The 2012 Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic

By Mary Cage

Ask any racing fan what race they view as the most competitive of this year’s Breeders’ Cup and there is a very good chance that their answer will be the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic (GI). Featuring a field loaded with fillies and mares – including three champions that already have Breeders’ Cup triumphs to their credit – ready for the fight of their lives, this race could go down in the history books as one of the greatest Breeders’ Cup races to ever be run.

Royal Delta

Royal Delta
Photo by Terri Cage

The reigning victress of the Ladies’ Classic, Royal Delta began 2012 on a sour note, being soundly defeated in a graded stakes at Gulfstream prior to suffering a difficult journey and loss in the Dubai World Cup (GI). However, she returned to the United States with a flourish, running away with the Fleur de Lis Handicap (GII) at Churchill Downs by 8 lengths. Following a hard-fought victory in the Delaware Handicap (GII), Royal Delta finished second to Love and Pride in the Personal Ensign Stakes (GI) at Saratoga, resurging in the final stages of the race despite appearing seemingly done.

But next out, the champion proved her dominance. In the Beldame Invitational Stakes (GI), a race in which she’d been left in the wake of eventual Horse of the Year Havre de Grace last year, Royal Delta crushed the field – which included the grade one-winning It’s Tricky – by an astounding 9 ½ lengths. Treating the race like an everyday gallop, Royal Delta was kept under wraps by Mike Smith in the stretch.

When Royal Delta brings her A-game, the champion appears invincible. As the defending champion of the Ladies’ Classic, this is her race to lose and though she has never started over Santa Anita’s surface, she has a huge advantage with Mike Smith aboard. Without a doubt, she will have her work cut out for her amongst such remarkable opponents, but if she’s on her best game, Royal Delta will be difficult to beat.

Awesome Feather

One of three previous Breeders’ Cup champions in this race, Awesome Feather conquered the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (GI) at Churchill Downs. Plagued by injuries, this undefeated filly has only raced four times since then. Altogether, Awesome Feather has captured these four victories by a combined 24 ¼ lengths.

Awesome Feather
Photo by Terri Cage

Awesome Feather’s only graded stakes victory among her four outings since her Breeders’ Cup triumph came in the Gazelle Stakes (GI) at Aqueduct last November, in which she defeated a field that included Love and Pride by 5 ¼ lengths. Following a dominant victory in the Florida Sunshine Millions Distaff Stakes, Awesome Feather was sidelined again, but returned in September in the Nasty Storm Stakes at Belmont. In stunning fashion, the Chad Brown trainee ran her flawless record to ten victories en route to a jaw-dropping 11 ¼-length romp in an impressive final time of 1:33.47 for one mile.

Over the past two years, Awesome Feather has been very lightly raced and has only contested against grade one company once. However, there is a certainly quality to this filly that makes her a very dangerous competitor: her sheer brilliance. I believe we do not yet know just how good Awesome Feather is.

My Miss Aurelia

A filly I have followed since her maiden, My Miss Aurelia is another undefeated champion entered in the Ladies’ Classic. Winner of last year’s Juvenile Fillies, My Miss Aurelia was sidelined due to injury following her spectacular win under the Twin Spires last November and, like Awesome Feather, has only been seen a handful of times since then. In fact, My Miss Aurelia has only raced twice since being crowned Champion Two-Year-Old Filly, having returned to the races this August.

My Miss Aurelia
Photo by Terri Cage

That return came in the Mandys Gold Stakes at Saratoga, which My Miss Aurelia won by 3 lengths going six furlongs. Next out, she faced Questing – who was coming off two spectacular grade one victories at the Spa – in the Cotillion Stakes (GI) at Parx. In a stirring stretch battle, My Miss Aurelia prevailed by a head to keep her undefeated record intact.

My Miss Aurelia is one of the most talented horses I have seen firsthand and I find it very impressive that she was able to reel in Questing in her second race after a layoff, though she did not carry as much weight. It is worrisome that My Miss Aurelia is entering the Breeders’ Cup off of such a tough race that was just her second since her return, but the filly appears to be in great condition. Another worry is that perhaps the nine-furlong distance of the Ladies’ Classic is a bit too far for her. However, this is My Miss Aurelia and I will never doubt her talent. It will be interesting to see how she fares against this star-studded field.

