This is my top ten list of Kentucky Derby contenders as of March 18.
1.
Union Rags: This colt is full of pure talent and clearly
loves to run. He was extremely professional in his Fountain of Youth Stakes (GII)
victory, effortlessly galloping to victory. He could face a deep field in the
Florida Derby (GI) on March 31, but if he’s as talented as he seems to be, we
could see something spectacular from him yet again. For more on why he is a top
Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.
2.
Creative Cause: He is certainly bred to run all day and was
brilliant in his triumph in the San Felipe Stakes (GII), despite running
greenly in the stretch, which could be a result of being struck by the whip.
The way he accelerated just as he hit the wire was incredibly impressive,
especially considering how far ahead of the others he galloped out. It also
must be noted that he galloped out in front of every horse after the Breeders’ Cup
Juvenile (GI). Once Creative Cause has his mind on running, it is hard to
defeat him. He is expected to run next in the Santa Anita Derby (GI) on April
7. For
more on why he is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.
3. El
Padrino: He is a tough, gritty colt with bloodlines and conformation
that should allow him to handle long distances. He has run extremely well both
over fast and sloppy tracks and has displayed professionalism in each of his
starts. He could start next in the Florida Derby (GI) on March 31 or the
Louisiana Derby (GII) on April 1. For more on why he is a top Kentucky Derby
contender, please click here.
4.
Gemologist: He made the top ten of the first two editions of
this list, but became an honorable mention the longer his sophomore debut was
put off. He needed to get a race in which he displayed that he had matured and
grown faster over the winter. He ran exactly that race on Friday at Gulfstream,
defeating the grade one-winning Currency Swap in a one-mile open allowance that
became practically his only choice when travel complications kept him from
shipping to Oaklawn for the Rebel Stakes (GII). He was hardly asked at all by
Javier Castellano en route to a 7-length victory. In fact, he was in hand for
the majority of the homestretch. He completed the final quarter of a mile in
24.69 seconds despite only slight urging. He completed the eight-furlong
distance in 1:35.95, a much faster one-mile clocking than his one-mile splits
in his allowance optional claiming (2.57 seconds quicker) and Kentucky Jockey
Club Stakes (GII) (1.79 seconds quicker) victories as a juvenile. It was the
perfect sophomore debut. He may have led the entire way in the allowance on
Friday, but he has proven in the past that he can rate off the pace. By Tiznow
and out of a Mr. Prospector mare, Gemologist surely should be able to handle
the Triple Crown distances. In addition, he already has two very important wins
over the Churchill Downs surface. His final prep is undecided, but is likely to
come in April.
5. I’ll
Have Another: Though I do not particularly care for his
connection’s decision to not give him a race between his Robert B. Lewis Stakes
(GII) win and the Santa Anita Derby (GI), I believe this colt is underrated. He
has good form, a pedigree that hints at a future in route races, and he clearly
enjoys to race. He will need to turn in a terrific performance in the Santa
Anita Derby on April 7, but I believe he is capable of doing so.
6.
Bodemeister: He did appear to be slightly fatigued after his
game effort in the San Felipe, but he ran extremely well in that race and it
was his first try around two turns. He will grow more robust under the care of
Bob Baffert, especially considering his connections think highly of him after
his dazzling maiden victory and tremendous second-place effort in the San
Felipe. He may make his final prep for the Kentucky Derby in the Santa Anita
Derby on April 7.
7. Mark
Valeski: He was extremely tough in his runner-up finish behind El
Padrino in the Risen Star Stakes (GII), giving the colt all he had before
falling a nose short. His pedigree suggests that he will be able to get the
Derby distance of ten furlongs, as he is by a Derby runner-up and has the same
broodmare sire, Fortunate Prospect (RIP), as this year’s Santa Anita Handicap
(GI) winner, Ron the Greek. He will likely race next in the Louisiana Derby
(GII) on April 1.
8.
Dullahan: If any horse has the pedigree to be able to be competitive
at the Derby distance, it’s Dullahan, as he is a half-brother to the 2009
Kentucky Derby winner, Mine That Bird. He has proven that he is talented, as he
won the Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity (GI) at Keeneland as a two-year-old before
closing well to finish fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile behind Hansen,
Union Rags, and Creative Cause. His 2012 debut in the Palm Beach Stakes (GIII)
on March 11 was very respectable, as he closed to finish second after not
having run in four months. It is anticipated that Dullahan will make his final
prep for the Kentucky Derby in the Blue Grass Stakes (GI) over the same
racetrack at which he ran his best race.
9. Hansen:
We
all know he is brilliant, but there is plenty of room for doubt when it comes to
the distance question. He can get a mile and one-sixteenth and certainly has
the potential to get nine furlongs, but I am unconvinced that he can be
victorious at ten furlongs. He has improved, proving that he can rate, but that
does not confirm that he will be triumphant at long distances. He is expected
to make his final start before the Kentucky Derby in the Wood Memorial Stakes
(GI) on April 7.
