Preakness Stakes 2013: If the Track Is Muddy

Two weeks ago, a sloppy track for the Kentucky Derby (GI) was inevitable. The rain gushed from the sky all day long, transforming the fast dirt track at Churchill Downs into an oval of mud. This off-going was not an issue for Orb, who would win the Run for the Roses in a seemingly effortless manner, but did play a role in the poor performances of other quality athletes. Among these athletes were Goldencents and Itsmyluckyday, who pursued the Preakness Stakes (GI) two weeks later with hopes of encountering a fairer racing surface.

But dark clouds hang over Old Hilltop today, haunting the also-rans of the Kentucky Derby. Although Weather.com currently reports that there is no chance of rain at post time (6:20 P.M. EDT), a small amount of rain has fallen upon Pimlico throughout the day and it could rain more prior to post.

Should it rain more, causing an off-track, how will each of the Preakness contenders fare? Listed below are all of the horses entered to run in today’s Preakness, along with descriptions of the mud influences in their pedigrees and their previous runs in the mud, if they exist. The runners are listed in post position order. For my main analysis of the Preakness field, please click here.

1. Orb: The Kentucky Derby winner is clearly proven over off-going, having won the Run for the Roses by 2 ½ lengths over a sloppy track. His grandsire, A.P. Indy, is hidden mud influence and his sire’s broodmare sire is top mud influence in Mr. Prospector, a horse Orb is inbred to 3 X 4. The sire of Orb’s dam sire is Fappiano and the colt also traces back to Damascus, both of which are major off-track influences. His fifth generation is also home to the influential mud horses Buckpasser and In Reality. Orb’s dam, Lady Liberty, was third – beaten less than 2 lengths – in one of her two starts over a sloppy track and won an allowance over a good track. In her other try over an off-track, she finished last of five, but her loss was more of a matter of being outclassed than not handling the track.

Should the track become muddy or sloppy, Orb should have an even greater advantage.

Orb
Photo by Brittlan Wall

2. Goldencents: This colt’s grandsire, Harlan’s Holiday, won a grade three over a “wet fast” track and his dam’s grandsire, Forty Niner, has proven to be rather impactful in the pedigrees of mud horses, being a son of Mr. Prospector. In his fifth generation, you can find His Majesty, a strong mud influence.

Goldencents’ pedigree does not scream mud and neither does his performance in the Kentucky Derby. On the first Saturday of May, Goldencents did not take to the track and was eased as he finished seventeenth.

3. Titletown Five: This longshot is a grandson of Cee’s Tizzy through his sire, Tiznow. Cee’s Tizzy is a hidden mud influence, being a grandson of In Reality – a major force in the pedigree of mudders. This colt’s dam won a pair of group ones in the mud.

Titletown Five contested over a sloppy track in his second start, in which he finished a weak fourth.

4. Departing: This colt’s sire, War Front, was a romping winner in the slop when breaking his maiden. Major mud influence Fappiano is the sire of War Front’s broodmare sire. Mr. Prospector, one of the most renowned mud influences in the breed, appears three times in the first five generations of Departing’s pedigree, including through Forty Niner.

Departing has a strong mud pedigree but has only competed over a fast track.

Departing
Photo by Brittlan Wall

5. Mylute: This colt is bred very well for the mud, as his sire Midnight Lute was not only a winner of the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (GI) in the slop, but Mylute is a descendant of the Fappiano sire line. The presence of Deputy Minister on the top side of his pedigree is beneficial, as is his 5 X 4 inbreeding to top mud influence In Reality.

Mylute’s only start over an off-track was in the Kentucky Derby, in which he closed to finish a strong fifth.

6. Oxbow: This colt’s sire, Awesome Again, was a winner in the slop and is a son of mud influence Deputy Minister. His broodmare sire, Cee’s Tizzy, is a hidden mud influence, being a grandson of In Reality – a major force in the pedigree of mudders. Also, like In Reality, Mr. Prospector – known for having a large impact on horses in the slop – resides in Oxbow’s third generation.

