HRN: 2013 Breeders' Cup Highlights: Secret Circle

Each time I post a new article on my Horse Racing Nation blog, I post a notice on this blog. These notices include an excerpt from the beginning of that article and a link to the piece. My latest Horse Racing Nation article is. . .

2013 Breeders' Cup Highlights: Secret Circle

"The heat was blistering, but the air conditioning and shelter of the house offered relief from the scorching July sun. I focused my eyes on the television screen, which displayed TVG’s coverage of the third race at Del Mar on Saturday, July 23, 2011 – a maiden special weight for two-year-olds going five and one-half furlongs. As soon as the juveniles broke from the gate, my eyes focused on an eye-catching bay colt carrying the famous red and yellow silks of Mike Pegram and partners. As soon as Trevor Denman called out the colt’s name – Secret Circle – I knew I would not soon forget it. . ."

Click here to read the rest of my newest Horse Racing Nation article.

Derby Top Ten #11

Countdown to Derby Day: 25 Days 

The Kentucky Derby (GI) trail is the most unpredictable course of events in all of horse racing. You can begin the year with a solid favorite like Union Rags, but four weeks out, you may end up with your number one horse as a horse that commenced the year with a victory as a huge longshot. By Derby day, things could very easily change drastically yet again.

I feel that my top five horses all have a valid case to take the top spot, but I had to rank them somehow. If they were all to be crossing a finish line, it would be a very tight blanket finish.

Here is my top ten list of 2012 Kentucky Derby contenders as of April 10.

1. I’ll Have Another: Many believed his dominant longshot victory in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (GII) to be a fluke, but the colt impressed me immediately in that win. He first appeared on my second Derby Top Ten and has been ranked in the top six ever since, his highest ranking coming when he was ranked in fourth twice. This is a colt who clearly loves to run, as he displayed in his Lewis victory. Though he romped in the Lewis, his Santa Anita Derby (GI) triumph was even more impressive, as the son of Flower Alley defeated a tougher field and completed the nine-furlong race in its fastest clocking since Point Given’s victory in 2001. He outkicked the previously top-ranked Creative Cause, his long stride allowing him to outduel the gray colt. He displayed great grit and determination, as well as a clear love of running. This colt just seems to be getting better and better and has every right to be number one.

2. Creative Cause: This colt is still a brilliant runner and is bred extremely well for distance. Though discouraging that he could not prevail in his battle with I’ll Have Another, the colt – as usual – turned in an excellent performance. Nonetheless, he was beat fair and square. It matters more in Louisville, however, and he still certainly has a valid shot at a Derby triumph. For more on why he is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.

3. Union Rags: Though disappointing that he lost the Florida Derby (GI), it is not discouraging. In fact, I believe the colt and Julien Leparoux learned plenty from the loss. Union Rags also proved that he is ready for more ground, as he found his best stride in the final sixteenth before galloping out ahead of the others. It could also be a good thing that he lost his final prep, as thirteen of the last twenty Kentucky Derby contenders did not win their last race before the Derby. For more on why Union Rags is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.

4. Take Charge Indy: With A.P. Indy as his sire and the multiple grade one-winning daughter of Dehere, Take Charge Lady, as his dam, Take Charge Indy’s pedigree suggests that Triple Crown distances will not be an issue. However, his front-running style just might. Nonetheless, with three-time Kentucky Derby-winning rider Calvin Borel as his jockey, Take Charge Indy certainly has an advantage that the others don’t.

5. Gemologist: There are mixed feelings surrounding Gemologist’s victory in the Wood Memorial Stakes (GI), but I believe they should mostly be positive feelings. The time was certainly not spectacular and was over three seconds slower than I’ll Have Another’s Santa Anita Derby win. Though Santa Anita is a much faster-playing track than Aqueduct, the one-mile fraction in the Wood was over two seconds slower than the final time of the Comely Stakes (GIII) for fillies over the same track. Nonetheless, Gemologist showed a great amount of heart. He appeared to be struggling in late stretch and it seemed as if Alpha would fly right past him, but the son of Tiznow found another gear to hold off Alpha, exhibiting the important quality of not wanting a horse to go past him. Being undefeated, the colt needed a test in his final prep before the Derby and he got just that. Don’t let the slow time of the Wood be too discouraging; this colt is capable of producing a fast time – he did so in his dominant allowance win at Gulfstream. He also has an advantage no other Derby contender has: two victories at Churchill Downs. For more on why he is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.

6. Alpha: Though he had had quite a victorious season prior to the Wood, I felt that he needed to prove himself in New York’s premier Derby prep. He did just that, running his heart out to finish second by a neck behind Gemologist. He rallied very well but just could not get past Gemologist. I could criticize him for this, but, as aforementioned, Gemologist seems to be the type of horse that doesn’t want another to pass him. Nonetheless, Alpha ran a very good race on Saturday and stamped himself as a serious Derby contender.

7. Bodemeister: He has some growing up to do, but Saturday’s Arkansas Derby (GI) should be a good learning experience for him. This race is expected to be an easier task for him than the Santa Anita Derby would have been. He already has a tough test under his belt from his runner-up finish in the San Felipe Stakes (GII), so it could certainly be a plus that his race in the Arkansas Derby is expected to be fairly easy, though he is facing tough stablemate Secret Circle. An easy start could be a great confidence boost and learning experience for this improving Bob Baffert trainee. But, more than likely, he will need a victory.

8. Dullahan: The Blue Grass Stakes (GI) on Saturday will tell us much more about him, but this half-brother to Mine That Bird has the right pedigree and what appears to be the right racing talent to be a top Derby threat. Trainer Dale Romans has had good performances in the past two Derbies, with a fourth-place finish by Shackleford last year and a third-place result by Paddy O’Prado in 2010. Perhaps this is his year. Still, Dullahan will have to run the race of his life.