10. Secret
Circle: Despite the fact that he has a pedigree full of stamina, it
seems as if Secret Circle has distance limitations. However, his victories in
the Southwest Stakes (GIII) and the Rebel Stakes (GII) were certainly steps in
the right direction. His Rebel win on Saturday was very impressive, as, instead
of running on or just off a quick pace, he found a position in fourth. Yet
another factor of his triumph in the Rebel that was remarkable was that the son
of Eddington dug in to get past Scatman in late stretch though it has been
revealed that the colt is not the best about going past horses in the stretch. Optimizer was gaining ground on him, but
Secret Circle found enough to hold him off. His final time for the mile and
one-sixteenth race was 1.87 seconds (approximately 9 ½ lengths) slower than Union
Rags’ time in the Fountain of Youth and .71 seconds (about 3 ½ lengths) slower
than Hansen’s time in the Gotham. However, though Secret Circle’s final
sixteenth of a mile was .48 seconds slower than Union Rags’, it was only .04
seconds slower than Hansen’s. Secret Circle is a horse that is bred for long
distances but will likely be more successful at shorter ones. He may make his
next start in the nine-furlong Arkansas Derby (GI) on April 14, which should
tell us more about him. For more on why he has the potential to become a top
Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.
Honorable
Mentions:
Alpha: He is
definitely talented and well-bred, but has not been beating up on much. His
connections have been quite indecisive on his final start before the Kentucky
Derby, which could come in the Florida Derby on March 31, the Louisiana Derby
on April 1, the Louisiana Derby on April 1 or the Arkansas Derby on April 14.
They do not want to run him against horses they view as extremely tough, such
as Union Rags and Hansen, but the colt needs to prove himself and needs to get
a race in.
Castaway:
He
easily won the first division of the Southwest Stakes (GIII), but it was slower
than Secret Circle’s victory in the second and final division. He was also
recently outworked by Secret Circle, which may show that he is simply not fast
enough. However, his pedigree (sired by Street Sense and out of a Storm Cat
mare) shows that he very well may be much more appreciative of longer
distances.
Heavy
Breathing: Heavy Breathing is royally bred, being by
Giant’s Causeway and out of a direct descendant of La Troienne that has already
produced a grade one winner. He has been impressive in his two starts, winning
them both handily. However, he will need to prove that his royal bloodlines and
remarkable performances are legitimate. He will get his chance to do so in the
Spiral Stakes (GIII) on March 24, which Animal Kingdom used as a launch pad
prior to his Run for the Roses victory.
Howe
Great: He has been brilliant this year and is proven on dirt, but
though the sire of his sire is the Kentucky Derby and Preakness-winning Sunday
Silence, his pedigree does not offer much encouragement as far as Triple Crown
distances are concerned. However, he has the right connections to get him
there: Graham Motion and Team Valor.
Optimizer:
After
a string of very disappointing finishes, which included an eighth-place finish
in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and a ninth-place finish in the Risen Star Stakes
(GII), Optimizer ran an impressive second in the Rebel, closing quickly to
finish second behind Secret Circle. The fractions may have set him up for this,
but the D. Wayne Lukas trainee may have turned a new page.
Paynter:
He
is certainly talented, but I no longer feel as if he has a position in the top
ten. Yes, he is making his next start in the Illinois Derby (GII), but he is
going from five and one-half furlongs to nine furlongs, which is a huge jump.
In addition, contending in the Kentucky Derby off of just two starts is not an
advantage by any means. Though I would love to see him in the starting gate on
the first Saturday in May, I believe it would be rushing things. Perhaps his
connections should await the Preakness Stakes (GI), or at least make the goal
the Breeders’ Cup Classic (GI). After all, he is by Awesome Again and out of a
full sister to Tiznow.
Prospective:
He
was a good juvenile in Canada, but finished last in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
against many of these horses. He has flourished at Tampa Bay Downs this year,
winning two of three starts, including the Tampa Bay Derby (GII). Yet I am not extremely confident in how he
would compete against many of the top Derby contenders.
Street
Life: He has appeared on the honorable mentions list here several
times (as well as in my article, Late Blooming Three-Year-Olds), as he
impressed me in his breathtaking maiden victory, in which he closed in spectacular
fashion to win. He won the Broad Brush Stakes on Saturday in similar fashion,
but the race was not graded. By the Derby-winning Street Sense and out of a
mare that is by the 1996 Derby winner, Grindstone, he is undoubtedly bred for
the Derby. However, he would have to acquire a large amount of graded stakes
earnings in his next start, which would need to come in time for the Derby. Perhaps
he will not make it to Kentucky Derby, but look for him later on down the road.
Read more about many of the honorable mentions in my article, Late Blooming Three-Year-Olds.
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