Here is my list of Kentucky
Derby contenders as of March 27.
1. Union Rags: He
has every reason to be in the top position, as he is clearly absolutely
brilliant. He will need a spectacular performance in next weekend’s Florida
Derby (GI), but if he’s anything like the Union Rags we’ve seen, he will have
the perfect final prep for the Kentucky Derby. For more on why he is a top
Derby contender, please click here.
2. Creative Cause: He
clearly has plenty of stamina and raw talent. The way he was just beginning to
accelerate at the end of the San Felipe Stakes (GII) was incredibly impressive,
denoting that this colt is ready for more ground. He could not quite keep up
with Union Rags and Hansen in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI), but he did
gallop out ahead of them. For more on why he is a top Derby contender, please
click here.
3. El Padrino: He is
a tough, talented horse, but he will be on the top of his game in the Florida
Derby against the likes of Union Rags. He is a versatile colt with plenty of
potential, but will need to run well this weekend. For more on why he is a top
Derby contender, please click here.
4. Gemologist: He is
bred for ten furlongs, has obvious talent, and is improving. He will need to
acquire more graded stakes earnings in order to make it the starting gate on
the first Saturday in May, but if he does, it will be his third time to race
over the Churchill Downs surface, which is more than any other Kentucky Derby
hopeful. This gives him a huge advantage. For more on why he is a top Derby
contender, please click here.
5. I’ll Have Another: It
is discouraging that his connections are waiting so long for his final prep, as
it would be benefical for him to get more than two preps into him. However, his
win in the Robert B. Lewis (GIII) was very impressive, as he seemed to just be
winning for fun. He will face a tough field in the Santa Anita Derby (GI) on
April 7 and will need to run a tremendous race, but he certainly seems to have
the talent to do so.
6. Bodemeister: He is
also improving, which is extremely important. His race in the San Felipe was
importantly, though he very well may have been growing fatigued near the end of
the race. However, as mentioned, he is improving. His work on Friday was very impressive, as he had to
maneuver nine other horses but still effortlessly outworked them all without
any asking from Martin Garcia. He should not be underestimated.
7. Mark Valeski: Plain
and simple, he will have to win or at least run a very remarkable race in the Louisiana
Derby (GII) this weekend. He is clearly talented and full of heart, but he will
need to continue to justify his position on this list. He could very well
provide Rosie Napravnik with her second mount in the Kentucky Derby.
8. Dullahan: Obviously
bred for the Derby, Dullahan has also proven to be talented. His final prep in
the Blue Grass Stakes (GI) on April 14 will need to be an impressive effort,
but he has already run well over the Keeneland surface, winning the Dixiana
Breeders’ Futurity (GI) there.
9. Hansen: He is
clearly a brilliant horse that loves to run and he has improved by learning
to
rate, but it is still uncertain whether he will get the Derby distance. His
final prep, which will be in the Blue Grass, will be against a deep field, but
he is already proven over the Polytrack. Also, Hansen has proved that racing
over a Polytrack surface prior to making a start at Churchill Downs is a
successful strategy for him. He won over Turfway’s Polytrack before triumphing
in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill last year.
10. Went the Day Well: It
was practically déjà vu when this colt won the Spiral Stakes (GIII) at Turfway
on Saturday for Team Valor and Graham Motion. A year prior, Animal Kingdom had
won the race for the same connections. Ironically, they both even broke from
post four. We all know how the Spiral set up Animal Kingdom for the Kentucky
Derby: he went on to win the Run for the Roses. At this stage, Went the Day Well
is already a step ahead of Animal Kingdom: he has already been victorious over
dirt. Also unlike last year’s Derby winner, Went the Day Well is likely to make
one more prep before the Kentucky Derby. Barry Irwin is even more confident in
him than he was in Animal Kingdom and rightfully so. Went the Day Well is
obviously a very talented colt. He also has encouraging bloodlines. By Derby
runner-up Proud Citizen and out of a Tiznow mare, Went the Day Well seems to
have plenty of stamina in his pedigree.
Honorable Mentions:
Alpha: His connections finally
decided on his final prep for the Derby: the Wood Memorial. This will be his
stiffest competition of the year and his chance to prove himself. He must run
well against the likes of Gemologists and the others likely for the Wood in order to be a top contender.
Cigar Street: Featured in Late Blooming Three-Year-Olds, Cigar Street is slated to make his graded
stakes debut this weekend in the Louisiana Derby. It will be the toughest race
of his life and he will certainly need to run well to acquire sufficient graded
stakes earnings. He clearly has the pedigree to get there and appears to have
the talent as well.
Daddy Nose Best: A
decent turf horse as a two-year-old, Daddy Nose Best began his sophomore
campaign on the synthetic in the El Camino Real Derby (GIII), in which he
outdueled Lucky Chappy for a nose victory. His second start as a three-year-old
came in the Sunland Derby (GIII), which was his third try over dirt. Though it
seemed as if Isn’t He Clever would pull of the win, Daddy Nose Best dug in for
the three-quarters of a length victory, drawing away at the wire. This son of
Scat Daddy clearly wants more ground and has plenty of talent. However, he will
need to prove that he can compete against the very best contenders.
Nonetheless, Daddy Nose Best possesses unquestionable talent.
Heavy Breathing: Despite
an uninspiring third-place finish in the Spiral, I felt he needed to at least
be mentioned. He is beautifully bred, being a direct descendant of La Troienne
and a full brother to Frost Giant. The Spiral was the toughest field he’s faced
yet and he has already been a mile and one-eighth twice, more times than any of
these other horses. Perhaps, he can learn more and get one more start in before
the Derby. However, if that is the case, Heavy Breathing will need to win or perform
extremely well in that start.
Howe Great: Proven
on both dirt and turf, Howe Great has proved to be brilliant. However, his
pedigree only gives small hints at stamina. I believe his connections have a
better shot with Went the Day Well.
Optimizer: His
runner-up finish in the Rebel Stakes (GII) was his most impressive start in
quite some time, but the fast fractions set him up for his performance. He has
not fared well against the best in the past, but perhaps he has improved. Or,
perhaps, the Rebel was a fluke. Only time will tell.
Paynter: He is
only on this list for his talent, but I hope that his connections skip the
Derby for him. He has the pedigree for it, but not the experience. I would not
be surprised if he made a splash in the Illinois Derby (GII) on April 7, but
with only a maiden sprint currently under his belt, Paynter is certainly not
ready for the grueling Kentucky Derby.
Prospective: His
good performances this year may just be due to an affinity towards the Tampa
Bay Downs’ surface. He was a successful juvenile in Canada, but did not defeat
a single horse in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He will need to prove himself.
Street Life: He has
been incredibly impressive and certainly has a Derby pedigree, but Street Life
has no graded stakes earnings. He will quickly need to acquire an abundant amount
of them to be allowed in the Kentucky Derby starting gate, but if he does not,
look for him in later races.
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