Derby Hopeful: Oxbow

Derby Hopefuls feature the horses I view as the best contenders leading up to the Kentucky Derby. Each horse spotlighted in a Derby Hopeful will join the 2013 PTG Derby Hopeful roster, found on the right side of the blog. Horses will be listed in an order that corresponds to how highly I think of them, with the horse I think most highly of ranking at the top. A horse featured in a Derby Hopeful may be taken off the roster if its performances after its article are published are not up to par or if that horse is taken off the Triple Crown trail, though those articles will remain on my blog.

The Kentucky Derby (GI) is no new territory for the connections of Oxbow. Although the esteemed Calumet Farm now has new owners and is now represented by black and gold silks rather than the immortalized blue and red, Oxbow is owned by the farm that owned eight previous Derby victors. His trainer, D. Wayne Lukas, has saddled four winners of the Run for the Roses and Gary Stevens, the colt's jockey, has guided three horses to Derby glory – two of which were trained by Lukas.

But none of these connections have visited the Derby winner’s enclosure as of late. Calumet’s most recent Derby victory was in 1968, Lukas’ was in 1999, and Stevens’ was in 1997. However, this year, these three could team up together for the first time to win the roses with the help of a stunning bay colt named Oxbow.

Oxbow’s career got off to a slow start. Pulled up and vanned off in his debut at Saratoga, the colt then finished fourth in a maiden special weight at Keeneland behind future Lexington Stakes (GIII) victor Winning Cause prior to turning in a third-place effort in a maiden at Churchill Downs.

The colt finally broke through with a win on closing weekend at Churchill Downs. Breaking from one of the outside posts, Oxbow set a brisk pace before drawing off to win by 4 ¾ lengths and thus earning himself a spot on my watch list.

Shipping to California for the CashCall Futurity (GI), Oxbow was sent off as the second longest shot in a field of eleven. Leaving the gate from the far outside post, Oxbow raced very wide into the clubhouse turn but gained ground on the pacesetters, finding a position just off the leaders as the field entered the backstretch. Tracking the pace from the outside, the D. Wayne Lukas trainee attempted to keep up around the far turn, but weakened as the horses turned for home, finishing a distant fourth.

Oxbow returned strong as a three-year-old, making his sophomore debut in the LeComte Stakes (GIII) at the Fair Grounds. Drawing a post closer to the inside than the outside for the first time since October, Oxbow led from start to finish, coasting to a breathtaking 11 ½-length victory.

Remaining at the Fair Grounds for his following start, the Risen Star Stakes (GII), Oxbow drew an outside post yet again. Once again forced wide around the first bend, Oxbow pressed the pace down the backside prior to taking the lead near the five-sixteenths pole. He led rivals into the lane, maintaining his advantage down Fair Grounds’ long homestretch before weakening just before the sixteenth pole, finishing fourth, beaten less than a length.

Finishing his Derby trail in Arkansas with Oaklawn Park’s two most significant Derby preps, Oxbow made his penultimate start before the Derby in the Rebel Stakes (GII), his third mile and one-sixteenth race of his career and second of the season. Receiving yet another outside post, Oxbow broke well but raced widest of all around the far turn. As he had in several previous starts, the colt quickly moved into a position behind the frontrunners. Initially rating several lengths off the leaders down the backstretch, Oxbow – along with the rest of the field – gained ground on the pacesetters as the horses reached the end of the far stretch.

Remaining on the outside, Oxbow rallied around the far turn, easily taking the lead midway through the curve. Despite drifting in as he led the field into the homestretch, Oxbow maintained his lead, beginning to draw clear of his opponents. But his stablemate, Will Take Charge, closed powerfully, getting up in the final strides to defeat Oxbow by a head.

Oxbow’s run of outside posts did not culminate in his final race before the Kentucky Derby, the Arkansas Derby (GI). With Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens – who had come out of retirement earlier in the year – aboard for the first time, Oxbow broke from the outside post and was not guided to the vanguard as he had been in his previous starts, but rather near the rear of the field. Although his usual speed was not used, he did race wide around the first turn as he had recurrently done in previous starts.

Galloping several lengths off the lead down the backstretch, Oxbow was asked for a run around the far turn by Stevens, but came up on a wall of horses and therefore had to travel wide around the far turn. Offering a subdued rally down the stretch, Oxbow did not find his best stride until it was too late, crossing the wire fifth. After the race, it was revealed that Lukas would have preferred for Oxbow to be ridden nearer the pace – as he had been in his previous races.

Oxbow's pedigree
From pedigreequery.com

Oxbow is bred very similarly to Paynter, a grade one winner at nine furlongs that was a close second in the Belmont Stakes (GI, 12F), being his three-quarters brother. Both Oxbow and Paynter are sired by Awesome Again, winner of many ten-furlong races, including the first leg of Canada's Triple Crown - the Queen's Plate Stakes - and the Breeders' Cup Classic (GI). Awesome Again has sired an abundance of distance horses, including Awesome Gem, Game on Dude, and Ginger Punch - all of which are grade one winners at ten furlongs. Oxbow should inherit stamina from Awesome Again's sire, Deputy Minister, who has appeared within the first three generations of numerous distance horses, including Curlin, Paynter, and Rags to Riches. The Canadian Hall of Famer was a tremendous broodmare sire, producing the dams of many talented distance horses, including the multiple group one-winning Kane Hekili and Sarava, winner of the 2002 Belmont.

Awesome Again is a son of 2000 Broodmare of the Year, Primal Force - a daughter of Blushing Groom. A recipient of several championship honors as both racehorse and sire, Blushing Groom excelled as a miler but produced many distance horses, including Nashwan, Rainbow Quest, and Runaway Groom - all of which were grade/group one winners at ten furlongs or more. But perhaps Blushing Groom's greatest success came as a broodmare sire, as he is the sire of the dams of a wealth of grade/group one winners, including those that have been victorious at ten furlongs or beyond: Flute, Haafhd, and Mezzo Soprano.

