2012 Belmont Stakes Field Analysis

Eleven Thoroughbreds have swept the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, and Belmont Stakes to become one of racing’s elite Triple Crown winners. Eleven Thoroughbreds have won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness prior to falling short in the Belmont since the most recent Triple Crown champion. It is safe to say that enthusiasm and disappointment have been recurring themes throughout the past thirty-three Triple Crowns.

Our last memory of the Triple Crown being conquered is Affirmed’s narrow victory over rival Alydar in the 1978 Belmont Stakes. Since then, there have been eighteen horses that have won just two legs of the Triple Crown – one of those horses still has one jewel left to go.

Ever since I’ll Have Another followed up his Kentucky Derby victory with a win in the Preakness, excitement has been building. On Saturday, it will be soaring through the roof. The colt is in pursuit of becoming the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978. America will have their eyes on I’ll Have Another, but though fans are eager for his chance to win, they have their guards up, because for over three decades, we have been let down. Is 2012 the year?

Listed below are all of the horses entered to run in the 2012 Belmont Stakes, along with descriptions of their pedigrees, racing records, final preparations, and my opinions of them. The colts are listed in post position order.

#1. Street Life: The sire of this colt is Street Sense, a two-time grade one winner at ten furlongs. His grandsire, Street Cry, is also the sire of the great Zenyatta, who was also victorious at ten furlongs, and Shocking, who won the near-16-furlong Melbourne Cup (GI). Street Life’s broodmare sire, Grindstone, won the 1996 Kentucky Derby and is a son of Unbridled, who sired Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker. Grindstone himself produced a Belmont victor in Birdstone, who also sired a Belmont champion in Summer Bird.

A colt I have followed since he broke his maiden, Street Life garnered his first career victory in his second race while making an impressive late rally to take a mile and seventy yards maiden special weight at Aqueduct. Following a closing win in the mile and one-sixteenth Broad Brush on the same track, Street Life finished sixth in the Wood Memorial Stakes (GI) after having too much ground to make up and not changing leads until late in the stretch. He then finished third in the nine-furlong Peter Pan Stakes (GII), making up much ground to close impressively before running out of room late. He looked like he was ready to keep going.

Street Life has been working at Belmont Park, posting mostly five-furlong breezes. His final work was a 1:01.15 five-furlong work in company. The colt has also had several strong gallops over the track.

Street Life will need to step it up on Saturday, but his pedigree and running style support him in his ability to get the twelve-furlong distance of the Belmont. He is a threat, but he will have to bring his A-game. For more on Street Life, please click here.

#2. Unstoppable U: This Ken McPeek trainee is sired by Exchange Rate, a horse who never won beyond a mile and one-sixteenth and was primarily successful as a sprinter. Exchange Rate is a lucrative sire of middle distance runners and sprinters. Though Unstoppable U’s dam never won beyond one mile, the colt’s damsire is Point Given, a son of Kentucky Derby and Belmont winner Thunder Gulch who won the Belmont by 12 ¼ lengths in the same final time that Affirmed captured the race, 2:26.80 – the sixth-fastest in history. Notably, the sire of Unstoppable U’s granddam is Triple Crown champion Seattle Slew.

Unstoppable U has only started twice, winning a six-furlong maiden at Aqueduct in late March prior to easily winning a one-mile allowance optional claiming at Belmont at the end of April. A twelve-furlong classic is an enormous step up for the colt.

His final work was an unremarkable 1:02.05 five-furlong work at Belmont on Sunday – a breeze that McPeek was not thrilled with. This is quite discouraging.

Though Unstoppable U should receive some stamina from his dam side, he is lacking plenty of it and two one-turn races, along with a string of four- and five-furlong works, certainly do not prepare him for twelve furlongs. A good race from Unstoppable U in the Belmont would be surprising.

#3. Union Rags: The sire of Union Rags, Dixie Union, was winless beyond nine furlongs and faded to finish fourth in his single ten-furlong attempt and is more useful as a sire of middle distance horses or sprinters. The colt’s dam is sired by Gone West, who produced multiple distance horses, including Belmont Stakes winner Commendable. Though his dam only won at six furlongs, Union Rags’ second dam was capable of winning graded stakes up to twelve furlongs. With horses such as Nijinsky, Seattle Slew, and Secretariat found in his pedigree, the distance may not be as much of a question as many believe it is.

Union Rags has shown that he needs a clean trip, but when he gets one, he is absolutely brilliant and difficult to defeat. He has not won since his spectacular Fountain of Youth Stakes (GII) victory in February, but he made good rallies in both the Florida Derby (GI) and the Kentucky Derby.

Union Rags has prepped for the Belmont at Fair Hill Training Center in Maryland and seems to be maturing. His most recent work was a bullet 59-flat five-furlong move over the dirt training track at Fair Hill, in which new rider John Velazquez was aboard. I would have preferred for him to have training time at Belmont, but he clearly has an affinity for the track, as he impressively won the Champagne Stakes (GI) there as a two-year-old.

Though there is some doubt in his pedigree as far as distance is concerned, Union Rags’ action and brilliance just may provide him with the ability to get the distance. Many have viewed him as overrated, but I believe he has become underrated. But Union Rags has several questions to answer in the Belmont. For more on Union Rags, please click here.

#4. Atigun: This colt’s sire, Istan, never won beyond a mile and a sixteenth, though he is by Gone West, who sired multiple grade one winners at the twelve-furlong distance of the Belmont, including Belmont victor Commendable. In addition, Atigun’s most successful half-sibling, Rimini Rebel, never won at a distance farther than a mile and one-sixteenth. However, his damsire is Dynaformer, who is a great stamina influence in a Thoroughbred’s pedigree. But the appearance of speedy horses such as Devil’s Bag and Dr. Fager on the dam side of Atigun’s pedigree do not bode well for his chance at a mile and one-half.

Atigun is winless in stakes company, only having a maiden special weight and two allowance optional claiming victories to his credit. He’s never finished in the money in a stakes race, his best performances being fifth-place finishes in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (GII) and the Arkansas Derby (GI). He has also never won beyond a mile and one-sixteenth.

Atigun has had plenty of time to get acclimated to Belmont Park, as he has had four works at the track, including a bullet work for four furlongs. However, his last two breezes have been at just a half-mile – not exactly a stamina-building distance.

I do not expect for Atigun to be competitive in Saturday’s Belmont.

#5. Dullahan: As a half-brother to Mine That Bird, many believe Dullahan is bred through-and-through for the Belmont. However, Mine That Bird finished a distant third in his Belmont pursuit, partially as a result of Calvin Borel’s early move. In addition, Mine That Bird was more thoroughly bred for the twelve-furlong distance, as he was sired by Belmont victor Birdstone. Dullahan, on the other hand, is by Even the Score, who never earned a win in a race longer than nine furlongs and only managed a third in his sole ten-furlong attempt. Even the Score has sired a grade one winner at ten furlongs in Take the Points, who was beaten 1 ½ lengths at eleven furlongs. However, Dullahan’s broodmare sire, Smart Strike, was the sire of English Channel – who won five races at eleven furlongs or longer – and Curlin – who came within a head of winning the 2007 Belmont Stakes.

Dullahan still remains winless on dirt. Though he has run some very good races on conventional dirt, he never seems to travel over it as well as he runs over synthetic. Though many have raved about his rally to attain third in the Derby, I feel as if he simply just did not have a good enough kick to get there and did not gallop out as well as I’ll Have Another. In addition, he was drifting out in late stretch, which is a bit discouraging. However, as a grinder, the stretch in distance could certainly be to his advantage.

Many have praised Dullahan’s bullet half-mile work that came on Sunday. The Dale Romans trainee travelled four furlongs in a dazzling 45.97, posting the fastest of sixty-six works at that distance. Though the work was similar to the one he posted before his win in the Blue Grass Stakes (GI), there is also a difference in distances. Prior to the Blue Grass, Dullahan travelled five furlongs in 57.40 in preparation for the nine-furlong race. On Sunday, he worked one furlong shorter for a race that is three furlongs longer. However, the colt did breeze a mile eight days prior and has been galloping at stamina-building distances.

Dullahan poses a huge spoiler threat in the Belmont. Though not as bred for stamina as his famous half-brother, he does appear to be able to go the distance. However, the dirt question still looms menacingly and the Belmont surface is not particularly kind to horses that prefer synthetics or turf, though he appears to be handling the track quite well. He is certainly one of the top Belmont contenders nonetheless. For more on Dullahan, please click here.

#6. Ravelo’s Boy: This colt appears to be bred more towards one-turn races or middle distances, as his sire is the late Lawyer Ron, a brilliant horse who never won beyond nine furlongs and was winless in four tries at ten furlongs. Lawyer Ron’s best offspring is Drill, a colt who has never been victorious beyond seven furlongs. The dam of Ravelo’s Boy never won at a distance longer than seven furlongs and is sired by French Deputy, a horse who never won farther than one mile and finished ninth in his sole ten-furlong attempt.