9. Hansen: As I’ve said about this colt for quite a long time now, his talent cannot be denied. However, his ability to get ten furlongs is doubtful. He may be maturing, but like many others, we’ll know more after this weekend. In addition, it could certainly be to his advantage that he is making his final prep before the Derby over Polytrack, as he made his final prep for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI) over Polytrack before taking the Juvenile at Churchill.

10. Went the Day Well: By Derby runner-up Proud Citizen and out of a daughter of the two-time Breeders’ Cup Classic (GI)-winning Tiznow, this colt certainly seems to have the bloodlines that will allow him to conquer the Derby distance. He, unlike his connections’ Derby-winning Animal Kingdom, has already won over a dirt surface. He is likely to make his final start for the Kentucky Derby in the Lexington Stakes (GII) at Keeneland two weeks before the Run for the Roses.

Honorable Mentions:

Daddy Nose Best: Fairly successful over grass courses as a two-year-old, Daddy Nose Best has proved versatile as a sophomore, winning a graded stakes on the synthetic and on the dirt. He has displayed much grit and an impressive stretch drive. The main worry is that he has not faced the highest quality horses yet this year and when he did on the grass at the Breeders’ Cup, he did not exactly fare extremely well. Nonetheless, this Steve Asmussen trainee seems to be blossoming.

El Padrino: His stretch rally in the Florida Derby was uninspiring, which is discouraging in relation to his chances in the Kentucky Derby. Nonetheless, El Padrino is a talented horse with a distance-based pedigree. Still, he needs to step it up.

Heavy Breathing: He is quite inexperienced and that certainly could have played into his lackluster third-place finish in the Spiral Stakes (GIII), but if his pedigree is any suggestion, this colt has the potential to become a star. Should he get in one more start that will allow him to acquire adequate graded stakes earnings (he would likely need a victory), perhaps he could be a threat in the Derby. But, like his stablemate El Padrino, he will need to step it up.

Hero of Order: I don’t think he really wants to go much longer and I don’t know that he’s as talented as so many others. In addition, since he is not nominated, he may not make it into the Derby field anyways.

Howe Great: He can run on both dirt and turf and though he has Sunday Silence as his grandsire, his pedigree doesn’t give much more suggestion for distance. We’ll learn more about him in the Blue Grass on Saturday.

Mark Valeski: It has been declared that his lameness after the Louisiana Derby is not an issue. He is a game horse, but he may be the type that tries hard every time but never quite gets there. Nonetheless, he is tough.

Optimizer: He’ll need to prove himself in Saturday’s Arkansas Derby, showing that his impressive runner-up finish in the Rebel Stakes (GII) was not a fluke.

Prospective: We’ll know much more about him after Saturday, when he takes on several top-class horses in the Blue Grass. With a good performance, he could prove that he’s not just a Tampa Bay Downs hit. But it must be taken into consideration that, even if he runs a great race on Saturday, a good performance could be due to the fact that the race is on the synthetic, as that is the surface he excelled over as a juvenile.

Secret Circle: Still a personal favorite of mine, this colt clearly has a will to win. He will face a tougher field in the Arkansas Derby than he has in his past two starts, but if he’s as tenacious as he has been and can live up to the stamina in his pedigree, then Secret Circle could certainly turn in another good performance. This race should tell us if he’s going to the Kentucky Derby or not.

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Derby Top Ten #8

Countdown to Derby Day: 48 Days

This is my top ten list of Kentucky Derby contenders as of March 18.

1. Union Rags: This colt is full of pure talent and clearly loves to run. He was extremely professional in his Fountain of Youth Stakes (GII) victory, effortlessly galloping to victory. He could face a deep field in the Florida Derby (GI) on March 31, but if he’s as talented as he seems to be, we could see something spectacular from him yet again. For more on why he is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.

2. Creative Cause: He is certainly bred to run all day and was brilliant in his triumph in the San Felipe Stakes (GII), despite running greenly in the stretch, which could be a result of being struck by the whip. The way he accelerated just as he hit the wire was incredibly impressive, especially considering how far ahead of the others he galloped out. It also must be noted that he galloped out in front of every horse after the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI). Once Creative Cause has his mind on running, it is hard to defeat him. He is expected to run next in the Santa Anita Derby (GI) on April 7. For more on why he is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.

3. El Padrino: He is a tough, gritty colt with bloodlines and conformation that should allow him to handle long distances. He has run extremely well both over fast and sloppy tracks and has displayed professionalism in each of his starts. He could start next in the Florida Derby (GI) on March 31 or the Louisiana Derby (GII) on April 1. For more on why he is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.

4. Gemologist: He made the top ten of the first two editions of this list, but became an honorable mention the longer his sophomore debut was put off. He needed to get a race in which he displayed that he had matured and grown faster over the winter. He ran exactly that race on Friday at Gulfstream, defeating the grade one-winning Currency Swap in a one-mile open allowance that became practically his only choice when travel complications kept him from shipping to Oaklawn for the Rebel Stakes (GII). He was hardly asked at all by Javier Castellano en route to a 7-length victory. In fact, he was in hand for the majority of the homestretch. He completed the final quarter of a mile in 24.69 seconds despite only slight urging. He completed the eight-furlong distance in 1:35.95, a much faster one-mile clocking than his one-mile splits in his allowance optional claiming (2.57 seconds quicker) and Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (GII) (1.79 seconds quicker) victories as a juvenile. It was the perfect sophomore debut. He may have led the entire way in the allowance on Friday, but he has proven in the past that he can rate off the pace. By Tiznow and out of a Mr. Prospector mare, Gemologist surely should be able to handle the Triple Crown distances. In addition, he already has two very important wins over the Churchill Downs surface. His final prep is undecided, but is likely to come in April.

