Countdown to Derby Day: 13 Days
The Kentucky Derby (GI) closes
in on us quickly and before we know it, we are keeping our eyes focused on the
starting gate nestled at the top of the stretch at Churchill Downs, waiting for
a large field of high quality three-year-old Thoroughbreds to burst out of the
gate to launch the greatest two minutes in sports. Though any of the horses can
win, there is typically only a select few that spectators and experts believe
have a legitimate chance to win. However, in 2012, a large amount of the horses
pointing towards the Derby seem to have a realistic chance to triumph in the
Run for the Roses. Though this makes it very difficult to rank them, it
suggests that this year’s rendition of the Kentucky Derby will be one for the
ages.
I feel as if any of
my top seven could be ranked first and that each horse on this list has a valid
chance at winning. The addition of Trinniberg, a sprinter, to the mix should
benefit many of the horses who come from off the pace, but may harm the horses
who prefer to be on the lead. This certainly played a role in the changes on
this week’s list. The final works will also play a huge role, but when it comes
down to it, we will not know until about two minutes after these Thoroughbreds
break from the gate at Churchill Downs.
Here is my top ten list of 2012
Kentucky Derby contenders as of April 22:
1. Union Rags: He is
full of sheer brilliance and when he’s on the top of his game, he is awfully
difficult to defeat. Of course, he will need to run the best race he’s ever run
in the Derby, but he clearly has the talent to run a tremendous race. This
Michael Matz trainee, like Barbaro, made his penultimate work for the Kentucky
Derby at Keeneland. In this work, the colt breezed a half-mile in an impressive
time of 47.20 seconds. The work (which can be viewed here) is made even more
remarkable by how effortlessly he moved. In fact, the work looked much slower
than it actually was. He will soon ship to Churchill Downs for his final
preparations, including his last breeze before the Derby, which will be a more
serious work than Friday’s. He does have an advantage over many contenders
regarding Churchill – he has already performed well over its dirt surface. For
more on why he is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.
2. I’ll Have Another: On
this list, he is just an extremely scant nose behind Union Rags. Already a very
talented horse, he seems to just be getting better and better. His six-furlong
work on Thursday at Hollywood Park went very well, in which trainer Doug
O’Neill remarked that the colt grew stronger as he went along. He is expected
to ship to Churchill Downs a week before the Derby, which is a shorter amount
of time than I would like to see, but still gives the colt a decent amount of
time to adapt to the Churchill surface. For more on why he is a top Kentucky
Derby contender, please click here.
3. Creative Cause: Bodemeister
may have ran the most impressive race on the Derby trail this year, but
Creative Cause defeated him prior to that race. Creative Cause is a horse who
tries hard every time and as a result of his determination, he has not finished
out of the money. He also comes with the package of a top Derby prospect:
talent, a noteworthy performance over the Churchill dirt surface, the ability
to settle off the pace, good acceleration, and a pedigree full of stamina. For
more on why he is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.
4. Dullahan: Derby
pedigree: check. Racing talent: check. Ability to come off the pace: check.
Decent performances over Churchill dirt: check. Extra training time at
Churchill: check. Improvement: check. Capable connections: check. Dullahan has
everything you could want in a Kentucky Derby winner and certainly has a very reasonable
chance to win, though he may be better on turf and synthetic. Like the other
horses in the top four, Dullahan should benefit from the addition of
Trinniberg. For more on why he is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please click
here.
5. Gemologist:
Normally, an undefeated colt with two wins at Churchill Downs would be ranked
first on this list. Gemologist is a member of my “Super Six,” or my top six
horses on this list that could all be ranked first, but since this Kentucky
Derby is shaping up to be immensely competitive, he is ranked fifth. Not only
is he capable of dominant victories, but he has also proven that he can dig in
and prevail because of his heart as well. Though not all of his times are
spectacular, he has made it clear that he can post quick times. With a pedigree
that will also back him up, Gemologist possesses many important qualities for a
Derby prospect. Though he may be slightly affected by the addition of
Trinniberg, he is capable of rating off the pace, so Trinninberg should have
much less of an influence on him than horses such as Bodemeister or Hansen. For
more on why he is a top Derby contender, please click here.