Oxbow finished a good sixth in the Derby, but may have struggled a bit with the sloppy surface.

7. Will Take Charge: Although Will Take Charge is from the Fappiano sire line and is inbred to that mud influence 3 X 4 and is a great-grandson of Deputy Minister, he was a poor sixth over a sloppy track in the Southwest Stakes (GIII). However, a he performed well in the Derby despite having to forcefully check at the top of the stretch and rallied well over the mud to finish eighth.

8. Govenor Charlie: Like Mylute, Govenor Charlie is a son of Midnight Lute – winner of the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (GI) in the slop and a descendant of the Fappiano sire line. He is inbred 4 X 4 to mud influence Deputy Minister and 5 X 5 to Mr. Prospector.

Govenor Charlie has only raced on a fast track.

Govenor Charlie
Photo by Brittlan Wall

9. Itsmyluckyday: His sire, Lawyer Ron, broke his maiden on a sloppy track and his dam, a granddaughter of Seattle Slew, was a dominant winner over the slop in the biggest win of her career. Itsmyluckyday’s granddam is a daughter of Crafty Prospector, a mud influence sired by Mr. Prospector.

But despite being a son of two horses that won in the mud, as well as a horse that garnered his first stakes win over a sloppy track in a race that was taken off the turf, Itsmyluckyday performed poorly over the off-going in the Kentucky Derby, finishing fifteenth after taking no liking to the sloppy surface.

My top three picks of Orb, Departing, and Mylute will remain the same if the surface becomes muddy or sloppy. However, I will more greatly doubt Goldencents if that is the situation. Orb continues to be the horse to beat.

2013 Preakness Stakes Field Analysis

All eyes will be on Orb this Saturday at Old Hilltop, where he will attempt to win the Preakness Stakes (GI) in order to continue his bid for the Triple Crown. The excitement of the Kentucky Derby (GI) has been transformed into the anticipation of Orb’s Triple Crown run. # rivals have aligned to face the Derby victor with the goal of dethroning him before he even reaches Belmont, including a horse he grew up with in Departing. Will it be Orb, or will he be taken down by one of his competitors? Tune in to NBC at 4:30 Eastern Time to find out!

Listed below are all of the horses entered to run in the 2013 Preakness Stakes, along with descriptions of their recent racing and training endeavors, as well as the chances I believe they each have. The entrants are listed in post position order.

1. ORB: The Derby winner has been unbeatable this season, winning all four of his starts this year. His Derby win came in a rather easy manner, having come off the pace prior to going wide to score by a going-away 2 ½ lengths. He can close into a slow, moderate, or fast pace and also does not have to close from far off the pace. This versatility will be a major advantage for him.

Orb’s final work for the Preakness, like his final work for the Derby, was a scintillating move that left his trainer, Hall of Fame conditioner Shug McGaughey, awestruck. This bodes very well for the Derby winner, although the work came at Belmont and not Pimlico.

The last horse to win the Preakness from the rail was Tabasco Cat in 1994, who was number two in the program but broke from the rail due to a coupled entry. Although the rail post is not perfectly ideal, this is not the Derby – breaking from the rail at Pimlico is a less uncomfortable position than at Churchill and there will be less horse and jockey combinations jostling for position. In addition, Orb won the Fountain of Youth Stakes (GII) from the rail this February. A horse that has been on an extraordinary road of improvement, Orb is my top selection in the Preakness. Read about Orb in greater detail here.

Orb
Photo by Brittlan Wall

2. GOLDENCENTS: Goldencents’ seventeenth-place finish in the Derby, in which he was eased, was incredibly disappointing off his Santa Anita Derby (GI) triumph. Whether it was the sloppy track or the distance that resulted in such a poor effort from the colt is a mystery, but should the track conditions be fairer at Pimlico on Saturday, Goldencents will have a better chance. A colt who is solely galloping up to the Preakness, Goldencents is a classy individual, but it would require the race of a lifetime for him to win the Preakness. Read about Goldencents in greater detail here.

