2012 Belmont Stakes Field Analysis

Eleven Thoroughbreds have swept the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, and Belmont Stakes to become one of racing’s elite Triple Crown winners. Eleven Thoroughbreds have won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness prior to falling short in the Belmont since the most recent Triple Crown champion. It is safe to say that enthusiasm and disappointment have been recurring themes throughout the past thirty-three Triple Crowns.

Our last memory of the Triple Crown being conquered is Affirmed’s narrow victory over rival Alydar in the 1978 Belmont Stakes. Since then, there have been eighteen horses that have won just two legs of the Triple Crown – one of those horses still has one jewel left to go.

Ever since I’ll Have Another followed up his Kentucky Derby victory with a win in the Preakness, excitement has been building. On Saturday, it will be soaring through the roof. The colt is in pursuit of becoming the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978. America will have their eyes on I’ll Have Another, but though fans are eager for his chance to win, they have their guards up, because for over three decades, we have been let down. Is 2012 the year?

Listed below are all of the horses entered to run in the 2012 Belmont Stakes, along with descriptions of their pedigrees, racing records, final preparations, and my opinions of them. The colts are listed in post position order.

#1. Street Life: The sire of this colt is Street Sense, a two-time grade one winner at ten furlongs. His grandsire, Street Cry, is also the sire of the great Zenyatta, who was also victorious at ten furlongs, and Shocking, who won the near-16-furlong Melbourne Cup (GI). Street Life’s broodmare sire, Grindstone, won the 1996 Kentucky Derby and is a son of Unbridled, who sired Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker. Grindstone himself produced a Belmont victor in Birdstone, who also sired a Belmont champion in Summer Bird.

A colt I have followed since he broke his maiden, Street Life garnered his first career victory in his second race while making an impressive late rally to take a mile and seventy yards maiden special weight at Aqueduct. Following a closing win in the mile and one-sixteenth Broad Brush on the same track, Street Life finished sixth in the Wood Memorial Stakes (GI) after having too much ground to make up and not changing leads until late in the stretch. He then finished third in the nine-furlong Peter Pan Stakes (GII), making up much ground to close impressively before running out of room late. He looked like he was ready to keep going.

Street Life has been working at Belmont Park, posting mostly five-furlong breezes. His final work was a 1:01.15 five-furlong work in company. The colt has also had several strong gallops over the track.

Street Life will need to step it up on Saturday, but his pedigree and running style support him in his ability to get the twelve-furlong distance of the Belmont. He is a threat, but he will have to bring his A-game. For more on Street Life, please click here.

#2. Unstoppable U: This Ken McPeek trainee is sired by Exchange Rate, a horse who never won beyond a mile and one-sixteenth and was primarily successful as a sprinter. Exchange Rate is a lucrative sire of middle distance runners and sprinters. Though Unstoppable U’s dam never won beyond one mile, the colt’s damsire is Point Given, a son of Kentucky Derby and Belmont winner Thunder Gulch who won the Belmont by 12 ¼ lengths in the same final time that Affirmed captured the race, 2:26.80 – the sixth-fastest in history. Notably, the sire of Unstoppable U’s granddam is Triple Crown champion Seattle Slew.

Unstoppable U has only started twice, winning a six-furlong maiden at Aqueduct in late March prior to easily winning a one-mile allowance optional claiming at Belmont at the end of April. A twelve-furlong classic is an enormous step up for the colt.

His final work was an unremarkable 1:02.05 five-furlong work at Belmont on Sunday – a breeze that McPeek was not thrilled with. This is quite discouraging.

Though Unstoppable U should receive some stamina from his dam side, he is lacking plenty of it and two one-turn races, along with a string of four- and five-furlong works, certainly do not prepare him for twelve furlongs. A good race from Unstoppable U in the Belmont would be surprising.

#3. Union Rags: The sire of Union Rags, Dixie Union, was winless beyond nine furlongs and faded to finish fourth in his single ten-furlong attempt and is more useful as a sire of middle distance horses or sprinters. The colt’s dam is sired by Gone West, who produced multiple distance horses, including Belmont Stakes winner Commendable. Though his dam only won at six furlongs, Union Rags’ second dam was capable of winning graded stakes up to twelve furlongs. With horses such as Nijinsky, Seattle Slew, and Secretariat found in his pedigree, the distance may not be as much of a question as many believe it is.