In thirteen starts, Ravelo’s Boy has only found the winner’s circle twice, has never been victorious in a stakes race, and has not raced outside of Florida. He started ten times as a two-year-old, acquiring his pair of wins then, and has contested solely in stakes races this year without success. He has not run since the Tampa Bay Derby (GIII) in March, in which he finished fifth.

Over the past sixty days, Ravelo’s Boy has put together a wide variety of workouts, spanning from three furlongs to seven, at Calder. His most recent work was a good six-furlong work in 1:11.80 on Sunday, but I find it discouraging that he has not had time to grow accustomed to Belmont.

Due to a non-stamina-based pedigree, mediocre racing performances, and little time to adapt to Belmont, I do not foresee a good race from Ravelo’s Boy in the Belmont.

#7. Five Sixteen: This colt should receive stamina from his sire, Invasor, as he captured the third leg of Uruguay’s Triple Crown, the Gran Premio Nacional (Uruguayan Derby) (GI), at a distance of 2500 meters, which is nearly 12.5 furlongs. However, his broodmare sire, Salt Lake, was brilliant as a sprinter and as a broodmare sire has been primarily lucrative in producing horses of the same nature. In fact, the cross on which Five Sixteen is bred only has an average winning distance of about six and one-half furlongs.

Five Sixteen did not break his maiden since his fifth start and next out, in his most recent race, he finished fourth of six in a nine-furlong allowance, beaten 11 ¾ lengths. Since that disappointing allowance finish, Five Sixteen has put together a string of five-furlong works at Belmont Park.

I believe all Five Sixteen has going for him is his rider, Rosie Napravnik. I don’t view him as a threat.

#8. Guyana Star Dweej: By Eddington and out of a Pine Bluff mare, Guyana Star Dweej has one of the more stamina-marked pedigrees in the field. Eddington was victorious as far as a mile and three-sixteenths and finished fourth in the 2004 Belmont. Guyana Star Dweej’s broodmare sire, Pine Bluff, won the 1992 Preakness prior to finishing third, beaten just approximately a length by A.P. Indy, in the Belmont. Guyana Star Dweej’s dam is a half-sister to the winner of the 1994 Breeders’ Cup Classic (10F, GI), Concern. Guyana Star Dweej is truly bred more along the lines of a ten-furlong runner, but since American horses are not really bred for twelve-furlongs anymore, this colt has one of the best pedigrees for the Belmont distance of the entrants.

But Guyana Star Dweej falls short when it comes to racing performances. It took him nine tries to break his maiden and most recently, he was demolished by Unstoppable U in an allowance optional claiming in his first effort against winners.

The colt has been turning in simple half-mile works at Belmont, none of which have been very impressive. In fact, he has been travelling to the wire more slowly than he begins the works, as he does not seem to be able to settle.

I do not expect for Guyana Star Dweej to perform very well in the Belmont.

#9. Paynter: This stunning colt can certainly at least cover ten furlongs. His sire is Awesome Again, winner of the 1998 Breeders’ Cup Classic (GI). Awesome Again has sired multiple grade one winners at ten furlongs, including Awesome Gem, Game on Dude, Ghostzapper, and Ginger Punch. Notably, Paynter is out of a full sister to two-time Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Tiznow and is bred on a very similar cross to Ghostzapper.

I have followed Paynter since his debut, which was an easy win in a five and one-half-furlong maiden special weight at Santa Anita in February. Following a troubled fourth behind I’ll Have Another in the nine-furlong Santa Anita Derby (GI), Paynter ran a very good second to Hierro in the one-mile Derby Trial Stakes (GIII) over a sloppy track at Churchill Downs. On Preakness day, the brilliant colt trounced an allowance field going a mile and one-sixteenth at Pimlico.

Seeking revenge for stablemate Bodemeister, Paynter has had two impressive works – both of which were bullets – at Belmont. The first was an efficient, brisk five furlongs in 59.26 seconds over the training track, which was the fastest of forty-one works covering the same conditions. His final work was a seven-furlong work in a notable time of 1:25 flat – a stamina-building work that I find very advantageous.

Though Paynter has been asked of a lot in his brief career, I have always felt he is a brilliant colt. But contesting in the Belmont Stakes is a huge step up for him, not only in class but of course in terms of distance and the effect it could have on him as well.

#10. Optimizer: This colt certainly is bred for the Belmont. His sire, English Channel, was victorious five times at races that spanned a distance of eleven furlongs or longer. The dam of Optimizer, Indy Pick, is sired by none other than the great A.P. Indy, who won the 1992 Belmont and sired the 2007 winner of final leg of the Triple Crown, Rags to Riches. Indy Pick has also produced Humdinger, a black-type-placed winning steeplechaser whose longest winning distance was an incredible three and one-eighth miles. Optimizer is bred to run all day.

Optimizer, however, has not won since his debut and has not won on dirt – a situation that is certainly to his disadvantage at Belmont, a very demanding dirt track. Optimizer has never fared very well against the best of the best, finishing eighth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI), eleventh in the Kentucky Derby, and sixth in the Preakness. His rally in the Preakness was decent, but nothing spectacular.

Optimizer has been posting four- and five-furlong works at Churchill Downs in preparation for the Belmont. His trainer, a four-time Belmont winner, certainly knows how to prepare a horse for the final leg of the Triple Crown, though these works are not very stamina-building.

If anything leads Optimizer to a race in the Belmont that eclipses the ones he has run recently, it will be his pedigree. Should only one horse handle the Belmont distance, it would be Optimizer. However, I do not believe he is as talented as several others in the field.

#11. I’ll Have Another: All eyes will be on him come Saturday, so while butterflies will run rampant in the stomachs of racing fans throughout the nation, it may be reassuring to many fans that I’ll Have Another is about as bred for the Belmont as an American horse can be in this day and age. His sire, Flower Alley, won the ten-furlong Travers Stakes (GI) and finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (GI) at the same distance. The sire of Flower Alley, Distorted Humor, is as close to as stamina-influencing as sires come in the United States nowadays. Distorted Humor has sired the Belmont- and Breeders’ Cup Classic-winning Drosselmeyer and the Kentucky Derby- and Preakness-winning Funny Cide. I’ll Have Another’s broodmare sire, Arch, is the sire of Breeders’ Cup Classic-winning Blame and captured the Super Derby (GI) when it was contested at ten furlongs. I’ll Have Another is also a member of the same stamina-filled female family as the most recent Triple Crown winner Affirmed – female family twenty-three.

Undefeated this year, I’ll Have Another has displayed brilliance, confidence, and determination in his Derby and Preakness wins. Trainer Doug O’Neill made the controversial decision to just gallop his famous horse up to the Belmont, but considering this horse gallops so vigorously, he may as well be working every day. Yes, he very well could be quite fresh and yes, Alysheba lost after not putting a final work in before the Belmont, but I’ll Have Another gets absolutely plenty out of his routine gallops. In fact, some of his split times are even quicker than fractions posted in works and the gallops he has been executing could be very stamina-building.

History is against I’ll Have Another to win the Belmont, but I feel he has a very good chance to win the race should he settle and receive a great ride from Mario Gutierrez yet again. He is a very versatile, tactical horse with a post that suits him very well, and he has proven to be the top of this class so far. A win by him would be tremendous for racing and certainly not a surprise to me, though he has a tall task ahead of him. For more on I’ll Have Another, please click here.

#12. My Adonis: By Breeders’ Cup Classic (GI)- and Dubai World Cup (GI)-winning Pleasantly Perfect and out of a mare by Elusive Quality, who is the sire of the Derby- and Preakness Stakes (GI)-winning Smarty Jones, My Adonis appears to have the pedigree to go at least ten furlongs. However, Elusive Quality is primarily successful with milers and sprinters and as a broodmare sire, his mares’ offspring have won at an average winning distance of just over six furlongs.

My Adonis is winless this year and in graded stakes races. Following good in-the-money performances in the Holy Bull Stakes (GIII) and the Gotham Stakes (GIII), My Adonis was the last horse to cross the wire in the Wood Memorial Stakes (GI). He has since finished third of five in the mile and one-sixteenth Canonero II Stakes at Pimlico.

The colt has had only one work since his performance in the Canonero II Stakes, going five furlongs in 59.80 at Monmouth.

Considering the choice to run My Adonis in the Belmont was a last minute decision, he has an unspectacular racing record, and a questionable pedigree, I do not foresee My Adonis being very competitive in the Belmont.

