Oaks Contender: Believe You Can

The historic Churchill Downs dirt surface had been turned into an oval of slop, ready for ten talented three-year-old fillies to gallop across it for the most prestigious race generated for fillies their age: the Kentucky Oaks (GI). Proud Spell, a stocky bay filly in the orange and green colors of former governor of the Bluegrass State, Brereton C. Jones, loaded into the starting gate below the Twin Spires before 100,046 fans. Her stablemate, Eight Belles, had been scratched out of the Oaks, her preference belonging to the next day’s renowned Kentucky Derby (GI). Tragically, Eight Belles’ remarkable performance in the Derby would end in catastrophe. For Proud Spell, however, she would carry the same trainer and jockey to a victory.

Following her Oaks triumph, Proud Spell captured two more graded stakes victories en route to being named Champion Three-Year-Old Filly of 2008. Her trainer, Larry Jones, had earlier that year announced that it would be his final year of training. With teary eyes, the racing world bid him farewell.

However, Jones soon returned to racing in 2011. He was greeted with a warm welcome and picked up right where he’d left off, conditioning the eventual 2011 Horse of the Year, the brilliant mare Havre de Grace. He continued to strong into 2012, revealing several talented three-year-olds at Fair Grounds Racecourse in New Orleans, Louisiana. Among those sophomores was Believe You Can, a filly who was sired by the same sire as Proud Spell – the graded stakes-winning Proud Citizen, who had finished second in the Kentucky Derby and third in the Preakness Stakes (GI) in 2002 behind War Emblem.

Believe You Can debuted in June of her two-year-old career at Delaware Park, finishing fourth behind two eventual stakes-placed fillies. Her second start would be much more successful; she ran gamely to score in a five-furlong maiden special weight over the same track by a neck after leading from start to finish. She continued her Delaware winning ways next out, dominating a non-winners of two lifetime allowance optional claiming by 4 ½ lengths in August after racing just off the pace.

Believe You Can’s graded stakes debut came at the competitive Belmont fall meet, in which she impressively took the six-furlong Tempted Stakes (GIII) over a small field that included the graded stakes-winning Gerogie’s Angel and the stakes-placed Select Cat. She displayed a slightly new dimension, coming from off the pace to score, though she wasn’t far from the leaders due to the short field.

Her final juvenile start came in the Pocahontas Stakes (GII) at Churchill Downs, in which she finished an uninspiring sixth of twelve. It was a deep field, however. Crossing the wire ahead of Believe You Can was the eventual multiple graded stakes-winning On Fire Baby, the graded stakes-placed And Why Not, and the stakes-placed and future multiple stakes-winning Glinda the Good. In the Pocahontas, Believe You Can defeated horses that had won or would go on to win a total of two graded stakes and one ungraded stake and fillies that had placed in or would go on to place in three graded stakes and three ungraded stakes races altogether.

Believe You Can made her sophomore debut at the Fair Grounds in the Silverbulletday Stakes in late January, in which she set a steady pace from start to finish to capture the mile and seventy yards race by 1 ½ lengths. The filly who finished second to her in the Silverbulletday, Summer Applause, turned the tables on her next out in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (GIII) over the same track, however. In the Rachel Alexandra, Believe You Can settled in third rather than going to lead and raced along the inside before being maneuvered to the outside and faltering to fourth as the six-horse field bounded across the finish line.

The Larry Jones trainee rebounded next out, however, leading most of the way in the Fair Grounds Oaks (GII) over a small field to defeat her apparent rival Summer Applause by a head in a valiant effort to hold the other filly off while drifting out.

Despite the fact that Summer Applause has only managed to conquer Believe You Can once, many feel that she is the better filly. Though I am part of that group, I believe that Believe You Can is a gritty, talented filly with the pedigree to allow her to perform well in the Oaks, despite the fact that her only start over the Churchill Downs surface was not spectacular.

Obviously, Proud Citizen has already sired a Kentucky Oaks winner – and for the same connections at that. However, his success with three-year-olds does not stop there. He is the sire of two of the leading Kentucky Derby contenders for this year: the multiple graded stakes-placed Mark Valeski and the graded stakes-winning Went the Day Well. Proud Citizen, who is a grandson of the influential sire, sire of sires, and broodmare sire Gone West, is a direct descendant of the great mare Natalma and when bred to Believe You Can’s dam, El Fasto, the two form two crosses of Buckpasser, Natalma, Nearctic, and Tom Fool. El Fasto, a daughter of the significant sire El Prado, is a half-sister to the multiple graded stakes-winning Classic Elegance. She exhibits several crosses of Blue Larkspur, Mahmoud, Pharos, and Turn-To, some of the most influential sires found in the pedigrees of Thoroughbreds.