Union Rags has shown that he needs a clean trip, but when he gets one, he is absolutely brilliant and difficult to defeat. He has not won since his spectacular Fountain of Youth Stakes (GII) victory in February, but he made good rallies in both the Florida Derby (GI) and the Kentucky Derby.

Union Rags has prepped for the Belmont at Fair Hill Training Center in Maryland and seems to be maturing. His most recent work was a bullet 59-flat five-furlong move over the dirt training track at Fair Hill, in which new rider John Velazquez was aboard. I would have preferred for him to have training time at Belmont, but he clearly has an affinity for the track, as he impressively won the Champagne Stakes (GI) there as a two-year-old.

Though there is some doubt in his pedigree as far as distance is concerned, Union Rags’ action and brilliance just may provide him with the ability to get the distance. Many have viewed him as overrated, but I believe he has become underrated. But Union Rags has several questions to answer in the Belmont. For more on Union Rags, please click here.

#4. Atigun: This colt’s sire, Istan, never won beyond a mile and a sixteenth, though he is by Gone West, who sired multiple grade one winners at the twelve-furlong distance of the Belmont, including Belmont victor Commendable. In addition, Atigun’s most successful half-sibling, Rimini Rebel, never won at a distance farther than a mile and one-sixteenth. However, his damsire is Dynaformer, who is a great stamina influence in a Thoroughbred’s pedigree. But the appearance of speedy horses such as Devil’s Bag and Dr. Fager on the dam side of Atigun’s pedigree do not bode well for his chance at a mile and one-half.

Atigun is winless in stakes company, only having a maiden special weight and two allowance optional claiming victories to his credit. He’s never finished in the money in a stakes race, his best performances being fifth-place finishes in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (GII) and the Arkansas Derby (GI). He has also never won beyond a mile and one-sixteenth.

Atigun has had plenty of time to get acclimated to Belmont Park, as he has had four works at the track, including a bullet work for four furlongs. However, his last two breezes have been at just a half-mile – not exactly a stamina-building distance.

I do not expect for Atigun to be competitive in Saturday’s Belmont.

#5. Dullahan: As a half-brother to Mine That Bird, many believe Dullahan is bred through-and-through for the Belmont. However, Mine That Bird finished a distant third in his Belmont pursuit, partially as a result of Calvin Borel’s early move. In addition, Mine That Bird was more thoroughly bred for the twelve-furlong distance, as he was sired by Belmont victor Birdstone. Dullahan, on the other hand, is by Even the Score, who never earned a win in a race longer than nine furlongs and only managed a third in his sole ten-furlong attempt. Even the Score has sired a grade one winner at ten furlongs in Take the Points, who was beaten 1 ½ lengths at eleven furlongs. However, Dullahan’s broodmare sire, Smart Strike, was the sire of English Channel – who won five races at eleven furlongs or longer – and Curlin – who came within a head of winning the 2007 Belmont Stakes.

Dullahan still remains winless on dirt. Though he has run some very good races on conventional dirt, he never seems to travel over it as well as he runs over synthetic. Though many have raved about his rally to attain third in the Derby, I feel as if he simply just did not have a good enough kick to get there and did not gallop out as well as I’ll Have Another. In addition, he was drifting out in late stretch, which is a bit discouraging. However, as a grinder, the stretch in distance could certainly be to his advantage.

Many have praised Dullahan’s bullet half-mile work that came on Sunday. The Dale Romans trainee travelled four furlongs in a dazzling 45.97, posting the fastest of sixty-six works at that distance. Though the work was similar to the one he posted before his win in the Blue Grass Stakes (GI), there is also a difference in distances. Prior to the Blue Grass, Dullahan travelled five furlongs in 57.40 in preparation for the nine-furlong race. On Sunday, he worked one furlong shorter for a race that is three furlongs longer. However, the colt did breeze a mile eight days prior and has been galloping at stamina-building distances.

