Eleven Thoroughbreds have swept
the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, and
Belmont Stakes to become one of racing’s elite Triple Crown winners. Eleven Thoroughbreds
have won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness prior to falling short in the Belmont
since the most recent Triple Crown champion. It is safe to say that enthusiasm
and disappointment have been recurring themes throughout the past thirty-three
Triple Crowns.
Our last memory of the Triple Crown being conquered is Affirmed’s narrow victory over
rival Alydar in the 1978 Belmont Stakes. Since then, there have been eighteen
horses that have won just two legs of the Triple Crown – one of those horses
still has one jewel left to go.
Ever since I’ll Have Another followed up his Kentucky Derby victory with a win
in the Preakness, excitement has been building. On Saturday, it will be soaring
through the roof. The colt is in pursuit of becoming the first Triple Crown
winner since Affirmed in 1978. America will have their eyes on I’ll Have
Another, but though fans are eager for his chance to win, they have their
guards up, because for over three decades, we have been let down. Is 2012 the
year?
Listed below are all of the
horses entered to run in the 2012 Belmont Stakes, along with descriptions of
their pedigrees, racing records, final preparations, and my opinions of them.
The colts are listed in post position order.
#1. Street Life: The sire of this
colt is Street Sense, a two-time grade one winner at ten furlongs. His
grandsire, Street Cry, is also the sire of the great Zenyatta, who was also
victorious at ten furlongs, and Shocking, who won the near-16-furlong Melbourne
Cup (GI). Street Life’s broodmare sire, Grindstone, won the 1996 Kentucky Derby
and is a son of Unbridled, who sired Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker.
Grindstone himself produced a Belmont victor in Birdstone, who also sired a
Belmont champion in Summer Bird.
A colt I have followed since he broke his maiden, Street Life garnered his
first career victory in his second race while making an impressive late rally
to take a mile and seventy yards maiden special weight at Aqueduct. Following a
closing win in the mile and one-sixteenth Broad Brush on the same track, Street
Life finished sixth in the Wood Memorial Stakes (GI) after having too much
ground to make up and not changing leads until late in the stretch. He then finished
third in the nine-furlong Peter Pan Stakes (GII), making up much ground to
close impressively before running out of room late. He looked like he was ready
to keep going.
Street Life has been working at Belmont Park, posting mostly five-furlong
breezes. His final work was a 1:01.15 five-furlong work in company. The colt
has also had several strong gallops over the track.
Street Life will need to step it up on Saturday, but his pedigree and running
style support him in his ability to get the twelve-furlong distance of the
Belmont. He is a threat, but he will have to bring his A-game. For more on
Street Life, please click here.
#2. Unstoppable U: This Ken McPeek trainee
is sired by Exchange Rate, a horse who never won beyond a mile and
one-sixteenth and was primarily successful as a sprinter. Exchange Rate is a
lucrative sire of middle distance runners and sprinters. Though Unstoppable U’s
dam never won beyond one mile, the colt’s damsire is Point Given, a son of
Kentucky Derby and Belmont winner Thunder Gulch who won the Belmont by 12 ¼
lengths in the same final time that Affirmed captured the race, 2:26.80 – the
sixth-fastest in history. Notably, the sire of Unstoppable U’s granddam is
Triple Crown champion Seattle Slew.
Unstoppable U has only started twice, winning a six-furlong maiden at Aqueduct
in late March prior to easily winning a one-mile allowance optional claiming at
Belmont at the end of April. A twelve-furlong classic is an enormous step up
for the colt.
His final work was an unremarkable 1:02.05 five-furlong work at Belmont on
Sunday – a breeze that McPeek was not thrilled with. This is quite discouraging.
Though Unstoppable U should receive some stamina from his dam side, he is
lacking plenty of it and two one-turn races, along with a string of four- and
five-furlong works, certainly do not prepare him for twelve furlongs. A good
race from Unstoppable U in the Belmont would be surprising.
#3. Union Rags: The
sire of Union Rags, Dixie Union, was winless beyond nine furlongs and faded to
finish fourth in his single ten-furlong attempt and is more useful as a sire of
middle distance horses or sprinters. The colt’s dam is sired by Gone West, who
produced multiple distance horses, including Belmont Stakes winner Commendable.
Though his dam only won at six furlongs, Union Rags’ second dam was capable of
winning graded stakes up to twelve furlongs. With horses such as Nijinsky, Seattle
Slew, and Secretariat found in his pedigree, the distance may not be as much of
a question as many believe it is.
Union Rags has shown that he needs a clean trip, but when he gets one, he is
absolutely brilliant and difficult to defeat. He has not won since his
spectacular Fountain of Youth Stakes (GII) victory in February, but he made
good rallies in both the Florida Derby (GI) and the Kentucky Derby.
