyze’s sire – Dixie Union – has been considered to not be useful in siring distance horses. However, his son Union Rags won last year’s Belmont. Despite appearing to be rather lacking in outstanding stakes success, Overanalyze’s tail female line traces back to Muzzie II, a mare imported from Great Britain in 1931 that produced the multiple stakes-winning Shot Put – a gelding that equaled and set numerous track records at various distances, including 2 ¾ miles and 2 ¼ miles.

If the Track is Sloppy:
On an off-track, Overanalyze should benefit from being inbred 4 X 4 to Mr. Prospector. The grandsire of his dam, Private Account, was bred for mud, being by Damascus and out of a Buckpasser mare. Yet, he finished eleventh in the slop in the Derby.

Race Record:
Overanalyze contested in four graded stakes events as a juvenile, capturing two of them – including the Remsen Stakes (GII) by a nose over Normandy Invasion. In his first two starts as a three-year-old, Overanalyze ran a poor fifth in the Gotham Stakes (GIII) behind Vyjack prior to an easy win in the Arkansas Derby (GI). But in the Kentucky Derby, he finished a weak eleventh.

Final Preparations:
Since the Derby, Overanalyze has posted three works, the most recent of which was a 48.01 half-mile drill at Belmont on June 2.

Conclusions:
Overanalyze has never won consecutive races, having formed a win-lose-win-lose pattern. This could be a good omen for the colt, as he is entering the Belmont off a loss. However, he will need to step it up to win Saturday.

4. GIANT FINISH:

Pedigree in Regards to Stamina:
This colt is a member of the first crop of Frost Giant – a grade one-winning son of Giant’s Causeway that won up to ten furlongs – and is out of a Hickman Creek – a son of 1977 Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew – mare.

If the Track is Sloppy:
Sired by Frost Giant, a horse that was primarily raced over the turf, Giant Finish is inbred 4 X 3 to Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew, who can be found in the pedigree of many mudders. The broodmare sire of his sire, Gone West, has been an influential mud sire. Giant Finish was a poor fifth in his first sloppy try and tenth in the Derby over a track of the same condition, but rallied in a decent manner in the latter.

Race Record:
Winner of his debut, Giant Finish finished fifth in the Damon Runyon at Aqueduct in the second start of his career prior to taking an allowance optional claiming event at the same track. Second in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes over Turfway Park’s Polytrack, Giant Finish then ran third in the Spiral Stakes (GIII). As the second-longest shot in the field in the Derby, Giant Finish appeared to be traveling backward around the far turn, but suddenly, he picked up the pace and was able to close steadily for a tenth-place effort that was far beyond his odds.

Final Preparations:
He has turned in three half-mile works since the Derby, the most recent of which came at Belmont Park on June 4.

Conclusions:
Giant Finish appears to be outclassed here.

5. ORB:

Pedigree in Regards to Stamina:
This colt is clearly bred for distance. A grandson of A.P. Indy through his sire, Malibu Moon, Orb is therefore a great-grandson of Triple Crown hero Seattle Slew. Orb is a half-brother to Cause of Freedom, an earner of more than $100,000 who never won at a distance shorter than nine furlongs and won up to eleven furlongs. This colt is from a very strong tail female line, hailing from the same female family as the great Ruffian.

If the Track is Sloppy:
The Kentucky Derby winner is clearly proven over off-going, having won the Run for the Roses by 2 ½ lengths over a sloppy track. His grandsire, A.P. Indy, is hidden mud influence and his sire’s broodmare sire is top mud influence in Mr. Prospector, a horse Orb is inbred to 3 X 4. The sire of Orb’s dam sire is Fappiano and the colt also traces back to Damascus, both of which are major off-track influences. His fifth generation is also home to the influential mud horses Buckpasser and In Reality. Orb’s dam, Lady Liberty, was third – beaten less than 2 lengths – in one of her two starts over a sloppy track and won an allowance over a good track. In her other try over an off-track, she finished last of five, but her loss was more of a matter of being outclassed than not handling the track.