My top pick for the Belmont is, yes, I’ll Have Another. I believe the horses that pose the biggest threats to be the next “Triple Crown Spoiler” are Union Rags, Dullahan, Street Life, and perhaps Paynter. But what horse racing needs is a win by I’ll Have Another – the first Triple Crown triumph since 1978. What the plethora of people that will be tuning into the Belmont that never watch horse racing want to see is a win by I'll Have Another. And frankly, I’ll Have Another has a good shot at it.

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Reflections on the 2012 Kentucky Derby

Featuring one of the best fields in years, the 138th Kentucky Derby (GI) was full of top-class racehorses. Seven of the horses ranked in my Derby Top Ten finished in the top half of the twenty-horse field, further stamping those entered in the race as a solid field. When it came down to it, though, it was I’ll Have Another that stood beneath the Twin Spires with a garland of red roses draped over his withers.

I’ll Have Another and several other Derby contenders will continue on to the second leg of the Triple Crown, the Preakness Stakes (GI) at Pimlico Racecourse. Other Derby competitors are being pointed toward the twelve-furlong Belmont Stakes (GI) in New York. Of course, the Kentucky Derby victor will look to extend his winning streak to continue his Triple Crown journey with hopes of becoming the first winner of the elusive title in over thirty years. However, he will have to face several of the very gifted horses he competed against in the Derby.

A look at the honorable top eight finishers of the Kentucky Derby:

First – I’ll Have Another: The chestnut colt broke extremely well from gate nineteen before young rider Mario Gutierrez guided him closer to the inside, finding a clear path as he allowed I’ll Have Another to gallop approximately three-wide around the clubhouse turn. His beautiful, lengthy stride carried him into seventh around the first curve before the colt found himself moving forward along the backstretch, relaxing perfectly in between horses with plenty of room to run as Bodemeister set blistering fractions. Traveling a bit wide around the final turn, I’ll Have Another loomed large while Bodemeister opened up on the field. Whereas the tough Bodemeister was gradually weakening, I’ll Have Another was growing stronger. Impressively, I’ll Have Another powered past Bodemeister to take the Derby by 1 ½ lengths. Notably, he was never passed in the gallop out.

I’ll Have Another had a perfect trip and the blazing pace allowed him to move in quickly on the leaders. Perhaps the race set up for him, but it must be noted that, in his past two races, he was able to close into steady, much slower fractions and still pull off a victory.

As for I’ll Have Another’s chances at the Triple Crown, he will have difficulty against the brilliant three-year-olds in this group, including several of the honorable finishers in the Derby. He’ll likely also face talented, fresher horses that did not contest in the Kentucky Derby. However, he was very impressive in his Run for the Roses victory and is a relatively fresh horse himself.

In addition, I’ll Have Another has breeding worthy of Triple Crown distances. Obviously, he is capable of getting ten furlongs, but he should also be able to go even farther. His sire is Flower Alley, a Travers Stakes (GI, 10F) winner, and his dam is a daughter of Arch, who is also the sire of the Breeders’ Cup Classic (GI, 10F)-winning Blame. Also, I’ll Have Another possesses beautiful movement that will carry him over a route of ground, as he covers much ground with his long, effortless strides. It is also very encouraging that he is headed to Pimlico early, which means he will have time to adapt to the Baltimore track.

Second – Bodemeister: Sent off as the favorite, Bodemeister broke like a rocket and went straight to the lead, finding a position along the rail as the horses rounded the initial curve. On the backstretch, Mike Smith guided the colt a few paths off the rail, allowing him to take a clear lead over the sprinter Trinniberg. Bodemeister set a blazing first quarter of 22.32 seconds, then a half-mile in a breathtaking 45.39, a stunning six furlongs in 1:09.80, and a mile in 1:35.19 – ridiculous times for a mile and one-quarter. The fractions he set were the fifth fastest in the one hundred thirty-eight editions of the Kentucky Derby. Around the far turn, the race appeared to be his despite the blistering fractions. As the horses entered the homestretch, Bodemeister was ahead of the rest of the field by several lengths. However, the toll of his scorching fractions caught up with him and he was passed by I’ll Have Another in the final strides. Nonetheless, Bodemeister turned in an absolutely monstrous performance, proving that he is a tremendously brilliant colt. Some have speculated that, if Trinniberg had not been entered in the Derby, perhaps the colt would have won. Yet he was never really pressured by Trinniberg much. But he should receive much praise for his spectacular run in the Derby, which he has.

Should he run in the Preakness, Bodemeister could very well be favored. He has never finished worse than second and in his past two starts, he has turned in very freakish performances, including a 9 ½-length victory in the Arkansas Derby (GI). However, the colt has had three very tough races in just eight weeks. He only had three weeks after his dominant Arkansas Derby (GI) victory and, of course, ran the race of his life in the Kentucky Derby (GI). A start in the Preakness Stakes (GI) just two weeks after his amazing performance would surely be grueling, especially since the colt only began his racing career in January. However, he is certainly one of the most gifted three-year-old colts in the group and ran an absolutely incredible race in the Derby. He has never run a bad race in his life and it is unlikely that he will.

Bodemeister also possesses a pedigree that will support him in Triple Crown races. Sired by the Belmont Stakes (GI, 12F)-winning son of Kentucky Derby (GI) and Breeders’ Cup Classic (GI) winner Unbridled, Empire Maker, and out of a graded stakes-winning Storm Cat mare, Bodemeister should continue to love long distances. He’ll need to learn to settle a bit better, but this colt is absolutely brilliant and we could be in store for great things from him in the near future.

Third – Dullahan: At the start, Dullahan came over on second-choice Union Rags, finding his groove in mid-pack as Kent Desormeaux let the colt run in the middle of the pack, several lengths off the lead as the field rounded the first turn. He had plenty of room in front of him as the twenty horses continued down the backstretch and as the field entered the turn, Desormeaux began to ask him for more. He was forced to swing very wide around the turn and loomed large on the outside as the horses neared the wire. He covered much ground and got caught in a photo finish with Bodemeister at the wire, finishing third.

Dullahan
Photo: Terri Cage

Dullahan is still winless on dirt, but he has performed very well on it. Perhaps he had too much ground to make up, but he simply did not have a big enough kick to get the job done. Nevertheless, he ran a notable race and will be a serious sophomore contender throughout the year.

As a half-brother to Mine That Bird, Dullahan is clearly bred for classic distances. His sire, Even the Score, though not as stamina-influencing as Mine That Bird’s sire, has sired the ten-furlong grade one winner Take the Points. Furthermore, Dullahan showed in the Derby that he could have kept going.

Fourth – Went the Day Well: Running for the same connections as Animal Kingdom, winner of the 2011 Kentucky Derby, Went the Day Well finished better than perhaps any other horse in the 2012 Run for the Roses. Leaving the gate from post thirteen, Went the Day Well exited the starting gate decently, finding a position near the back of the pack as the horses raced through the first turn, on which he was forced to check slightly.  Galloping far off the leaders down the homestretch, Went the Day Well found room to rally beneath John Velazquez around the far turn and was guided to the outside before closing rapidly in the homestretch. With ground-eating strides, he grew closer to the leaders but just could not get there in time. He had a tremendous gallop out, catching up to I’ll Have Another but never passing him.

On a track that was mostly favoring speed, Went the Day Well made a tremendous run. Of course, the quick pace may have set him up for a spectacular rally, but the bias of the track played against him. Despite that, Went the Day Well closed terrifically, making up much ground. I timed him in 25 seconds flat for his final quarter mile, as compared to I’ll Have Another 25.7-second final quarter.

On a road of improvement, Went the Day Well is by Kentucky Derby runner-up and Preakness third-place finisher, who sired this year’s winner of the Kentucky Oaks, Believe You Can, as well as the 2008 victor of the Lilies for the Fillies, Proud Spell. As a grandson of the two-time ten-furlong Breeders’ Cup Classic-winning Tiznow, a direct descendant of both a daughter of the stamina-influencing Majestic Light and an Irish Oaks winner, Went the Day Well is bred for routing. Moreover, his incredible rally in the Derby proved that he will relish a route of ground.

Fifth – Creative Cause: Following a good break from the eighth slot, Creative Cause found a good position in mid-pack. Around the clubhouse turn, Creative Cause ran in the three-path. He raced widest of all down the backstretch, but he had dead aim on the leaders. He began to make up ground as the field entered the far turn, continuing to race wide as he gained ground on the leaders. The closest he ever came to the lead was third and flattened out in late stretch, but was beaten just three lengths.

Creative Cause had an eventful week leading up to the Derby, beginning with his loss of a shoe when he arrived at Churchill Downs. He also missed a day of training, but despite these troubles, the gray colt finished a good fifth. He didn’t show his usual kick, but he did, as usual, run well.

As a result of the mating between Giant’s Causeway and a grade one-winning daughter of Skywalker, Creative Cause is bred for distance. Though he did not show fatigue in the stretch of the Derby, he didn’t have much of a kick in the final furlong. He is still among the top horses in this crop, however, and could be a force in the three-year-old ranks.