Union Rags has prepped for the Belmont at Fair Hill Training Center in Maryland
and seems to be maturing. His most recent work was a bullet 59-flat
five-furlong move over the dirt training track at Fair Hill, in which new rider
John Velazquez was aboard. I would have preferred for him to have training time
at Belmont, but he clearly has an affinity for the track, as he impressively
won the Champagne Stakes (GI) there as a two-year-old.
Though there is some doubt in his pedigree as far as distance is concerned,
Union Rags’ action and brilliance just may provide him with the ability to get
the distance. Many have viewed him as overrated, but I believe he has become
underrated. But Union Rags has several questions to answer in the Belmont. For
more on Union Rags, please click here.
#4. Atigun: This colt’s sire, Istan, never
won beyond a mile and a sixteenth, though he is by Gone West, who sired
multiple grade one winners at the twelve-furlong distance of the Belmont,
including Belmont victor Commendable. In addition, Atigun’s most successful
half-sibling, Rimini Rebel, never won at a distance farther than a mile and
one-sixteenth. However, his damsire is Dynaformer, who is a great stamina
influence in a Thoroughbred’s pedigree. But the appearance of speedy horses
such as Devil’s Bag and Dr. Fager on the dam side of Atigun’s pedigree do not
bode well for his chance at a mile and one-half.
Atigun is winless in stakes company, only having a maiden special weight and
two allowance optional claiming victories to his credit. He’s never finished in
the money in a stakes race, his best performances being fifth-place finishes in
the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (GII) and the Arkansas Derby (GI). He has also
never won beyond a mile and one-sixteenth.
Atigun has had plenty of time to get acclimated to Belmont Park, as he has had
four works at the track, including a bullet work for four furlongs. However,
his last two breezes have been at just a half-mile – not exactly a
stamina-building distance.
I do not expect for Atigun to be competitive in Saturday’s Belmont.
#5. Dullahan: As a half-brother to
Mine That Bird, many believe Dullahan is bred through-and-through for the
Belmont. However, Mine That Bird finished a distant third in his Belmont
pursuit, partially as a result of Calvin Borel’s early move. In addition, Mine
That Bird was more thoroughly bred for the twelve-furlong distance, as he was
sired by Belmont victor Birdstone. Dullahan, on the other hand, is by Even the
Score, who never earned a win in a race longer than nine furlongs and only managed
a third in his sole ten-furlong attempt. Even the Score has sired a grade one
winner at ten furlongs in Take the Points, who was beaten 1 ½ lengths at eleven
furlongs. However, Dullahan’s broodmare sire, Smart Strike, was the sire of
English Channel – who won five races at eleven furlongs or longer – and Curlin
– who came within a head of winning the 2007 Belmont Stakes.
Dullahan still remains winless on dirt. Though he has run some very good races
on conventional dirt, he never seems to travel over it as well as he runs over
synthetic. Though many have raved about his rally to attain third in the Derby,
I feel as if he simply just did not have a good enough kick to get there and
did not gallop out as well as I’ll Have Another. In addition, he was drifting
out in late stretch, which is a bit discouraging. However, as a grinder, the
stretch in distance could certainly be to his advantage.
Many have praised Dullahan’s bullet half-mile work that came on Sunday. The
Dale Romans trainee travelled four furlongs in a dazzling 45.97, posting the
fastest of sixty-six works at that distance. Though the work was similar to the
one he posted before his win in the Blue Grass Stakes (GI), there is also a
difference in distances. Prior to the Blue Grass, Dullahan travelled five
furlongs in 57.40 in preparation for the nine-furlong race. On Sunday, he
worked one furlong shorter for a race that is three furlongs longer. However,
the colt did breeze a mile eight days prior and has been galloping at
stamina-building distances.
Dullahan poses a huge spoiler threat in the Belmont. Though not as bred for
stamina as his famous half-brother, he does appear to be able to go the
distance. However, the dirt question still looms menacingly and the Belmont
surface is not particularly kind to horses that prefer synthetics or turf,
though he appears to be handling the track quite well. He is certainly one of
the top Belmont contenders nonetheless. For more on Dullahan, please click here.
#6. Ravelo’s Boy: This colt appears
to be bred more towards one-turn races or middle distances, as his sire is the
late Lawyer Ron, a brilliant horse who never won beyond nine furlongs and was winless
in four tries at ten furlongs. Lawyer Ron’s best offspring is Drill, a colt who
has never been victorious beyond seven furlongs. The dam of Ravelo’s Boy never
won at a distance longer than seven furlongs and is sired by French Deputy, a
horse who never won farther than one mile and finished ninth in his sole
ten-furlong attempt.
