Derby Hopeful: Overanalyze

Derby Hopefuls feature the horses I view as the best contenders leading up to the Kentucky Derby. Each horse spotlighted in a Derby Hopeful will join the 2013 PTG Derby Hopeful roster, found on the right side of the blog. Horses will be listed in an order that corresponds to how highly I think of them, with the horse I think most highly of ranking at the top. A horse featured in a Derby Hopeful may be taken off the roster if its performances after its article are published are not up to par or if that horse is taken off the Triple Crown trail, though those articles will remain on my blog.

Mike Repole and Todd Pletcher have been a dynamic duo in the sport of racing over the past handful of years. Carrying the bright blue and orange silks of Repole Stable and the trademark white bridle of the Pletcher barn, many popular horses have raced for this team in recent years: Caixa Eletronica, Calibrachoa, Stay Thirsty, and Uncle Mo among them. The racing world has come to know the party atmosphere the enthusiastic Repole brings to the races, but can one even imagine how he would react to one of his horse’s winning the Kentucky Derby (GI)?

Repole has already made the trip to Louisville when he brought two colts in 2011, but it ended in great disappointment when his Eclipse champion, Uncle Mo, was scratched prior to the race and his future multiple grade one winner, Stay Thirsty, finished twelfth. But Repole has a chance to overshadow his experience at the 2011 Kentucky Derby with Overanalyze, a colt the co-founder and former president of Vitaminwater acquired for $380,000 at the 2011 Keeneland September Yearling Sale.

Overanalyze won at first asking, capturing a five-furlong maiden special weight at Saratoga in August of 2012. Making his graded stakes debut in the seven-furlong Hopeful Stakes (GII) at the Spa, Overanalyze raced off the pace but failed to fire, finishing fourth behind eventual Champion Two-Year-Old Male Shanghai Bobby.

But Overanalyze made a splash in his subsequent race, a 3 ¼-length victory in the six-furlong Futurity Stakes (GII) at Belmont Park. A rough start left Overanalyze several lengths off the leaders, trailing the field down the backstretch. However, he made a stunning rally around the far turn, going widest of all to close in on his rivals. With an impressive turn of foot, the bay colt easily coasted to his first graded stakes conquest.

Making his first start outside of New York at Churchill Downs in the Iroquois Stakes (GIII) next out, Overanalyze raced among the front-running group, though he dropped back, losing position as the field began to enter the far turn of the one-turn mile event. Traveling wide around the bend, Overanalyze seemed to have lost his momentum as the field battled down the homestretch and finished a distant third behind Uncaptured.

Returning to New York for his juvenile finale, Overanalyze took on nine rivals in the nine-furlong Remsen Stakes (GII) at Aqueduct, which would be his two-turn debut. After breaking cleanly from the starting gate, Overanalyze found a position off the leader as he raced wide into the clubhouse turn. Settling just off Delhomme, Overanalyze found himself in a comfortable position as the two-year-olds galloped into the backstretch.

As a steady pace was set, Overanalyze remained content in his stalking position before commencing his rally around the final bend. Struggling to change leads as the field turned for home, Overanalyze seemed hopelessly beaten as Delhomme began to kick clear and Normandy Invasion made a stirring rally on the outside. But he suddenly dug deep, finding more in late stretch to outfinish Normandy Invasion by a nose.

Overanalyze did not begin his sophomore campaign until March 2 in the Gotham Stakes (GIII) at Aqueduct. The colt received an easy trip, rating just off a fairly slow pace. But around the far turn, Overanalyze lost ground and remained flat in the homestretch, finishing fifth.

But a trip to Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby (GI) – a race that has yielded a pair of Kentucky Derby victors and six Preakness Stakes (GI) winners – served as redemption for the colt. Breaking from the ninth gate in a field of ten, Overanalyze was forced to go wide around the initial curve, leaving him to settle several lengths off the leaders down the backside.

Given much space as he galloped contentedly down the backstretch, Rafael Bejarano put Overanalyze into a drive around the far turn and the Todd Pletcher trainee responded with a burst of speed, looming large on the outside. The colt easily took the lead as the field reached the straightaway, coasting to an effortless 4 ¼-length victory reminiscent of his Futurity win as a two-year-old.

Although the final time of 1:51.94 was the slowest final clocking of the nine-furlong Arkansas Derby since 1978, the pace was slow and thus called for a slow final time. This has been a recurrent theme along the Derby trail and therefore shouldn’t be used against Overanalyze in the Run for the Roses, as he is not the only horse that has recorded slow final times in his races.