5. I’ll Have Another: Though I do not particularly care for his connection’s decision to not give him a race between his Robert B. Lewis Stakes (GII) win and the Santa Anita Derby (GI), I believe this colt is underrated. He has good form, a pedigree that hints at a future in route races, and he clearly enjoys to race. He will need to turn in a terrific performance in the Santa Anita Derby on April 7, but I believe he is capable of doing so.

6. Bodemeister: He did appear to be slightly fatigued after his game effort in the San Felipe, but he ran extremely well in that race and it was his first try around two turns. He will grow more robust under the care of Bob Baffert, especially considering his connections think highly of him after his dazzling maiden victory and tremendous second-place effort in the San Felipe. He may make his final prep for the Kentucky Derby in the Santa Anita Derby on April 7.

7. Mark Valeski: He was extremely tough in his runner-up finish behind El Padrino in the Risen Star Stakes (GII), giving the colt all he had before falling a nose short. His pedigree suggests that he will be able to get the Derby distance of ten furlongs, as he is by a Derby runner-up and has the same broodmare sire, Fortunate Prospect (RIP), as this year’s Santa Anita Handicap (GI) winner, Ron the Greek. He will likely race next in the Louisiana Derby (GII) on April 1.

8. Dullahan: If any horse has the pedigree to be able to be competitive at the Derby distance, it’s Dullahan, as he is a half-brother to the 2009 Kentucky Derby winner, Mine That Bird. He has proven that he is talented, as he won the Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity (GI) at Keeneland as a two-year-old before closing well to finish fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile behind Hansen, Union Rags, and Creative Cause. His 2012 debut in the Palm Beach Stakes (GIII) on March 11 was very respectable, as he closed to finish second after not having run in four months. It is anticipated that Dullahan will make his final prep for the Kentucky Derby in the Blue Grass Stakes (GI) over the same racetrack at which he ran his best race.

9. Hansen: We all know he is brilliant, but there is plenty of room for doubt when it comes to the distance question. He can get a mile and one-sixteenth and certainly has the potential to get nine furlongs, but I am unconvinced that he can be victorious at ten furlongs. He has improved, proving that he can rate, but that does not confirm that he will be triumphant at long distances. He is expected to make his final start before the Kentucky Derby in the Wood Memorial Stakes (GI) on April 7.

10. Secret Circle: Despite the fact that he has a pedigree full of stamina, it seems as if Secret Circle has distance limitations. However, his victories in the Southwest Stakes (GIII) and the Rebel Stakes (GII) were certainly steps in the right direction. His Rebel win on Saturday was very impressive, as, instead of running on or just off a quick pace, he found a position in fourth. Yet another factor of his triumph in the Rebel that was remarkable was that the son of Eddington dug in to get past Scatman in late stretch though it has been revealed that the colt is not the best about going past horses in the stretch.  Optimizer was gaining ground on him, but Secret Circle found enough to hold him off. His final time for the mile and one-sixteenth race was 1.87 seconds (approximately 9 ½ lengths) slower than Union Rags’ time in the Fountain of Youth and .71 seconds (about 3 ½ lengths) slower than Hansen’s time in the Gotham. However, though Secret Circle’s final sixteenth of a mile was .48 seconds slower than Union Rags’, it was only .04 seconds slower than Hansen’s. Secret Circle is a horse that is bred for long distances but will likely be more successful at shorter ones. He may make his next start in the nine-furlong Arkansas Derby (GI) on April 14, which should tell us more about him. For more on why he has the potential to become a top Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.

Honorable Mentions:

Alpha: He is definitely talented and well-bred, but has not been beating up on much. His connections have been quite indecisive on his final start before the Kentucky Derby, which could come in the Florida Derby on March 31, the Louisiana Derby on April 1, the Louisiana Derby on April 1 or the Arkansas Derby on April 14. They do not want to run him against horses they view as extremely tough, such as Union Rags and Hansen, but the colt needs to prove himself and needs to get a race in.

Castaway: He easily won the first division of the Southwest Stakes (GIII), but it was slower than Secret Circle’s victory in the second and final division. He was also recently outworked by Secret Circle, which may show that he is simply not fast enough. However, his pedigree (sired by Street Sense and out of a Storm Cat mare) shows that he very well may be much more appreciative of longer distances.

Heavy Breathing: Heavy Breathing is royally bred, being by Giant’s Causeway and out of a direct descendant of La Troienne that has already produced a grade one winner. He has been impressive in his two starts, winning them both handily. However, he will need to prove that his royal bloodlines and remarkable performances are legitimate. He will get his chance to do so in the Spiral Stakes (GIII) on March 24, which Animal Kingdom used as a launch pad prior to his Run for the Roses victory.

Howe Great: He has been brilliant this year and is proven on dirt, but though the sire of his sire is the Kentucky Derby and Preakness-winning Sunday Silence, his pedigree does not offer much encouragement as far as Triple Crown distances are concerned. However, he has the right connections to get him there: Graham Motion and Team Valor.

Optimizer: After a string of very disappointing finishes, which included an eighth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and a ninth-place finish in the Risen Star Stakes (GII), Optimizer ran an impressive second in the Rebel, closing quickly to finish second behind Secret Circle. The fractions may have set him up for this, but the D. Wayne Lukas trainee may have turned a new page.

Paynter: He is certainly talented, but I no longer feel as if he has a position in the top ten. Yes, he is making his next start in the Illinois Derby (GII), but he is going from five and one-half furlongs to nine furlongs, which is a huge jump. In addition, contending in the Kentucky Derby off of just two starts is not an advantage by any means. Though I would love to see him in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May, I believe it would be rushing things. Perhaps his connections should await the Preakness Stakes (GI), or at least make the goal the Breeders’ Cup Classic (GI). After all, he is by Awesome Again and out of a full sister to Tiznow.