In thirteen starts, Ravelo’s Boy has only found the winner’s circle twice, has
never been victorious in a stakes race, and has not raced outside of Florida. He
started ten times as a two-year-old, acquiring his pair of wins then, and has
contested solely in stakes races this year without success. He has not run
since the Tampa Bay Derby (GIII) in March, in which he finished fifth.
Over the past sixty days, Ravelo’s Boy has put together a wide variety of
workouts, spanning from three furlongs to seven, at Calder. His most recent
work was a good six-furlong work in 1:11.80 on Sunday, but I find it
discouraging that he has not had time to grow accustomed to Belmont.
Due to a non-stamina-based pedigree, mediocre racing performances, and little
time to adapt to Belmont, I do not foresee a good race from Ravelo’s Boy in the
Belmont.
#7. Five Sixteen: This colt should receive
stamina from his sire, Invasor, as he captured the third leg of Uruguay’s
Triple Crown, the Gran Premio Nacional (Uruguayan Derby) (GI), at a distance of
2500 meters, which is nearly 12.5 furlongs. However, his broodmare sire, Salt
Lake, was brilliant as a sprinter and as a broodmare sire has been primarily
lucrative in producing horses of the same nature. In fact, the cross on which
Five Sixteen is bred only has an average winning distance of about six and
one-half furlongs.
Five Sixteen did not break his maiden since his fifth start and next out, in
his most recent race, he finished fourth of six in a nine-furlong allowance,
beaten 11 ¾ lengths. Since that disappointing allowance finish, Five Sixteen
has put together a string of five-furlong works at Belmont Park.
I believe all Five Sixteen has going for him is his rider, Rosie Napravnik. I
don’t view him as a threat.
#8. Guyana Star Dweej: By Eddington
and out of a Pine Bluff mare, Guyana Star Dweej has one of the more
stamina-marked pedigrees in the field. Eddington was victorious as far as a
mile and three-sixteenths and finished fourth in the 2004 Belmont. Guyana Star
Dweej’s broodmare sire, Pine Bluff, won the 1992 Preakness prior to finishing third,
beaten just approximately a length by A.P. Indy, in
the Belmont. Guyana Star Dweej’s dam is a half-sister to the winner of the 1994
Breeders’ Cup Classic (10F, GI), Concern. Guyana Star Dweej is truly bred more
along the lines of a ten-furlong runner, but since American horses are not really
bred for twelve-furlongs anymore, this colt has one of the best pedigrees for
the Belmont distance of the entrants.
But Guyana Star Dweej falls short when it comes to racing performances. It took
him nine tries to break his maiden and most recently, he was demolished by
Unstoppable U in an allowance optional claiming in his first effort against
winners.
The colt has been turning in simple half-mile works at Belmont, none of which
have been very impressive. In fact, he has been travelling to the wire more slowly
than he begins the works, as he does not seem to be able to settle.
I do not expect for Guyana Star Dweej to perform very well in the Belmont.
#9. Paynter: This stunning colt can
certainly at least cover ten furlongs. His sire is Awesome Again, winner of the
1998 Breeders’ Cup Classic (GI). Awesome Again has sired multiple grade one
winners at ten furlongs, including Awesome Gem, Game on Dude, Ghostzapper, and
Ginger Punch. Notably, Paynter is out of a full sister to two-time Breeders’
Cup Classic winner Tiznow and is bred on a very similar cross to Ghostzapper.
I have followed Paynter since his debut, which was an easy win in a five and
one-half-furlong maiden special weight at Santa Anita in February. Following a troubled
fourth behind I’ll Have Another in the nine-furlong Santa Anita Derby (GI),
Paynter ran a very good second to Hierro in the one-mile Derby Trial Stakes
(GIII) over a sloppy track at Churchill Downs. On Preakness day, the brilliant
colt trounced an allowance field going a mile and one-sixteenth at Pimlico.
Seeking revenge for stablemate Bodemeister,
Paynter has had two impressive works – both of which were bullets – at Belmont.
The first was an efficient, brisk five furlongs in 59.26 seconds over the
training track, which was the fastest of forty-one works covering the same
conditions. His final work was a seven-furlong work in a notable time of 1:25
flat – a stamina-building work that I find very advantageous.
Though Paynter has been asked of a lot in his brief career, I have always felt
he is a brilliant colt. But contesting in the Belmont Stakes is a huge step up
for him, not only in class but of course in terms of distance and the effect it
could have on him as well.