Sixth – Liasion: Breaking on the very outside, Martin Garcia guided Liaison closer to the rail in the early stages, but was still forced among the widest of all around the clubhouse turn. He relaxed mid-pack, staying on the outside down the backstretch. Garcia began urging him strongly as the field entered the far turn and rather than dropping back like his odds suggested he would, the son of Indian Charlie stayed in position and held off Union Rags’ rally to finish seventh.

Liaison ran a rather flat race, but he certainly ran better than his odds implied he would. Though his sire, Indian Charlie, does not give him many stamina implications, his damsire, the Belmont Stakes-winning Victory Gallop, and the sire of his second dam, A.P. Indy, do. This is a talented colt, but he needs to regain his confidence.

Seventh – Union Rags: I still feel as if Union Rags is amongst the most brilliant of this crop of three-year-olds. Unfortunately, however, he has been plagued with bad luck. His post position and break from the gate was his undoing in the Derby. Springing from the fourth gate, Union Rags was squeezed between Take Charge Indy and Dullahan at the break. It was all downhill from there. He was forced to check immediately and rather than finding what was expected to be a stalking position, Union Rags was just ahead of two other horses going into the first turn. He never seemed to find his momentum down the backstretch, but as the field entered the far turn, he seemed to be making a move. However, a fading Daddy Long Legs forced Julien Leparoux to check him and suddenly swing him off the rail. He lost serious momentum in that incident, but the blaze-faced colt accelerated anyways and as the field entered the stretch, his long strides traveled over the track impressively, allowing him to cover much ground and just miss finishing sixth. I clocked his final quarter in 25.3 seconds, which means he was among the fastest finishers and completed the last quarter more quickly than the winner.

Union Rags ran extremely well despite the large amount of trouble he encountered. Interestingly, his two losses prior to this race also came with trouble. He seems to be the type of horse who needs a perfect trip in order to win, as he does not have immediate acceleration and cannot have his momentum impeded. However, Union Rags did overcome issues in the Champagne Stakes (GI) at Belmont Park as a juvenile and still prevailed.

Many may doubt his pedigree as far as distance is concerned, but as a grandson of Gone West, his damsire is the sire of the grade one-winning distance horses Came Home, Commendable, Johar, and Marsh Side. Besides, he was not going in the wrong direction at the end of the Derby; he was closing in on the leaders, though he could not get there in time. But we have not seen all of Union Rags. Just because his finish in the Derby was disappointing does not mean this colt is not among those at the pinnacle of this group of three-year-olds.

Eighth – Rousing Sermon: After a clean break from the seventh gate, Rousing Sermon found a position near the back of the pack as the twenty-horse field rounded the first turn. He swung to the outside, galloping two-wide down the backstretch as he made up ground as the horses grew closer to entering the final turn. With a move along the rail, Rousing Sermon faced a wall of horses on the curve, but was able to get around them and final a position on the rail. He made a good rally to finish eighth and gallop out well, definitely outrunning his odds and pedigree.

Rousing Sermon is sired by a sprinting son of Pulpit and out of a mare who never won farther than a mile and one-sixteenth. However, the blazing pace set him up well, allowing him to close well for an eighth-place finish. The colt impressed me in his final work for the Derby and I feel as if he is one of most underrated colts in this crop.

Saturday’s Kentucky Derby firmly endorsed how strong this crop of three-year-olds is. I’ll Have Another has a tough task ahead of him as the final two legs of the Triple Crown loom, but he is clearly talented and a plethora of racing fans will surely cheer him on with hopes of witnessing the first victor of the Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978. The other three-year-olds, however, are out for revenge and with their competitiveness and talent, I’ll Have Another has his hands full. This strong crop of three-year-olds should make for an exciting Triple Crown and three-year-old season. Buckle up and enjoy the ride!

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I'll Have Another Gallops to Kentucky Derby Victory

Twenty colts paraded before the largest crowd to ever gather beneath the famous Twin Spires of Churchill Downs as the chords of “My Old Kentucky Home” struck up, sending chills down the spines of racing enthusiasts as emotions ran wild. The jockeys aboard the talented Thoroughbreds focused on the powerful creatures beneath them and the race they were about to contest in together as watchful trainers and owners focused on their steeds. As millions tuned into their televisions, 165,307 people gathered at the illustrious Louisville track as the graceful frames of the three-year-old Thoroughbreds glided into the starting gate, their hooves resting upon the Downs’ main track as their young eyes gazed across the expanse of dirt in front of them.

The twenty horses that were lined up at the top of the stretch formed one of the toughest fields seen in the past several installments of the race, and the record crowd cheered them on deafeningly, their stomachs churning in anticipation for the commencement of the greatest horse race on the planet. Suddenly, the gates flew open and onto the track sprang twenty talented, beautifully bred, and imposing Thoroughbreds as the announcer cried, “And they’re off in the Kentucky Derby!”

The night before, an inch of rain had fallen upon Churchill Downs. However, the dirt track was left fast – very fast, in fact. Earlier in the day, a track record had been set and, in two races, the winners had completed final times that were 1.13 seconds and .56 seconds off the track record. This proved true when Bodemeister set the fifth fastest fractions ever in the Kentucky Derby.

I’ll Have Another broke extremely well from post nineteen, gliding over closer to the rail to run three-wide around the first turn. As Bodemeister set blistering fractions on the front end, I’ll Have Another settled beautifully in sixth, moving up through the center of the track down the backstretch without any asking. Around the far turn, I’ll Have Another was poised to fly on the outside. While Bodemeister drew away from the field on the rail, I’ll Have Another found his best stride and kicked in down the stretch, powering past Bodemeister to capture the race by 1 ½ lengths.

Meanwhile, the second-favorite, Union Rags, was squeezed at the start and was near the rear of the field as the horses charged into the first turn. He encountered trouble on the far turn as well, forcing Julien Leparoux to check. By then, the son of Dixie Union had too much to do and too much ground to make up. He closed well, but could finish no better than seventh.

Though some were surprised by I’ll Have Another’s victory in the Run for the Roses, I was not astonished in the least. The colt had even been ranked first on my Derby Top Ten at one point and been on that list ever since his win in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (GII) in February. In fact, he was among my top four picks in the Derby.

I’ll Have Another provided his connections with their first Kentucky Derby triumph. Owner J. Paul Reddam was presented with the Kentucky Derby trophy and lifted it victoriously into the air while twenty-five-year-old Mario Gutierrez held the garland of roses with trainer of Doug O’Neill, having won just his second grade one race (his first came with I’ll Have Another in the Santa Anita Derby) and his Kentucky Derby debut. O’Neill, a leading trainer in Southern California, was also clearly thrilled with his Derby victory, which was, of course, his first as well.

Notably, I’ll Have Another was ponied to the gate by Lava Man, the richest claimed horse in history who seven grade ones and was the only horse ever to win to capture grade ones on dirt, turf, and synthetic.

I’ll Have Another will now be pointed towards the Preakness Stakes (GI) at Pimlico Racecourse, a race in which the colt will hope to continue his Triple Crown journey. However, he is likely to face a tough field, just like he did in the Derby. There’s Bodemeister – who ran a spectacular race in finishing second, Dullahan – who closed well to finish third, Went the Day Well – who rallied impressively to take fourth, and Union Rags – who, once clear, made a game rally in the Derby. It will not be an easy task, but I’ll Have Another, having now won three races in a row, will be full of confidence.

I have great respect for I’ll Have Another. The stunning chestnut son of the Travers Stakes (GI)-winning Flower Alley won a Kentucky Derby against one of the most competitive fields we’ve seen in years. His rally down the stretch was incredibly impressive and, after all, he is your one and only one hundred thirty-eighth Kentucky Derby winner. Congratulations to I’ll Have Another and his connections!

Since I’ll Have Another was one of my featured “Derby Hopefuls,” you can read more about him here.

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2012 Kentucky Derby Field Analysis

The Kentucky Derby is to horse racing fans as Christmas morning is to young children. Enthusiasts of the sport of kings await the race for months and once it finally comes, they relish it like a child enjoys his or her new gifts. Dubbed the Run for the Roses for the garland that is presented to the winner of the most prestigious race in the world, the Kentucky Derby is a race that makes legends and is an event that is sure to be thrilling. This year’s running of the Kentucky Derby features a very competitive field that has the potential to make the one hundred thirty-eighth Derby one for the ages.

Listed below are all of the horses entered to run in the 2012 Kentucky Derby, along with descriptions of their pedigrees, racing records, final preparations, and my opinions of them. The colts are listed in post position order.