Race Record:
Orb turned in steady efforts in his first three starts but did not win until his fourth race. Since then however, he has been spectacular on nearly every occasion, winning three races at Gulfstream Park this year, including the Fountain of Youth Stakes (GII) and the Florida Derby (GI) prior to capturing the Kentucky Derby with authority. Triple Crown hopes were dashed with his lackluster fourth-place finish in the Preakness, although he did make a slight rally in that classic.

Final Preparations:
Orb’s flashy but quick work prior to the Preakness may have been a contributing factor to his loss, but his final work for the Belmont was more than a second slower, hopefully conserving some of his energy. A great work horse, Orb finished his four-furlong drill very strongly, completing it in 48.30 on June 2.

Conclusions:
Orb has a great chance to rebound on Saturday and, having spent much time at Belmont Park, has a home track advantage. He is bred to be successful at long distances and appears to be the class of this field.

Orb
Photo by Brittlan Wall

6. INCOGNITO:

Pedigree in Regards to Stamina:
This colt’s sire is Belmont winner A.P. Indy, son of Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew and sire of Belmont Stakes victress Rags to Riches. Perhaps boasting the most well-known parents in this field, his dam is the multiple grade one-winning Octave – who won up to ten furlongs.

If the Track is Sloppy:
A.P. Indy is a hidden mud influence and through him, Incognito is a grandson of Seattle Slew, who can be found in the pedigree of many mudders. Octave was second to Rags to Riches in the 2007 Kentucky Oaks (GI) over a muddy track and a fast-closing third over a very sloppy surface in that year’s Breeders’ Cup Distaff (GI). Her sire, Unbridled’s Song, captured the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI) in the mud and is from the Fappiano sire line, which has proven to be very effective in the pedigrees of mudders. Incognito’s second start resulted in a third-place finish over a sloppy track, but he was fifth in his most recent start, the Peter Pan Stakes (GII) – contested upon a sloppy track at Belmont Park.

Race Record:
Although the initial three starts of Incognito’s career resulted in losses, he showed promise in these races, rallying well despite troubled trips prior to galloping out impressively. He broke his maiden in March at Aqueduct, remaining forwardly placed prior to drawing off to score by 3 ¼ lengths. The winning margin of just a nose in his subsequent start, an allowance optional claiming, may appear unattractive, but he won the race in very game fashion following a tumultuous trip. Incognito did not seem to care for the sloppy track in the Peter Pan, finishing fifth, but he found his best stride late, galloping out ahead of the winner to indicate that added distance will be to his advantage.

Final Preparations:
Incognito has recorded a pair of half-mile works since the Peter Pan, the most recent of which was a good 48.25-second clocking over Belmont’s training oval.

Conclusions:
This well-bred individual may be overlooked on Saturday, but has shown promise and although he is far from a likely winner, he could very well turn in a noteworthy performance.

7. OXBOW:

Pedigree in Regards to Stamina:
This colt is a three-quarters brother to Haskell Invitational (GI, 9F) winner and Belmont Stakes (GI, 12F) runner-up Paynter, being by Breeders' Cup Classic (GI, 10F) winner Awesome Again and out of a full sister to two-time Breeders' Cup Classic hero Tiznow. His broodmare sire is Deputy Minister, who, as aforementioned, is a Canadian Hall of Famer that has appeared within the first three generations of numerous distance horses, including Curlin, Paynter, and Rags to Riches. He was a tremendous broodmare sire, producing the dams of many talented distance horses, including the multiple group one-winning Kane Hekili and Sarava, winner of the 2002 Belmont..

If the Track is Sloppy:
This colt’s sire, Awesome Again, was a winner in the slop and is a son of mud influence Deputy Minister. His broodmare sire, Cee’s Tizzy, is a hidden mud influence, being a grandson of In Reality – a major force in the pedigree of mudders. Also, like In Reality, Mr. Prospector – known for having a large impact on horses in the slop – resides in Oxbow’s third generation. Oxbow finished a good sixth in the Derby, but may have struggled a bit with the sloppy surface.