Prospective: He was a good juvenile in Canada, but finished last in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile against many of these horses. He has flourished at Tampa Bay Downs this year, winning two of three starts, including the Tampa Bay Derby (GII).  Yet I am not extremely confident in how he would compete against many of the top Derby contenders.

Street Life: He has appeared on the honorable mentions list here several times (as well as in my article, Late Blooming Three-Year-Olds), as he impressed me in his breathtaking maiden victory, in which he closed in spectacular fashion to win. He won the Broad Brush Stakes on Saturday in similar fashion, but the race was not graded. By the Derby-winning Street Sense and out of a mare that is by the 1996 Derby winner, Grindstone, he is undoubtedly bred for the Derby. However, he would have to acquire a large amount of graded stakes earnings in his next start, which would need to come in time for the Derby. Perhaps he will not make it to Kentucky Derby, but look for him later on down the road.

Read more about many of the honorable mentions in my article, Late Blooming Three-Year-Olds.

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Derby Top Ten #1

The most anticipated race of the year is the Kentucky Derby (GI). As soon as the race is over, many already begin thinking about the next year’s running. There is no doubt about it; the Kentucky Derby is the greatest two minutes in sports.

This is the list of my top ten 2012 Kentucky Derby contenders as of January 29.

1. Union Rags: As the early Kentucky Derby favorite, Union Rags is at the top of many Kentucky Derby lists. The son of Dixie Union won his first three starts impressively before falling a head short to Hansen in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI). However, he showed up in all four of his races in 2011, displaying his sheer talent. He has a fine pedigree and is a very well-built horse with nearly flawless conformation. Upon seeing him in person at the Breeders’ Cup, I was able to tell that Union Rags is a very classy individual that carries himself with much confidence. He has been working out for trainer Michael Matz at Palm Meadows Training Center, posting pleasing workouts over the dirt surface. His most recent work was a 1:00.82 five-furlong work. As long as Union Rags learns to race less greenly and continues to improve while maintaining his incredible talent, he will be very difficult to beat. Trainer Michael Matz is pointing him towards the Fountain of Youth Stakes (GII) at Gulfstream Park on February 26. For more on why Union Rags is a top Derby contender, please read my Derby Hopeful article on him by clicking here.

2. Discreet Dancer: This Todd Pletcher trainee has been incredibly impressive, winning his first two starts – a maiden special weight and an allowance at Gulfstream Park – by a combined 15 ¼ lengths. He is clearly extremely talented and there is no telling how good he is yet. He will need to prove himself against graded stakes company, but it seems as if he should handle the step up in class well. His pedigree may possibly have distance limitations, but with Gone West as his broodmare sire, he may be able to handle the stretch out in distance. What intrigues me most about his pedigree is that his fourth dam is Lassie Dear, a Reine De Course mare who produced Weekend Surprise – the dam of A.P. Indy and Summer Squall. This hints that he may be better suited to routing than many think. His next start is unknown. For more on why Discreet Dancer is a top Derby contender, please read my Derby Hopeful article on him by clicking here.

3: Algorithms: After two impressive victories at two renowned racetracks (Belmont and Gulfstream), Algorithms emerged on many Derby lists. A son of the young, successful stud Bernardini, Algorithms sat near the pace in his debut at Belmont before stylishly drawing off to win by 5 ¼ lengths. He didn’t start for over six months, reappearing in a six and one-half-furlong allowance optional claiming at Gulfstream Park. He sat off the pace before battling the highly-touted Consortium down the stretch. After digging deep, the bay colt prevailed by a length before galloping out impressively. Today in the Holy Bull Stakes (GIII), the Todd Pletcher trainee effortlessly galloped past Hansen to win by 5 lengths in a final time of 1:36.17 for one mile over a sloppy track at Gulfstream Park. His Preakness Stakes (GI)-winning sire, Bernardini, is of course by the Belmont Stakes- and Breeders’ Cup Classic-winning A.P. Indy. The bottom side of his pedigree also hints that Algorithms will be able to stretch out, as his dam is by Cryptoclearance, who produced the Belmont Stakes-winning Victory Gallop, the Prince of Wales-winning Cryptocloser, and the Breeders’ Cup Classic-winning Volponi. Plus, he is a direct descendant of a Reine De Course mare in Qurrat-Al-Ain. Without a doubt, Algorithms has the makings of a successful racehorse and has already been incredibly impressive. I have a good feeling about him. He may make his next start in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (GII) at Gulfstream Park on February 26.

4. Creative Cause: One of the top juveniles of 2011, this son of Giant’s Causeway looks to maintain his class as a three-year-old. He has raced primarily in southern California, other than his game third-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs. He has never finished out of the money and his wins in the Best Pal Stakes (GII) and Norfolk Stakes (GI) were very impressive. By a prominent sire capable of producing distance horses in Giant’s Causeway and out of a grade one-winning mare who won four stakes races at one mile or longer, Creative Cause should have no problem with the Derby distance. Trainer Mike Harrington is pointing him towards the San Vicente Stakes (GII) at Santa Anita on February 19.