Believe You Can will have to run the race of her life in the Kentucky Oaks, but she has previously shown that she will lay it all on the line to get her nose in front. Her pedigree, though impressive, may not be quite as dazzling as other fillies pointing for the Run for the Lilies and her racing performances may not be as spectacular, but she is a hard-knocking filly running for connections with past successes in the Derby’s sister. She is certainly a justifiable contender for the Kentucky Oaks.


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Derby Hopeful: Bodemeister

For several years, racing fans have adored Bode Baffert, son of Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. An adorable face amongst racing greats, it came as no surprise that a talented colt came along with Bode as his namesake. Little did anyone know, that colt, who was registered under the name Bodemeister, would become Baffert’s top Derby prospect just weeks after Bob Baffert suffered a humbling heart attack.

In his racing debut, Bodemeister finished second behind the future graded stakes-placed American Act in a five-and-one-half-furlong maiden special weight at Santa Anita. Settling behind American Act, he could not quite catch the other colt but chased him willingly.

He more than redeemed himself next out, leading from start to finish in a one-mile maiden special weight over the same track to triumph by an outstanding 9 ¼ lengths. The final time for the eight-furlong race was an impressive 1:34.45, with the final furlong being run in 11.35 seconds despite the colt being held in hand by Rafael Bejarano. With that win, he immediately captured my attention.

Following his remarkable maiden victory, Bodemeister made his graded stakes debut in the San Felipe Stakes (GII), contested at the same Arcadia, California track. He found a position with American Act on the lead before taking command at the top of the stretch. The highly-touted grade one winner Creative Cause was gaining ground on the outside, however, and as Bodemeister drifted out, the gray colt defeated Bob Baffert’s talented steed by ¾ of a length.

Bodemeister had the option to remain in Southern California to take on the likes of Creative Cause again, as well as the brilliant I’ll Have Another, in the Santa Anita Derby (GI), but Baffert chose to ship him to Hot Springs, Arkansas for the Arkansas Derby (GI) instead. It proved as the right choice. With Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith – fresh off his five thousandth victory – aboard for the first time, Bodemeister set a solid pace while leading the winners of three graded stakes races and seven ungraded stakes. Each horse that galloped behind him had at least placed in one stakes race or graded stakes.

In Zayat Stables’ vibrant silks, Bodemeister drew clear from the others in the stretch under Mike Smith, extending his easy lead to a breathtaking 9 ½ lengths by the time he crossed the wire. Completing the final furlong of the mile and one-eighth race in an impressive 11.97 seconds considering he was several lengths clear of the others, Bodemeister posted an official time of 1:48.71, a time faster than past Arkansas Derby victors that went on to become Triple Crown superstars, including the Derby winners Smarty Jones and Sunny’s Halo, the Preakness Stakes (GI) winners Curlin, Afleet Alex, Smarty Jones, Pine Bluff, and Elocutionist, and the Belmont Stakes (GI) winners Afleet Alex, Victory Gallop, and Temperence Hill.

Some find it worrisome that Bodemeister has not won from off the pace, but he has run well with that running style. After all, he finished a good second in his debut after settling in second. Jockey Mike Smith has also expressed that he does not believe rating will be a problem for the colt.

Bodemeister’s pedigree certainly implies that Triple Crown distances will not be an issue. His sire is Empire Maker, who spoiled Funny Cide’s bid for the Triple Crown in 2003 by taking the twelve-furlong Belmont Stakes. Empire Maker is proven as a sire of routers, having sired the Personal Ensign Stakes (GI, 10F)-winning Icon Project, the Santa Anita Derby (GI, 9F)-winning and Kentucky Derby (GI, 10F) runner-up Pioneerof the Nile, and the Alabama Stakes (GI, 10F)- and Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic (GI, 9F)-winning Royal Delta. The stallion, who is inbred 4 X 3 to the Man O’ War sire line descendant, In Reality, also exhibits two crosses of Aspidistra, Buckpasser, Native Dancer, and Rough’n Tumble in the first five generations of his pedigree. His own dam, Toussad, is a Reine De Course mare who was voted Broodmare of the Year in 2002 and also produced the group one-winning distance horses Chester House and Chiselling, the graded stakes-winning Decarchy, and the grade one-winning sprinter Honest Lady.