Overanalyze’s pedigree may lean more towards short distances than long distances, but like Normandy Invasion, he runs like a horse that wants more ground. In addition, further study of his pedigree does provide more hope for his chances at classic distance than a simple glance at his bloodlines.

Overanalyze's pedigree
From pedigreequery.com

His late sire, Dixie Union, was never considered much of a distance horse. Most of his victories came at a sprinting distance, though he did win the nine-furlong Haskell Invitational Handicap (GI). However, the one time he attempted ten furlongs was in the 2000 Travers Stakes (GI), in which he did not rally strongly enough and finished fourth. Dixie Chatter, his multiple grade one-winning son, never won beyond a mile and one-sixteenth and Dixie Union’s brilliant grade one-winning daughter, Hot Dixie Chick, was never victorious at a distance longer than seven furlongs.

But the same distance worry was placed upon a son of Dixie Union during last year’s Triple Crown in Union Rags, who would go on to win the twelve-furlong Belmont Stakes (GI). Other offspring of Dixie Union have shown affinity for distance as well. For instance, four of his son Grasshopper’s five wins came at one mile or farther and he lost to the Kentucky Derby-winning Street Sense by just a half-length in the ten-furlong Travers. Dixie Union also sired Gone Astray, a two-time winner at nine furlongs. In fact, those two nine-furlong wins by Gone Astray came in graded stakes races in which the horse looked capable of going an extra furlong.

Unacloud, Overanalyze's dam, never raced, but has been a rather fruitful producer, foaling not only Overanalyze, but the grade one-winning Meadow Breeze, once a precocious juvenile that won up to the distance of seven furlongs. She is also the dam of the graded stakes-placed Mighty Monsoon. Although Unacloud has mainly excelled with producing sprinters and milers, her sire – Unaccounted For –won at nine furlongs twice. Not only did Unaccounted For defeat Preakness and Belmont winner Tabasco Cat in the  Jim Dandy Stakes (GII, 9F), but he also finished just a length behind the great Cigar in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (GI, 10F) prior to finishing third behind that legend as the second choice in the 1995 Breeders' Cup Classic (GI, 10F). Unaccounted For is a son of Private Account, a direct descendant of the great La Troienne - who is found in the direct tail female line of four Derby winners - that won the Gulfstream Park Handicap (GI, 10F) and the Widener Handicap (GI, 10F) and produced many distance horses, including the legendary Personal Ensign.

Overanalyze's second dam, Cloud's Ambre, only won once – breaking her maiden at six furlongs – and was principally a dam of sprinters. Her sire, Two Punch, has served as a speed influence, and her broodmare sire, Yukon, was chiefly a sire of successful milers, including Overanalyze’s third dam, the multiple stakes-winning Arctic Cloud.

Despite appearing to be rather lacking in outstanding stakes success, Overanalyze’s tail female line traces back to Muzzie II, a mare imported from Great Britain in 1931 that produced the multiple stakes-winning Shot Put – a gelding that equaled and set numerous track records at various distances, including 2 ¾ miles and 2 ¼ miles.

A Rasmussen Factor – or inbreeding to a superior female through siblings – is present in Overanalyze’s pedigree, as the colt is inbred 5 X 5 to Gold Digger through Mr. Prospector and his half-brother, Yukon. Inbreeding to Mr. Prospector himself – which is included in Overanalyze’s bloodlines with a 4 X 4 cross – has been widely successful, being present in the pedigrees of a plethora of grade/group one winners, including the routers Flower Alley, Shadow Cast, and Volponi. Inbreeding to Gold Digger has also been an effective tool in producing talented horses, including Ready’s Gal – a multiple graded stakes winner that won up to nine furlongs – and Kwik – a stakes winner that won up to fourteen furlongs.

And although Overanalyze’s genealogy may appear to be predominantly geared towards nine furlongs or less, the colt is bred on the same cross as the group stakes-winning Menhoubah, winner of the 2,200-meter (approximately 11 furlongs) Italian Oaks.

It must be pointed out that Overanalyze has never won consecutive races, having strung together a win-lose-win-lose pattern. This could be worrisome, as he is entering the Derby with a victory, but this colt also seems to be coming into his own and could certainly end this pattern  - at some point, at the very least. As for the worry his pedigree may generate regarding his distance abilities, despite the many speed influences that reside in his ancestry, he has strong support from stamina forces as well. Moreover, Overanalyze has endured wide trips in many of his races, thus traveling more ground than his rivals. He also finishes as if he would like more ground and therefore could relish the added distance in the Derby.