Race Record:
Pulled up and vanned off in his debut, Oxbow turned in a pair of steady performances in maiden special weights prior to breaking his maiden by a large margin at Churchill Downs. Shipped west for the CashCall Futurity (GI), Oxbow finished fourth to culminate his juvenile campaign. His three-year-old year began with a romp in the LeComte Stakes (GIII) at the Fair Grounds, which preceded good efforts but losses in the Risen Star Stakes (GII), Rebel Stakes (GII), Arkansas Derby (GI), and Kentucky Derby (GI). However, he rebounded in the Preakness, receiving an easy lead and holding clear to score by 1 ¾ lengths.

Final Preparations:
Oxbow has posted one work since the Preakness, going six furlongs in 1:14.60 at Churchill Downs on May 30.

Conclusions:
Oxbow, though gifted, is less likely to be the lone speed like he has been in all of his victories.

Oxbow
Photo by Brittlan Wall

8. MIDNIGHT TABOO:

Pedigree in Regards to Stamina:
Although his sire, Langfuhr, was a champion sprinter that has produced runners of the same type, he has also sired the likes of Wando, winner of the 2003 Canadian Triple Crown – which presents races of the same distances as the American Triple Crown. Other successful distance horses sired by Langfuhr include Jambalaya – a multiple grade one winner who won at or beyond ten furlongs on several occasions; Interpatation – a grade one winner at twelve furlongs; Marlang – a Canadian classic winner at twelve furlongs; and Gangbuster – a stakes winner at thirteen furlongs that was also stakes-placed at fourteen furlongs. This colt’s unraced dam, Hot Red, is a daughter of Kentucky Derby and Belmont winner Thunder Gulch.

If the Track is Sloppy:
His sire, Langfuhr, played the role of runner-up over a sloppy track in his second race, but was fifth in the Kennedy Road Breeders’ Cup Handicap contested over a muddy surface. His unraced dam’s sire, Thunder Gulch, placed in a graded stakes over a muddy track. Through his dam, Midnight Taboo is a great-great-grandson of the major mud influences Mr. Prospector and In Reality. Last out, Midnight Taboo finished second over a muddy track.

Race Record:
Second in his debut, which was also Oxbow’s debut (in which the Preakness winner was pulled up and vanned off), last August at Saratoga, Midnight Taboo did not race again until this April, winning a maiden special weight at Aqueduct. His most recent start was a runner-up effort in an allowance optional claiming event at Belmont.

Final Preparations:
Midnight Taboo has had three works since his last race, his final drill for the Belmont occurring in a five-furlong breeze with a final clocking of 1:00.88.

Conclusions:
Having only raced three times, never having started beyond a mile and one-sixteenth, going a mile and one-half at the highest level in just his fourth start seems to be asking too much of Midnight Taboo.

9. REVOLUTIONARY:

Pedigree in Regards to Stamina:
A son of the late champion War Pass, Revolutionary is out of a grade one-winning daughter of Belmont winner A.P. Indy that was successful at ten furlongs. Notably, the colt is a direct descendant of the great broodmare La Troienne, who is found in the tail female line of the Derby winners Go for Gin, Sea Hero, Smarty Jones, and Super Saver. Although the top side of this colt’s pedigree leans toward speed, his dam side should give him stamina support.

If the Track is Sloppy:
His sire, War Pass, was a dominant winner in the 2007 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI), which was contested over a sloppy track. His broodmare sire, A.P. Indy, is an underestimated mud influence and his third generation is home to Mr. Prospector. However, his dam ran poorly in her only start over the slop. Revolutionary ran well over the sloppy surface of the Kentucky Derby, finishing third.

Race Record:
Despite encountering much bad luck throughout his career, Revolutionary has won three of his seven starts. Catching my eye with his debut, a third-place effort at Saratoga, Revolutionary did not break his maiden until his fourth start, although he had finished no worse than third prior to then. He won the two starts following his maiden: the Withers Stakes (GIII) and the Louisiana Derby (GII), gutting out a win in both of those races despite traffic trouble. He rallied well in the Kentucky Derby, but could not match Orb’s kick and finished third.

Final Preparations:
Revolutionary has completed a pair of works since the Derby, the most recent of which was a solid half-mile breeze at Belmont Park on June 2.

Conclusions:
A gutsy horse, Revolutionary seems to be a formidable competitor. Although the top side of his pedigree provides cause for concern, the bottom half of his pedigree should aid him in running well at twelve furlongs. He is certainly one of the top contenders in the Belmont.

