Saturday, May 4, 2013

Kentucky Derby 2013: The Sloppy Track


Each year, the worry that the track will come up sloppy for the Kentucky Derby (GI) lurks in the minds of fans, analysts, and handicappers. With a track already labeled as sloppy, Derby contenders’ ability to run well in the mud has joined the analysis of the Derby field. For my main analysis of the Derby field, please click here.

Listed below are all of the horses entered to run in the 2013 Run for the Roses, along with descriptions of the mud influences in their pedigrees and their previous runs in the mud, if they exist. The runners are listed in post position order.

2. Oxbow: This colt’s sire, Awesome Again, was a winner in the slop and is a son of mud influence Deputy Minister. His broodmare sire, Cee’s Tizzy, is a hidden mud influence, being a grandson of In Reality – a major force in the pedigree of mudders. Also, like In Reality, Mr. Prospector – known for having a large impact on horses in the slop – resides in Oxbow’s third generation.

Oxbow has never raced over an off-track. Please read about Oxbow in greater detail in my article “Derby Hopeful: Oxbow.”

3. Revolutionary: His sire, War Pass, was a dominant winner in the 2007 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI), which was contested over a sloppy track. His broodmare sire, A.P. Indy, is an underestimated mud influence and his third generation is home to Mr. Prospector. However, his dam ran poorly in her only start over the slop.

Although Revolutionary has never competed over a muddy or sloppy track, he was a dominant winner over a track labeled “good” in his maiden victory. Interestingly, two of his jockey's (Calvin Borel) three Derby wins, have come over an off-track. Please read about Revolutionary in greater detail in my article “Derby Hopeful: Revolutionary.”

Revolutionary
Photo by Brittlan Wall

4. Golden Soul:
Although Golden Soul’s sire, Perfect Soul, was a turf horse, the colt’s broodmare sire is Mr. Prospector – one of the top mud influences in the breed.

Golden Soul has no off-track experience.

5. Normandy Invasion: This colt’s sire, Tapit, has sired an abundance of mud lovers, although Tapit himself was ninth in a Derby run over a sloppy track. Normandy Invasion does have the presence of Fappiano in his fourth generation to his advantage.

Normandy Invasion has never raced over an off-track. Please read about Normandy Invasion in greater detail in my article “Derby Hopeful: Normandy Invasion.”

6. Mylute: This colt is bred very well for the mud, as his sire Midnight Lute was not only a winner of the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (GI) in the slop, but Mylute is a descendant of the Fappiano sire line. The presence of Deputy Minister on the top side of his pedigree is beneficial, as is his 5 X 4 inbreeding to top mud influence In Reality.

Mylute has never competed over a muddy or sloppy track. Please read about Mylute in greater detail in my article “Derby Hopeful: Mylute.”

7. Giant Finish: Sired by Frost Giant, a horse that was primarily raced over the turf, Giant Finish is inbred to 4 X 3 to Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew, who can be found in the pedigree of many mudders. The broodmare sire of his sire, Gone West, has been an influential mud sire.

Giant Finish was a poor fifth in his only sloppy try, although he was a winner over a track labeled “good” in his subsequent start.

8. Goldencents: This colt’s grandsire, Harlan’s Holiday, won a grade three over a “wet fast” track and his dam’s grandsire, Forty Niner, has proven to be rather impactful in the pedigrees of mud horses, being a son of Mr. Prospector. In his fifth generation, you can find His Majesty, a strong mud influence.

Goldencents has only raced on a fast or synthetic track. Please read about Goldencents in greater detail in my article “Derby Hopeful: Goldencents.”

9. Overanalyze: On an off-track, Overanalyze should benefit from being inbred 4 X 4 to Mr. Prospector. The grandsire of his dam, Private Account, was bred for mud, being by Damascus and out of a Buckpasser mare.

Overanalyze has no off-track experience. Please read about Overanalyze in greater detail in my article “Derby Hopeful: Overanalyze.”

10. Palace Malice: This colt’s pedigree suggests an off-track shouldn’t be an issue. His sire, Curlin, was a dominant winner of the Breeders’ Cup Classic (GI) in the slop and is a grandson of both Mr. Prospector and Deputy Minister. His dam traces back to Relaunch, a major mud influence.

Palace Malice is one of few horses with off-track experience, having finished a good second over a sloppy track at Gulfstream Park earlier this year. Please read about Palace Malice in greater detail in my article “Derby Hopeful: Palace Malice.”