#1. Daddy Long Legs: By the grade one winner at nine furlongs, Scat Daddy, and out of a stakes-winning mare who was never victorious beyond one mile, Daddy Long Legs appears to have distance limitations. Even his damsire, the talented sprinter Meadowlake, does not help Daddy Long Legs’ case. In addition, this Aidan O’Brien trainee is bred on the same Hennessy/Meadowlake cross as the grade one-winning sprinter Henny Hughes.

Daddy Long Legs
Photo by Mary Cage

After winning his debut as a juvenile in Ireland, Daddy Long Legs contested in the Champagne Stakes (GII) at Doncaster, finishing fourth. Following a win over eventual Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (GII) winner Wrote in the Royal Lodge Stakes (GII) at Newmarket, Daddy Long Legs vied for the title of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI) amidst most of the best two-year-olds in the world. However, he never made an impact at Churchill Downs and finished twelfth, beaten by approximately 19 ½ lengths while showing no affinity for the dirt surface of the Louisville oval. He has only made one start this year, winning the mile-and-three-sixteenths UAE Derby (GII) by 1 ¼ lengths, outrunning his pedigree.

Daddy Long Legs did not ship to Churchill until Tuesday, which I find extremely discouraging. The trip from Ireland to Kentucky is surely a very taxing trek for a young Thoroughbred. In addition, he had barely any time to train over a surface that he has not appeared to like. Had he had a chance to train over the Churchill Downs surface more, perhaps he would enjoy racing over it better. But because he made the trip so close to the race, Daddy Long Legs faces a huge disadvantage.

With the worst post in the field, breeding more suitable for a miler, an obvious dislike of a track that he has had a scarce amount of conditioning over, and a grueling trip just days before the race, Daddy Long Legs has too much going against him to run very well in the Derby.

#2. Optimizer: This D. Wayne Lukas trainee is sure to relish the ten-furlong distance of the Kentucky Derby. His sire, English Channel, won five grade ones at eleven furlongs or longer and his dam, Indy Pick, is a daughter of the Belmont Stakes (GI, 12F)- and Breeders’ Cup Classic (GI, 10F)-winning A.P. Indy.

Optimizer
Photo by Mary Cage

Optimizer debuted on the grass, winning a maiden special weight at Saratoga prior to running a game second in the With Anticipation Stakes (GII) over the same course. Following a good third behind Dullahan in the Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity (GI) over Keeneland’s synthetic surface, Optimizer made his dirt debut in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI), running an unspectacular eighth. His final start as a juvenile - which was also his second start at Churchill Downs - was a decent fourth-place finish in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (GII) behind Gemologist. After two disappointing finishes in the Smarty Jones Stakes and Risen Star Stakes (GII), Optimizer made a dazzling move to finish second in the Rebel Stakes (GII) at Oaklawn Park. However, he returned to his dissatisfactory ways in finishing ninth in the Arkansas Derby (GI).

The colt has worked twice at Churchill in preparation for the Kentucky Derby, his most recent work a respectable five furlongs in 1:00.40.

Optimizer has shown ability to run a good race, but I do not foresee him running well in the Derby, especially with his far inside post. He has not won since breaking his maiden and has never won on the dirt. The hot pace will help set him up for a good run, but he appears to have too tall of a task in the Derby.

#3. Take Charge Indy: He has the most accomplished parents of any horse in this field, as far as racetrack performances are concerned. His dam is the multiple grade one-winning daughter of Dehere, Take Charge Lady. His sire is A.P. Indy, both a champion on the track and in the breeding shed. Though Take Charge Lady never won beyond nine furlongs, she was a multiple grade one winner at that distance. A.P. Indy, however was a grade one winner at ten and twelve furlongs and is the sire of horses of the same capabilities.

Take Charge Indy
Photo: Terri Cage

Take Charge Indy was forwardly placed in his debut, which he won over Arlington Park’s all-weather track by 6 ½ lengths. Following a game runner-up finish in the Arlington-Washington Futurity (GIII) in which he closed from off the pace, Take Charge Indy finished fourth and fifth in the Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity (GI) at Keeneland and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI) at Churchill, respectively. In both races, he sat off the leaders. In his first start as a sophomore, Take Charge Indy pressed the pace in an allowance optional claiming at Gulfstream Park before finishing second to El Padrino. His big break came in the Florida Derby (GI), in which he set a solid pace before winning by a length.

Though it’s encouraging that Take Charge Indy has performed decently at Churchill Downs, I would have preferred for him to make his final preparations below the Twin Spires rather than at Palm Meadows Training Center in Florida. His final work was a bullet 1:00.47 five-furlong move at the aforementioned training center, which is a good drill, but one I’d rather him have made at Churchill Downs.

Despite the fact that some seem to be worried about his front-running racing style, Take Charge Indy has performed well off the pace and should be able to do that again in the Derby. However, he will need to use his speed to gun out of the gate. His pedigree obviously supports him, but he will need to be on the very top of his game to run a stupendous race in the Run for the Roses. For more on why Take Charge Indy is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.

#4. Union Rags: With Dixie Union, a grade one winner at nine furlongs sired by a son of 1964 Kentucky Derby winner Northern Dancer, as his sire, Union Rags may appear to not have quite enough stamina for the Derby. However, his dam, though she never won beyond six furlongs in three starts, is a daughter of Gone West – who is also the damsire Frost Giant, a grade one winner at ten furlongs, and the sire of several distance horses, including Came Home, Commendable, Johar, and Marsh Side – and the graded stakes-winning daughter of Nijinsky II at eleven furlongs, Terpsichorist.

Union Rags
Photo by Mary Cage

Union Rags has shown the most brilliance of any of these colts throughout the course of his career. He debuted at Delaware Park, rallying to score by 1 ¾ lengths. He then pressed the pace in the Saratoga Special Stakes (GII) before sweeping to an effortless 7 ¼-length victory despite drifting out in the stretch. In the esteemed one-mile Champagne Stakes (GI) at Belmont, Union Rags came from off the pace to capture the race by 5 ¼ lengths. The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI) seemed like his for the taking, but he missed by a head after veering outward in the stretch despite making a breathtaking run. His three-year-old debut could not have been any more impressive; Union Rags rallied from off the leaders to take the Fountain of Youth Stakes (GII) by four lengths. However, in his final prep race for the Kentucky Derby, Union Rags encountered a bit of a troubled trip in the Florida Derby (GI) and despite making a respectable move in late stretch, the talented colt finished third.

Union Rags has already run a very remarkable race at Churchill Downs and has trained over the track before and fortunately, he had his final work for the Kentucky Derby beneath the Twin Spires. That work was also one of the very most impressive of all final moves over the track. He completed five furlongs in 59.80, commandingly and efficiently breezing over the track. He seemed to relish the going and looked well within himself as he completed the notable drill, displaying his beautiful stride.

This Michael Matz trainee has the potential to a great horse. Having seen him in person at the Breeders’ Cup, I feel that he is tremendously special and a truly incredible athlete. The colt is indisputably brilliant and clearly loves the track at Churchill Downs. With his imposing training moves, Union Rags seems poised to run a magnificent race. I would have liked to see him draw a post farther to the outside, but he has shown tactical speed before and should be able to get away from the gate well to find a good position. After all, it was just two years ago that Super Saver won from the same post. For these reasons and his encouraging pedigree, Union Rags is my top selection for the Kentucky Derby. For more on why Union Rags is a leading Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.

#5. Dullahan: As a half-brother to 2009 Kentucky Derby victor Mine That Bird, Dullahan may as well be authorized for the ten-furlong distance of the Run for the Roses. Though his sire, Even the Score, is not as stamina-influencing as the sire of Mine That Bird, Even the Score has still sired progeny capable of winning at ten furlongs.

Dullahan
Photo: Terri Cage

Dullahan has made three starts at Churchill, none of which resulted in trips to the winner’s circle. He made his first two starts beneath the Twin Spires, finishing a distant third and fifth, respectively, in tough maiden special weights. Following a close second-place finish in his turf debut at Saratoga, Dullahan ran a game third in a turf graded stakes at the same historic New York oval. Despite having never won, Dullahan started in the Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity (GI) over Keeneland’s synthetic surface, rallying to take the race by ¾ of a length. After a decent fourth-place rally in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI) over the Churchill dirt, Dullahan made his sophomore in the Palm Beach Stakes (GIII) over Gulfstream Park’s turf, coming from off the pace to finish second. He then returned to Keeneland to take yet another prestigious race over the Lexington track’s synthetic, sweeping to victory in the Blue Grass Stakes (GI).

It was important that Dullahan received extensive training time at Churchill Downs prior to the Kentucky Derby, as he needed to grow adapted to dirt. Though he knows the track well, he does not appear to enjoy traveling over it as much as he relishes the turf and synthetic. His final work came on Saturday in a 1:01.20 five-furlong work at Churchill, in which he seemed to be slightly struggling over the surface.