Dullahan poses a huge spoiler threat in the Belmont. Though not as bred for stamina as his famous half-brother, he does appear to be able to go the distance. However, the dirt question still looms menacingly and the Belmont surface is not particularly kind to horses that prefer synthetics or turf, though he appears to be handling the track quite well. He is certainly one of the top Belmont contenders nonetheless. For more on Dullahan, please click here.

#6. Ravelo’s Boy: This colt appears to be bred more towards one-turn races or middle distances, as his sire is the late Lawyer Ron, a brilliant horse who never won beyond nine furlongs and was winless in four tries at ten furlongs. Lawyer Ron’s best offspring is Drill, a colt who has never been victorious beyond seven furlongs. The dam of Ravelo’s Boy never won at a distance longer than seven furlongs and is sired by French Deputy, a horse who never won farther than one mile and finished ninth in his sole ten-furlong attempt.

In thirteen starts, Ravelo’s Boy has only found the winner’s circle twice, has never been victorious in a stakes race, and has not raced outside of Florida. He started ten times as a two-year-old, acquiring his pair of wins then, and has contested solely in stakes races this year without success. He has not run since the Tampa Bay Derby (GIII) in March, in which he finished fifth.

Over the past sixty days, Ravelo’s Boy has put together a wide variety of workouts, spanning from three furlongs to seven, at Calder. His most recent work was a good six-furlong work in 1:11.80 on Sunday, but I find it discouraging that he has not had time to grow accustomed to Belmont.

Due to a non-stamina-based pedigree, mediocre racing performances, and little time to adapt to Belmont, I do not foresee a good race from Ravelo’s Boy in the Belmont.

#7. Five Sixteen: This colt should receive stamina from his sire, Invasor, as he captured the third leg of Uruguay’s Triple Crown, the Gran Premio Nacional (Uruguayan Derby) (GI), at a distance of 2500 meters, which is nearly 12.5 furlongs. However, his broodmare sire, Salt Lake, was brilliant as a sprinter and as a broodmare sire has been primarily lucrative in producing horses of the same nature. In fact, the cross on which Five Sixteen is bred only has an average winning distance of about six and one-half furlongs.

Five Sixteen did not break his maiden since his fifth start and next out, in his most recent race, he finished fourth of six in a nine-furlong allowance, beaten 11 ¾ lengths. Since that disappointing allowance finish, Five Sixteen has put together a string of five-furlong works at Belmont Park.

I believe all Five Sixteen has going for him is his rider, Rosie Napravnik. I don’t view him as a threat.

#8. Guyana Star Dweej: By Eddington and out of a Pine Bluff mare, Guyana Star Dweej has one of the more stamina-marked pedigrees in the field. Eddington was victorious as far as a mile and three-sixteenths and finished fourth in the 2004 Belmont. Guyana Star Dweej’s broodmare sire, Pine Bluff, won the 1992 Preakness prior to finishing third, beaten just approximately a length by A.P. Indy, in the Belmont. Guyana Star Dweej’s dam is a half-sister to the winner of the 1994 Breeders’ Cup Classic (10F, GI), Concern. Guyana Star Dweej is truly bred more along the lines of a ten-furlong runner, but since American horses are not really bred for twelve-furlongs anymore, this colt has one of the best pedigrees for the Belmont distance of the entrants.

But Guyana Star Dweej falls short when it comes to racing performances. It took him nine tries to break his maiden and most recently, he was demolished by Unstoppable U in an allowance optional claiming in his first effort against winners.

The colt has been turning in simple half-mile works at Belmont, none of which have been very impressive. In fact, he has been travelling to the wire more slowly than he begins the works, as he does not seem to be able to settle.

I do not expect for Guyana Star Dweej to perform very well in the Belmont.

#9. Paynter: This stunning colt can certainly at least cover ten furlongs. His sire is Awesome Again, winner of the 1998 Breeders’ Cup Classic (GI). Awesome Again has sired multiple grade one winners at ten furlongs, including Awesome Gem, Game on Dude, Ghostzapper, and Ginger Punch. Notably, Paynter is out of a full sister to two-time Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Tiznow and is bred on a very similar cross to Ghostzapper.