5. Liaison: One of the most quickly improving colts on the Derby trail, Liaison has only suffered one loss in his career. After finishing third in a Del Mar maiden special weight, he won his next three starts: a maiden special weight at Santa Anita, the Real Quiet Stakes at Hollywood Park, and the CashCall Futurity (GI) at Hollywood. In both the Real Quiet and the CashCall Futurity, Liaison held off late runs by Rousing Sermon. Though the other colt was closing impressively, Liaison was determined to hold him off and did so, also galloping out in front. This shows me that he does not want another horse to finish in front of him, which is obviously a very important characteristic. With the late Indian Charlie as his sire, many will doubt Liaison’s ability to get the Derby distance, but through his dam, he traces back to several Belmont Stakes (GI, 12F) winners, such as Victory Gallop, A.P. Indy, Seattle Slew, Secretariat, Native Dancer, Nashua, and Blue Larkspur. In fact, his dam directly traces back to the x-factor (large heart trait) carrier Blue Larkspur (as does Creative Cause’s dam). This colt is royally bred and has plenty of heart. This makes for a deadly combination. Shall he continue his awesome performances, he will likely climb higher on this list. Trainer Bob Baffert is pointing him towards the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (GII) at Santa Anita Park on February 4.

6. Rousing Sermon: This colt has become somewhat of a “wise guy” horse. With impressive closing rallies behind Liaison in his past two starts, Rousing Sermon has shown the potential to become a top colt on the Derby trail. He has already started six times and has not yet finished out of the money. After breaking his maiden and running third in two California-bred stakes, Rousing Sermon was victorious in the Bob Benoit California Cup Juvenile Stakes. He followed up that win with two impressive seconds to Liaison. By a young son of the outstanding sire Pulpit and out of an Awesome Again mare, Rousing Sermon’s pedigree features plenty of successful distance horses that produced horses capable of routing, such as A.P. Indy, Alydar, Northern Dancer, Nearco, and Blushing Groom. Rousing Sermon seems to be coming into his own and once he does, he will be difficult to hold off. Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer is pointing him towards the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (GII) at Santa Anita on February 4.

7. Out of Bounds: After his win in the Sham Stakes (GIII) over Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint champion Secret Circle, Out of Bounds found his position on many Kentucky Derby watch lists. He was very green in that race and took much urging from Garret Gomez to reach the front. His stride was very choppy, but since he is a very tall, green horse, that is understandable. Like Discreet Dancer, there are doubts about distance in his pedigree due to being sired by the brilliant miler Discreet Cat. However, he is a grandson of the distance-producing Unbridled’s Song and by being a son of the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (GI)-winning Unbridled Elaine, he is a direct descendant of the 1956 Broodmare of the Year, Swoon. He clearly has plenty of talent and a royal pedigree, but he will need to mature a bit. Trainer Eoin Harty is pointing him towards the San Felipe Stakes (GII) at Santa Anita on March 10.

8. Hansen: The fields he faced in his first two starts may not have been as high quality as those at tracks like Saratoga, Santa Anita, or Belmont, but Hansen proved superior, winning them by an outstanding combined winning margin of 25 ½ lengths. Though many doubted him for running at Turfway Park instead of tracks such as the abovementioned ones, he was able to defeat top two-year-olds when it counted most: the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He proved very tough in that race and never gave up, holding off Union Rags to win by a head. In his sophomore debut, the Holy Bull Stakes (GIII), Hansen stumbled out of the gate before setting blazing fractions over a sloppy track. Algorithms blew right past him, leaving the 2011 Champion Two-Year-Old 5 lengths behind in second. Many doubt Tapit’s ability to produce a sophomore capable of routing, but the sire has produced Careless Jewel – winner of the Alabama Stakes (GI, 10F) at three, Concord Point – winner of the West Virginia Derby (GII, 9F) at three, Rattlesnake Bridge – runner-up in the Travers Stakes (GI, 10F) at three, Tapizar – winner of the San Fernando Stakes (GII, 8.5F) at four, and Zazu – winner of the Lady’s Secret Stakes (GI, 8.5) at three. Yet Hansen’s sophomore debut did not help his case for a successful sophomore routing career. He will need to learn how to relax, as setting fast fractions and lasting in the Kentucky Derby is a very difficult thing to do. Still, Hansen definitely has talent and when he’s on the top of his game, he is very difficult to pass. He may be seen next in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (GII) on February 26.

9. Gemologist: In 2009, a WinStar Farm-owned and Todd Pletcher-trained colt won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (GII) before winning the Kentucky Derby the next year. In 2011, a WinStar Farm-owned and Todd Pletcher-trained colt won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and looks to do the same as the 2009 victor. His name is Gemologist. The son of the two-time Breeders’ Cup Classic (GI)-winning Tiznow is undefeated in three starts, all of which have come in Kentucky. In his Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes victory, Gemologist defeated the highly-touted Ever So Lucky. Another important aspect of his KJCS win was that it was against a large field at Churchill Downs, which gives him a somewhat similar experience to the Kentucky Derby. His pedigree hints that he will have no distance limitations, as his sire, Tiznow, was a successful router and has produced horses of the same ability. Also, he traces back to Native Dancer four times within his pedigree, three times through Northern Dancer. He clearly has sheer talent and an impressive pedigree, but he may need to step it up a notch to be highly competitive on the Derby trail, as his times are not exactly spectacular. His next start is unknown.

1o: Secret Circle: I am not giving up on this colt, who I have followed since his impressive maiden victory at Del Mar. After he won the Jack Goodman Stakes at Santa Anita easily, I saw him win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint in person. It was clear that he had some learning to do, as he desperately needed to learn how to relax. After all, he helped Trinniberg run the first quarter of the Juvenile Sprint in a breathtaking 20.96 seconds. Bob Baffert began working on teaching the colt to relax and took off the blinkers before Secret Circle made his two-turn debut in the Sham Stakes (GIII) at one mile. This time, he settled off the pace before taking the lead as the field turned for home. He ran well, but could not hold off the charge of Out of Bounds. It was a very good learning experience for him and I hope that Baffert will continue trying to route Secret Circle, as the colt is of course by the Pimlico Special (GI, 9.5F)-winning Eddington and out of a Dixieland Band mare. In addition, his fifth, sixth, and seventh dams are all Reine De Course mares. If Secret Circle can continue to learn, he may be able to be ranked higher on this list. Trainer Bob Baffert is pointing him towards the San Vicente Stakes (GII) on February 19. For more on why Union Rags is a top Derby contender, please read my Derby Hopeful article on him by clicking here.