Dullahan is obviously bred for the Derby and is among the most talented Derby entrants, but he has never come within six lengths of winning on dirt. He will have to show a new affinity for the surface in order to be successful. As a closer, post five should benefit him and was a draw his connections were openly very pleased with. For more on why Dullahan is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.

#6. Bodemeister: Sired by the Belmont Stakes (GI, 12F)-winning Empire Maker and out of a Storm Cat daughter whose damsire is A.P. Indy, Bodemeister is clearly bred for long distances.

Bodemeister never raced as a juvenile and broke his maiden in his second start, coasting to a 9 ¼-length victory. With that win, he immediately landed on my radar. Following a game runner-up finish behind Creative Cause in the San Felipe Stakes (GII) at Santa Anita, Bodemeister crushed the field in the Arkansas Derby (GI) by 9 ½ lengths while setting the pace.

Trainer Bob Baffert allowed Bodemeister to adapt to Churchill Downs, giving the colt two sharp five-furlong works over the Louisville track. His final preparation, a 59.60 drill over a muddy track, was a work of art, displaying his beautiful action as he coasted over the track.

Bodemeister will need to settle in the Derby to avoid a deadly speed duel, and with post six, he has several speed horses drawn outside of him, which could put him in trouble. But should he rate under Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith and get a good trip, we could be in for a treat, as this is a very brilliant colt. Bodemeister is my second choice in the Run for the Roses. For more on why Bodemeister is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.

#7. Rousing Sermon: By a sprinting son of Pulpit and out of an Awesome Again mare who never won beyond a mile and one-sixteenth, Rousing Sermon’s sire and dam do not give him the stamina you would think both his grandsires, Pulpit and Awesome, would give him. His dam is a half-sister to a millionaire, but that horse was never victorious beyond seven and one-half furlongs. Don’t let the names A.P. Indy, Awesome Again, Alydar, and Wajima deceive you; the cross on which Rousing Sermon is bred on yields an average winning distance of six furlongs.

After coming from off the pace to win a maiden at Hollywood Park, Rousing Sermon turned in two closing third-place finishes in California-bred stakes races over Del Mar’s synthetic. After rallying off the leaders to take a state-bred stakes in his dirt debut at Santa Anita, Rousing Sermon closed to finish second to Liaison in two black-type races over Hollywood’s cushion track, including the CashCall Futurity (GI). Continuing his closing style into 2012, he finished third in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (GII) prior to completing a fifth-place performance in the San Felipe Stakes (GII) and a third-place result in a weak Louisiana Derby (GII).

Rousing Sermon made most of his preparations for the Derby at Hollywood Park, though he turned in his final work at Churchill Downs – performing a breeze later than any other Derby contender did. He put in his final drill on Tuesday, going five furlongs in 1:00.40 to record the second-fastest work of eighteen. I was incredibly impressed with how he looked and how he covered the ground.

Though Rousing Sermon is one of the most physically impressive horses in the field, I do not expect for him to win the Derby. However, his late-running style against the hot pace that is likely to be set will benefit him and could even provide him with a better performance than solely his bloodlines would.

#8. Creative Cause: Sired by Giant’s Causeway and out of a grade one winner at nine furlongs, this gray colt will likely love the route of ground offered to him in the Derby. Female family one has produced the second-most amount of Derby victors as far as female families is concerned, and Creative Cause is a member of that female family.

Creative Cause
Photo: Terri Cage

An accomplished juvenile, Creative Cause won his first two starts, including an effortless Best Pal Stakes (GII). Following a rough runner-up finish in the Del Mar Futurity (GI), Creative Cause dominantly captured the Norfolk Stakes (GI) at Santa Anita. He ended his juvenile career with a good third-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI) behind Hansen and Union Rags. Going seven furlongs in his first start as a three-year-old, Creative Cause ended up third in the San Vicente Stakes (GII). He then captured the San Felipe Stakes (GII) over Bodemeister prior to finishing a nose behind I’ll Have Another in the nine-furlong Santa Anita Derby (GI).

Though I would have preferred for him to have more training time at Churchill Downs, it is reassuring that he has already performed well below the Twin Spires. Fortunately, his final work came at the Lousville track, in which he worked a good half-mile in 47.80.

Creative Cause is certainly one of the most accomplished, consistent horses entered in this year’s Run for the Roses. He is a horse you can rely on, as well as one that will relish the ten-furlong Derby distance. He will be a major threat Saturday evening and has a good position in post eight. For more on why Creative Cause is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.

#9. Trinniberg: By a stallion who never won beyond a mile and a mare who was never capable of winning at a distance longer than six furlongs, Trinniberg will be left exhausted by the end of the Derby. Any stamina influences in his pedigree, such as Storm Cat and Halo, are at least four generations back and are only part of a select few.

Trinniberg
Photo: Terri Cage

Trinniberg dominantly won his debut at Calder Racecourse, completing five furlongs in a final time of 59.24. Following a fifth-place finish behind Union Rags in the six and one-half-furlong Saratoga Special Stakes (GII), Trinniberg outran his 68-1 odds to finish a close second in the seven-furlong Hopeful Stakes (GI). Both of these races came over an off track at Saratoga. Trinniberg ran another close second next out, this time in the six-furlong Nashua Stakes (GII) at Belmont. In the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint at Churchill Downs, Trinniberg attempted to set the pace before faltering to finish seventh of nine. In his sophomore debut, the son of Teuflesberg set a blistering pace in the seven-furlong Swale Stakes (GIII) before drawing off to a six-length victory. His three-length victory in the seven-furlong Bay Shore Stakes (GIII), which was his final race before the Derby, also was won with a front-running style. 

Trinniberg has been galloping at Churchill Downs, but his final work came at his home track Calder, at which he posted an unglamorous 1:15.40 six-furlong breeze. He has been very physically imposing in his gallops at Churchill, but his immense muscling implies that he would better enjoy sprinting distances.

Trinniberg is a gifted colt, but he will not be effective at ten furlongs. A one-turn race would be a much better choice for him.

#10. Daddy Nose Best: A son of the multiple stakes winner at nine furlongs, Scat Daddy, and a mare by the Kentucky Derby- and Belmont Stakes (GI, 12F)-winning Thunder Gulch, Daddy Nose Best’s pedigree gives the impression that he will relish the ten-furlong expanse of the Run for the Roses. He also receives stamina influence from his second dam, a graded stakes winner at a mile and one-sixteenth who is a daughter of the Preakness Stakes (GI, 9.5)-winning Pine Bluff. It could also be beneficial that he has several crosses of Mr. Prospector, Northern Dancer, and Storm Bird.

Daddy Nose Best
Photo: Terri Cage

Though he has not won over its dirt oval, Daddy Nose Best has a great amount of experience at Churchill Downs. His first two starts came there and though they were both losses, he did turn in a good runner-up finish ahead of Dullahan below the Twin Spires in his first race. Following a good turf debut that resulted in a second-place finish at Saratoga, Daddy Nose Best broke his maiden in a race of similar conditions. He turned in a good third-place performance in the Summer Stakes (GIII) prior to finishing sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (GII) at Churchill Downs. Three weeks later, he scored in an allowance over the same grass course. On New Year’s Eve, he finished fifth in the Eddie Logan Stakes at Santa Anita on the turf before gamely winning the El Camino Real Derby (GIII) at nine furlongs on the synthetic by a nose. In his final prep race for the Kentucky Derby, he rallied to take the Sunland Derby (GIII) by ¾ of a length in his first dirt victory.

Daddy Nose Best has not only raced more at Churchill Downs than any other Kentucky Derby contender, but he has also had more works over the Louisville track in preparation for the Run for the Roses. Following two five-furlong breezes and one six-furlong work over the Churchill Downs dirt, Daddy Nose Best covered an effortless half-mile in 49.40 for his final Derby work. He has traveled beautifully over the main track at Churchill Downs.

Daddy Nose Best has the most racing experience of any of these horses, as well as the most experience at Churchill Downs. Though he has not won on the main track there, he has been training wonderfully over it and looks better than ever. This colt is getting better and better and looks absolutely tremendous. A great race by him in the Kentucky Derby would be no surprise to me, especially with his good draw.

#11. Alpha: By the classic-winning son of A.P. Indy, Bernardini, and out of the stakes-winning mare at eleven furlongs, Munnaya, Alpha’s damsire is the multiple group one winner at long distances, Ezzoud. This colt is bred through-and-through for stamina, so surely he will not have an issue with the distance of the Kentucky Derby.

Alpha
Photo by Mary Cage

After impressively breaking his maiden at Saratoga, Alpha finished a good second behind Union Rags in the Champagne Stakes (GI). A chaotic, troublesome Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI) for Alpha in which he bled resulted in an eleventh-place finish. He rebounded as a three-year-old, winning an ungraded stakes and a grade three at Aqueduct before finishing a game second in the Wood Memorial Stakes (GI) to the undefeated Gemologist. His road to the Derby was a disordered one, spotted with indecisive moments and an infected laceration that briefly kept him out of training after the Wood.