Goldencents
Photo by Brittlan Wall

3. TITLETOWN FIVE: This colt took four attempts to break his maiden, even defeating Orb in the Derby winner’s debut. But Titletown Five’s maiden victory is his only win to date. Following a runner-up effort in the Gazebo Stakes at Oaklawn Park, Titletown Five was a poor ninth in the Louisiana Derby (GII) prior to finishing fourth in the Derby Trial Stakes (GIII). He appears outclassed here.

4. DEPARTING: Following an easy win in his debut, Departing won an allowance optional claiming event in an even more effortless manner at the Fair Grounds. Making his stakes debut in the Texas Heritage Stakes at Sam Houston Race Park, Departing stalked the pace prior to drawing off to a 2 ¾-length triumph. His first graded stakes attempt resulted in a third-place effort behind eventual third-place Derby finisher, Revolutionary, and fifth-place Derby finisher, Mylute, in the Louisiana Derby (GII). A 3 ¼-length win in the Illinois Derby (GIII) served as his biggest victory to date.

Departing’s final work for the Preakness was an easy half-mile breeze at Churchill Downs. He will be a tough rival for Orb, but he has already been defeated by horses that Orb has conquered. Departing will need to continue his improvement in order to win this race and his improvement will need to outshine Orb’s, which would be a very difficult feat.

5. MYLUTE: Following a strong runner-up effort in the Louisiana Derby (GII), Mylute closed to finish a strong fifth in the Kentucky Derby. His final work for the Preakness was a good half-mile move at Churchill Downs. He was outfinished by Orb last out and though I do not foresee him beating Orb, a good performance from Mylute is expected.  Read about Mylute in greater detail here.

Mylute
Photo by Brittlan Wall

6. OXBOW: Rather forwardly placed in the Derby, Oxbow had every chance to take the lead but could not sustain his rally and finished sixth. Nonetheless, he ran a good race and has trained well since. He should not be ignored in the Preakness. Read about Oxbow in greater detail here.

7. WILL TAKE CHARGE: This D. Wayne Lukas trainee trained up to the Derby following his game Rebel Stakes (GII) win. He was given no chance in the Derby after being forced to check at the top of the stretch, but ran on well to finish eighth. His final preparation for the Preakness was an easy half-mile breeze at Churchill Downs. Should he receive a cleaner trip on Saturday, Will Take Charge may surprise people with a good rally, though I do not expect him to win. Read about Will Take Charge in greater detail here.

Will Take Charge
Photo by Brittlan Wall

8. GOVENOR CHARLIE: Second in his debut behind future stakes winner Let Em Shine, Govenor Charlie was a game winner in his second start. He then was a dominant winner of the Sunland Derby (GIII), in which he broke the track record over a very speedy track. A foot bruise kept him out of the Derby and although his final work for the Derby was a brisk six-furlong work at Churchill Downs, the fact that he had this physical issue could be to his disadvantage. Although talented and capable of running a good race, Govenor Charlie may be outclassed and somewhat unprepared here.

9. ITSMYLUCKYDAY: A disappointing fifteenth in the Kentucky Derby, a crucial question looms for Itsmyluckyday. Was it the sloppy track or the distance that resulted in such a poor performance? His final work for the Preakness was postponed, resulting in him going four furlongs in between races at Monmouth Park on Sunday. He will have to show major improvement to find success on Saturday. Read about Itsmyluckyday in greater detail here.

The racing world has pinned their dreams upon Orb, hoping that he will be the one to finally end the Triple Crown drought. The prestigious series may be only five weeks long, but Orb has a long road ahead. However, he is clearly my top selection in the Preakness. I also expected good performances from Departing and Mylute, as well as Goldencents should he rebound, which is possible considering how strong he has appeared in his gallops at Pimlico. I will also not throw out Will Take Charge, but Orb is the horse to beat.

Juvenile Spotlight 12/31/12

Highestmaintenance (12/20): Upon debut, this Todd Pletcher-trained, Mike Repole-owned filly was sent off as the favorite in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park. After setting a brisk pace without much pressure from her rivals, the dark bay/brown filly drew off to a 6 ¾-length victory. Sired by Macho Uno and out of a stakes-winning mare, Highestmaintenance’s third dam, Wayward Pirate, is the granddam of the graded stakes-winning millionaire Continental Red.  