Like Paynter, Oxbow is out of a full sister to two-time Breeders' Cup Classic hero Tiznow. Oxbow's dam, Tizamazing, was a million-dollar yearling and has also produced Oxbow's full brother, Awesome Patriot - a stakes winner at nine furlongs. Aside from Paynter's dam - Tizso - and Tiznow, Tizamazing is also a full sister to the multiple graded stakes-winning Budroyale, who won at nine furlongs on multiple occasions and was runner-up in the 1999 Breeders' Cup Classic; Tizbud, a stakes winner and graded stakes-placed runner; and the graded stakes-winning sprinter Tizdubai. She is also a half-sister to the stakes-placed C'mon Tiger.

Cee's Song, Tizamazing's dam, is a daughter of Seattle Song, a group one winner at twelve furlongs and a son of Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew. The sire of Tizamazing is Cee's Tizzy, who was graded stakes-placed at ten furlongs. In addition to Budroyale and Tiznow, Cee's Tizzy also sired champion Gourmet Girl, who captured several nine-furlong races.

Oxbow may not bring to the table the most fashionable race record, but when he is at the top of his game, he is a fierce competitor. Should he draw a more beneficial post and be given a more fitting ride in the Derby, he could turn in a grand performance. Furthermore, although he has appeared to tire in the final stages of a handful of his races, he has had a taxing campaign and though this could be worrisome for his chances in the Derby and the Triple Crown series, the colt is bred for distance.

Derby Hopeful: Palace Malice

Derby Hopefuls feature the horses I view as the best contenders leading up to the Kentucky Derby. Each horse spotlighted in a Derby Hopeful will join the 2013 PTG Derby Hopeful roster, found on the right side of the blog. Horses will be listed in an order that corresponds to how highly I think of them, with the horse I think most highly of ranking at the top. A horse featured in a Derby Hopeful may be taken off the roster if its performances after its article are published are not up to par or if that horse is taken off the Triple Crown trail, though those articles will remain on my blog.

Last-minute changes in plans can leave a huge impact on life. Their effect is being felt along the 2013 Kentucky Derby trail, as at least two Derby contenders – Vyjack and Palace Malice – would never had existed if it weren’t for such changes. Whereas Vyjack is sired by a horse that his dam wasn’t intended to be bred to – meaning, had things gone as originally planned, he would not have existed –, Palace Malice’s dam escaped death – or at the very least, severe injury – due a quick change of schedule.

The dam of Palace Malice, Palace Rumor, was trained by small-time trainer Burl McBride, who sent the daughter of Royal Anthem to Hal Wiggins’ barn at Churchill Downs for a start beneath the twin spires while the remainder of his small stable remained at Ellis Park. Although he planned to send Palace Rumor – two years old at the time – back to Ellis Park after her race, he decided to keep her overnight at Churchill following a taxing effort.

Early the next morning, a tornado ripped through Ellis Park, killing three of the seven horses McBride had stabled there. Palace Rumor – who, by the intervention of fate, had remained safe at Churchill Downs – was the only horse he had left. She would go on to be a black-type winner, accumulating career earnings of $271,135 before being sold for $140,000 to William S. Farish of Lane’s End Farm at the 2008 Keeneland January Horses of All Ages Sale while in foal to Tiznow.

One year later, Palace Rumor was bred to Curlin. The result was Palace Malice, who McBride attempted to purchase but was never able to, although he has eagerly followed the colt, owned by Cot Campbell’s Dogwood Stable.

Second in his debut behind the later graded stakes-placed Carried Interest, Palace Malice was shipped to Saratoga for his second attempt at breaking his maiden. After being anxious while loading into the gate, the bay colt broke sharply, finding a position just off the pacesetters. Tracking the leaders throughout, Palace Malice raced wide while sitting just off the brisk pace of the six and one-half-furlong maiden special weight. In authoritative fashion, Palace Malice took the lead around the far turn prior to storming to a 3 ½-length victory. Among the horses finishing behind him was Hightail, eventual winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint.

Palace Malice’s first start as a three-year-old resulted in a runner-up effort in a seven-furlong allowance optional claiming event at Gulfstream Park. This set him up for a run in the Risen Star Stakes (GII) at the Fair Grounds, his first try around two turns. After a clean break, the Todd Pletcher trainee settled near the rear of the main group of horses. Finding a gap between horses as the field entered the far turn, Palace Malice surged forward, gaining ground on the leaders. Guided to the outside to maneuver traffic, Palace Malice ran greenly, veering in and out, but managed to finish third, beaten less than ¾ of a length.

Disappointment embodied the colt’s next start, the Louisiana Derby (GII). Receiving a ground-saving trip, Palace Malice made a stunning rally down the backstretch, coasting closer to the leaders to prepare himself for a run in the final portion of the contest. Having upgraded from eighth to fourth, Palace Malice was forced to check on the far turn when he became boxed in, thus allowing an abundance of horses to pass him as his remarkable rally came to a forced halt. Although his rider searched for room down the homestretch, he had no luck. Once he finally found room in the late stages of the race, Palace Malice’s momentum had been ruined and he could finish no better than seventh.

But the colt’s fortune improved next out in the Blue Grass Stakes (GI) at Keeneland. Contesting over a synthetic surface for the first time in his career, the son of Curlin broke inwardly but galloped away well, taking a position near the rail behind the pacesetters. Appearing comfortable as he settled approximately five lengths off the leader as the field reached the backstretch, Palace Malice again received a ground-saving trip along the rail, growing closer to the leaders down the backstretch to assume the third spot.

The favorite, Rydilluc, led the field by 3 ½ lengths as the fourteen horses turned for home, but Palace Malice accelerated, being angled to the outside to attempt to gear down on him. Reaching Rydilluc outside the eighth pole, Palace Malice incorrectly changed leads at the sixteenth pole – either a sign of fatigue or greenness, the latter of which is a trait he has been known to exhibit – but took the lead, only to be passed by Java’s War in the very final strides as he switched back to the correct lead. Palace Malice was second by just a neck.