I have followed Paynter since his debut, which was an easy win in a five and one-half-furlong maiden special weight at Santa Anita in February. Following a troubled fourth behind I’ll Have Another in the nine-furlong Santa Anita Derby (GI), Paynter ran a very good second to Hierro in the one-mile Derby Trial Stakes (GIII) over a sloppy track at Churchill Downs. On Preakness day, the brilliant colt trounced an allowance field going a mile and one-sixteenth at Pimlico.

Seeking revenge for stablemate Bodemeister, Paynter has had two impressive works – both of which were bullets – at Belmont. The first was an efficient, brisk five furlongs in 59.26 seconds over the training track, which was the fastest of forty-one works covering the same conditions. His final work was a seven-furlong work in a notable time of 1:25 flat – a stamina-building work that I find very advantageous.

Though Paynter has been asked of a lot in his brief career, I have always felt he is a brilliant colt. But contesting in the Belmont Stakes is a huge step up for him, not only in class but of course in terms of distance and the effect it could have on him as well.

#10. Optimizer: This colt certainly is bred for the Belmont. His sire, English Channel, was victorious five times at races that spanned a distance of eleven furlongs or longer. The dam of Optimizer, Indy Pick, is sired by none other than the great A.P. Indy, who won the 1992 Belmont and sired the 2007 winner of final leg of the Triple Crown, Rags to Riches. Indy Pick has also produced Humdinger, a black-type-placed winning steeplechaser whose longest winning distance was an incredible three and one-eighth miles. Optimizer is bred to run all day.

Optimizer, however, has not won since his debut and has not won on dirt – a situation that is certainly to his disadvantage at Belmont, a very demanding dirt track. Optimizer has never fared very well against the best of the best, finishing eighth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI), eleventh in the Kentucky Derby, and sixth in the Preakness. His rally in the Preakness was decent, but nothing spectacular.

Optimizer has been posting four- and five-furlong works at Churchill Downs in preparation for the Belmont. His trainer, a four-time Belmont winner, certainly knows how to prepare a horse for the final leg of the Triple Crown, though these works are not very stamina-building.

If anything leads Optimizer to a race in the Belmont that eclipses the ones he has run recently, it will be his pedigree. Should only one horse handle the Belmont distance, it would be Optimizer. However, I do not believe he is as talented as several others in the field.

#11. I’ll Have Another: All eyes will be on him come Saturday, so while butterflies will run rampant in the stomachs of racing fans throughout the nation, it may be reassuring to many fans that I’ll Have Another is about as bred for the Belmont as an American horse can be in this day and age. His sire, Flower Alley, won the ten-furlong Travers Stakes (GI) and finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (GI) at the same distance. The sire of Flower Alley, Distorted Humor, is as close to as stamina-influencing as sires come in the United States nowadays. Distorted Humor has sired the Belmont- and Breeders’ Cup Classic-winning Drosselmeyer and the Kentucky Derby- and Preakness-winning Funny Cide. I’ll Have Another’s broodmare sire, Arch, is the sire of Breeders’ Cup Classic-winning Blame and captured the Super Derby (GI) when it was contested at ten furlongs. I’ll Have Another is also a member of the same stamina-filled female family as the most recent Triple Crown winner Affirmed – female family twenty-three.

Undefeated this year, I’ll Have Another has displayed brilliance, confidence, and determination in his Derby and Preakness wins. Trainer Doug O’Neill made the controversial decision to just gallop his famous horse up to the Belmont, but considering this horse gallops so vigorously, he may as well be working every day. Yes, he very well could be quite fresh and yes, Alysheba lost after not putting a final work in before the Belmont, but I’ll Have Another gets absolutely plenty out of his routine gallops. In fact, some of his split times are even quicker than fractions posted in works and the gallops he has been executing could be very stamina-building.

History is against I’ll Have Another to win the Belmont, but I feel he has a very good chance to win the race should he settle and receive a great ride from Mario Gutierrez yet again. He is a very versatile, tactical horse with a post that suits him very well, and he has proven to be the top of this class so far. A win by him would be tremendous for racing and certainly not a surprise to me, though he has a tall task ahead of him. For more on I’ll Have Another, please click here.