Questing

This Kiaran McLaughlin trainee began her career in the United Kingdom and following a fifth-place finish in last year’s Juvenile Fillies, Questing began her sophomore campaign with mediocre performances in allowance optional claiming events prior to an easy breakthrough win at that level.

Questing
Photo by Terri Cage

But then we saw the filly she had transformed into. Questing dived back into the grade one pool with a splash, galloping to an easy 4 ¼-length victory in the Coaching Club American Oaks (GI) at Saratoga despite drifting out in the stretch. Proving that this was no fluke, Questing annihilated rivals next out in the Alabama Stakes (GI), running erratically in the stretch yet again but capturing the race by an imposing 9 lengths in an impressive final time of 2:01.29 for ten furlongs.

Questing fell a head short to My Miss Aurelia in her successive start, the Cotillion Stakes. Rather than setting the pace as she had in her past two victories, Questing settled off the leader and while carrying seven pounds less than My Miss Aurelia, she missed by a head after a gutsy stretch duel.

It seems that Questing has been forgotten since her winning streak was snapped, but this filly should certainly not be erased from memory. She is absolutely brilliant and can use her speed as a deadly weapon. As a filly with both speed and stamina, Questing will play a large role in the outcome of the Ladies’ Classic.

Love and Pride

A daughter of the great A.P. Indy, Love and Pride commenced 2012 on the right note, dominating a stakes at Aqueduct by 7 lengths. Following three defeats in graded company – two of which were runner-up finishes – Love and Pride broke through with her first graded stakes victory, winning the Obeah Stakes (GIII) by nearly two lengths over Tiz Miz Sue, who would give Royal Delta a run for her money next out in the Delaware Handicap. However, Love and Pride crossed the wire fourth in the “Del Cap.”

But she avenged that loss with her first grade one victory in her subsequent race, defeating Royal Delta by a half-length in the Personal Ensign Handicap (GI). However, it must be pointed out that Royal Delta was carrying ten pounds more than Love and Pride, who then shipped west for a trip around Santa Anita’s dirt oval, easily winning the Zenyatta Stakes (GI) by 3 ¼ lengths after setting the pace.

Love and Pride seems to be underestimated by many, but I give her a good chance in this race. After all, she is a dual grade one winner with a victory at Santa Anita already under her belt. However, the Ladies’ Classic will be a very tall task for her and she will have to pull out all the stops to secure a victory.

Include Me Out

Arguably the best female Thoroughbred on the West Coast this year, Include Me Out won her first three starts in 2012 – all of which came in graded stakes. Not only did one of these triumphs include a romp in the Santa Margarita Invitational Stakes (GI), but two of these victories came at Santa Anita.

After finishing second in the Vanity Handicap (GI) at Hollywood Park, Include Me Out displayed her determination with a conquest of the Clement L. Hirsch Stakes (GI) at Del Mar prior running third in the Zenyatta. But this loss should not be held against her, as Include Me Out has been tremendously consistent this year and has plenty of experience over the dirt track at Santa Anita. Despite the fact that she will be facing three champions and several other brilliant fillies and mares, Include Me Out should not be ignored.

Grace Hall

One of the best two-year-old fillies in the nation last year, Grace Hall’s final start as a two-year-old resulted in a second-place finish behind My Miss Aurelia in the 2011 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Following a narrow loss in her 2012 debut, Grace Hall romped in the Gulfstream Oaks (GII) in preparation for the Kentucky Oaks (GI), in which she finished third.

Grace Hall did not race for two months after the Kentucky Oaks, but returned with an easy win in the Delaware Oaks (GII). However, the filly finished fifth as the beaten favorite in the Alabama, crossing the wire 31 lengths behind Questing. But she then reverted to her dominant winning ways, capturing the Indiana Oaks (GII) by 5 ¾ lengths.

Grace Hall is certainly among the best in her division, but when pitted against the very best, she has failed to turn in her best performance. She is undoubtedly a gifted athlete capable of tremendous performances, but I do not believe she will win the Ladies’ Classic.

The Ladies’ Classic certainly has a plethora of suspense and excitement surrounding it, offering one of the best fields of the entire 2012 Breeders’ Cup. I can envision many outcomes to this race, as it has gathered one of the best groups I have ever seen in a Breeders’ Cup event. I will give the nod to Royal Delta, but certainly would not be surprised to see Awesome Feather, My Miss Aurelia, or Questing enter the winner’s enclosure following this race. In addition, I am expecting good performances from Love and Pride and Include Me Out and certainly will not forget about Grace Hall. Regardless of how this race plays out, I am surely looking forward to it and will revel in the presence of these spectacular fillies.