Palace Malice (green & yellow silks) coming down the homestretch of the Blue Grass
Photo by Brittlan Wall

Although Palace Malice appeared to be getting tired in the final stages of the Blue Grass, each race has been a learning experience for the colt and this race was only adding to his foundation. Moreover, he is bred through and through for classic distances.

His sire, all-time leading money earner Curlin, was an excellent distance horse, finishing in-the-money in all three of the competitive 2007 Triple Crown races: he was third in the Derby, first in the mile and three-sixteenths Preakness Stakes (GI), and second in the mile and one-half Belmont Stakes (GI). The two-time Horse of the Year was victorious at ten furlongs on five occasions and came within a head of winning at twelve furlongs. Considering Palace Malice is a member of his first crop, there is not much to measure Curlin’s success as a sire just yet. However, in addition to Palace Malice, he has also produced Zimniy Dvorets – a group stakes winner in Russia, the black-type-winning Countess, and the graded stakes-placed runners Blue Violet and Liberated.

Curlin’s sire, Smart Strike, is among the best sires on the continent, having been North America’s leading sire in 2007 and 2008 and a consistent top-five sire. Smart Strike is the sire of numerous distance horses, including champion English Channel – victorious in five grade ones at eleven furlongs or longer; champion Lookin’ At Lucky – winner of the 2010 Preakness; Kazakhstan champion Nodouble Destiny – a group one winner at 2,400 meters (almost 12 furlongs); Fleetstreet Dancer – victor of the Japan Cup Dirt (GI) when it was contested at 2,100 meters (approximately 10.4 furlongs); Tenpins – winner of the mile and three-sixteenths Washington Park Handicap (GII) and runner-up in the Hawthorne Gold Cup (GII) at ten furlongs; Strike a Deal – a graded stakes winner at eleven furlongs; and Smart Bid – a stakes winner at twelve furlongs.

An important stamina influence in Palace Malice’s pedigree is Curlin’s broodmare sire, Deputy Minister. A horse who has appeared in the first three generations of the likes of successful routers such as Paynter and Rags to Riches, the Canadian Hall of Famer was a tremendous broodmare sire, producing the dams of many talented distance horses, including the multiple group one-winning Kane Hekili and Sarava, winner of the 2002 Belmont.

Palace Rumor, who won up to a mile and one-sixteenth, is a daughter of Royal Anthem, a multiple group one winner who won up to twelve furlongs. A son of outstanding distance horse Theatrical, Royal Anthem sired several brilliant routers, including Divine Fortune – a multiple graded stakes-winning steeplechaser that has won up to two and one-half miles – and Presious Passion – a multiple grade one winner known for his speedy turf races that won at a mile and one-half on three occasions.

Palace Malice’s granddam, Whisperifyoudare, is a daughter of Red Ransom, who sired a wealth of distance horses, including Ekraar, Electrocutionist, Perfect Sting, and Roc de Cambes. But Whisperifyoudare was a successful broodmare of sprinters, including the multiple black-type-winning horses Jumpifyoudare and Maya’s Storm. However, her dam, Stellar Affair, was a stakes winner at nine furlongs and is a daughter of Breeders’ Cup Classic (GI, 10F) winner Skywalker. Stellar Affair is also the dam of Sweet Trip, the dam of Rail Trip, a grade one winner at ten furlongs.

The fourth dam of Palace Malice – Fawn and Hahn, who gave Eddie Delahoussaye his 4,000^th career victory – is a daughter of Grey Dawn II, the only horse to ever defeat the great Sea Bird. Although the French champion was primarily a successful sprinter/miler, the son of the great distance horse Herbager produced a fair share of routers, including Bounding Basque, Christmas Past, and Vigors. A leading broodmare sire, Grey Dawn II sired the dams of many talented distance horses, such as Itsallgreektome, Silver Patriarch, and Waquoit. Fawn and Hahn is out of the group stakes-placed Ecstatica, who is out of a productive mare and is sired by the great Damascus, third-place finisher in the Derby who went on to win the Preakness and Belmont.

Palace Malice's pedigree
From pedigreequery.com

Palace Malice could easily fly into the Kentucky Derby under the radar and although he is merely the winner of a maiden race, he is a natural talent whose bloodlines could easily carry him over classic distances. Questions around Derby contenders, particularly one that hasn't won since his maiden victory as a two-year-old, are always abounding, but one thing is certain: Palace Malice's story will allow him to gallop into the hearts of the public. I encourage you to read his story in the words of the great turf writer Steve Haskin here.

Derby Hopeful: Vyjack

Derby Hopefuls feature the horses I view as the best contenders leading up to the Kentucky Derby. Each horse spotlighted in a Derby Hopeful will join the 2013 PTG Derby Hopeful roster, found on the right side of the blog. Horses will be listed in an order that corresponds to how highly I think of them, with the horse I think most highly of ranking at the top. A horse featured in a Derby Hopeful may be taken off the roster if its performances after its article are published are not up to par or if that horse is taken off the Triple Crown trail, though those articles will remain on my blog.

Vyjack was never intended to exist. Those words are harsh, but Vyjack is a result of a last-minute change of plans. His breeders, Sandy Willwerth and Carrie and Craig Brogden of Machmer Hall Farm, had a live foal breeding contract to Bernstein and planned to breed an unraced daughter of Stravinsky, Life Happened, to the son of Storm Cat. But on the day Life Happened was ready to breed to Bernstein, the stallion was booked full. In order to not miss Life Happened’s cycle, last-minute plans were made to breed the mare to freshman sire Into Mischief.

The result was Vyjack, who was gelded as a two-year-old after having shown unacceptable studdish behavior. Vyjack quickly began to show that it was a good thing he did exist, even if he was never intended to. Making his racing debut in November of 2012 in a six and one-half-furlong maiden special weight at Aqueduct, Vyjack pressed the pace before battling the future black-type-winning Clawback down the stretch before drawing away in the late stages to win by almost two lengths at nearly 18-1 odds. Interestingly, eventual Florida Derby (GI) victor and fellow Kentucky Derby (GI) contender, Orb, finished fourth behind Vyjack.