I would have preferred for Alpha to train up to the Derby at Churchill Downs, but he made his final preparation over the Belmont Park training track, completing a sharp five-furlong drill in 59.54.

Despite his troublesome Derby trail, I am encouraged by Alpha’s stamina-based pedigree and racing record full of game performances. He will need to behave well in the gate, but should he live up to his bloodlines and the capability he has shown, Alpha should run a great race on Saturday, which is why he is part of my spectacular eight on my Derby Top Ten. Also, he has a good post in gate eleven. For more on why Alpha is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.

#12. Prospective: Malibu Moon, a son of the Belmont Stakes (GI, 12F)- and Breeders’ Cup Classic (GI, 10F)-winning A.P. Indy, has sired two graded stakes winners at ten furlongs. He is the sire of Prospective, who is out of Spirited Away, a stakes winner at a mile and one-sixteenth who is sired by the Breeders’ Cup Classic (GI, 10F)-winning Awesome Again. This pedigree hints that Prospective should be able to handle the ten-furlong distance of the Derby.

Following a rallying runner-up finish in a turf maiden special weight at Woodbine, Prospective broke his maiden over the track’s synthetic surface after pressing the pace. Like 2009 Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird, Prospective took the Grey Stakes (GIII) at Woodbine before running last in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI). Unlike Mine That Bird, however, his Breeders’ Cup start came at Churchill Downs. His sophomore debut came in the Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs, in which he rallied to score his first dirt victory. He then finished a good second in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (GIII) at the same track prior to winning the Tampa Bay Derby (GII). His final Derby prep resulted in a disappointing sixth-place finish over Keeneland’s Polytrack in the Blue Grass Stakes (GI).

Prospective has looked absolutely outstanding while training at Churchill Downs for the Kentucky Derby, displaying great muscularity and beautiful carriage of himself. He has the second-most amount of works over the Louisville track of Derby contenders, all of which were five-furlong drills. His final breeze resulted in a final time of 1:01.20.

If looks were the only things that mattered, Prospective would certainly be one of my top picks. However, he ran extremely poorly against many of these horses at Churchill Downs in November and he likely will not be able to defeat this time around, either, though he will probably run better than he did last fall.

#13. Went the Day Well: By Derby runner-up Proud Citizen and out of a Tiznow mare, Went the Day Well seems to have the pedigree to handle the Derby distance. He also descends from a series of Reine De Course mares, including an Irish Oaks winner. He will also likely receive much stamina influence from his third dam, as she is a daughter of Majestic Light.

After two starts in England, including a rallying runner-up finish that convinced Team Valor International to purchase him, Went the Day Well made his United States debut, rallying for a fourth-place result at Gulfstream Park. He then broke his maiden over the Gulfstream dirt after being forwardly placed. Like stablemate Animal Kingdom, Went the Day Well easily won the Spiral Stakes (GIII) at Turfway Park en route to the Kentucky Derby.

Also like stablemate Animal Kingdom, who of course won the 2011 Run for the Roses for the same connections, Went the Day Well turned in a notable final work for the Derby a week before the prestigious race. He covered five furlongs at Churchill Downs in 1:01 flat, traveling over the ground well.

Went the Day Well certainly has a liable shot at repeating Animal Kingdom’s feat on the first Saturday in May. His pedigree should allow him to get the distance, he has already won over dirt, he has displayed improvement and capability, he has a good post, and in his final work, he appeared to like the Churchill Downs dirt. Went the Day Well could provide his connections with back-to-back victories in the world’s greatest race, or at least a very remarkable performance. For more on why Went the Day Well is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.

#14. Hansen: A son of a grade one winner at nine furlongs in Tapit and a sprinting mare, Hansen does not seem to be bred for ten furlongs. Tapit has sired a ten-furlong grade one winner in Careless Jewel, but for the most part, his offspring have been mostly successful as juveniles and at distances at nine furlongs or shorter. Hansen's full brother, Tapanna, has never won beyond one mile.

Hansen
Photo: Terri Cage

The nearly-white colt made his first two starts on Turfway Park’s synthetic surface, capturing those races by a combined 25 ½ lengths after setting quick fractions. He then upset Union Rags by a scant head in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI), leading from start to finish yet again while setting a rapid pace. He was handed his first loss when he made his sophomore debut, being soundly defeated by Algorithms in the Holy Bull Stakes (GIII) on an off track at Gulfstream Park after being rank early on. He rebounded next out, showing a new dimension in the Gotham Stakes (GIII) when he settled off the pace slightly before going on to win by 3 lengths. In his final prep for the Derby, the Blue Grass Stakes (GI) over Keeneland’s Polytrack surface, the colt was very rank and set blistering fractions before falling short to Dullahan.

Like he did before capturing the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Hansen made his final preparations for the Derby at Churchill Downs Trackside Training Center, which has a similar surface to Churchill. His final work was a 1:01.20 five-furlong breeze, in which he yet again moved in swift fashion but covered the ground nicely.

It is a major worry that Hansen will be too rank in the Derby, as he is drawn outside the rest of the speed and the pace that will be set is expected to be very hot. Horses like Trinniberg, and possibly Bodemeister and Take Charge Indy as well, could cause Hansen to get caught in a speed duel, which is a situation that his pedigree would not aid him with at all. The colt will need to do what he has scarcely done: relax off the pace. If the colt cannot settle, he will be in big trouble in the Derby.

#15. Gemologist: As a result of the mating between the two-time Breeders’ Cup Classic (GI, 10F)-winning Tiznow and the Mr. Prospector mare Crystal Shard, Gemologist is bred to love the mile and one-quarter distance of the Kentucky Derby. As a broodmare sire, Mr. Prospector has yielded the two-time ten-furlong-winning Horse of the Year Mineshaft and the grade one winner at ten furlongs Rock Hard Ten.

The only undefeated horse in the field, Gemologist is also the only horse with two victories over Churchill Downs’ dirt surface. He debuted at Turfway Park as a juvenile, setting the pace en route to a 5-length victory. The WinStar Farm-owned colt then won an allowance optional claiming at Churchill Downs in similar fashion prior to taking the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (GII) by 1 ¾ lengths after settling just off the pace. Gemologist did not make his sophomore debut until March, trouncing rivals in a one-mile allowance optional claiming at Gulfstream Park and completing the race in an impressive final time of 1:35.95. In his final prep race for the Derby, he was forwardly placed before gamely outdueling Alpha to win the Wood Memorial Stakes (GI) by a neck at nine furlongs at Aqueduct.

I would have, of course, preferred for Gemologist to have his final work at Churchill Downs, but it is not too much of an issue in my opinion due to the fact that he obviously likes the track. He made his final preparation at Palm Meadows Training Center in Florida, posting an easy half-mile work in 50.39 seconds on Sunday over an off track, setting the fastest work of the day at four furlongs.

Gemologist has all you could want in a top Derby contender: pedigree, racing talent, an affinity for Churchill Downs, correct conformation, a good post, and the ability to rate off the pace. The only problem may be that most of his times have not been spectacular. Nonetheless, he is a reliable horse with a practical chance to win. For more on why Gemologist is top Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.

#16. El Padrino: By a son of A.P. Indy in Pulpit and out of a Giant’s Causeway mare, El Padrino appears to have the stamina to do well in the Derby on the surface. Delve in more and you’ll find additional routing influences in the multiple crosses of Mr. Prospector, Blushing Groom, Secretariat, and Nasrullah found in his pedigree. It is also encouraging that El Padrino descends from female family thirteen, which also yielded the 1977 Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew.

Following a game runner-up finish in his debut at Saratoga as a juvenile, El Padrino dominantly captured a one-mile maiden special weight at Belmont Park, trouncing his rivals by 12 ¾ lengths over a sloppy track. In his final start as a juvenile, “The Godfather” ran a willing third in the Remsen Stakes (GII) at nine-furlongs at Aqueduct. Straight off the heels of an impressive allowance optional claiming victory in front of eventual Florida Derby (GI) victor Take Charge Indy over a sealed track at Gulfstream, El Padrino displayed great determination while capturing the Risen Star Stakes (GII) at the Fair Grounds by a nose over Mark Valeski. Despite the hype surrounding him, the flashy chestnut colt was rather flat when finishing fourth behind Take Charge Indy, Reveron, and Union Rags in the Florida Derby.

Though I see works at Churchill Downs in preparation as a huge advantage, trainer Todd Pletcher chose to keep the son of Pulpit in Florida to train for the Derby. His most recent work was a very slow half-mile over an off track; El Padrino posted a final time of 53.34 at Palm Meadows Training Center. But Todd Pletcher does not typically work his horses tremendously fast anyhow.

