Oaks Contender: Hard Not to Like

Despite never having run on dirt, Hard Not to Like will make her main track debut among the most gifted sophomore fillies on the continent as she contests in the Kentucky Oaks (GI). Though she’ll have three wins to her credit as she goes to post, she will have no graded stakes victories under her belt – just good performances in them. Despite the fact that she may be bestowed with high odds, she certainly has a good chance to outrun those odds.

The graceful, charcoal gray filly is a result of a careful mating planned by owner and breeder Garland Williamson of Hillbrook Farms, who retains ownership of Hard Not to Like’s dam, Like a Gem – a track record setter at ten furlongs and a multiple black-type winner. An earner of over half-a-million dollars, the Ontario-bred mare is out of the same dam as the multiple graded stakes-placed Cool Gator and the stakes-winning Win and Reign. A daughter of the grade one-winning Tactical Cat, Like a Gem provides Hard Not to Like with the great Storm Cat as her grandsire. Tactical Cat – too young to make much of an impact as a broodmare sire – is a son of the damsire of such horses as the grade one winners Bodemeister, Dialed In, Folklore, Sky Mesa, Speightstown, and Sidney’s Candy. Like a Gem’s own broodmare sire is champion sprinter Rubiano, damsire of the grade one winner Take Charge Lady, as well as the graded stakes victors Ecclesiastic, Grazen, Neko Bay, Teammate, and War Front.

Interestingly, Hard Not to Like comes from the same dam line as fellow Kentucky Oaks contender Summer Applause, as Hard Not to Like’s seventh dam is the Reine De Course mare Iribelle, who happens to be Summer Applause’s fifth dam. This forms the same line of beautifully-bred E.P. Taylor mares, as Iribelle – a stakes-placed runner – was the dam of the Canadian Horse of the Year, as well as Victoriana – Summer Applause’s fifth dam – and the talented multiple stakes-winning Britannia – Hard Not to Like’s sixth dam.

The dam of Hard Not to Like is the flourishing young sire Hard Spun. A grade one winner who finished second in the 2007 Kentucky Derby (GI), Hard Spun is a son of the influential sire Danzig. Other sons of the deceased son of Northern Dancer that have gone on to success at stud include the champion racehorse and one of the leading international sires, Danehill, as well as the sire of champions, Dayjur. From a strong dam line that included the dam of the champion Little Current , Hard Spun has quickly become a successful stud, siring such horses as Saturday's Derby Trial Stakes (GIII)-winning Hierro, the group stakes-winning Red Duke, the multiple stakes-winning and graded stakes-placed Glinda the Good, and the stakes-winning runners Hardened Wildcat, Midnight Transfer, and Sweet Seventeen. Hard Not to Like is currently his leading earner.

Between Hard Spun and Like a Gem, Hard Not to Like features 3 X 5 inbreeding to the influential Northern Dancer. Inbreeding to this prominent son of Nearctic has appeared in the pedigrees of several champions, including Big Brown, Orfevre, Rachel Alexandra, and Summer Bird.

The pedigree of Hard Not to Like implies that the filly can run on any surface and by the end of the Kentucky Oaks, she will have done so. However, she has not yet contested over dirt – the surface over which the Oaks is run. All of her races have come on the turf and synthetic.

Hard Not to Like made her first start in a six-furlong maiden special weight over the turf course at Woodbine in Canada, sitting in a mid-pack position prior to closing to prevail by a half-length in an impressive final time of 1:09.81. She scored another win a month later, competing in a one-mile allowance over Woodbine’s turf oval. Racing mid-pack yet again, the dark gray filly made a wide move around the final turn before striking to lead and never looking back as she coasted to a 1 ¼-length victory. Yet again, the daughter of Hard Spun posted another remarkable final time: 1:35.10 for one mile.

Taking a step up in class, Hard Not to Like loaded into the gate amongst a deep field of juvenile fillies. Over the same turf course on which all of her starts had come, the Gail Cox trainee broke from the starting gate in the Natalma Stakes (GIII) – named after E.P. Taylor’s great dam of Northern Dancer. Finding a position far off the pace, Hard Not to Like was forced to maneuver traffic and swing extremely wide around the far turn. By the time she had found enough real estate to commence her move, she seemed to have lost too much momentum and despite making a decent rally, Hard Not to Like had to settle for fifth. While finishing behind the winners of a combined five future graded stakes or ungraded stakes races, Hard Not to Like defeated runners that had placed or would eventually place in a total of six stakes races.

Making her fourth consecutive start over Woodbine’s grass course, Hard Not to Like performed next in the Cup and Saucer Stakes at a mile and one-sixteenth. The daughter of Hard Spun displayed a new dimension, being forwardly placed before taking command of the lead around the final curve. She had dig in to overthrow two other grays in the stretch, but once she did, she coasted to a 4 ¾-length victory over Woodbine’s soft turf. Remarkably, Hard Not to Like was the only filly in the field.