Facing just three others over a sloppy track in his stakes debut, the Traskwood Stakes, Vyjack rated in third in the early stages of the seven-furlong event before gradually inching his way into second as the field entered the far turn. Putting his long, effortless strides to use, Vyjack commandingly took the lead as the horses reached the end of the curve, kicking clear with ease to score by 5 ¾ lengths.

Taking on graded stakes company for the first time in his sophomore debut, the Jerome Stakes (GII), Vyjack would also be going two turns for the first time in his career, as the race was contested at a mile and seventy yards over Aqueduct’s inner track. Although he initially sat behind the pacesetters, Vyjack became the leader shortly after the field reached the backstretch. Strongly pressured by rivals around the final bend, Vyjack was passed by longshot Siete de Oros but drew even with that opponent in the homestretch, dueling with him down the straightaway to gamely prevail by a head.

Vyjack would win his succeeding start, the mile and one-sixteenth Gotham Stakes (GIII), in a much easier manner. Competing against ten adversaries, the bay gelding broke somewhat slowly and rather than finding a position near the pace like he had in his previous races, Vyjack was maneuvered to near the rear of the field, racing wide and several lengths off the frontrunners around the clubhouse turn.

Remaining a wealth of lengths off the pace down the backstretch, Vyjack slowly picked up the pace as the field entered the far turn. As the horses approached the quarter pole, the bay gelding accelerated impressively, swinging wide to go around rivals. He seemed to find a new gear once he changed leads in the homestretch, soaring on the outside as he passed competitors as if they were standing still, crossing the wire 2 ¼ lengths ahead.

Vyjack put his undefeated record on the line in the Wood Memorial Stakes (GI), in which he would not only extend to nine furlongs, but would also have to contest against perhaps the most glorified horse on the Derby trail, the undefeated Verrazano. Leaving the fifth gate in good order, Vyjack quickly joined the front-running unit, settling just behind the leaders as the field raced into the first turn.

Vyjack raced a handful of lengths off the leader as the field reached the backstretch, appearing comfortable while galloping to the outside of rivals. As the horses entered the final curve, Vyjack began to speed up the tempo, looming large on the outside and gaining ground on Verrazano, who had assumed the lead at the half-mile marker. Going wide around the bend, Vyjack set his sights on Verrazano, who would prove to be a very tough rival in the stretch. With all his might, Vyjack strove to surpass the undefeated Todd Pletcher trainee and although he gave Verrazano the toughest test he had yet to face, he could not keep up in the final stages and was narrowly edged out by Normandy Invasion to finish third.

Vyjack's pedigree
From pedigreequery.com

This gelding is as hard-trying as they come and though he is undoubtedly talented, he will have to run the race of his life to win the Derby. His racing endeavors easily outshine his pedigree, which provides much worry regarding this gelding’s ability to be victorious at classic distances. Vyjack is a member of his unintended sire, Into Mischief’s, first crop. Into Mischief was a grade one-winning juvenile, taking the mile and one-sixteenth CashCall Futurity (GI), but was kept out of the Derby due to injury and only raced three times – each start at seven furlongs – as a sophomore. Into Mischief has proven himself in the breeding shed with his first crop, as he is also the sire of grade one-winning Derby contender Goldencents and the multiple black-type-winning filly Sittin at the Bar.

The sire of Into Mischief, Harlan’s Holiday, won at nine furlongs on four occasions, but after triumphs in the Florida Derby and Blue Grass Stakes (GI), the son of the grade one-winning sprinter Harlan finished seventh in the Run for the Roses. However, he did place in several ten-furlong races, including runner-up efforts in the Dubai World Cup (GI) and Hollywood Gold Cup (GI). As a sire, Harlan’s Holiday has predominantly flourished with sprinters and milers, though he has sired the likes of Willcox Inn – winner of the American Derby (GII, 9.5F) – and Denis of Cork – runner-up in the Belmont Stakes (GI, 12F) and third-place finisher in the Kentucky Derby.

Stemming from a strong Maryland-bred female family, Vyjack’s unraced dam, Life Happened, has also produced the multiple graded stakes-placed Prime Cut – who is actually sired by Bernstein. Still currently racing, Prime Cut has won up to about a mile and one-sixteenth and has placed three times at a mile and one-eighth. He finished eleventh of twelve in the 2011 Belmont.

Life Happened is a daughter of the black-type-placed Round It Off, who is also the dam of the graded stakes-winning Disco Rico, a champion sprinter in Maryland. Vyjack’s third dam, Capp It Off, won several black-type races and produced Miss Slewpy, a multiple graded stakes winner who won at nine furlongs on six occasions and was triumphant in the Ladies Handicap (GII), contested at a mile and one-quarter.

Maryland royalty is present in Vyjack’s tail female line: his fourth dam, Turn Capp, was Maryland Broodmare of the Year in 1996, having produced an abundance of black-type horses: Capp Ice, Capp it Off, Capp the Power, Say Capp, and Twilight Prince. Vyjack is thus a direct descendant of the Reine de Course mare, Chelandry, who is the foundation mare of family 1-n. Other direct descendants of this outstanding racemare and broodmare include Americain – who won the Melbourne Cup (GI) at 3,200 meters (nearly 16 furlongs), Bodemeister – runner-up in last year’s Derby, and Swale – the ill-fated 1984 Derby and Belmont champion.

Vyjack’s sixth dam, Noble Nurse, is sired by Count Fleet – winner of the 1943 Triple Crown that captured the Belmont by 25 lengths – and is out of a daughter of 1937 Triple Crown champion War Admiral – a son of the great Man O’ War. Her granddam is a daughter of Sir Gallahad, sire of a trifecta of Derby winners, including 1930 Triple Crown winner Gallant Fox.