#12. My Adonis: By Breeders’ Cup Classic (GI)- and Dubai World Cup (GI)-winning Pleasantly Perfect and out of a mare by Elusive Quality, who is the sire of the Derby- and Preakness Stakes (GI)-winning Smarty Jones, My Adonis appears to have the pedigree to go at least ten furlongs. However, Elusive Quality is primarily successful with milers and sprinters and as a broodmare sire, his mares’ offspring have won at an average winning distance of just over six furlongs.

My Adonis is winless this year and in graded stakes races. Following good in-the-money performances in the Holy Bull Stakes (GIII) and the Gotham Stakes (GIII), My Adonis was the last horse to cross the wire in the Wood Memorial Stakes (GI). He has since finished third of five in the mile and one-sixteenth Canonero II Stakes at Pimlico.

The colt has had only one work since his performance in the Canonero II Stakes, going five furlongs in 59.80 at Monmouth.

Considering the choice to run My Adonis in the Belmont was a last minute decision, he has an unspectacular racing record, and a questionable pedigree, I do not foresee My Adonis being very competitive in the Belmont.

My top pick for the Belmont is, yes, I’ll Have Another. I believe the horses that pose the biggest threats to be the next “Triple Crown Spoiler” are Union Rags, Dullahan, Street Life, and perhaps Paynter. But what horse racing needs is a win by I’ll Have Another – the first Triple Crown triumph since 1978. What the plethora of people that will be tuning into the Belmont that never watch horse racing want to see is a win by I'll Have Another. And frankly, I’ll Have Another has a good shot at it.

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2012 Preakness Stakes Field Analysis

With the excitement of the Kentucky Derby (GI) behind us, the focus shifts to the second leg of the Triple Crown, the Preakness Stakes (GI). Contested at a mile and three-sixteenths at Pimlico Racecourse in Maryland, the middle jewel of the Crown is half a furlong shorter than the Run for the Roses. The Kentucky Derby victor, I’ll Have Another, will continue his bid for the Triple Crown and should he emerge as a winner on Saturday, he will proceed to the Big Apple for the Belmont Stakes (GI) for the final leg of the Triple Crown in attempt to receive title that has not been captured since 1978. The Preakness features a record of many notable winners, having produced a three-year-old Eclipse Champion in ten of its last eleven runnings. This year’s Preakness at Old Hilltop is sure to be one that will be remembered for years to come.

Listed below are all of the horses entered to run in the 2012 Preakness Stakes, along with descriptions of their recent racing and training endeavors, as well as the chances I believe they each have. The entrants are listed in post position order.

#1. Tiger Walk: Following two easy wins at Laurel Park, the son of Tale of the Cat ran well in three graded stakes at Aqueduct: two thirds in the Withers Stakes (GIII) and the Gotham Stakes (GIII), as well as a fourth in the Wood Memorial Stakes (GI). I believe the Preakness field will prove to be too much for him, despite the fact that he has had more training over Pimlico’s surface than any other entrant.

#2. Teeth of the Dog: He ran a good third in the Wood Memorial Stakes (GI), but the top two finishers in that race - Gemologist and Alpha - did not make much of a dent in the Kentucky Derby, though Gemologist did emerge from the race with an injury. Though he is on a rise, he appears to be outclassed here.

#3. Pretension: Coming off a stakes win at Pimlico, the son of Bluegrass Cat clearly has an affinity for Old Hilltop. However, he has not fared well against graded company, having finished fifth in the Gotham Stakes (GIII) and ninth in the Illinois Derby (GIII). I do not expect for him to run very well in the Preakness.

#4. Zetterholm: After an eleventh-place finish in his debut, Zetterholm has finished no worse than second and is coming off a three-race winning streak. However, he has never won anywhere other than Aqueduct and has never faced tremendously high-quality athletes. The Preakness is too large of a step up for him.