The Kentucky Derby winner's enclosure awaits.
Photo by Mary Cage

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Derby Hopeful: Hierro

In 2011, I posted “Juvenile Spotlights” about two-year-olds I had followed since early on in their careers. Now that it’s 2012, everyone’s focus is on the Kentucky Derby. Some horses from past Juvenile Spotlights will be featured, as well as additional horses on the Derby trail.

A colt I have followed since his second career start, Hierro is one of the newly-turned three-year-olds that impressed me the most last year. After two good efforts – the second of which he landed on my watch list –, the son of the grade one-winning Hard Spun brilliantly broke his maiden at Churchill Downs.

Hard Spun, his sire, was a versatile racehorse and was 2011’s second-leading first-crop sire. A multiple stakes winner at two, the son of the influential Danzig won four graded stakes as a three-year-old, including the seven-furlong King’s Bishop Stakes (GI). He also finished second in two prestigious ten-furlong races: the Kentucky Derby (GI) and the Breeders’ Cup Classic (GI). In fact, Hard Spun placed in four grade ones as a sophomore, three of which were classics. The beautifully bred bay won at a range of five and one-half furlongs to nine furlongs and won on two different surfaces: dirt and synthetic. With a versatile sire and dam, Hard Spun should pass on his versatility to his offspring.

Hierro’s dam, the grade-three placed Brief Bliss, has also produced a multiple stakes winner who is also graded stakes-placed, a stakes-placed filly, winners on every surface, and winners in sprint and route races. Through his grandsire Navarone, Hierro traces back to Never Bend, who traces back to the incredibly influential mare La Troienne.

We have frequently seen how important a prior start over the Churchill surface is for horses in the Kentucky Derby. For instance, Super Saver won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (GII) at Churchill Downs as a two-year-old, Street Sense ran twice at Churchill Downs as a juvenile – including a dominant victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI), Monarchos raced under the Twin Spires once as a two-year-old, Real Quiet ran at Churchill three times as a juvenile, and Grindstone made one start at the Louisville track as a two-year-old. If Hierro makes it to the Kentucky Derby, he will already have not only a start at Churchill Downs to his credit, but a win.

It is not just the fact that Hierro already has a Churchill victory to his credit that is impressive. The way he won that start is even more imposing. He showed the ability to rate, sitting just off the leaders for most of the race before taking the lead just before the quarter pole. From then on, he easily drew away from the field to win by 5 ¼, running the final eighth in 12.66 seconds despite never really being asked.

Hierro’s next start should come at the Santa Anita meet, where trainer Steve Asmussen has stabled many horses. The Stonestreet Stables-owned colt has worked five times over Santa Anita’s dirt surface, the most recent an impressive 47.60 half-mile breeze. He is being pointed toward the Sham Stakes (GIII) at one mile at Santa Anita on January 7, where he will likely meet up with my favorite three-year-old colt, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint-winning Secret Circle.

With his versatile pedigree and racing style, Hierro looks like a force to be reckoned with. We should soon find out how he competes against graded stakes company. Should he be competitive and stay sound and healthy, Hierro will be a threat on the Derby trail.


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Derby Hopeful: Secret Circle

In 2011, I posted “Juvenile Spotlights” about two-year-olds I had followed since early on in their careers. Now that it’s 2012, everyone’s focus is on the Kentucky Derby. Some horses from past Juvenile Spotlights will be featured, as well as additional horses on the Derby trail.

Secret Circle captured my attention more so than any other two-year-old in 2011. On July 23, 2011, I kept my eyes glued to the television for the third race at Del Mar. As a two-year-old race, I was eager to see how the race would play out. A superstar could very well come out of the race.

When Secret Circle overcame his rail position and pounced to the lead in the early stages of the race, my eyes focused on the flashy bay. I had missed the post parade, so I hadn’t gotten a good look at the horses prior to the race. However, this colt just screamed class and I could tell he was a Bob Baffert trainee with his Mike Pegram silks and blue shadow roll. My eyes were riveted by the bay two-year-old and I didn’t look at any other horse as the juveniles raced down the backstretch of the synthetic track.

Secret Circle
Photo: Terri Cage

He moved beautifully, his knees flat and his stride fluid as he galloped along on the lead. With slight asking from Rafael Bejarano, Secret Circle accelerated and drew away from the field. In the final stages of the race, Bejarano geared the colt down and even pumped his fist after they crossed the wire. Secret Circle had impressed me exceedingly and galloped his way into my heart.

Immediately following the race, my words were, “I found my Derby horse!”

Not only had Secret Circle impressed me with the way he ran, but when I looked at his pedigree, I was left even more fascinated. He is by one of my personal favorite stallions, Eddington, who is by the Kentucky Derby (GI)- and Breeders’ Cup Classic (GI)-winning Unbridled. He is the second foal out of his dam, Ragtime Hope, who was a multiple stakes winner.

Secret Circle earned his spot in my Equibase Virtual Stable © and I followed him closely. However, he did not start for over eleven weeks. He made his return in the Jack Goodman Stakes at Santa Anita. Not only was it his first start against stakes company, but it was his first start on dirt. It was not a problem, however. The son of the grade one-winning Eddington drew off to win the stakes by 5 ¼ lengths and was geared down late, though he drifted in slightly.

With his two remarkable victories, the last stop for the Bob Baffert trainee’s juvenile career was the inaugural Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint at Churchill Downs. I was excited to see the colt in person and was impressed by the class he carried himself with as he strolled past me, just inches away. I knew the race was his.