Vyjack’s broodmare sire, Stravinsky, was a brilliant sprinter in Great Britain, but is a son of Nureyev – sire of champion Theatrical, who won several long distance turf races – and the grade one-winning mare Fire the Groom, who won up to a mile and three-sixteenths – the distance of the second leg of the Triple Crown, the Preakness Stakes (GI). Fire the Groom is a daughter of Blushing Groom, one of the finest sires and broodmare sires of the breed. A winner of several championship honors as both racehorse and sire, Blushing Groom excelled at a mile but sired many distance horses, including Nashwan, Rainbow Quest, and Runaway Groom – all of which were grade/group one victors at ten furlongs or more. But perhaps Blushing Groom’s greatest success came as a broodmare sire, as he is the sire of the dams of a wealth of grade/group one winners, including those that have won at ten furlongs or beyond: Flute, Haafhd, and Mezzo Soprano.

Although stamina influences can be found in Vyjack’s bloodlines, you have to search diligently to find them and they are greatly overshadowed by forces of speed. To add to the doubts surrounding Vyjack is his ability to take to Churchill Down’s surface, as he has only competed at Aqueduct. Fortunately, the gelding will have approximately two weeks to adapt to the dirt beneath the twin spires.

Despite having many circumstances stacked against him, Vyjack does bring many advantages to the Derby. The gelding is a very versatile runner, as he can set the pace, press the pace, settle just off the pace, or close from far back. This versatility should serve as a benefit for Vyjack in the Run for the Roses. Furthermore, he possesses not only pure talent, but an outstanding determination to win. Regardless of how great Vyjack’s chances are at Derby glory, it’s hard not to cheer for a horse with a story like his. I encourage you to read his story in the words of the great turf writer Steve Haskin here.

Derby Hopeful: Overanalyze

Derby Hopefuls feature the horses I view as the best contenders leading up to the Kentucky Derby. Each horse spotlighted in a Derby Hopeful will join the 2013 PTG Derby Hopeful roster, found on the right side of the blog. Horses will be listed in an order that corresponds to how highly I think of them, with the horse I think most highly of ranking at the top. A horse featured in a Derby Hopeful may be taken off the roster if its performances after its article are published are not up to par or if that horse is taken off the Triple Crown trail, though those articles will remain on my blog.

Mike Repole and Todd Pletcher have been a dynamic duo in the sport of racing over the past handful of years. Carrying the bright blue and orange silks of Repole Stable and the trademark white bridle of the Pletcher barn, many popular horses have raced for this team in recent years: Caixa Eletronica, Calibrachoa, Stay Thirsty, and Uncle Mo among them. The racing world has come to know the party atmosphere the enthusiastic Repole brings to the races, but can one even imagine how he would react to one of his horse’s winning the Kentucky Derby (GI)?

Repole has already made the trip to Louisville when he brought two colts in 2011, but it ended in great disappointment when his Eclipse champion, Uncle Mo, was scratched prior to the race and his future multiple grade one winner, Stay Thirsty, finished twelfth. But Repole has a chance to overshadow his experience at the 2011 Kentucky Derby with Overanalyze, a colt the co-founder and former president of Vitaminwater acquired for $380,000 at the 2011 Keeneland September Yearling Sale.

Overanalyze won at first asking, capturing a five-furlong maiden special weight at Saratoga in August of 2012. Making his graded stakes debut in the seven-furlong Hopeful Stakes (GII) at the Spa, Overanalyze raced off the pace but failed to fire, finishing fourth behind eventual Champion Two-Year-Old Male Shanghai Bobby.

But Overanalyze made a splash in his subsequent race, a 3 ¼-length victory in the six-furlong Futurity Stakes (GII) at Belmont Park. A rough start left Overanalyze several lengths off the leaders, trailing the field down the backstretch. However, he made a stunning rally around the far turn, going widest of all to close in on his rivals. With an impressive turn of foot, the bay colt easily coasted to his first graded stakes conquest.

Making his first start outside of New York at Churchill Downs in the Iroquois Stakes (GIII) next out, Overanalyze raced among the front-running group, though he dropped back, losing position as the field began to enter the far turn of the one-turn mile event. Traveling wide around the bend, Overanalyze seemed to have lost his momentum as the field battled down the homestretch and finished a distant third behind Uncaptured.

Returning to New York for his juvenile finale, Overanalyze took on nine rivals in the nine-furlong Remsen Stakes (GII) at Aqueduct, which would be his two-turn debut. After breaking cleanly from the starting gate, Overanalyze found a position off the leader as he raced wide into the clubhouse turn. Settling just off Delhomme, Overanalyze found himself in a comfortable position as the two-year-olds galloped into the backstretch.

As a steady pace was set, Overanalyze remained content in his stalking position before commencing his rally around the final bend. Struggling to change leads as the field turned for home, Overanalyze seemed hopelessly beaten as Delhomme began to kick clear and Normandy Invasion made a stirring rally on the outside. But he suddenly dug deep, finding more in late stretch to outfinish Normandy Invasion by a nose.

Overanalyze did not begin his sophomore campaign until March 2 in the Gotham Stakes (GIII) at Aqueduct. The colt received an easy trip, rating just off a fairly slow pace. But around the far turn, Overanalyze lost ground and remained flat in the homestretch, finishing fifth.

But a trip to Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby (GI) – a race that has yielded a pair of Kentucky Derby victors and six Preakness Stakes (GI) winners – served as redemption for the colt. Breaking from the ninth gate in a field of ten, Overanalyze was forced to go wide around the initial curve, leaving him to settle several lengths off the leaders down the backside.

Given much space as he galloped contentedly down the backstretch, Rafael Bejarano put Overanalyze into a drive around the far turn and the Todd Pletcher trainee responded with a burst of speed, looming large on the outside. The colt easily took the lead as the field reached the straightaway, coasting to an effortless 4 ¼-length victory reminiscent of his Futurity win as a two-year-old.

Although the final time of 1:51.94 was the slowest final clocking of the nine-furlong Arkansas Derby since 1978, the pace was slow and thus called for a slow final time. This has been a recurrent theme along the Derby trail and therefore shouldn’t be used against Overanalyze in the Run for the Roses, as he is not the only horse that has recorded slow final times in his races.