Departing (12/22): A homebred for Claiborne Farm & Adele Dilschneider, Departing made his debut at the Fair Grounds, settling several lengths off a brisk pace amongst a field that included only one juvenile that had raced before. The bay colt drew clear in the final stages of the race, crossing under the wire 2 ¼ lengths in front. A result of the mating between War Front and a Pulpit mare, Departing is likely to perform best at middle distances. As a direct descendant of the great mare Myrtlewood, graded stakes success seems to be a probable future for Departing.

Gustavia (12/23): This Chad Brown trainee took four tries to break her maiden, but once she did, Gustavia displayed serious potential, scoring at Aqueduct by nearly 2 lengths in a good final time of 1:48.70 for nine furlongs over turf. Bred on the same Pulpit/Storm Bird sire line cross that has produced the likes of the grade one winners Careless Jewel, Hansen, Ice Box, Mi Sueno, and Sky Mesa, Gustavia is a half-sister to the stakes-winning Hard Mystery.

Mylute (12/26): Beginning his career with a pair of in-the-money finishes, including a runner-up performance in the Prairie Gold Juvenile Stakes, Mylute broke his maiden at Arlington Park. The colt then contested in three stakes, finishing fifth in the Arlington-Washington Futurity (GIII), second in the Jean Lafitte Stakes, and third in the Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (GIII). The Tom Amoss trainee seemed to find his best stride in his final start of 2012, dominating an allowance optional claiming field at the Fair Grounds that included impressive maiden winner General Election by 10 ¾ lengths.

Private Ensign (12/26): Following a second-place finish behind Oblahlah in her debut, Private Ensign coasted to a 3 ½-length victory in her second career start, going a mile and one-sixteenth over the dirt at Gulfstream Park. It is no surprise that the stretch-out in distance improved her performance, as this royally-bred filly is sired by the great A.P. Indy and out of a daughter of South African Triple Crown winner Horse Chestnut. This filly’s bloodlines are incredibly impressive, as her third dam is the great Personal Ensign, an undefeated champion on the track and a highly influential broodmare – a Reine de Course mare in fact – on the farm.

Distinctiv Passion (12/28): Third behind Capo Bastone in his debut, Distinctiv Passion finished fourth in his second start just two weeks later. He returned to the races three months later, breaking his maiden at Hollywood Park. With ease, Distinctiv Passion took a stakes-quality allowance race at Santa Anita, defeating a field that included graded stakes winner Know More, the graded stakes-placed Super Ninety Nine, and the stakes-placed Mico Margarita. Sired by With Distinction and out of a granddaughter of Gone West, Distinctiv Passion is a full brother to the black-type-winning Italo.

Appealing Tale (12/29): Following two satisfactory performances at Hollywood Park, Appealing Tale excelled in his first dirt try, capturing a one-mile maiden special weight at Santa Anita by 6 ¼ lengths, defeating the highly-touted Mentor Cane in the process. The colt is bred on the successful Tale of the Cat/Unbridled’s Song cross, which has produced the group/graded stakes winners A Shin Top and Alpha Kitten.

Golden Soul (12/30): Defeated by a scant head in his debut, Golden Soul soared to an easy 7 ¼-length triumph in his second start, romping in a maiden special weight at the Fair Grounds. A result of the mating between Canadian champion Perfect Soul and a Mr. Prospector mare, Golden Soul is a half-brother to the graded stakes-winning Quintons Gold Rush.

Omega Star (12/31): After finishing second behind Clawback in his debut at Aqueduct, Omega Star was transferred to John Shirreffs’ barn in Southern California. On the final possible day he could win as a juvenile, Omega Star broke his maiden in a California-bred maiden special weight, coming from off the pace to coast to an easy 3-length triumph. Sired by Candy Ride and out of a Fusaichi Pegasus mare, Omega Star’s granddam is the Irish-bred Alpride, a multiple grade one-winning highweight.