Photo: Terri Cage

The win didn’t come as easily as expected, at least in terms of winning margin. Secret Circle and Trinniberg set an absolutely wicked pace: the first quarter in 20.96, the first half in 44.55, and the initial five furlongs in 56.99. Secret Circle didn’t come home very quickly (13.53), but that was to be expected with the slow track labeled “good” and blazing fractions. He drifted out severely, but surely he was weary from the intense fractions and tiring track. Plus, he was running with blinkers for the first time.

Secret Circle returned to the work tab thirteen days after his Breeders’ Cup victory and has recorded six works since that win. The point of these works was to teach the fast colt to relax. He has been worked with and without blinkers, though the bay colt seems to be more relaxed without them. On December 22, he worked in company with Candrea without blinkers, relaxing several lengths behind her before catching up. Six days later, the colt went six furlongs in 1:10.80. He is expected to make his three-year-old debut in the Sham Stakes (GIII) at Santa Anita on January 7, which would also be his two-turn debut.

Many people doubt Secret Circle’s ability to go long, but I believe that if Bob Baffert continues to train the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint-winning colt to relax, Secret Circle will have no problem routing. His sire, Eddington, was by Unbridled, a horse that placed in the top four of all three 1990 Triple Crown races – including a victory in the Kentucky Derby –, won the ten-furlong Breeders’ Cup Classic as a three-year-old, finished second in the ten-furlong Secretariat Stakes (GI) on turf, and finished third in the Breeeders’ Cup Classic as a four-year-old. Eddington himself won two mile and three-sixteenth races: the Pimlico Special Handicap (GI) and the Gulfstream Park Handicap (GII). He also finished third in the mile and three-sixteenths Preakness Stakes (GI), fourth in the twelve-furlong Belmont Stakes (GI), and third in the ten-furlong Travers Stakes (GI).

The longest distance Secret Circle’s dam, Ragtime Hope, won at was a mile and one-sixteenth. Ragtime Hope is also a half-sister to Really Polish, whose greatest victory came in the mile and one-sixteenth Dogwood Stakes (GIII). Really Polish, whose longest winning distance was nine furlongs, also finished third in the nine-furlong Kentucky Oaks (GI).

As long as Secret Circle has the mental toughness to learn how to relax, he has the ability to go long. He is an extremely fast, talented colt that I will be closely following for the rest of his career. Hopefully this is only the beginning of his journey.


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Breeders' Cup Wrap: Day One (Beautiful Bluegrass: Day Three)

The track was very wet as the horses exercised over it early in the morning, jogging clockwise and galloping counter-clockwise. The Twin Spires loomed nearby as Breeders’ Cup horses made their final preparations over the track on Friday morning. I watched in awe of the famous Thoroughbreds until it was time to leave.

We weren’t going very far, though. We were soon in the Kentucky Derby Museum for the Zenyatta Luncheon. My excitement grew as I waited for the great mare’s connections to arrive and before long, I turned to see my favorite jockey, Mike Smith, standing just a few yards away. Finally, I would get to meet him in person.

I walked up to him, two Blood-Horse magazines with Zenyatta on the cover and a Sharpie in hand. After snapping a picture for him and his grandmother, he signed my magazines and I gave him a big hug, a gigantic grin stretching across my face and tears of joys filling my eyes. I never imagined I would get to receive an autograph and hug from Mike Smith.

My autographed Blood-Horse magazines
Photo by Mary Cage

Not long after I met Mike Smith, trainer John Shirreffs appeared. He kindly signed my Blood-Horse magazines and when I complimented him on Zenyatta, he simply said, “She’s just amazing, isn’t she?”

I later received autographs from Ann and Jerry Moss, as well as from Dottie Ingordo-Shirreffs. I was breathless the entire time. I’d dreamed of meeting Zenyatta’s connections, but I never imagined it would happen. Needless to say, I was on cloud nine.

Then it was time for the race card on the first day of Breeders’ Cup 2011 to get underway. My family and I headed to our seats, ready to watch some incredible racing. As we emerged from under the grandstand, I caught my breath. Straight across from me was the Kentucky Derby winner’s circle and just to my left was the main winner’s circle. As we were seated, I glanced behind me and looked up, only to be left even more breathless. It was one of the best views I’d ever seen. The Twin Spires were just above me.

After four non-Breeders’ Cup races, it was time for the Breeders’ Cup to begin. The first race of the world championships was one I was looking forward to the most: the inaugural running of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint. The heavy favorite in the race was my favorite two-year-old, Secret Circle.

Secret Circle in the
post parade for
the Juvenile Sprint
Photo by Mary Cage

I had followed the colt since his maiden (Juvenile Spotlight: Secret Circle) and was looking forward to seeing him in person. Despite not handling the track that was labeled ‘good’ very well, Secret Circle defeated Shumoos by a length. I stood along the rail for the race, as well as while the bay colt entered the winner’s circle. It was thrilling to be so close to my favorite colt as he won the first Breeders’ Cup race of 2011.

In the next race, talented turf fillies took the stage in the Juvenile Fillies Turf. In that race, Stephanie’s Kitten got up in late stretch under John Velazquez to pass Stopshoppingmaria. I again watched from the edge of the winner’s circle, smiling as I saw the joyous celebration of the winning filly’s connections.

As the upcoming race, the Filly & Mare Sprint, approached, many thought it would be Turbulent Descent’s for the taking. However, it was Musical Romance that received the blanket of flowers. I had considered picking the Calder-based filly, but I guess the star potential of the other fillies got to me. Though it was surprising that Turbulent Descent finished fifth, it didn’t shock me at all that the 20-1 shot pulled off the upset.

With the next race came the appearance of a superstar. My Miss Aurelia, a filly I had followed since before her maiden race, defeated a talented field by three lengths. I already knew My Miss Aurelia would make a big impression, but after watching her win the Juvenile Fillies, I felt that she will become something very special.