#5. Went the Day Well: A colt that I have much confidence in, Went the Day Well finished more strongly than any other horse in the Kentucky Derby. Given a smoother trip, the son of Proud Citizen could have given his connections a repeat victory in the Run for the Roses. I believe he has a very good chance at providing his connections with redemption at the Preakness. For more on Went the Day Well, please click here.

#6. Creative Cause: This colt ran a great race in the Kentucky Derby, but just did not have the acceleration necessary for a victory. However, the race seems to have taken quite a bit out of him and between traveling from Kentucky to California to Maryland, the colt may be quite fatigued. He’s gifted, but he may not be on the top of his game, which he will need to be. For more on Creative Cause, please click here.

#7. Bodemeister: He ran an absolutely spectacular race in the Kentucky Derby, but there is the worry that he may have fatigued himself too much in doing so. However, the fact that Bob Baffert is sending him to the middle jewel of the Triple Crown just two weeks after his amazing performance is encouraging. Bodemeister will need to be more relaxed than he was in the Preakness, but the pace should be much less taxing this time around and he could very well get an easy lead. Should he continue the brilliance he has shown, he will be very difficult to defeat. For more on Bodemeister, please click here.

#8. Daddy Nose Best: Despite nice wins in graded stakes prior to the Run for the Roses, Daddy Nose best finished tenth in the Kentucky Derby. He is a physically impressive horse, and though the smaller field should be easier on him, the colt has never fared very well against the best of competition, so the Preakness will not be an easy race for him.

#9. I'll Have Another: Though he has his work cut out for him, the Derby winner is a very gifted horse and has had the great opportunity of getting much training in over Pimlico's surface. Undefeated in three starts this year, I'll Have Another is entering the Preakness with much confidence. He is not receiving quite the amount of respect he deserves and could be underestimated here, especially considering how confident trainer Doug O’Neill is in how well the colt has been training. For more on why I'll Have Another, please click here.

#10. Optimizer: The D. Wayne Lukas ran a fairly respectable race in the Derby, but he has not won since his maiden and has never been victorious on dirt. Optimizer seems to be the type of horse to never get there. It would be a big surprise to me to see him win the Preakness.

#11. Cozzetti: A winner of only a single start in seven races, Cozzetti has run respectably in his three starts this year, finishing in the top four in three stakes, two of which were graded – the Tampa Bay Derby (GII) and the Arkansas Derby (GI). He has made up ground in his past couple of starts, but those rallies were never enough to score a victory and likely would not be in the Preakness, either.

Mostly, I expect for horses exiting the Kentucky Derby to have the largest impact on the Preakness. I believe this race is between those who ran in the Kentucky Derby, most notably those who finished in the top five in the Derby: I’ll Have Another, Went the Day Well, Bodemeister, and Creative Cause. 


Of course, it is I'll Have Another that many will be pulling for to win. There is never a bigger build-up of excitement than a Derby and Preakness winner approaching the Belmont. So, despite being the second choice on the morning line, I'll Have Another is the only horse with a chance at the Triple Crown. Would a win in the Preakness be an easy task for I'll Have Another? No. Would a win by I'll Have Another be the best thing for racing? Yes.

Shackleford, winner of the 2011 Preakness Stakes
Photo: Terri Cage

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Derby Top Ten #8

Countdown to Derby Day: 48 Days

This is my top ten list of Kentucky Derby contenders as of March 18.

1. Union Rags: This colt is full of pure talent and clearly loves to run. He was extremely professional in his Fountain of Youth Stakes (GII) victory, effortlessly galloping to victory. He could face a deep field in the Florida Derby (GI) on March 31, but if he’s as talented as he seems to be, we could see something spectacular from him yet again. For more on why he is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.

2. Creative Cause: He is certainly bred to run all day and was brilliant in his triumph in the San Felipe Stakes (GII), despite running greenly in the stretch, which could be a result of being struck by the whip. The way he accelerated just as he hit the wire was incredibly impressive, especially considering how far ahead of the others he galloped out. It also must be noted that he galloped out in front of every horse after the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI). Once Creative Cause has his mind on running, it is hard to defeat him. He is expected to run next in the Santa Anita Derby (GI) on April 7. For more on why he is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.