Bodemeister is out of the graded stakes-winning mare Untouched Talent, who earned over $240,000 in her career. Her mating with Empire Maker forms two crosses of the influential sire Northern Dancer in Bodemeister’s pedigree, two crosses of the great Secretariat, and of course the two crosses of In Reality present in Empire Maker’s bloodlines in Bodemeister’s first five generations. Inbreeding to Northern Dancer has been extraordinarily successful, resulting in such horses as the Derby winners Mine That Bird and Big Brown, Japanese Triple Crown winner Orfevre, the brilliant grade one-winning Eskendereya, and the grade one-winning router Giant Oak. Inbreeding to Secretariat has yielded such horses as the grade one winners Bluegrass Cat, D’Wildcat, Sky Mesa, and Speightstown.

Untouched Talent’s bloodlines bring to the table a large amount of powerhouse sires. She is a daughter of the great sire Storm Cat, who is also an incredibly successful broodmare sire, being the damsire of brilliant horses such as the champions Folklore and Speightstown, as well as several grade one winners, including Dialed In, Sky Mesa, and Sidney’s Candy. She is also a granddaughter of the great sire A.P. Indy, who is the sire of her multiple graded stakes-winning dam Parade Queen. In just her first five generations, Untouched Talent traces back to a plethora of influential sires, including Northern Dancer, Roberto, Bold Ruler, Princequillo, Nijinsky, and Buckpasser. Due to the fact that she is a direct descendant of the foundation mare of family 1-n – the stakes-winning Reine De Course mare Chelandry – so is Bodemeister, which makes him a descendant of female family one. This is the most prolific of all female families and has yielded such great horses as Azeri, Buckpasser, Forty Niner, Genuine Risk, Rachel Alexandra, and Smarty Jones.

Bodemeister is quickly becoming a buzz horse, hailing from a strong stamina-based family and coming off the most dazzling victory on the Kentucky Derby trail. He offers everything you could want in a Derby prospect between his terrific pedigree, racing brilliance, and touching human interest story. Bob Baffert already has three Derby victories to his credit, but one can imagine that a win in the world’s most prestigious race just over a month after his heart attack in Dubai with a colt named after his son would be the most emotional of all. Bodemeister will not only have plenty of bettors backing him, but a surplus of fans will be pulling for him to win as well – and for good reason.

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Derby Hopeful: Dullahan

A muddy bay gelding skimmed the rail at Churchill Downs, skipping over the sloppy surface as he deserted the eighteen other Thoroughbreds in the 2009 Kentucky Derby (GI). In bewilderment, spectators glanced at their programs to identify the horse who was easily galloping to a Derby victory, their jaws dropping and their brows expressing their surprise.

“Who’s that?” was likely uttered from the mouths of a large amount of people watching the Run for the Roses.

The answer to that question was Mine That Bird, a colt whose racing performances had deteriorated after his championship juvenile season in Canada. As he carried jockey Calvin Borel to his second victory in the Kentucky Derby, he became the second longest shot to ever win the prestigious race.

Three years after Mine That Bird captured the Derby, his half-brother, Dullahan, will go to post in the same race.

Dullahan
Photo: Terri Cage

Things immediately got off to a better start for Dullahan than they did for Mine That Bird. The 2009 Kentucky Derby victor sold for a meager $9,500 at the 2007 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky Fall Yearling Sale whereas Dullahan sold for $250,000 at the 2010 Keeneland September Yearling Sale.

Dullahan debuted on June 9, 2011 as a juvenile, facing what would end up being one of the toughest fields in a two-year-old maiden special weight of the year at Churchill Downs. Racing wide, the chestnut colt finished third behind the future graded stakes-winning horses Exfactor and Daddy Nose Best.