Juvenile Spotlight: He's Had Enough and Spurious Precision

Just a matter of minutes apart, a pair of two-year-old colts turned in impressive performances, stamping themselves as serious potential superstars. Though racing at different levels, both colts won at the premier summer meet on their side of the country, signing their names in the book of two-year-olds to watch.

He’s Had Enough

With his name and connections, one can’t help but remember the victor of this year’s Kentucky Derby (GI) and Preakness Stakes (GI), I’ll Have Another. Perhaps his name is in reference to cookies as well, or maybe not… No matter what his name refers to, this is a talented colt.

Going to post in a maiden special weight at Del Mar, He’s Had Enough broke poorly from the fourth gate with Garrett Gomez aboard and thus found himself behind the majority of the field, running nearly ten lengths off the frontrunner. With not a single horse beaten in the opening stages in the race, it was clear that He’s Had Enough had his work cut out for him. He shortly passed one horse, but continued to be far off the front end.

Gradually, the light gray colt grew closer to the leaders and as Gomez set to work aboard him midway through the far turn, it was clear that He’s Had Enough was ready to make up ground. Suddenly, the colt gained much speed and was pulled to the outside by Gomez with sights set on the lead. Despite being forced to go five-wide, the colt found his best stride at the top of the stretch and wore down Caballo Del Cielo. Though he ran greenly, He’s Had Enough flew past Caballo Del Cielo in the final strides as Gomez sat still.

Bred for early success, He’s Had Enough is a son of Tapit – the sire of 2011 Champion Two-Year-Old Male Hansen, as well as 2008 Champion Two-Year-Old Filly Stardom Bound. Tapit is also the sire of such grade one winners as Careless Jewel, Tapitsfly, and Zazu. Tapit is a son of Pulpit, who is also the sire of the successful stallion Sky Mesa. Pulpit is of course a son of the great A.P. Indy, the sire of twenty-six grade one winners, including Bernardini, Flashing, Mineshaft, Little Belle, Music Note, and Rags to Riches. The A.P. Indy sire line from which He’s Had Enough descends has been highly successful, as A.P. Indy is also the sire of such productive studs as Bernardini, Congrats, Malibu Moon, Mineshaft, and Stephen Got Even. 

He’s Had Enough’s dam is the black-type-winning Amelia, who has also produced the black-type-winning Kindergarden Kid and the track record-setting Tiz True. Amelia is a half-sister to the group stakes-winning Bertolini and the stakes-winning Alchemilla. Her granddam is Reine De Course mare and 1983 Broodmare of the Year, Courtly Dee, who produced an incredible seven graded stakes winners, including the champion Althea, as well as two graded stakes-placed horses. Other direct descendants of Courtly Dee include the grade one-winning horses Acoma, Balletto, and Arch, as well as the champion Festival of Light.

With Dixieland Band as his damsire, He’s Had Enough shares the same broodmare sire as the grade one winners Diamondrella, Monarchos, Southern Image, and Street Sense, as well as the graded stakes winners Blues and Royals, Eight Belles, Freefourinternet, Queen of Wilshire, and Secret Circle.

He’s Had Enough’s pedigree suggests that he will be able to stretch out to longer distances and with Alydar, A.P. Indy, Northern Dancer, and Unbridled – all horses who succeeded at classic distances – in just the first three generations of his pedigree, he certainly has a chance to be victorious at classic distances in the future. Perhaps he can follow in the footsteps of I’ll Have Another.

Spurious Precision

Last year, Union Rags frolicked en route to an easy win in the Saratoga Special Stakes (GII). The son of Dixie Union would go on to win the Belmont Stakes (GI). On August 12, a grandson of Dixie Union, Spurious Precision, easily won the Saratoga Special.

Spurious Precision has even more distance limitations in his pedigree than people believed Union Rags had. His sire, High Cotton, never won beyond a mile and one-sixteenth and when he attempted ten furlongs, he was defeated by 18 ¾ lengths. In addition, he has primarily been successful with siring sprinters, such as Currency Swap and Tarpy’s Goal.

The dam of Spurious Precision, Scarlet Combo, never won at a distance longer than six and one-half furlongs. In addition, she is a half-sister to the multiple stakes-winning sprinter Volterra, as well as the stakes-winning middle-distance horses Ennisbeg and Wolark.

Though Spurious Precision’s pedigree doesn’t hint for much of a future at routing, it does hint that he could become a successful racehorse – a feat he has already accomplished. After easily winning his debut at Saratoga last month, Spurious Precision went off as the heavy favorite in the Special.