Overanalyze’s pedigree may lean more towards short distances than long distances, but like Normandy Invasion, he runs like a horse that wants more ground. In addition, further study of his pedigree does provide more hope for his chances at classic distance than a simple glance at his bloodlines.

Overanalyze's pedigree
From pedigreequery.com

His late sire, Dixie Union, was never considered much of a distance horse. Most of his victories came at a sprinting distance, though he did win the nine-furlong Haskell Invitational Handicap (GI). However, the one time he attempted ten furlongs was in the 2000 Travers Stakes (GI), in which he did not rally strongly enough and finished fourth. Dixie Chatter, his multiple grade one-winning son, never won beyond a mile and one-sixteenth and Dixie Union’s brilliant grade one-winning daughter, Hot Dixie Chick, was never victorious at a distance longer than seven furlongs.

But the same distance worry was placed upon a son of Dixie Union during last year’s Triple Crown in Union Rags, who would go on to win the twelve-furlong Belmont Stakes (GI). Other offspring of Dixie Union have shown affinity for distance as well. For instance, four of his son Grasshopper’s five wins came at one mile or farther and he lost to the Kentucky Derby-winning Street Sense by just a half-length in the ten-furlong Travers. Dixie Union also sired Gone Astray, a two-time winner at nine furlongs. In fact, those two nine-furlong wins by Gone Astray came in graded stakes races in which the horse looked capable of going an extra furlong.

Unacloud, Overanalyze's dam, never raced, but has been a rather fruitful producer, foaling not only Overanalyze, but the grade one-winning Meadow Breeze, once a precocious juvenile that won up to the distance of seven furlongs. She is also the dam of the graded stakes-placed Mighty Monsoon. Although Unacloud has mainly excelled with producing sprinters and milers, her sire – Unaccounted For –won at nine furlongs twice. Not only did Unaccounted For defeat Preakness and Belmont winner Tabasco Cat in the  Jim Dandy Stakes (GII, 9F), but he also finished just a length behind the great Cigar in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (GI, 10F) prior to finishing third behind that legend as the second choice in the 1995 Breeders' Cup Classic (GI, 10F). Unaccounted For is a son of Private Account, a direct descendant of the great La Troienne - who is found in the direct tail female line of four Derby winners - that won the Gulfstream Park Handicap (GI, 10F) and the Widener Handicap (GI, 10F) and produced many distance horses, including the legendary Personal Ensign.

Overanalyze's second dam, Cloud's Ambre, only won once – breaking her maiden at six furlongs – and was principally a dam of sprinters. Her sire, Two Punch, has served as a speed influence, and her broodmare sire, Yukon, was chiefly a sire of successful milers, including Overanalyze’s third dam, the multiple stakes-winning Arctic Cloud.

Despite appearing to be rather lacking in outstanding stakes success, Overanalyze’s tail female line traces back to Muzzie II, a mare imported from Great Britain in 1931 that produced the multiple stakes-winning Shot Put – a gelding that equaled and set numerous track records at various distances, including 2 ¾ miles and 2 ¼ miles.

A Rasmussen Factor – or inbreeding to a superior female through siblings – is present in Overanalyze’s pedigree, as the colt is inbred 5 X 5 to Gold Digger through Mr. Prospector and his half-brother, Yukon. Inbreeding to Mr. Prospector himself – which is included in Overanalyze’s bloodlines with a 4 X 4 cross – has been widely successful, being present in the pedigrees of a plethora of grade/group one winners, including the routers Flower Alley, Shadow Cast, and Volponi. Inbreeding to Gold Digger has also been an effective tool in producing talented horses, including Ready’s Gal – a multiple graded stakes winner that won up to nine furlongs – and Kwik – a stakes winner that won up to fourteen furlongs.

And although Overanalyze’s genealogy may appear to be predominantly geared towards nine furlongs or less, the colt is bred on the same cross as the group stakes-winning Menhoubah, winner of the 2,200-meter (approximately 11 furlongs) Italian Oaks.

It must be pointed out that Overanalyze has never won consecutive races, having strung together a win-lose-win-lose pattern. This could be worrisome, as he is entering the Derby with a victory, but this colt also seems to be coming into his own and could certainly end this pattern  - at some point, at the very least. As for the worry his pedigree may generate regarding his distance abilities, despite the many speed influences that reside in his ancestry, he has strong support from stamina forces as well. Moreover, Overanalyze has endured wide trips in many of his races, thus traveling more ground than his rivals. He also finishes as if he would like more ground and therefore could relish the added distance in the Derby.

Derby Hopeful: Verrazano

Derby Hopefuls feature the horses I view as the best contenders leading up to the Kentucky Derby. Each horse spotlighted in a Derby Hopeful will join the 2013 PTG Derby Hopeful roster, found on the right side of the blog. Horses will be listed in an order that corresponds to how highly I think of them, with the horse I think most highly of ranking at the top. A horse featured in a Derby Hopeful may be taken off the roster if its performances after its article are published are not up to par or if that horse is taken off the Triple Crown trail, though those articles will remain on my blog.

It is a recurring theme along the Derby trail: a three-year-old annihilates competition in the early stages of the year at Gulfstream Park, gaining recognition throughout the racing world and igniting a flame that spreads like wildfire as people talk about said horse’s chances at the Kentucky Derby (GI). Frequently, this sophomore is in the hands of Todd Pletcher, considered by many to be among the best trainers in the business, but a man that has only trained a single Derby winner. But this does not prevent such a horse from making waves throughout the familiar road to Louisville.

Their names are fresh in our mind: Gemologist, Uncle Mo, Eskendereya. These three colts are just a select few “Pletcher monsters” that have made a scene at Gulfstream in recent years prior to running in the Wood Memorial Stakes (GI) and earning themselves the attention of the racing world upon their arrival at Churchill Downs for the Derby. But of these three, only Gemologist loaded into the gate for the Kentucky Derby. He finished sixteenth.

Perhaps 2013 is the year this trend will culminate for Pletcher. Verrazano,a colt the trainer unveiled on New Year’s Day, is the latest horse to follow this path, gaining both a plethora of believers and an abundance of doubters along the way.