Going a sixteenth of a mile farther next out in another maiden special weight at the Louisville track, Dullahan faced yet another very talented field. Running an uninspiring fifth, the half-brother to Mine That Bird was defeated by the eventual graded stakes-placed horses Big Blue Nation and Lockout and the future graded stakes-winning Sabercat. Despite finishing fifth, Dullahan still finished in front of several gifted horses, including Daddy Nose Best and Saturday Launch, the latter of which recently finished fourth in the Illinois Derby (GIII).

Dullahan made his turf debut next out in a mile and one-sixteenth maiden special weight at the renowned Saratoga Racecourse. He turned in his best performance yet, rating off the eventual winner before gaining ground on him late to miss by a half-length.

Despite the fact that he was still a maiden, Jerry Crawford’s Donegal Racing and trainer Dale Romans entered Dullahan in the With Anticipation Stakes (GII) at Saratoga. Over a firm turf course, Dullahan settled off the pace set by State of Play, allowing the future stakes-placed runner Sportswriter and the eventual multiple graded stakes-placed Optimizer to race ahead of him for the majority of the race. Facing traffic troubles around the far turn, Dullahan found room to run in the homestretch and though he ran a good third, he could not keep up with State of Play and Optimizer.

Rather than returning to the maiden ranks, Dullahan made his following start in the most prominent Keeneland juvenile stakes of the year, the Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity (GI). Starting over a synthetic surface for the first time, Dullahan also ran with a new running style, coming from far off the pace. He was forced to steady on the far turn, but had no issue recovering. The chestnut colt made a breathtaking closing move, swinging wide off the far turn to mow down the leaders in the homestretch. Winning by three-quarters of a length, Dullahan defeated the past or future winners of four graded stakes races.

Like Mine That Bird, Dullahan contested in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (GI). The result was much better for Dullahan, however. While Mine That Bird finished last, Dullahan closed from the back of the pack to pass nine horses. The chestnut colt maneuvered traffic and was guided to the outside by jockey Kent Desormeaux, making up much ground to finish fourth behind the talented horses Hansen, Union Rags, and Creative Cause.

Dullahan’s sophomore debut was delayed due to a slight illness, but he returned in the Palm Beach Stakes (GIII) in March, revisiting turf as he made his first start at Gulfstream Park. Under Desormeaux, he raced in fifth in the six-horse field for most of the race before closing in the homestretch to finish a length behind Howe Great.

In his final start before the Kentucky Derby, Dullahan returned to Keeneland – the home of his only victory. Like the Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity, this start was one of the most prestigious races held at the Lexington, Kentucky track: the Blue Grass Stakes (GI). Dullahan’s race in the Blue Grass was nearly identical to his race in the Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity. Settling near the rear of the field, Dullahan made a dazzling run around the far turn before mowing down the leaders to score. Rather than the graded stakes-winning Majestic City being the final horse he passed in the stretch, Dullahan charged past the champion Hansen to capture the prestigious Derby prep by 1 ¼ lengths.

Dullahan shipped to Churchill Downs shortly after his Blue Grass triumph to begin training under the Twin Spires for the Kentucky Derby. Trainer Dale Romans has expressed that Dullahan loves the Churchill surface, which the colt has trained on countless times. However, though Dullahan may work well over the surface, his poorest performances have come over that very track. Nonetheless, they were not terrible performances. He has finished a decent third, a jaded fifth, and a respectable fourth over the Louisville racetrack. Yet, each time, he has been defeated at least approximately 6 ¼ lengths. But he does seem to be a more mature colt as a sophomore and will have much more training time over the Churchill surface than most Derby contenders.

Clearly, a checkmark can be placed next to Dullahan’s name when it comes to the matter of a Derby pedigree. Though a mare has never produced more than one Kentucky Derby winner, the fact that Mining My Own – the dam of both Mine That Bird and Dullahan – has already produced two grade one winners and Brother Bird – an earner of over $140,000 – in her young broodmare career is very encouraging.

Mining My Own is a daughter of Smart Strike, a son of Mr. Prospector who is the sire of such horses as the two-time Horse of the Year Curlin who won four ten-furlong grade ones, the turf champion English Channel who was victorious in five grade ones at eleven furlongs or longer, and the Preakness Stakes (GI, 9.5F)-winning Lookin’ At Lucky. As a broodmare sire, Smart Strike has produced the dams of twenty-five stakes winners, including the group two-winning Strong Return, the champion Queen’s Plate Stakes (10F)-winning Inglorious, and the Hollywood Gold Cup (GI, 10F)-winning First Dude.