The Filly & Mare Turf was quite similar to last year, resulting in a longshot taking the race. Perfect Shirl, under John Velazquez, held off several other females as the horses headed towards the wire to score the upset.

Royal Delta winning the Ladies' Classic
Photo: Terri Cage

Then it was time for Friday’s headliner. As the sun sank beyond the horizon and the bright lights shone down on Churchill, the field for the Ladies’ Classic headed towards the paddock. I stood along the rail, just a few feet from the classy fillies and mares that passed by me: Miss Match, Pachattack, It’s Tricky, Satans Quick Chick, Ask the Moon, Royal Delta, Ultra Blend, Plum Pretty, and Super Espresso.

In one of the most incredible racing moments I’ve witnessed in person, I stood along the rail near the finish line as Royal Delta easily swept past the other fillies and mares to win by 2 ½ lengths. It was one of the most effortless races of the weekend. I continued to stand at my spot along the rail, watching as the classy filly entered the winner’s circle just a few feet from me. Like many of the moments I had spent in Kentucky, the experience of being so close to Royal Delta before, during, and after the race was breathtaking.

Royal Delta after winning the Ladies' Classic

Video by Mary Cage

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Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint

The Sentient Jet Juvenile Sprint is the newest addition to Breeders’ Cup weekend. Though many find it unnecessary, I see it as a great opportunity for two-year-old sprinters to showcase their talent for the Breeders’ Cup crowd. The following four colts are the ones I believe have the best shot. However, there will be plenty of other talented juveniles in the field, so it is not guaranteed that these four will perform the way I expect them to. It’s horse racing; anything could happen. Here are my top four picks for the Juvenile Sprint:

1. Secret Circle:  I have followed this colt since his maiden win, in which he immediately became my favorite juvenile colt. He may possibly run in the Juvenile instead, but it seems more likely that he will run in the Juvenile Sprint. In his maiden race on July 23 at Del Mar, the son of Eddington dominated the field, winning by 7 ¼ lengths. On October 10, Secret Circle easily won the Jack Goodman Stakes at Santa Anita. Though he is likely to run in the Juvenile Sprint, the bay colt has a good chance of stretching out in the future. Check out the Juvenile Spotlight I wrote about him at: http://pastthegrandstand.blogspot.com/2011/08/bafferts-next-superstar.html

2. Vexor:  This son of Wildcat Heir is coming off a win in the Nashua Stakes (GII) at Belmont Park, in which he battled with Trinniberg before crossing the wire three-quarters of a length in front. He seems to be very talented, but I am worried that the stretch duel may have taken too much out of him. However, in his only work since the Nashua, he worked a good 48.10 for a half-mile. Besides, by the time the Breeders’ Cup rolls around, it will have been nearly five weeks since he last ran.

3. Trinniberg: After finishing second at 68-1 in the Three Chimneys Hopeful Stakes (GI), Trinniberg battled with Vexor to finish second in the Nashua. The son of Teuflesberg seems to be no worse for the wear, as he turned in a bullet work at Churchill Downs for a half-mile in 48.20 on October 20. The colt has only been off the board once, when he finished fifth in the Three Chimneys Saratoga Special Stakes (GI) to Union Rags. Don’t count him out.

4. Hunt Crossing:  Despite hitting the gate in his first start, Hunt Crossing won his debut by an impressive four lengths for trainer Todd Pletcher. I followed him after that win, but the bay son of Corinthian did not have a good race over the slop in the Hopeful. However, he rebounded with a three-length victory in the Monmouth Park NATC Futurity. He recently worked four furlongs in 49.20 at Churchill Downs, which was the fifth fastest work out of forty. This is Todd Pletcher with a two-year-old; watch out.

*Update: Hunt Crossing is out with an injury.

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Did You Know...?

Photo: Terri Cage

This blog post is a bit different than the others I’ve written. Instead of writing an article, I decided I would write a list of “Did you know…?” questions about horses pointing towards the Breeders’ Cup.

Did you know that…?

·         BC Marathon contender Birdrun is a former claimer, having won a maiden claiming at Saratoga by over ten lengths as a three-year-old

·         If Holiday for Kitten runs in the BC Turf Sprint and wins, she will be the first filly or mare to win the race, though females have contested in the race nine times

·         The dam of BC “Win and You’re in” Natalma Stakes (GIII) winner Northern Passion  also ran in the Natalma, finishing fourth, beaten just 2 ¼ lengths

·         Dual grade one-winning juvenile filly Weemissfrankie, who so far has raced solely in California, is New York-bred

·         BC Juvenile or Juvenile Turf contender Dullahan is a half-brother to Mine That Bird

·         If Turbulent Descent wins the BC Filly & Mare Sprint, she will have won four grade one races at four different tracks

·         Jackson Bend did not win any races last year, but if he wins the BC Dirt Mile, he will have three victories this year, including two grade ones

·         If Goldikova wins the BC Mile for the fourth year in a row, she will surpass $8 million in earnings

·         Top BC Juvenile contenders Union Rags, Creative Cause, and Hansen have won eight races together, with a combined winning margin of 49 ½ lengths

·         The dam of America’s top candidate for the BC Filly & Mare Turf, Stacelita, was a stakes winner

·         In the last sixty days, BC Sprint contender Euroears has had four bullet works

·         Secret Circle, possible starter in either the BC Juvenile Sprint or Juvenile, has won his first two starts by a total winning margin of 12 ½ lengths

·         Mike Smith rode BC Ladies’ Classic contender Zazu in three of her first four starts

·         BC Turf contender Dean’s Kitten has only finished off the board once this year in seven starts

·         BC Classic contender Uncle Mo has had two bullet works in the last sixty days


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