#10. Optimizer: This colt certainly is
bred for the Belmont. His sire, English Channel, was victorious five times at
races that spanned a distance of eleven furlongs or longer. The dam of
Optimizer, Indy Pick, is sired by none other than the great A.P. Indy, who won
the 1992 Belmont and sired the 2007 winner of final leg of the Triple Crown,
Rags to Riches. Indy Pick has also produced Humdinger, a black-type-placed
winning steeplechaser whose longest winning distance was an incredible three
and one-eighth miles. Optimizer is bred to run all day.
Optimizer, however, has not won since his debut and has not won on dirt – a
situation that is certainly to his disadvantage at Belmont, a very demanding
dirt track. Optimizer has never fared very well against the best of the best,
finishing eighth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI), eleventh in the Kentucky
Derby, and sixth in the Preakness. His rally in the Preakness was decent, but
nothing spectacular.
Optimizer has been posting four- and five-furlong works at Churchill Downs in
preparation for the Belmont. His trainer, a four-time Belmont winner, certainly
knows how to prepare a horse for the final leg of the Triple Crown, though
these works are not very stamina-building.
If anything leads Optimizer to a race in the Belmont that eclipses the ones he
has run recently, it will be his pedigree. Should only one horse handle the
Belmont distance, it would be Optimizer. However, I do not believe he is as
talented as several others in the field.
#11. I’ll Have Another: All eyes will be on him
come Saturday, so while butterflies will run rampant in the stomachs of racing
fans throughout the nation, it may be reassuring to many fans that I’ll Have
Another is about as bred for the Belmont as an American horse can be in this
day and age. His sire, Flower Alley, won the ten-furlong Travers Stakes (GI)
and finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (GI) at the same distance. The
sire of Flower Alley, Distorted Humor, is as close to as stamina-influencing as
sires come in the United States nowadays. Distorted Humor has sired the
Belmont- and Breeders’ Cup Classic-winning Drosselmeyer and the
Kentucky Derby- and Preakness-winning Funny Cide. I’ll
Have Another’s broodmare sire, Arch, is the sire of Breeders’ Cup
Classic-winning Blame and captured the Super Derby (GI) when it was contested
at ten furlongs. I’ll Have Another is also a member of the same stamina-filled
female family as the most recent Triple Crown winner Affirmed – female family
twenty-three.
Undefeated this year, I’ll Have Another has displayed brilliance, confidence,
and determination in his Derby and Preakness wins. Trainer Doug O’Neill made
the controversial decision to just gallop his famous horse up to the Belmont,
but considering this horse gallops so vigorously, he may as well be working
every day. Yes, he very well could be quite fresh and yes, Alysheba lost after
not putting a final work in before the Belmont, but I’ll Have Another gets
absolutely plenty out of his routine gallops. In fact, some of his split times
are even quicker than fractions posted in works and the gallops he has been
executing could be very stamina-building.
History is against I’ll Have Another to win the Belmont, but I feel he has a
very good chance to win the race should he settle and receive a great ride from
Mario Gutierrez yet again. He is a very versatile, tactical horse with a post that suits him very well, and he has
proven to be the top of this class so far. A win by him would be tremendous for
racing and certainly not a surprise to me, though he has a tall task ahead of
him. For more on I’ll Have Another, please click here.
#12. My Adonis: By Breeders’ Cup
Classic (GI)- and Dubai World Cup (GI)-winning Pleasantly Perfect and out of a
mare by Elusive Quality, who is the sire of the Derby- and Preakness Stakes
(GI)-winning Smarty Jones, My Adonis appears to have the pedigree to go at
least ten furlongs. However, Elusive Quality is primarily successful with
milers and sprinters and as a broodmare sire, his mares’ offspring have won at
an average winning distance of just over six furlongs.
My Adonis is winless this year and in graded stakes races. Following good
in-the-money performances in the Holy Bull Stakes (GIII) and the Gotham Stakes
(GIII), My Adonis was the last horse to cross the wire in the Wood Memorial
Stakes (GI). He has since finished third of five in the mile and one-sixteenth
Canonero II Stakes at Pimlico.
The colt has had only one work since his performance in the Canonero II Stakes,
going five furlongs in 59.80 at Monmouth.
Considering the choice to run
My Adonis in the Belmont was a last minute decision, he has an unspectacular
racing record, and a questionable pedigree, I do not foresee My Adonis being
very competitive in the Belmont.
My top pick for the Belmont is, yes, I’ll Have Another. I believe the horses
that pose the biggest threats to be the next “Triple Crown Spoiler” are
Union Rags, Dullahan, Street Life, and perhaps Paynter. But what horse racing
needs is a win by I’ll Have Another – the first Triple Crown triumph since
1978. What the plethora of people that will be tuning into the Belmont that never watch horse racing want to see is a win by I'll Have Another. And frankly, I’ll Have Another has a good shot at it.
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