Hard Not to Like proceeded to enter the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (GII) at Churchill Downs, facing the past or future winners of seven group or graded stakes altogether. Racing widest of all, Hard Not to Like ran mid-pack, though a bit closer to the lead than she had been in her first three starts. Due to her wide trip, the gray filly had no choice but to race near the center of the track as the field swung into the homestretch. She rallied, but it was only enough to secure a fifth-place finish, beaten just three lengths.

The Ontario-bred filly did not start again for five months, making her sophomore debut in the Central Bank Ashland Stakes (GI) at Keeneland – a race full of history. It was her first start in a race that was not contested on a turf course, but it was on the similar surface Polytrack. It was also her first start in a grade one race, which is, of course, the highest level of racing. The significant race was a tall task for a return to the races, but if there was even the slightest hope of getting Hard Not to Like to the Kentucky Oaks, the race would set her up well should she run a good race. With Robby Albarado aboard for the first time, Hard Not to Like was forwardly placed as Karlovy Vary set the pace. Despite finding room around the final turn and making an impressive rally, she could not best Karlovy Vary and finished second by ¾ of a length.

Hard Not to Like’s remarkable return to the races sent her on the road to the Kentucky Oaks, where she will face the toughest field of her life. Yet, if Hard Not to Like could run that well in such a tough race off a five-month layoff, one can only imagine how much she has matured. Already a gifted filly, Hard Not to Like seems to be an improving filly.

Many find it worrisome that she has not started over dirt before, but the filly has been training well over the dirt surface at Palm Meadows Training Center despite posting sluggish times. However, trainer Gail Cox has expressed confidence in the filly. In fact, he told the Daily Racing Form, “We sort of think she’ll handle any surface.”

This still may not convince handicappers, but it must be noted that the filly’s sire was very successful on both dirt and synthetic, winning graded stakes races on both surfaces. He was also effective over Churchill Downs’ main track, running a spectacular second in the 2007 Kentucky Derby. Though Hard Not to Like’s dam, Like a Gem, found her greatest success on the turf and synthetic, she won twice over conventional dirt. It also must be taken into consideration that Hard Not to Like galloped over the Churchill Downs’ dirt surface in preparation for the Breeders’ Cup last fall.

With just one start under her belt this year and no starts on dirt, Hard Not to Like will likely go off at double-digit odds. Perhaps she’ll be a good play for bettors, but most of all, it would no surprise to me to see Hard Not to Like perform very well in the Kentucky Oaks. A classy, improving filly with a pedigree interwoven with names of imperial Thoroughbreds, Hard Not to Like will be a significant presence on Oaks Day.

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Oaks Contender: Summer Applause

Bret Calhoun has emerged from solely being a successful trainer in the South and has formed a presence on the national scene. For instance, in 2010, he saddled two Breeders’ Cup winners: Chamberlain Bridge and Dubai Majesty. Now, in 2012, he has a chance to saddle the victor of the renowned Kentucky Oaks (GI) thanks to a talented filly named Summer Applause.

The bay filly debuted in Canada as a juvenile, finishing a flat sixth in a five and one-half-furlong maiden special weight over Woodbine’s all-weather track. She redeemed herself next out, however, stretching out to seven furlongs. After settling off the leaders, Summer Applause struck to the lead in the stretch prior to drawing clear to win by 2 ¼ lengths.

Her final start as a two-year-old came at Fair Grounds Race Course in New Orleans, Louisiana, in which she contested in a mile and seventy yards allowance optional claiming over the track’s dirt surface. She showed a new dimension, setting the lead from start to finish as she effortlessly triumphed by 7 lengths.

Summer Applause’s stakes debut came in the Silverbulletday Stakes, in which the Calhoun trainee pressed the pace set by Believe You Can before the aforementioned filly went on to defeat her by 2 ½ lengths. Summer Applause clearly learned much from the race, however, as next out in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (GIII), she continued her blossoming rivalry with Believe You Can. Returning to her style of rating off the pace, Summer Applause made a late move to take the mile and one-sixteenth race by a length, leaving Believe You Can in fourth.

The rivalry was revived yet again in the Fair Grounds Oaks (GII), in which Summer Applause rated off the pace before making an outside move on the far turn. It appeared as if Believe You Can was drawing away from the field, leaving Summer Applause behind, but the Calhoun trainee dug in under Robby Albarado. As she reached the sixteenth pole, she suddenly hit another gear and accelerated to close in on Believe You Can, only to miss by a head. The blaze-faced bay galloped out ahead of the victor.

Calhoun, who typically keeps a stable at Churchill Downs during the Louisville track’s meet, already has Summer Applause stabled beneath the Twin Spires, giving her plenty of time to get adapted to the track. She will get more training over the track compared to several other Kentucky Oaks hopefuls, which will certainly be to her benefit.