Though El Padrino’s final prep race for the Kentucky Derby was quite dull, he has shown brilliance in the past and has the pedigree for ten furlongs. He will certainly have to show much improvement and is not included in my top ten, but El Padrino should not be forgotten and has a good post, breaking from the same gate as last year’s victor. For more on why El Padrino is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.

#17. Done Talking: Sired by Broken Vow, a two-time graded stakes winner at nine furlongs and out of a graded stakes-winning middle-distance mare by Dixieland Band, Done Talking is covered for nine furlongs, but is a bit on the fence as far as the distance of ten furlongs is concerned. He is bred on the same cross as the successful sprinter and miler, Cotton Blossom, and that cross only has an average winning distance of just over six and one-half furlongs.

Done Talking broke his maiden in his third start at Delaware Park as a juvenile prior to rallying to take a Parx allowance by 1 ¾ lengths. He then finished a decent fourth in the nine-furlong Remsen Stakes (GII) at Aqueduct to end his two-year-old campaign. Making his sophomore debut in the Gotham Stakes (GIII) at Aqueduct in March, Done Talking never made an impact and finished tenth. A month later, he faced an easier field in the Illinois Derby (GIII), grinding his way to a ¾-length victory in a very sluggish final time of 1:53.88 for nine furlongs.

Done Talking has been turning in unpretentious works at his home track, Laurel Park in Maryland. Working primarily at either four or five furlongs, Done Talking’s final work was a modest 1:01 flat move for five-eighths of a mile. I’d rather he have made his final preparations at Churchill, though, as he has never been to the track and could have used any available time to train there.

I do not foresee Done Talking performing very well in the Kentucky Derby. He is much slower than most of the other contenders and is simply eclipsed by their talent.

#18. Sabercat: A result of the mating between Derby runner-up and Haskell Invitational (GI, 9F)-winning Bluegrass Cat and a daughter of Travers Stakes (GI, 10F)-winning and Derby runner-up Forty Niner, Sabercat seems to have the pedigree for the Derby. The most intriguing, and possibly most advantageous, factor of his pedigree is that he is a direct descendant of the great broodmare La Troienne, who is found in the dam line of Derby winners Go for Gin, Sea Hero, Smarty Jones, and Super Saver.

After rallying to take fourth and third, respectively, in his first two starts, both of which came at Churchill Downs, Sabercat finished a poor eighth in his turf debut at Saratoga. Returning to the dirt, this time at Monmouth Park, Sabercat battled the eventual multiple graded stakes-placed My Adonis on the pace before prevailing by a half-length to break his maiden. He won with a forwardly placed run in the Garden State Stakes prior to rallying from near the back of the field to take the Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (GIII) by four lengths. His sophomore debut was incredibly disappointing, however, as he ran eighth in the Rebel Stakes (GII). He ran much better next out in the Arkansas Derby (GI), but his third-place finish there was not flashy.

Unlike his racing performances this year, Sabercat’s final training for the Derby over Churchill Downs’ dirt surface has been remarkable. He has traveled over the ground well and his final work over the track – a 48.40 half-mile breeze – was very visually impressive.

Though Sabercat has worked well over the track, many of the others seem to outshine him. He has not performed tremendously well in the afternoon this year and appears to be a step below the rest of the field.

#19. I’ll Have Another: By the Travers Stakes (GI, 10F)-winning Flower Alley and out of an Arch daughter, I’ll Have Another has a carefully constructed ten-furlong pedigree. His dam is not only by the sire of the Breeders’ Cup Classic (GI, 10F)-winning Arch, but she is also a granddaughter of the stamina-influencing Pleasant Tap. He is also the direct descendant of a Reine De Course mare in Pontivy.

I’ll Have Another led from start to finish in his career debut at Hollywood Park and after that win, he took on graded stakes company in the Best Pal Stakes (GII) at Del Mar, finishing 1 ¾ lengths behind Creative Cause while crossing the wire in second. He then shipped east for the Hopeful Stakes (GI) at Saratoga, in which he encountered a sloppy track and finished sixth, surfacing from the race with an injury that prevented him from racing again until February. When he returned, he effortlessly trounced his rivals in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (GII) over a fast dirt track at Santa Anita despite being dismissed as a longshot. In his final prep, the Santa Anita Derby (GI), the stunning chestnut colt ran down Creative Cause in the stretch to prevail by a nose.

Against my preference, I’ll Have Another made his final work at Hollywood Park rather than Churchill Downs, turning in a nice six furlong work in 1:13.80. He shipped to Churchill Downs a week before the Derby and though I would have liked to see him get in a work over the track like rival Creative Cause did, he has had several brisk gallops over the Louisville track, galloping over the track so commandingly that he might as well have worked.

I’ll Have Another has the pedigree, the brilliance, the conformation, the running style, and the ability to run an elite race in the Kentucky Derby. However, he may be slightly harmed by his far outside post. For more on why I’ll Have Another is a leading contender for the Kentucky Derby, please click here.

#20. Liaison: The sire of Liaison is the late Indian Charlie, who was a grade one winner at nine furlongs but tired to finish third in the Kentucky Derby. Liaison should garner more stamina from his dam, however, as she is a daughter of the Belmont Stakes (GI, 12F)-winning Victory Gallop and a granddaughter of the Belmont- and Breeders’ Cup Classic (GI, 10F)-winning A.P. Indy. He is also a direct descendant of the Hall of Fame Reine De Course mare who won the Kentucky Oaks, the Coaching Club American Oaks when it was contested at eleven furlongs, and several other prestigious races, Real Delight.

After a third-place finish in his debut, which came at one mile over Del Mar’s synthetic track, Liaison rallied to win a seven-furlong maiden over Santa Anita’s dirt. In his stakes debut, Liaison rallied yet again to capture the Real Quiet Stakes by a half-length over Hollywood Park’s cushion track. In his final start as a juvenile, he triumphed in the CashCall Futurity (GI) at the same track, settling off the leaders before getting up to win by a neck. In his sophomore debut, Liaison did not appear to have the needed kick, but before he could even complete the race, he clipped heels and unseated his rider. In the San Felipe Stakes (GII) next out, the colt closed from off the pace but could finish no better than fourth. In the Santa Anita Derby (GI), Liaison yet again failed to show his old spark and crossed the wire in sixth.

Bob Baffert shipped Liaison to Churchill Downs despite the fact that he was unsure whether the colt would run in the Derby or not. The decision rested on his final works, and when Liaison strikingly covered five furlongs over the Louisville track in 1:00.80, the son of Indian Charlie found himself entered in the greatest two minutes in sports.

Liason was spectacular in his final work, but he very well may have been a better juvenile than a sophomore. And although he should receive stamina from his dam side, the distance of ten furlongs is still questionable of the colt. A good performance would not be totally shocking, but Liaison has been outperformed by several of these horses in 2012 and likely will be on Saturday, especially with his post on the very outside.

Also Eligible:

#21. My Adonis: By Breeders’ Cup Classic (GI, 10F)- and Dubai World Cup (GI, 10F)-winning Pleasantly Perfect and out of a mare by Elusive Quality, who is the sire of the Derby- and Preakness Stakes (GI, 9.5F)-winning Smarty Jones, My Adonis appears to have the pedigree to get the Derby distance.

My Adonis broke his maiden in his fourth start at Monmouth Park, romping over a muddy track at one mile and seventy yards. He followed up that win with an easy victory in the Jean Lafitte Stakes at Delta Downs. Following a very disappointing ninth-place performance in the Delta Downs Jackpot (GIII), My Adonis ran a decent third behind Algorithms and Hansen in the Holy Bull Stakes (GIII) over a sloppy track at Gulfstream. He ran behind Hansen yet again next out, finishing second behind the champion juvenile in the Gotham Stakes (GIII) at Aqueduct. His final prep for the Derby was a poor seventh-place finish in the Wood Memorial Stakes (GI).

My Adonis’ final work came at Monmouth Park in a 1:01.60 five-furlong move.

Though bred for the distance, I do not expect for My Adonis to perform well in the Derby should he draw in.

As mentioned, this year’s running of the Kentucky Derby features one of the deepest fields in years. My top selection for the Run for the Roses is the brilliant Union Rags, though I very much like Bodemeister, I’ll Have Another, and Creative Cause as well. I also cannot discount Went the Day Well, Gemologist, Dullahan, or Alpha. Good longshot plays appear to be Daddy Nose Best, El Padrino, and Sabercat, though high odds will be found on Rousing Sermon and Prospective as well, both of which could be useful in the exotics. The 2012 Kentucky Derby is wide open, but I truly feel as if Union Rags is poised to run a spectacular race. No matter how the race turns out, the Kentucky Derby will surely be an exciting race worthy of being the event that is most anticipated annually in the sport of kings.

For my final rankings for the Kentucky Derby, please refer to my Final Derby Top Ten, which can be found here.

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