Palace Malice
Photo by Brittlan Wall

11. Lines of Battle: This Europe-based colt may seem to be a turf and synthetic horse, but his sire’s grandsire is Fappiano and the sire of Lines of Battle’s granddam is His Majesty.

Lines of Battle, having never raced on dirt, has no experience over a muddy or sloppy track.

12. Itsmyluckyday: His sire, Lawyer Ron, broke his maiden on a sloppy track and his dam, a granddaughter of Seattle Slew, was a dominant winner over the slop in the biggest win of her career. Itsmyluckyday’s granddam is a daughter of Crafty Prospector, a mud influence sired by Mr. Prospector.

Not only have both of Itsmyluckyday’s parents won over a sloppy track, but he has as well. His first stakes win came over a sloppy track in a race that was taken off the turf. Please read about Itsmyluckyday in greater detail in my article “Derby Hopeful: Itsmyluckyday.”

Itsmyluckyday
Photo by Brittlan Wall

13. Falling Sky:
This colt’s sire, Lion Heart, was a good second behind Smarty Jones in the 2004 Kentucky Derby over a sloppy track. Within Falling Sky’s fourth generation are the mud influences Mr. Prospector and Seattle Slew.

Falling Sky has never contested over a sloppy or muddy track, but has won a race over a track labeled “good.”

14. Verrazano:
He will likely benefit from being inbred 4 X 3 to Mr. Prospector and his female family traces back to top slop influence Dr. Fager. His half-brother, El Padrino, broke his maiden by nearly 13 lengths over a sloppy track.

Verrazano has only raced on a fast track. Please read about Verrazano in greater detail in my article “Derby Hopeful: Verrazano.”

Verrazano
Photo by Brittlan Wall

15. Charming Kitten: It’s no secret that this horse is likely more suited for the turf or synthetic and his pedigree does not speak volumes for his chances over an off-track.

Charming Kitten has never raced on the dirt and therefore has no experience on a muddy or sloppy track.

16. Orb: The Kentucky Derby morning line favorite’s ancestry should support him in a run over an off-track. His grandsire is hidden mud influence A.P. Indy – a son of Seattle Slew – and his sire’s broodmare sire is Mr. Prospector, a horse Orb is inbred to 3 X 4. The sire of Orb’s dam sire is Fappiano and the colt also traces back to Damascus, both of which are major off-track influences. His fifth generation is also home to the influential mud horses Buckpasser and In Reality. Orb’s dam, Lady Liberty, was third – beaten less than 2 lengths – in one of her two starts over a sloppy track and won an allowance over a good track. In her other try over an off-track, she finished last of five, but her loss was more of a matter of being outclassed than not handling the track.

Orb has only competed on a fast track. Please read about Orb in greater detail in my article “Derby Hopeful: Orb.”

Orb
Photo by Brittlan Wall

17. Will Take Charge: Although Will Take Charge is from the Fappiano sire line and is inbred to that mud influence 3 X 4 and is a great-grandson of Deputy Minister, Will Take Charge was a poor sixth in his only start over a sloppy track. Please read about Will Take Charge in greater detail in my article “Derby Hopeful: Will Take Charge.”

18. Frac Daddy: Mr. Prospector appears in Frac Daddy’s pedigree twice and this colt’s sire, Scat Daddy, won his debut over a muddy track. However, his dam’s two attempts over a good track resulted in poor finishes.

Frac Daddy was a clear second in his debut, which came over a muddy track.

19. Java’s War: Like Revolutionary, Java’s War is sired by War Pass – who won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI) by a large margin over a sloppy track. War Pass’ broodmare sire is Mr. Prospector. Java’s War is inbred 4 X 3 to Blushing Groom, who has proven to be a useful mud influence.

Java’s War has only raced on the dirt twice and both of those efforts came over a fast track. Please read about Java’s War in greater detail in my article “Derby Hopeful: Java’s War.”

20. Vyjack: This colt’s grandsire, Harlan’s Holiday, won a grade three over a “wet fast” track and in his fourth and fifth generations, you can find the names of the likes of Blushing Groom, His Majesty, and Mr. Prospector. Please read about Vyjack in greater detail in my article “Derby Hopeful: Vyjack.”

Vyjack captured his stakes debut by 5 ¾ lengths over a sloppy track. 

1 comment:

  1. A nice blog presented and the information is written is very nicely shown, I just came through your blog it’s really good. Kentycky Derby Home Rentals

    ReplyDelete