Breaking sharply from gate three, Alan Garcia’s mount went straight to the lead, holding a half-length advantage over Southern Honor. Racing a few paths off the rail, the colt set a blistering first quarter of 21.35 while continuing to lead. Into the far turn, Spurious Precision maintained his half-length lead while Garcia remained stationary aboard him.

With a half-mile in an astounding 44.02, Spurious Precision had every right to fade as the field turned for home. Rather, he began to kick clear despite a rally from Drum Roll. His rivals chased after him, but the speedy colt would let no one by. In the final stages, he continued to draw away, crossing the wire in hand to triumph by five lengths.

Spurious Precision is clearly a brilliant individual and I believe he has a bright future should he be restricted to sprints and middle distances. The Special has of course launched the successful sprinters Henny Hughes and Kodiak Kowboy. We shall see what the future holds for him!

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Union Rags: Another Matz Superstar

With some paragraphs drawn from Derby Hopeful: Union Rags

The sun shone down on the crowd gathered at Churchill Downs as fans awaited the next race, the Breeders’ Cup Mile (GI). Regally Ready had just flashed across the finish line en route to the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (GII) and many people milled around the winner's circle following the race. Among those people was Michael Matz, whose brilliant juvenile colt, Union Rags, would run later that day in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI).

Meanwhile, I stood nearby with my family. I caught sight of Matz, who had been one of my favorite trainers since 2006, when he had trained the ill-fated Barbaro to a brilliant Kentucky Derby (GI) victory. Not only do I respect him for his brilliance at training, but I admire him for the talent he displayed in his Hall of Fame equestrian career and the courage and compassion he showed in saving the lives of four children after a plane crash in 1989.

Photo by Mary Cage

I clutched my program and a Sharpie and walked toward Michael Matz, asking him for his autograph. Very graciously, he smiled and signed beside Union Rags’ name in my program. Before parting ways, I wished him luck.

Of course, Union Rags fell just a head short to Hansen later that day in the Juvenile, drifting out in the stretch while closing. Though Hansen was presented the Eclipse Award for Champion Two-Year-Old Male, many – including me – felt that Union Rags was the most talented juvenile of 2011.

The colt debuted at Delaware Park last July as one of seven first-time starters in the nine-horse field. Sent off at nearly 8-1, Phyllis Wyeth’s colt settled in seventh as the horses began their run down the backstretch in the five-furlong maiden special weight. Jockey Julian Pimentel asked the two-year-old to make his run around the far turn and Union Rags responded eagerly, making an impressive move as the juveniles grew closer to the homestretch. His powerful stride ate up ground as Pimentel urged the colt forward and with an imposing turn of foot, Union Rags swept past Jake N Elwood near the furlong pole to win by 1 ¾ lengths in a final time of 58.25. The final eighth of a mile was run in 12.14 seconds.

After his excellent debut, his connections pointed Union Rags to the Three Chimneys Saratoga Special Stakes (GII) at the renowned Saratoga Race Course. Over a very sloppy track, Union Rags broke from the rail and raced alongside three other horses as the juveniles galloped along the backstretch. Ridden by Javier Castellano for the first time, the bay colt edged away with the favorite, Stat, as the two-year-olds entered the turn. The two ran neck and neck until the field reached the top of the stretch. Then Union Rags accelerated over the sealed track and drew away under Castellano despite drifting out badly in deep stretch. He crossed the wire 7 ¼ lengths ahead of the rest of the field, immediately appearing on plenty of watch lists, including mine.

To solidify his position as the leading two-year-old colt in the nation, Union Rags made his final start before the Breeders’ Cup in the esteemed Champagne Stakes (GI) at Belmont Park. As the juvenile colts galloped down the backstretch in the one-turn mile, Union Rags settled in mid-pack and was forced to take up slightly when he came in contact with Takes the Gold. He recovered quickly, quickening as the horses entered the final half-mile. Castellano guided the talented colt through traffic on the far turn, nearly taking the path along the rail until an opening appeared and the pair aimed for the lead on the outside. With his beautiful stride carrying him over fast track, Union Rags effortlessly opened up on the field and swept across the finish line with 5 ¼ lengths separating him and the others.

Photo by Mary Cage

The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile seemed like his for the taking, but Hansen kept Union Rags from wearing the blanket of flowers in the Churchill Downs winner’s circle. Breaking from post ten in a thirteen-horse field, Union Rags broke smoothly and made his way to the middle of the pack. Due to his post position, the colt was forced to race very wide throughout the race. Castellano asked him for more speed as the two-year-old colts swept into the final turn and Union Rags responded, going widest of all. At the top of the stretch, it seemed as if he could catch the front-running Hansen, but he drifted out in the homestretch and finished a head behind Hansen before galloping out ahead of the winner.