Dullahan is sired by a fairly unrecognized sire in Even the Score, a graded stakes winner by the significant sire Unbridled’s Song. Even the Score is also the sire of Take the Points, who won grade one turf races at nine and ten furlongs. Other offspring of Even the Score include the graded stakes-winning middle-distance filly Four Gifts, as well as the stakes-winning distance horse Scorewithcater, who ironically defeated Mine That Bird in the Borderland and Sunland Derbies. Even the Score has crossed well with mares like Mining My Own who descend from the Mr. Prospector sire line, producing such horses as the black-type-winning Enjoy the Score, the stakes-winning and group stakes-placed Amabo, and a plethora of winners.

Dullahan is inbred 5 X 3 to Mr. Prospector. Inbreeding to this influential superstar has been enormously efficacious, appearing in the pedigrees of such horses as the grade one winners Declan’s Moon, El Corredor, Flower Alley, Pleasant Home, Roman Ruler, Shadow Cast, Strategic Maneuver, Tapit, Volponi, and Whywhywhy.

Just to add to the grandeur of Dullahan’s bloodlines, he descends from female family twenty-three, which has been the root of the pedigrees of many brilliant racehorses, including the most recent American Triple Crown winner in Affirmed, the Canadian Triple Crown-winning female Dance Smartly, 2004 Horse of the Year Ghostzapper, the champion sprinter Big Drama, and a total of nine Kentucky Derby victors.

It is definitely logical to believe Dullahan can win the Kentucky Derby. Though he has not performed tremendously well over the Churchill surface, he is getting more training over it than most Derby contenders and is under the care of a trainer who has conditioned a top-four finisher in the past two runnings of the prestigious race. Furthermore, he is the half-brother to a Kentucky Derby winner in Mine That Bird and has a pedigree that suggests he can accomplish the same task as his brother. Dullahan certainly seems to have a better chance in the Derby than his half-brother did and unlike when Mine That Bird bounded through the mud to en route to a Derby victory, it would be no surprise to see Dullahan draped in red roses following the greatest two minutes in sports.

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Diary of Dexter: Back to the Basics

Busy days entangled me in their vine, rainy days and severe storms left the ground suitable only for slopping through the mud while being attacked by mosquitoes, and illness and a thrown shoe bestowed Dexter with several lackadaisical days – too many of those easygoing days. Dexter was only sparingly ridden throughout winter and early spring due to the aforementioned factors, but now that spring has fully sprung, leaving the grass green and the trees flourishing, Dexter has been able to be exercised under saddle much more frequently.

Just when it appeared I would be able to ride Dexter more often, my beloved gelding began to look very poor. We realized that his dull, slowly shedding coat and his distorted belly insinuated that he was wormy. We treated him with Panacur Powerpac, which is very effective in ridding the horse’s system of strongyles.

Before long, my grandson of Storm Cat began to appear to be back to his old self. His dull, fuzzy coat began to shed, revealing a gleaming mahogany coat, his eyes became brighter, and his walk grew more energetic. He was ready to ride again.

Dexter
Photo: Terri Cage

Prior to Dexter’s illness, one of our rides of the winter had been quite unsuccessful. He had displayed that he had become barn sour and much too eager to go at a faster pace than I asked him for. Once I began riding him again, I mostly rode him far from the barn, focusing on softening his mouth, his turning, and slowing him down.

Yet again, Dexter disclosed his great intelligence, responding to all of my cues while making it clear that his goal was to please me. During our last several rides, I have ridden him in a greater variety of locations in my back pasture, long trotting him to restore his muscle tone, doing many bending exercises to soften his mouth and improve his turning, and simply riding him at a walk and trot to slow him down.

Training Dexter never fails to show me how intelligent the great creature we call the Thoroughbred is, how reliable and intellectual a retired racehorse can be. Each time I settle aboard Dexter, I can’t help but be in awe by the fact that I am riding a grandson a Storm Cat, a descendant of the great horses Ack Ack, Affirmed, Native Dancer, Ribot, and Secretariat, and a winning Thoroughbred that hails from the most prolific of all female families – female family one. But most of all, Dexter has proved to me that he is one of the kindest, most willing horses I have ever come across. And our past few rides have certainly taught me that it’s never too late to go back to the basics.