Revolutionary
Photo by Brittlan Wall

10. WILL TAKE CHARGE:

Pedigree in Regards to Stamina:
One of the most beautifully bred horses in the race, Will Take Charge is a son of top sire Unbridled's Song and the grade one-winning mare Take Charge Lady, which makes him a half-brother to winner of the 2012 Florida Derby (GI), Take Charge Indy. However, this pedigree sets him up to weaken beyond nine furlongs.

If the Track is Sloppy:
Although Will Take Charge is from the Fappiano sire line and is inbred to that mud influence 3 X 4 and is a great-grandson of Deputy Minister, he was a poor sixth over a sloppy track in the Southwest Stakes (GIII). However, he performed well in the Derby despite having to forcefully check at the top of the stretch and rallied well over the mud to finish eighth.

Race Record:
Will Take Charge's first victory came in his second start. He then finished last in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (GII) at Churchill Downs prior to finishing second against weaker company in the Remington Springboard Mile Stakes at Remington Park. He began 2013 with a win in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park. Will Take Charge did not take a liking to the mud in the Southwest Stakes (GIII), finishing sixth. He then resurfaced with a game win over stablemate Oxbow in the Rebel Stakes (GII) prior to training up to the Derby following his victory. He was given no chance in the Derby after being forced to check at the top of the stretch, but ran on well to finish eighth. He finished a poor seventh in the Preakness following an awkward break from the gate.

Final Preparations:
In his only work since the Preakness, Will Take Charge completed six furlongs in a slow 1:15.80 at Churchill Downs on May 30.

Conclusions:
Will Take Charge seems to be a horse in need of a confidence booster and the Belmont Stakes does not seem to be a perfect opportunity for that, as he has not fared well in the previous Triple Crown races and he is not thoroughly bred to thrive over the twelve-furlong distance of the Belmont.

11. VYJACK:

Pedigree in Regards to Stamina:
Vyjack's pedigree does not give him much hope for being successful at classic distances, as he is a son of Into Mischief and out of a mare that has failed to produce horses capable of winning at long distances.

If the Track is Sloppy:
This colt’s grandsire, Harlan’s Holiday, won a grade three over a “wet fast” track and in his fourth and fifth generations, you can find the names of the likes of Blushing Groom, His Majesty, and Mr. Prospector. Vyjack captured his stakes debut by 5 ¾ lengths over a sloppy track, but performed very poorly in the Derby over a track of the same manner.

Race Record:
Vyjack won the first four starts of his career, including impressive victories in the Traskwood Stakes and Gotham Stakes (GIII). In his final start before the Derby, the gelding finished third in the Wood Memorial Stakes (GI) behind Verrazano and Normandy Invasion. Breaking from the outside post in the Run for the Roses, Vyjack weakened early on in the race, finishing eighteenth of nineteen.

Final Preparations:
It is worrisome that Vyjack has only turned in one work since his poor finish in the Derby, and a weak work at that. He completed six furlongs in 1:12.11 at Aqueduct on May 28 and though this time is rather average, this work was denoted as “handily” – meaning he was pushed throughout the drill.

Conclusions:
A win in the Belmont by Vyjack would be very surprising, as – although he is talented – Vyjack is better suited to shorter distances and may still be fatigued from his start in the Kentucky Derby.

12. PALACE MALICE:

Pedigree in Regards to Stamina: Being a son of two-time Horse of the Year Curlin – who finished second, beaten a head, in the 2007 Belmont – and a Royal Anthem – who won at twelve furlongs on multiple occasions – mare, long distances should be right up this one’s alley.

If the Track is Sloppy:
His sire, Curlin, was a dominant winner of the Breeders’ Cup Classic (GI) in the slop and is a grandson of both Mr. Prospector and Deputy Minister. Palace Malice’s dam traces back to Relaunch, a major mud influence. Palace Malice finished a good second over a sloppy track at Gulfstream Park earlier this year and although his twelfth-place finish over a track of the same manner in the Kentucky Derby may be off-putting, he received a nightmare trip, essentially turning into a runaway after being equipped with blinkers for the first time.