3. El Padrino: He is a tough, gritty colt with bloodlines and conformation that should allow him to handle long distances. He has run extremely well both over fast and sloppy tracks and has displayed professionalism in each of his starts. He could start next in the Florida Derby (GI) on March 31 or the Louisiana Derby (GII) on April 1. For more on why he is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.

4. Gemologist: He made the top ten of the first two editions of this list, but became an honorable mention the longer his sophomore debut was put off. He needed to get a race in which he displayed that he had matured and grown faster over the winter. He ran exactly that race on Friday at Gulfstream, defeating the grade one-winning Currency Swap in a one-mile open allowance that became practically his only choice when travel complications kept him from shipping to Oaklawn for the Rebel Stakes (GII). He was hardly asked at all by Javier Castellano en route to a 7-length victory. In fact, he was in hand for the majority of the homestretch. He completed the final quarter of a mile in 24.69 seconds despite only slight urging. He completed the eight-furlong distance in 1:35.95, a much faster one-mile clocking than his one-mile splits in his allowance optional claiming (2.57 seconds quicker) and Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (GII) (1.79 seconds quicker) victories as a juvenile. It was the perfect sophomore debut. He may have led the entire way in the allowance on Friday, but he has proven in the past that he can rate off the pace. By Tiznow and out of a Mr. Prospector mare, Gemologist surely should be able to handle the Triple Crown distances. In addition, he already has two very important wins over the Churchill Downs surface. His final prep is undecided, but is likely to come in April.

5. I’ll Have Another: Though I do not particularly care for his connection’s decision to not give him a race between his Robert B. Lewis Stakes (GII) win and the Santa Anita Derby (GI), I believe this colt is underrated. He has good form, a pedigree that hints at a future in route races, and he clearly enjoys to race. He will need to turn in a terrific performance in the Santa Anita Derby on April 7, but I believe he is capable of doing so.

6. Bodemeister: He did appear to be slightly fatigued after his game effort in the San Felipe, but he ran extremely well in that race and it was his first try around two turns. He will grow more robust under the care of Bob Baffert, especially considering his connections think highly of him after his dazzling maiden victory and tremendous second-place effort in the San Felipe. He may make his final prep for the Kentucky Derby in the Santa Anita Derby on April 7.

7. Mark Valeski: He was extremely tough in his runner-up finish behind El Padrino in the Risen Star Stakes (GII), giving the colt all he had before falling a nose short. His pedigree suggests that he will be able to get the Derby distance of ten furlongs, as he is by a Derby runner-up and has the same broodmare sire, Fortunate Prospect (RIP), as this year’s Santa Anita Handicap (GI) winner, Ron the Greek. He will likely race next in the Louisiana Derby (GII) on April 1.

8. Dullahan: If any horse has the pedigree to be able to be competitive at the Derby distance, it’s Dullahan, as he is a half-brother to the 2009 Kentucky Derby winner, Mine That Bird. He has proven that he is talented, as he won the Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity (GI) at Keeneland as a two-year-old before closing well to finish fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile behind Hansen, Union Rags, and Creative Cause. His 2012 debut in the Palm Beach Stakes (GIII) on March 11 was very respectable, as he closed to finish second after not having run in four months. It is anticipated that Dullahan will make his final prep for the Kentucky Derby in the Blue Grass Stakes (GI) over the same racetrack at which he ran his best race.

9. Hansen: We all know he is brilliant, but there is plenty of room for doubt when it comes to the distance question. He can get a mile and one-sixteenth and certainly has the potential to get nine furlongs, but I am unconvinced that he can be victorious at ten furlongs. He has improved, proving that he can rate, but that does not confirm that he will be triumphant at long distances. He is expected to make his final start before the Kentucky Derby in the Wood Memorial Stakes (GI) on April 7.