Named for the Verrazano-Narrows Bridge – once the longest suspension bridge in the world – that connects Staten Island to Brooklyn in New York City, Verrazano debuted in the sleek blue silks of Let’s Go Stable, pressing the pace throughout the six and one-half-furlong event while racing three-wide. Advancing to the vanguard at the top of the stretch, Verrazano took authoritative command of the race, coasting his way to victory and to the undivided attention of the racing world and a position on my watch list. He’d made his name be heard; now he would just have to validate himself as a true top-class athlete.

A month later, Verrazano took on winners for the first time. Leaving the fourth post in a small field of six, the son of More Than Ready immediately galloped to the front, but allowed Gunderman to surpass him on his inside as he rated in second. Tracking that rival down the backstretch of the one-turn mile, Verrazano effortlessly drew even with him as the straightaway gave way to the far turn.

Once he took the lead at the three-eighths pole, there was no looking back. As John Velazquez remained stationary aboard him, the bay colt put several lengths between himself and his adversaries. Appearing as though he was simply out for an easy gallop, Verrazano soared to a breathtaking 16 ¼-length victory, recording an impressive final time of 1:34.80.

Following this breathtaking allowance triumph, an interest in the dark bay colt was purchased by the Coolmore group consisting of Susan Magnier, Derrick Smith, and Michael Tabor, forming a partnership with Let’s Go Stable, who bought the colt for the price of $250,000 at the 2011 Keeneland September Yearling Sale.

Remaining in the state of Florida, Verrazano traveled to Tampa Bay Downs for his graded stakes debut: the Tampa Bay Derby (GII). A minor bobble at the break did not faze him in the least; the Todd Pletcher trainee bounded forward, joining the front-running unit within a matter of strides. Rating along the rail in second around the clubhouse turn, Verrazano was angled to the outside as the field entered the homestretch, accelerating to take the lead on the outside of Falling Sky.

With a narrow advantage over that opponent, Verrazano raced wide, appearing relaxed. The two exchanged the leading position prior to the final turn, but once the track began to curve, Velazquez subtly urged his steed for more, resulting in Verrazano surging forward as the horses galloped around the far bend. Despite a rally from future Blue Grass Stakes (GI) victor Java’s War, Verrazano drew clear from the field under little urging to score by a 3-length margin.

Many felt that Verrazano would need to face at least a slight test before competing in the Kentucky Derby. He was shipped north to Aqueduct in New York for the Wood Memorial Stakes (GI), his final prep for the Run for the Roses and his last chance to prove himself before arriving at Churchill Downs.

Breaking very sharply from the eighth post, Verrazano took an early lead while galloping several paths off the rail as the sophomores headed towards the first turn. Racing wide, Verrazano allowed Chrisandthecapper to take the lead as the horses rounded the curve, permitting that competitor to extend his advantage on the field. But as the horses galloped down the backstretch, Verrazano closed the gap between himself and Christhecapper despite remaining many paths away from the inside rail. Christhecapper set slow fractions, completing the first quarter-mile in 24.89 seconds and the initial half-mile in 49.62.

With a half-mile remaining in the race, Verrazano suddenly shot forward, taking the lead as the field began their run into the far turn. Although he initially put a length on the field, the colt’s rivals grew closer to him around the bend, though Velazquez asked very little of him. Verrazano was a commanding leader as the horses entered the homestretch, but did not kick clear with the authority he had shown in his previous races. Vyjack – then an undefeated multiple graded stakes winner – tested him as Normandy Invasion made an impressive rally on the outside. However, Verrazano managed to dig deep and repel Vyjack, holding off Normandy Invasion’s closing strides by ¾ of a length.

Perhaps Verrazano had to work harder than ever before, but many had wanted the colt to face a test, which is just what he received. He has been criticized for the slow final time of the race, but the overall pace of the race was slow, which typically calls for a slow final time. All in all, the colt displayed the determination that had not been revealed in his previous wide margin victories.

The biggest worry surrounding Verrazano’s ability to be victorious in the Kentucky Derby is his pedigree. Although its ability to carry Verrazano to a ten-furlong win along with his sheer brilliance is suspect, distance indications are intricately laced throughout the lines of Verrazano’s ancestry.

Verrazano's pedigree
From pedigreequery.com

Verrazano’s sire, More Than Ready, was fourth in the 2000 Kentucky Derby after fading in the final stages. A son of Southern Halo, More Than Ready excelled as a sprinter, with all of his victories – four of which were at the graded stakes level – being contested at seven furlongs or less. The stallion has primarily succeeded with sprinters like himself, but has produced a good number of distance horses, including Benicio – winner of the 2,500-meter (over 1 ½ miles) Victoria Derby (GI); Dreamaway – winner of the 2,400-meter (approximately 1 ½ miles) WATC Derby (GI); Traffic Guard – triumphant in the eleven-furlong August Stakes; and Ready to Lift – a group stakes winner at 2,400 meters.

The Derby trail is not a new scene for Verrazano’s tail female line. His half-brother, El Padrino, was among the top contenders for last year’s Run for the Roses, but finished up the track in thirteenth. Out of the Giant’s Causeway mare Enchanted Rock, Verrazano’s greatest hope for finding the winner’s circle at the end of a ten-furlong event could very well be his broodmare sire. A superior racehorse and sire, Giant’s Causeway won at approximately 1 ¼ miles on three occasions and has produced numerous distance horses, including Fairbanks, Giant Oak, Heatseeker, Hold Me Back, Irish Mission, Mike Fox, North Stream, Red Giant, Shamardal, and Swift Temper. Giant’s Causeway has also found success in siring the dams of distance horses, including the dam of the group one-winning Planteur, in his young broodmare sire career.

Verrazano’s second dam is the grade one-winning Chic Shirine, who also produced the graded stakes-winning sprinter Waldoboro and Tara Roma, a graded stakes winner at 1 ¼ miles. Although Chic Shirine’s sire, Mr. Prospector is a renowned speed influence, he did produce the likes of distance horses Forty Niner and Seeking the Gold, as well as the dams of routers such as Mineshaft and Rock Hard Ten. Verrazano is inbred to Mr. Prospector 4 X 3 and though the great horse is a major force of speed, inbreeding to Mr. Prospector has been an effective tool in producing distance horses, including the grade one winners Flower Alley, Shadow Cast, and Volponi.