Summer Applause’s bloodlines are full of the names of elite horses, giving implications that Summer Applause has only just begun her journey to success. Her sire is Harlan’s Holiday, who has quickly become one of the most productive sires in the industry. A multiple grade one-winning grandson of Storm Cat, Harlan’s Holiday has produced the grade one-winning horses Into Mischief and Majesticperfection, the multiple group stakes-winning horses Mendip and Willcox Inn, and the grade three-winning runners Dynamic Holiday, Riley Tucker, Saratoga Sinner, Silver Reunion, and Tasha’s Miracle.

The dam of Summer Applause is Summer Exhibition, a result of the mating between the champion Royal Academy and the stakes-winning dam of the multiple graded stakes-winning Recoup the Cash. In addition to producing Summer Applause, Summer Exhibition is the dam of the multiple stakes-placed runner Big Easy.

Summer Applause features two crosses of the Reine De Course mare Crimson Saint, who was a graded stakes winner who produced the grade one-winning champion and sire Royal Academy, the grade one-winning and track record-equaling Pancho Villa, the multiple graded stakes-winning dam of Storm Cat in Terlingua, the stakes-winning Alydariel, and the stakes-placed horses Border Run and Encino (the latter of which is graded stakes-placed). 

She is also inbred 5 X 4 to Northern Dancer, who has appeared in both the bloodlines of the sire and dam in the pedigrees of such Kentucky Oaks winners as Rachel Alexandra and Keeper Hill, as well as recent Derby victors Mine That Bird and Big Brown.

Summer Applause descends from a line of royally-bred mares from E.P. Taylor’s powerhouse breeding program. Her fifth dam, the Reine De Course mare Victoriana, who herself is a daughter of a Reine De Course mare in Iribelle, is the dam of the 1952 Canadian Horse of the Year Canadiana. Victoriana was an even more successful broodmare than her dam, producing the champions Northern Queen (Summer Applause’s fourth dam) and Victoria Park, the multiple stakes-winning Bull Vic, and the dam of a champion. Other direct descendants of Victoriana include the Canadian Hall of Famer Vice Regent, the Canadian champion Northern Blossom, and the multiple group stakes-winning High Accolade. This productive dam line hails from female family ten, which has yielded the champions Beldame, Deputy Minister, and La Roche, as well as the 2005 Kentucky Oaks victor Summerly.

Summer Applause poses one of the biggest threats in the Kentucky Oaks as a result of her clear racing talent and determination, in addition to her royal pedigree. Though she has finished behind Believe You Can more than she has defeated her, I believe she is the better filly, especially the longer the distance. Summer Applause is absolutely one of the leading contenders for this year’s edition of the Run for the Lilies.


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Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint

One of the newer additions to the Breeders’ Cup, the Turf Sprint features quick-footed turf horses that will run this race in likely less than a minute. Over the lush green grass that Kentucky Derby winners walk across to reach the winner’s circle, turf sprinters will exhibit their brilliance. Who will be crowned the champion?

Here are my top four picks for the Turf Sprint:

1. Caracortado: Yes, Caracortado is entered in the Turf Sprint. The hard-knocking California-bred gelding, who has not raced at a distance shorter than a mile since his third-place finish in the Malibu Stakes (GI) in December, will run in the five furlong grass race. “Scarface” seems to be the class of the field, having earned nearly half a million dollars this year.

Caracortado, who has been one of my personal favorites since December of his two-year-old year, is coming off a nose victory over a talented three-year-old named Mr. Commons in the Del Mar Mile Handicap (GI). The son of Cat Dreams has had his best performances on the turf, as he has won two stakes (one of which was graded) on the turf course, placed second in two turf grade ones, and finished third in one turf grade one. He has only finished out of the money once on the turf.

Caracortado is four for five at distances of seven furlongs or shorter and has never finished out of the money at such distances. The five-furlong distance of the Turf Sprint should not be a problem for Caracortado. The chestnut four-year-old broke his maiden at four and one-half furlongs and is two-for-two at the distance of six furlongs. Look for him to come roaring down the stretch on November 5.

2. Havelock: Keeneland’s beautiful fall meet provided Havelock with his first graded victory. In his final prep for the Breeders’ Cup, the son of Great Notion drew clear to win the Woodford Stakes (GIII) at five and one-half furlongs on the turf. He traveled the final sixteenth in an impressive 6.17 seconds. He clearly can handle the conditions of the Turf Sprint, but he will have to give it his all against Caracortado.