10. Secret Circle: Despite the fact that he has a pedigree full of stamina, it seems as if Secret Circle has distance limitations. However, his victories in the Southwest Stakes (GIII) and the Rebel Stakes (GII) were certainly steps in the right direction. His Rebel win on Saturday was very impressive, as, instead of running on or just off a quick pace, he found a position in fourth. Yet another factor of his triumph in the Rebel that was remarkable was that the son of Eddington dug in to get past Scatman in late stretch though it has been revealed that the colt is not the best about going past horses in the stretch.  Optimizer was gaining ground on him, but Secret Circle found enough to hold him off. His final time for the mile and one-sixteenth race was 1.87 seconds (approximately 9 ½ lengths) slower than Union Rags’ time in the Fountain of Youth and .71 seconds (about 3 ½ lengths) slower than Hansen’s time in the Gotham. However, though Secret Circle’s final sixteenth of a mile was .48 seconds slower than Union Rags’, it was only .04 seconds slower than Hansen’s. Secret Circle is a horse that is bred for long distances but will likely be more successful at shorter ones. He may make his next start in the nine-furlong Arkansas Derby (GI) on April 14, which should tell us more about him. For more on why he has the potential to become a top Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.

Honorable Mentions:

Alpha: He is definitely talented and well-bred, but has not been beating up on much. His connections have been quite indecisive on his final start before the Kentucky Derby, which could come in the Florida Derby on March 31, the Louisiana Derby on April 1, the Louisiana Derby on April 1 or the Arkansas Derby on April 14. They do not want to run him against horses they view as extremely tough, such as Union Rags and Hansen, but the colt needs to prove himself and needs to get a race in.

Castaway: He easily won the first division of the Southwest Stakes (GIII), but it was slower than Secret Circle’s victory in the second and final division. He was also recently outworked by Secret Circle, which may show that he is simply not fast enough. However, his pedigree (sired by Street Sense and out of a Storm Cat mare) shows that he very well may be much more appreciative of longer distances.

Heavy Breathing: Heavy Breathing is royally bred, being by Giant’s Causeway and out of a direct descendant of La Troienne that has already produced a grade one winner. He has been impressive in his two starts, winning them both handily. However, he will need to prove that his royal bloodlines and remarkable performances are legitimate. He will get his chance to do so in the Spiral Stakes (GIII) on March 24, which Animal Kingdom used as a launch pad prior to his Run for the Roses victory.

Howe Great: He has been brilliant this year and is proven on dirt, but though the sire of his sire is the Kentucky Derby and Preakness-winning Sunday Silence, his pedigree does not offer much encouragement as far as Triple Crown distances are concerned. However, he has the right connections to get him there: Graham Motion and Team Valor.

Optimizer: After a string of very disappointing finishes, which included an eighth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and a ninth-place finish in the Risen Star Stakes (GII), Optimizer ran an impressive second in the Rebel, closing quickly to finish second behind Secret Circle. The fractions may have set him up for this, but the D. Wayne Lukas trainee may have turned a new page.

Paynter: He is certainly talented, but I no longer feel as if he has a position in the top ten. Yes, he is making his next start in the Illinois Derby (GII), but he is going from five and one-half furlongs to nine furlongs, which is a huge jump. In addition, contending in the Kentucky Derby off of just two starts is not an advantage by any means. Though I would love to see him in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May, I believe it would be rushing things. Perhaps his connections should await the Preakness Stakes (GI), or at least make the goal the Breeders’ Cup Classic (GI). After all, he is by Awesome Again and out of a full sister to Tiznow.

Prospective: He was a good juvenile in Canada, but finished last in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile against many of these horses. He has flourished at Tampa Bay Downs this year, winning two of three starts, including the Tampa Bay Derby (GII).  Yet I am not extremely confident in how he would compete against many of the top Derby contenders.

Street Life: He has appeared on the honorable mentions list here several times (as well as in my article, Late Blooming Three-Year-Olds), as he impressed me in his breathtaking maiden victory, in which he closed in spectacular fashion to win. He won the Broad Brush Stakes on Saturday in similar fashion, but the race was not graded. By the Derby-winning Street Sense and out of a mare that is by the 1996 Derby winner, Grindstone, he is undoubtedly bred for the Derby. However, he would have to acquire a large amount of graded stakes earnings in his next start, which would need to come in time for the Derby. Perhaps he will not make it to Kentucky Derby, but look for him later on down the road.

Read more about many of the honorable mentions in my article, Late Blooming Three-Year-Olds.

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