From an excellent female family, the third dam of Verrazano is Too Chic, a brilliant racemare that won a grade one and set a track record. Although her greatest accomplishments came at a mile and a mile and one-sixteenth, the daughter of Blushing Groom was second in the ten-furlong Alabama Stakes (GI). She was also a spectacular broodmare, producing not only Chic Shirine, but also the champion Queena, who won up to a mile and one-sixteenth, and yielded the runners Brahms – victor of the River City Handicap (GIII, 9F) and the Early Times Hollywood Derby (GI, 9F), La Reina – winner of the Tempted Stakes (GIII, 8F), and Olympic, winner of the ten-furlong Mataji Stakes.

Blushing Groom, Too Chic's sire, is among the finest sires and broodmare sires of the breed. A winner of several championship honors as both racehorse and sire, Blushing Groom excelled at a mile but sired many distance horses, including Nashwan, Rainbow Quest, and Runaway Groom – all of which were grade/group one victors at ten furlongs or more. But perhaps Blushing Groom’s greatest success came as a broodmare sire, as he is the sire of the dams of a wealth of grade/group one winners, including those that have won at ten furlongs or beyond: Flute, Haafhd, and Mezzo Soprano. Blushing Groom appears in the bottom side of Verrazano’s pedigree twice, being the sire of Giant’s Causeway’s broodmare sire, Rahy.

Verrazano’s fourth and fifth dams, Remedia and French champion Monade, respectively, are both Reine De Course mares. Monade, a classy daughter of French 2,000 Guineas winner Klairon, is inbred to the two-time Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe hero, Ksar, who was once the richest racehorse in the world. This is only further evidence of the strong French influence in Verrazano’s tail female line.

Since day one, Verrazano has exhibited spine-chilling brilliance. His short but undefeated record – filled with primarily dominant performances – has yielded controversy over the colt, with a line dividing his steadfast supporters and persistent skeptics. But it cannot be denied that Verrazano exudes talent and though his pedigree may create worry that ten furlongs is beyond his limit, his ancestry does include multiple indications that longer distances are within Verrazano's realm. A colt carrying an excess of questions, we won’t know who the real Verrazano is until the first Saturday in May.

Diary of Dexter: Reunited

In the summer of 2012, my first off-the-track Thoroughbred, Wet Paint (A.K.A. Dexter) departed my home for “boot camp” with my older sister. He had been showing behavioral issues while being ridden and as a result, he found himself under my sister’s care as she worked on his problems. Other than a pair of very brief visits, I spent months away from my very first Thoroughbred.

But circumstances lined up in an order that resulted in Dexter returning home. On the day he returned, I arrived home and instead of going into the house first, I immediately went to greet him. Exhibiting the same “puppy personality” he has shown since I first met him, Dexter plodded towards me, allowing me to rub his face.

Dexter
Photo by Mary Cage (iPhone photo)

Two days later, I led Dexter into the barn for our first ride in countless months. Trudging along as if he’d just galloped five miles, I saddled Dexter – an eight-year-old gelding sired by Chelsey Cat (by Storm Cat) and out of a Lost Code mare – before leading him into the round pen to longe him.

As expected, Dexter’s lazy attitude had been an act. Cantering around the ring at full speed, I longed Dexter for several minutes before I finally climbed aboard him. As I settled into the saddle, I thought back to when I very first rode him, when the initial thought that ran through my mind was, “Wow. I’m riding my very own Thoroughbred.”

With a smile, our ride began. Although Dexter did display hints of old bad habits, he behaved rather well and cantered better than ever before. As it had in the past, his canter filled me with joy, making me feel alive as his red mane whipped in wind before me as we rode around.

To end the ride, Dexter and I had a little fun going over a small log – used for a practice trail course – lying on the ground in the pasture. We began crossing it at just a walk before moving up to a trot and, eventually, a canter. It was incredibly fun.

After his ride, I gave Dexter a long bath underneath the warm April sun. His red coat, now soaked, gleamed a dark mahogany. Once he had dried, I turned him out, but not before allowing him to visit Miss Fifty. The two eagerly touched noses and I couldn’t help but think they could be swapping stories of their racing days.

Fifty and Dexter
Photo by Mary Cage (iPhone photo)

It is a joy to not only have Dexter back, but to know that he and Fifty practically live in my backyard. It has always been a dream of mine to own an ex-racehorse and now I have two – both of which are very special horses that are dear to my heart.

HRN: Remember Me Rescue's Fundraiser for OTTBs

I would not normally post on this blog when I have published a new blog post on my Horse Racing Nation blog, but this is a special occasion.

"The words majestic, fierce, and athletic are among the words that spring into one’s mind when trying to describe the Thoroughbred racehorse. Not skin and bones, malnourished, ill, and near-death. But when Donna Keen, founder of Remember Me Rescue, looked at the scene before her on a ranch in San Marcos, Texas in the fall of 2012, she saw an abundance of Thoroughbreds that fit the latter description.


Nine of these horses were transported to Remember Me Rescue about three hours away, where they were nursed back to health. While these horses stayed at Remember Me, Keen formed the idea of a training challenge for off-the-track Thoroughbreds, an idea inspired partially by the Extreme Mustang Makeover. And so it all began.


The idea blossomed into a huge planning process for an event that is now creating great waves of anticipation and excitement. With Remember Me’s development of an all-Thoroughbred horse show in the spring of 2013 already in the works, the training challenge was added to the horse show plans with the name “Battle of the X’s, OTTB Trainer Challenge.” On April 27, Remember Me Rescue will host the all-Thoroughbred horse show, followed by the training challenge, at Will Rogers Memorial Center in Fort Worth, Texas – one of the most historic multi-purpose venues in the state of Texas. . ."


Read more here.