6. Bodemeister: It
cannot be denied that his Arkansas Derby (GI) victory was absolutely brilliant
and breathtaking. Though his wins have come in races in which he set the pace,
Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith has expressed that he believes his mount is
capable of rating. He will need to do so, especially with the addition of
Trinniberg – a horse who sets quick fractions. If Bodemeister cannot learn to
settle, his chances could certainly be harmed by the presence of Trinniberg. By
Empire Maker and out of a Storm Cat mare, Bodemeister should have no problem
with the Derby distance. Bodemeister could very well be ranked first,
especially considering he will train over the Churchill surface longer than
most Derby contenders, but instead, I rank him in a sixth that would earn him a
position at the top if the group of Derby hopefuls this year wasn’t as deep as
it is and if Trinniberg had not joined the mix. For more on why he is a top Kentucky
Derby contender, please click here.
7. Alpha: A
very talented colt in his own right, Alpha is certainly a legitimate Derby
competitor. Though his only start at Churchill Downs was a very poor finish in
the Breeders’ Cup Juvneile (GI), in which he finished behind many top Derby
candidates, it is believed that he bled in that race. He has turned in nothing
but good performances this season and is coming off an impressive second-place
finish behind Gemologist in the Wood Memorial Stakes (GI). I do find it a bit
discouraging, however, that he will make most of his Derby preparations at
Belmont Park and will not ship to Churchill until April 30 and that he missed a
bit of training time due to a laceration. I would prefer for him to have a
longer amount of time to adapt to the Churchill dirt. Nonetheless, this colt is bred through and through for the Derby and just may be very underestimated. He will also benefit from the addition of Trinniberg. Do not forget about Alpha on Derby Day; he is an extremely talented horse.
8. Take Charge Indy: Both
of his parents are grade one winners capable of winning at a mile and
one-eighth or longer. His sire, the great A.P. Indy, was not only capable of
winning the Belmont Stakes (GI, 12F) and Breeders’ Cup Classic (GI, 10F), but
he was also capable of producing horses who could win at the same distances as
well. Many believe, however, that Take Charge Indy may have distance
limitations, partially because of his front-running style. But he does have an
advantage that the others don’t: three-time Derby-winning jockey Calvin Borel.
9. Went the Day Well: Taking
the same route as his stablemate, 2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom, to
the Run for the Roses, Went the Day Well does have something Animal Kingdom
didn’t: a victory over dirt. The way he strode home in the Vinery Racing Spiral
Stakes (GIII) – the same race Animal Kingdom won before triumphing in the Derby
– was very impressive. He also worked well at Keeneland on Saturday, completing
six furlongs in 1:14.40 despite dreary conditions. He will ship to Churchill
soon.
10. Daddy Nose Best: He
has definitely blossomed and is coming off of two impressive performances.
However, he has not exactly fared well against the toughest competitors. But he
does have experience over the Churchill dirt and is a great stretch runner.
Honorable Mentions:
El Padrino: He’s
gritty and talented, but his fourth-place finish in the Florida Derby (GI) was
rather flat. Though it was not a spectacular performance, El Padrino has
already proven that he is a gifted colt. Yet he seems to be more deserving than some of
the horses that may keep him from getting into the Derby due to graded stakes
earnings.
Hansen: He is a brilliant colt,
but he has the terrible problem of too frequently going to the lead and setting
blazing fractions without rating. This is something that will likely harm him
in the Derby if he does so. Though many other horses have pedigrees that
suggest more capability of getting the Derby distance than his does, Hansen may
have enough stamina in his bloodlines to allow him to be victorious at ten
furlongs. But most importantly, he will have to find the ability to settle in
order to be triumphant at a mile and one-quarter.
Mark Valeski: He is
clearly a hard-trying colt, but there is the worry that he’s a colt that tries
hard each time but never prevails. Nonetheless, he could certainly be a
profitable horse for handicappers on Derby Day.
Sabercat: His
dull performance in the Rebel Stakes (GIII) may very well be a throw-out race,
but even his third-place finish in the Arkansas Derby implies that he will have
to run the best race he’s ever run to pull off a victory in the Kentucky Derby.
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