Union Rags finished second in Eclipse Award voting for Champion Two-Year-Old Male, but was made the early favorite for the Kentucky Derby. He solidified that title on February 26 in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes (GII) at Gulfstream Park. Though the race had lost much luster after the scratch of the Holy Bull Stakes (GIII) winner, Algorithms, it also featured blossoming horses like the stakes-placed Casual Trick, the clear winner of two races at Calder in Csaba, the extremely impressive two-time winner in just as many starts in Discreet Dancer, the multiple stakes-winning Fort Loudon, the hard-knocking Neck ‘n Neck, and the promising News Pending. After breaking cleanly from the gate, Union Rags settled off the pace and though he was challenged at the end of the clubhouse turn by News Pending, he continued to rate under Julien Leparoux – who was riding him for the first time. Around the far turn, his long, powerful strides carried him to the lead, which would flourish into an effortless four-length victory in which the whip never touched him.

Of course, one of the major concerns revolving a Derby contender is the horse’s ability to stretch out. Though his pedigree does not scream distance, it does not restrict him to races under a mile and one-quarter, either.

His late sire, Dixie Union, was never considered much of a distance horse. Most of his victories came at a sprinting distance, though he won the nine-furlong Haskell Invitational Handicap (GI). However, the one time he attempted ten furlongs was in the 2000 Travers Stakes (GI), in which he did not rally strongly enough and finished fourth. Dixie Chatter, his multiple grade one-winning son, never won beyond a mile and one-sixteenth and Dixie Union’s brilliant grade one-winning daughter, Hot Dixie Chick, was never victorious at a distance longer than seven furlongs.

However, some Dixie Union offspring have shown affinity for distance. For instance, four of Grasshopper’s five wins came at one mile or farther and he lost to the Kentucky Derby-winning Street Sense by just a half-length in the ten-furlong Travers. Dixie Union also sired Gone Astray, a two-time winner at nine furlongs. In fact, those two nine-furlong wins by Gone Astray came in graded stakes races in which the horse looked capable of going an extra furlong.

Union Rags’ dam, Tempo, is by the influential sire, Gone West, a son of Mr. Prospector who won three graded stakes races at one mile or longer. He also sired many talented distance horses, such as Pacific Classic (GI, 10 furlongs)-winning Came Home, Belmont Stakes (GI, 12 furlongs)-winning Commendable, Breeders’ Cup Turf (GI, 12 furlongs)-winning Johar, and Pattison Canadian International Stakes (GI, 12 furlongs)- and Northern Dancer Turf Stakes (GI, 12 furlongs)-winning Marsh Side. In addition, he is the sire of Elusive Quality, sire of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes (GI)-winning Smarty Jones.

Tempo’s grandsire is Nijinsky II, winner of the 1970 English Triple Crown who sired many distance horses, including the winner of the 1986 Kentucky Derby and the 1987 Breeders’ Cup Classic (GI, 10F) in Ferdinand, the winner of the 1983 Prix du Jockey Club (GI, 10.5F) and International Stakes (GI, 10.5F) in Caerleon, and the winner of the ten-furlong Canadian Maturity Stakes and Seagram Cup Handicap, the Rothmans Ltd. International Stakes (GI, 12F), the Early Times Manhattan Handicap (GII, 10F), the Arlington Handicap (GII, 10F), and the Turf Classic Invitational Stakes (GI, 12F) in Sky Classic.

Tempo has also produced the stakes-placed Geefour, a full brother to Union Rags. Tempo is a half-sister to the multiple graded stakes-placed Dancing Devlette – who was capable of winning at nine furlongs – and the multiple ungraded stakes-winning and graded stakes-placed Marry Me Do – who was also successful at nine furlongs. Through Tempo, Union Rags hails from female family number thirteen, the same family that produced the winner of the 1977 Triple Crown, Seattle Slew.

Though Union Rags’ pedigree may give one reason to doubt his ability to get the Derby distance, the colt has undeniable heart and brilliance. His long, authoritative stride shows that Union Rags could likely handle more ground, as does the way he effortlessly pulls away from fields.

You can always find at least one fault in a Derby contender. Union Rags has his own share of them, most notably the room for doubt in his pedigree as far as stamina is concerned. However, he has arguably been the most impressive horse on the Kentucky Derby trail yet this year. Racings fans have every right to be excited about him. Michael Matz has already had a horse in his stable that captured the hearts of racing fans; who's to say he can't have another one?

Union Rags
Photo: Terri Cage

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