One of my favorite views: watching the sun
go down from aboard Dexter!
Photo by Mary Cage

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After the Auction: Ruby Be Mine

As an avid fan of sales with possible aspirations to become an adviser/bloodstock agent, auctions are one of my favorite topics to write about on Past the Grandstand. This is the first edition in a blog series called "After the Auction" that will feature horses I have discovered in sales that have found success after the sale. *Note: If an "After the Auction" features a two-year-old, it will also be listed as a "Juvenile Spotlight."

Ruby Be Mine stood beneath the December sun, her swollen belly covered in her gleaming chestnut coat that fit her name. She was the color of a ruby stone, gazing across the backside of Lone Star Park as if she knew she would bring the highest price of the sale. Her purchase price of $35,000 was nothing compared to horses sold at sales such as a Keeneland sale or a Fasig-Tipton auction in a state such as Kentucky, but when the fall of the hammer fell at the price when Ruby Be Mine was sold, she became the highest-priced horse to sell at the 2011 Fasig-Tipton Texas December Mixed Sale.

Ruby Be Mine at the Fasig-Tipton Texas December Mixed Sale
Photo by Mary Cage

I came across the mare the day before she was sold at the aforementioned sale and was impressed by her classy appearance. When I learned that she had been the sale-topper, it came as no shock. The black-type-placed track record-setter had already proven herself to be a successful producer, which is no surprise, as her dam is the black-type-winning Hyper and Saucy, who also produced the dam of the black-type placed My Abbie and is a half-sister to the black-typed placed Key to the Sauce and to the dam of the black-type winning Magic Power. Descending from female family nine, Ruby Be Mine comes from the same female family as the dams of the great horses Alydar, Bull Lea, Fair Play, Galileo, Mahmoud, Nasrullah, Sea the Stars, Sir Barton, and Shergar.

Four months after Ruby Be Mine was sold, I stood alongside the Lone Star Park rail as a mare with a chestnut coat and white blaze triumphed in the JEH Stallion Station Stakes for accredited Texas-bred fillies and mares. With her win, the victor further stamped Ruby Be Mine as a productive broodmare, as the winner of the race was Ruby’s Big Band, a five-year-old daughter of Ruby Be Mine.

Ruby's Big Band winning the JEH Stallion Station Stakes
Photo: Terri Cage

Breeder W.S. Farish of Lane’s End Farm fame sent Ruby Be Mine to Bowman’s Band in 2006 for the mare’s second mating. The result was Ruby’s Big Band, who would quickly display talent on the track. As a juvenile, she started ten times, winning in four races. Of those four wins, Ruby’s Big Band captured three black-type races in Canada. She has continued her black-type performances, scoring in five black-type races since her two-year-old career. In fact, two-thirds of her starts have come in black-type races.

It was certainly fascinating to see the offspring of a mare who caught my attention at the Fasig-Tipton Texas December Mixed Sale win a black-type race before my eyes. Witnessing Ruby’s Big Band’s victory exhibited just how rewarding it can be to find a horse at a sale and follow it or its offspring from then on. I found the experience to be very satisfying, giving me even more motivation to follow horses I find in sales.

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Derby Top Ten #12

Countdown to Derby Day: 18 Days

As the Kentucky Derby (GI) approaches each year, each contender on the Derby trail is analyzed closely. Weeks before the Derby, we usually have an idea of how good of a crop the year’s sophomores are. This year, the crop appears to be extremely deep. The top contenders have repetitively performed well and still seem to be legitimate contenders as the days grow closer to the first Saturday in May.

In last week’s Derby Top Ten, I felt that my top five horses all had a valid case to take the top spot. This week, the list has become even more pretentious. Any of the top six could be ranked first, though the entire top ten list was very hard to order and I found myself frequently changing my mind. I find very few knocks for several of these contenders. The final works the contenders turn in could certainly change their position on this list. It would be no surprise if this year’s rendition of the Kentucky Derby – as well as this crop of three-year-olds – is talked about for decades to come.

Here is my top ten list of 2012 Kentucky Derby contenders as of April 16.