Race Record:
Palace Malice broke his maiden impressively in his second start and after a runner-up effort in an allowance optional claiming event at Gulfstream Park this January, Palace Malice advanced to graded stakes company and hasn’t looked back since. The colt ran a very good third in the Risen Star Stakes (GII) prior to finishing seventh in the Louisiana Derby (GII), a race that can be thrown out for Palace Malice, as the colt had no chance after encountering severe traffic trouble. His last race before the Derby was a noteworthy runner-up finish in the Blue Grass Stakes (GI) over Keeneland’s Polytrack. A line can be drawn through the Derby for Palace Malice, as he is much more talented than the outlandish journey suggests.

Final Preparations:
Since the Derby, Palace Malice has been working extremely well. He has recorded three works at Belmont Park, the most recent of which was a half-mile breeze in 47.56.

Conclusions:
It is certainly to his advantage that Palace Malice has a good race at Belmont under his belt, as well as several terrific workouts. The colt has shown much potential in the past and should benefit from the removal of blinkers. He should not be forgotten in Saturday’s race.

Palace Malice
Photo by Brittlan Wall

13. UNLIMITED BUDGET:

Pedigree in Regards to Stamina:
Striving to become the first filly to win the Belmont since fellow Todd Pletcher-trained Rags to Riches, Unlimited Budget’s pedigree seems to give her a limit of ten furlongs. A daughter of Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense, Unlimited Budget is out of a stakes-placed daughter of Valid Appeal – a stallion that produced many nine furlong winners but few that won beyond that distance.

If the Track is Sloppy:
This filly’s sire, Street Sense, lost all of his starts over a sloppy surface, although he never finished worse than fourth in such a situation. The sire of her broodmare sire is In Reality, one of the best mud influences in the breed. Unlimited Budget has never raced over a muddy surface.

Race Record:
Heading into the Kentucky Oaks (GI) with a flawless race record, Unlimited Budget had handled every test thrown in her direction perfectly. A graded stakes winner in New York as a two-year-old, Unlimited Budget won both of her graded stakes preps at the Fair Grounds this year. Her undefeated record was marred in the Oaks when she finished third, but she was defeated by just 2 ½ lengths.

Final Preparations:
All three of Unlimited Budget’s works since the Oaks have taken place at Belmont Park and her most recent was a bullet work on June 2, in which she traveled four furlongs in 47.55 seconds.

Conclusions:
Only three fillies have won the Belmont Stakes and each of them showed much more brilliance prior to their triumphs in the Test of the Champion than Unlimited Budget has. Although very talented, her pedigree does not support her as greatly as most of her male competitors and she does not seem to possess the prowess females Thoroughbreds need against males.

14. GOLDEN SOUL:

Pedigree in Regards to Stamina:
A son of Canadian champion Perfect Soul and out of a Mr. Prospector mare that has been primarily successful with runners under nine furlongs, Golden Soul’s ability to be successful at classic distances is questionable with a quick glance at his pedigree. However, his grandsire is the distance-influencing Sadler’s Wells and his second dam was a group one winner beyond ten furlongs.

If the Track is Sloppy:
Although Golden Soul’s sire, Perfect Soul, was a turf horse, the colt’s broodmare sire is Mr. Prospector – one of the top mud influences in the breed. The colt finished a good second in the Derby over a sloppy track.

Race Record:
After his maiden score in his second career start, Golden Soul was second behind Oxbow in the LeComte Stakes (GIII). He then finished sixth in the Risen Star Stakes (GII) and fourth in the Louisiana Derby (GII), both of which were somewhat lackluster performances. He outran his high odds in the Kentucky Derby, closing to finish second.

Final Preparations:
Golden Soul exited the Derby a tired horse and has only had a single work since, going five furlongs in 1:00.40 at Churchill Downs.

Conclusions:
Golden Soul will need to prove the Derby was not a fluke but may have difficulty doing so, as he appears to still be taxed from his effort in the Run for the Roses.

A field divided between contenders and pretenders, Orb is my top selection in the 145^th Belmont Stakes. However, I also expect good performances from Revolutionary and Freedom Child. I will also not throw out Oxbow or Palace Malice. My longshot selection is Incognito.