3. Regally Ready: I’m not quite as confident in this four-year-old gelding as I am in my top two, but except for one extremely disappointing performance this year, Regally Ready has not finished off the board. He’s coming off a win over a yielding Woodbine turf course in the Neartic Stakes (GI), in which he battled to hang on. I worry that the race took too much out of him, but the son of More Than Ready is training well for Steve Asmussen. The chestnut is already at Churchill Downs, but he doesn’t need to worry about adjusting. He is undefeated over the Churchill turf course, having race there twice. Both races were at the distance of five furlongs. The fact that he’s already had two races under the same conditions as the Turf Sprint gives him an edge.

4. Broken Dreams: This mare has never faced colts, but she has faced the best female turf sprinters in California and done battle with them. In her last start, Broken Dreams finished first in the Senator Ken Maddy Stakes (GIII), defeating a field that was made up of Givine, Tanda, Unzip Me, Separate Forest, and Waveline. Broken Dreams, a five-year-old Florida-bred, will come into the race with much confidence, as she has finished off the board just three times this year and has given a tremendous effort in nearly every 2011 start. Plus, she has a slight edge over many of the others. She has already raced five furlongs over the Churchill turf course, when she finished a good second in an allowance race last spring in just her second start. Broken Dreams is improving and though she will face males for the first time, she’ll likely give it her all.


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Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf

In its fifth running, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf will be a grade one race for the first time. We haven’t seen a superstar come out of the race yet, but I wouldn’t be surprised if one emerges this year. The race is full of talented colts this year, including horses that could have a future either on dirt or turf.

Here are my top four picks for the Juvenile Turf:

1. Finale: After finishing third and fourth in two maiden special weights on the dirt, the Todd Pletcher two-year-old switched to the turf. The son of grade one winner Scat Daddy relished the grass in his turf debut, romping by 5 ¾ lengths. Running just off the pace, Finale took the lead with about a furlong to go, finishing the final furlong in 11:55 seconds for a final time of 1:08.70 for six furlongs.

The bay colt made his stakes debut in his next start, dominantly winning the Continental Mile Stakes over the Monmouth Park turf course by 10 ½ lengths. In his third start over the turf, which was also his final prep for the Breeders’ Cup, Finale broke slowly and battled down the stretch to prevail by three-quarters of a length in the Summer Stakes (GIII) at Woodbine. Todd Pletcher has been working the colt at a half-mile distance over a dirt track at Belmont Park. The colt, who obviously loves the turf, arrived at Churchill Downs on Monday with the rest of Todd Pletcher’s string. Though overshadowed by stablemates such as Uncle Mo and Stay Thirsty, Finale has a good chance to make a name for himself.

2. State of Play: Last year, Team Valor International-owned Pluck won this race. Now, their colt State of Play is looking to make it a repeat for them. The colt by War Front has only raced twice, but both of those starts have been wins.

A fever kept him from running in what was supposed to be his final prep for the Breeders’ Cup, but the flashy bay colt has been training well for Graham Motion. His most recent work was a five furlong breeze over Keeneland’s synthetic track, in which he turned in a time of 1:01.60. The colt is undoubtedly bred for the turf, as his sire War Front has sired successful turf horses such as Soldat and Summer Soiree. He has not raced since the beginning of September, but I believe he has plenty of raw talent to be competitive. Check out the Juvenile Spotlight I wrote about him at: http://pastthegrandstand.blogspot.com/2011/09/juvenile-spotlight-state-of-play.html

3. Dullahan: The half-brother to 2009 Kentucky Derby (GI) winner Mine That Bird has this race as first preference over the Juvenile. The son of Even the Score is coming into the Breeders’ Cup off a win in the Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity (GI) over Majestic City at Keeneland. The race was on the synthetic, which is quite similar to turf.

The chestnut broke his maiden in that race, as the best he had finished prior to the Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity was second. In his final start before his grade one victory, Dullahan finished third to State of Play in the With Anticipation Stakes (GII) at Saratoga. I don’t think he can match the top two, but the colt is improving and will be a factor on race day.

4. Majestic City: The chestnut colt, who made a name for himself in southern California over the summer by winning three straight races, including the Hollywood Juvenile Championship Stakes (GIII), has lost his last two starts. However, they both have been very good performances.

At the beginning of September, Majestic City crossed the wire in second to Drill in the Del Mar Futurity (GI), but was disqualified to third for bumping with Creative Cause. He made his final start before the Breeders’ Cup at Keeneland in the Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity, finishing second to Dullahan.

With two wins at Hollywood Park and a good second place finish at Keeneland, Majestic City has a very good record on synthetic surfaces, which as mentioned, are often similar to turf. On October 22, Majestic City worked over the Santa Anita turf, turning in a half-mile work in the time of 47.60 to record a bullet work. His connections decided to enter him in the Juvenile Turf.

The colt’s sire, City Zip, is a tremendous turf sire, having sired talented turf horses such as Get Serious and Unzip Me. All signs suggest that Majestic City will have no problem with running on the turf. Don’t forget about this colt on race day; he has a lot to offer, including one of the most important qualities: heart.

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