1. Union Rags: He’s regained his position at the top, simply because he just may be the most brilliant colt of this group. However, he will need to run the race of his life in the Derby, which of course the others will need to do as well. He and jockey Julien Leparoux likely learned much from their Florida Derby (GI) loss and whatever they learned, they will need to apply that to the Kentucky Derby. His position at the pinnacle is quite shaky, but it could become firmer if he works up to the Derby well. For more on why he is a top Derby contender, please click here.

2. I’ll Have Another: This colt is really coming into his own, seeming to be on a road of improvement on his way to the Derby. He is a horse who clearly enjoys to run and strives to finish in front. He is full of talent and comes with a pedigree fit for a Derby winner. He could certainly be underestimated compared to several of these top contenders, but he brings to the table many important qualities: the ability to rate off the pace, the capability of outdueling another horse in the stretch, the speed to finish quickly, the love of running, and obvious improvement. For more on why he is a top Derby contender, please click here.

3. Creative Cause: He has danced every dance and runs his heart out each time he goes to post. His pedigree is certainly suitable for a Kentucky Derby victor and he knows how to get the job done. He also possesses several important characteristics, including being able to settle off the pace, the ability of coming home quickly, the love of longer distances, and sheer talent. For more on why he is a top Derby contender, please click here.

4. Bodemeister: A colt I have followed since he broke his maiden, he received a huge confidence boost in his dominant Arkansas Derby (GI) win. Both of his victories have been absolute romps, which shows that this is a brilliant colt. He ran very gamely behind Creative Cause in the San Felipe Stakes (GII) earlier this year in his graded stakes debut. With the removal of blinkers in the Arkansas Derby, he effortlessly defeated a rather deep field. Some may find it worrisome that he may “bounce” off his overpowering win in the Arkansas Derby, but he has yet to run a poor race. Bodemeister is a horse with plenty of room of improvement, which is quite imposing considering how brilliant he has already proven himself to be.

5. Gemologist: An undefeated colt with a pedigree that will allow him to get the Derby distances, Gemologist is a serious contender. Though most of the final times of his races have not been overly impressive, he is capable of posting a quick final time, as he displayed at Gulfstream. He is not only talented, but he has the important quality of heart and grit. It is also significant that he already has two wins over the Churchill Downs dirt surface, something no other contender can say. For more on why he is a top Derby contender, please click here.

6. Dullahan: He only has two victories to his credit, both of which came at Keeneland in grade one races. This half-brother to the 2009 Kentucky Derby winner, Mine That Bird, triumphed in the Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity Stakes (GI) as a juvenile before finishing a closing fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI) behind Hansen, Union Rags, and Creative Cause. He has already proved this year that he has improved, as he finished second in a turf graded stakes at Gulfstream in his 2012 debut before charging late to defeat Hansen in the Blue Grass Stakes (GI) at Keeneland on Saturday. Though his only wins have come over the synthetic, he is bred for the dirt and has performed well over it. In addition, he undoubtedly has a Derby pedigree, being a half-brother to Mine That Bird. He is a valid contender.

7. Alpha: As talented as he has proven to be, seventh place seems to be a very low ranking for him. This just goes to show how contentious this year’s field for the Derby will be. His pedigree should allow him to get the Derby distance and his talent and determination should allow him to run extremely well. Alpha should definitely be taken seriously.

8. Take Charge Indy: Despite being undoubtedly bred for distance, this colt may have distance limitations due to his front-running style. He is talented by all means, but he will have to run the race of his life in the Kentucky Derby. But he certainly has a huge advantage with three-time Derby-winning jockey Calvin Borel aboard.

9. Went the Day Well: Bred for the Derby, this colt runs for the same connections as last year’s Derby victor, Animal Kingdom. He is already proven over dirt – something that Animal Kingdom wasn’t prior to the Run for the Roses. He is expected to make his final prep in this Saturday’s Lexington Stakes (GII) at Keeneland.

10. Daddy Nose Best: This Steve Asmussen trainee was a fairly talented grass juvenile, but has proved to be even more successful as a sophomore, winning over multiple surfaces in two graded stakes. Coming off a win in the Sunland Derby (GIII), he is quite a classy colt with plenty of determination and heart. He has exhibited an impressive stretch drive, but has not always fared extremely well against the highest quality of horses. However, when he faced tough, high-quality horses, he was running on the grass and he just might be better on dirt.

Honorable Mentions:

El Padrino: He was rather lackluster in his fourth-place effort in the Florida Derby and may not make it into the Derby starting gate due to a lack of graded stakes earnings, but if he somehow does find his way into the Run for the Roses, El Padrino will need to run back to his early 2012 form.

Hansen: He has never finished worse than second and is clearly one of the most talented three-year-olds of 2012. However, he still has the issue of setting too quick of a pace before falling apart in late stretch. His pedigree may also restrict him from getting the ten-furlong distance of the Derby. Yet he did make his final prep before his victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile – run at Churchill – over Polytrack and made his final prep before the Kentucky Derby over the same surface. He could certainly perform well, but his front-running style and questionable pedigree make his chances quite uncertain.

Mark Valeski: He is a gritty, talented colt, but it is disappointing that he could not get past the longshot Hero of Order, who ran poorly in the Blue Grass, last out. This, of course, could be due to losing a shoe, but he also may be a horse that tries hard each time he races but can never quite cross the wire first. Nevertheless, he is a hard-trying colt.

Sabercat: A colt that definitely has the earnings for the Kentucky Derby, Sabercat rebounded off his disappointing Rebel Stakes (GII) performance to finish a closing third-place in the Arkansas Derby. He may have found his groove again, but will have to run a tremendous race to be a threat in the Kentucky Derby.

Secret Circle: Though I declared him my Derby colt as soon as he broke his maiden, I believe Bob Baffert should restrict this colt to races under ten furlongs. Though bred for longer distances, Secret Circle seems to have the mindset for middle-distance races or sprints. But if his connections do intend to enter the Derby with him, they certainly have a talented, determined colt on their hands.

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Oaks Contender: In Lingerie

Empire Maker has proved to be a top sire of fillies, producing such horses as Acoma, Acting Happy, Mushka, and Royal Delta. He has two of the leading fillies on the Kentucky Oaks (GI) trail, Grace Hall and In Lingerie, the latter of which is much less experienced. Nonetheless, In Lingerie has a logical shot at an Oaks victory.

In Lingerie is bred on the very successful Unbridled/Storm Cat cross, which has produced such horses as the grade one winners Buddha and Magnificent Song, the grade two winners Half Ours and Santa Catarina, the grade three-winning Broken Dreams, and a Kentucky Derby (GI) contender in Bodemeister.

The second dam of In Lingerie is the 1993 Champion Two-Year-Old Filly Phone Chatter, who captured the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (GI) at Santa Anita. Phone Chatter in turn produced the grade two-winning dam of In Lingerie, Cat Chat. In Lingerie descends from a strong dam line, being the direct descendant of five Reine De Course mares. This is female family three, which is most notable for producingthe great horses A.P. Indy, Nashua, Sunday Silence, and Tom Fool.

Though In Lingerie has only started three times, she has been quite remarkable in those three races. She debuted on January 14, 2012 at Turfway Park, setting the pace in the six-furlong race before drawing off to a 6 ¼-length victory. She then shipped south to Gulfstream Park in Florida for a one-mile allowance optional claiming in her first start on dirt. She was left 4 ½ lengths behind by Zo Impressive,who would go on to finish second in the Gulfstream Oaks Stakes (GII) behind Grace Hall.

In Lingerie received a perfect confidence boost next out, when she returned to Turfway Park for the Bourbonette Oaks (GII) for her first start for new trainer Todd Pletcher and new owners Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners and Gary Barber. She effortlessly won her graded stakes debut by 6 lengths. The most accomplished filly she defeated was the graded stakes-winning More Than Love, but that filly finished second-to-last. This makes the form of the race questionable and leaves you wondering if In Lingerie is solely a Turfway freak.

However, last fall, there was a certain horse that was considered just a Turfway freak: Hansen. The colt crushed inconspicuous fields at the Florence, Kentucky track before winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI) at Churchill Downs. Also, last year, Animal Kingdom triumphed in the Spiral Stakes (GIII) at Turfway prior to winning the Kentucky Derby. It is clear that horses that perform well over Turfway, though the fields they face may be insipid, tend to run well over the Churchill Downs surface.

This filly clearly has immense racing talent and is blossoming under Todd Pletcher. The trainer has proven that he can condition the winner of the Kentucky Oaks, as he trained the winner of the 2007 edition, the great Rags to Riches. With a highly impressive pedigree, dominant performances, and an accomplished trainer, In Lingerie should not be underestimated.


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