Three-Year-Old Fillies Roundup

Girl power has been a recurrent theme in horse racing as of late. The sophomore filly division has been very interesting and competitive in the past few years, producing some of the most talented fillies in recent years, such as Blind Luck, Rachel Alexandra, Rags to Riches, and Ashado. The three-year-old filly class does not have a spectacular standout this year, but is a competitive division nonetheless.

Many things have changed since my last roundup of this division, which came at the end of January. Here is a look at several of the top three-year-old fillies in the nation:

Agave Kiss: This filly’s undefeated record was snapped in her seventh start, a dull fifth-place finish in the Victory Ride Stakes (GIII). A filly I have followed since her maiden victory, Agave Kiss is much better than she showed in the Victory Ride. However, with just one graded stakes victory to her credit, Agave Kiss will need to step it up to be competitive at the grade one level. She is, of course, a sprinter and not a filly suited for nine furlongs or the classic distance.

Believe You Can: The Kentucky Oaks (GI) winner turned in a rather disappointing third-place finish in the Mother Goose Stakes (GI), being defeated by 9 ¼ lengths. Believe You Can's most recent work was a one-mile work at Ellis Park in 1:38, which followed a five-furlong work at the same track.

Broadway’s Alibi: The runner-up in the Kentucky Oaks, Broadway’s Alibi won her first two starts of 2012 – both of which were graded stakes races – by a combined 20 ¼ lengths. However, she has not worked since June 10 and was shipped to Rood and Riddle Equine Hospital for examination and has not returned to the work tab.


Centre Court: This filly did not break her maiden until May, when she dominated a nine-furlong turf maiden at Churchill Downs. She then took two graded stakes: the Regret Stakes (GIII) and the Lake George Stakes (GII). Centre Court is certainly among the best grass fillies in the nation.

Contested: This filly was undefeated this year until she finished last in the Mother Goose. However, prior to that, she was brilliant, taking not only the Eight Belles Stakes (GIII), but the Acorn Stakes (GI). This filly appears to be more suited to distances shorter than nine furlongs. However, she is expected to contest in the Alabama Stakes (GI) at ten furlongs.

Disposablepleasure: A graded stakes-winning juvenile, Disposablepleasure is winless this year. However, she has finished in the money in three of her five starts this year. She finished a lackluster fourth in the Coaching Club American Oaks (GI) on July 21.

Dixie Strike: A stakes winner in Florida earlier this year who finished third in a graded stakes at Gulfstream and fifth in the Ashland Stakes (GI) at Keeneland, the Ontario-bred Dixie Strike found her groove in Canada. After winning the Selene Stakes (GIII), Dixie Strike was soundly defeated in the Woodbine Oaks but then finished a good third against males in the first leg of the Canadian Triple Crown, the Queen’s Plate Stakes. She then defeated males in the second jewel, the Prince of Wales Stakes. Perhaps Dixie Strike is more competitive in Canada than in the United States, but she is certainly a talented filly. She could start next in the Alabama.

Eden’s Moon: After breaking her maiden in January at Santa Anita, Eden’s Moon easily won the Las Virgenes Stakes (GI) before finishing third in the Santa Anita Oaks (GI). Following a last-place finish in the Kentucky Oaks, Eden’s Moon finished a nose short in the Hollywood Oaks (GII) over the synthetic. She made her turf debut on July 22, impressively winning the San Clemente Handicap (GII) at Del Mar. She seems to have found her niche on the grass.

Grace Hall: One of the top juvenile fillies last year, Grace Hall has never finished out of the money. A graded stakes winner at Gulfstream earlier this year, Grace Hall finished a good third in the Kentucky Oaks prior to returning on July 14 to effortlessly take the Delaware Oaks (GII). Though she does not have a grade one victory to her credit this year, I believe Grace Hall is among the top two of this division and she could prove that in the Alabama.

In Lingerie: A filly who has never finished out of the money, In Lingerie scored her first graded stakes victory in her graded stakes debut, dominating the Bourbonette Oaks (GIII) at Turfway in March. She then overcame great trouble to win the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (GIII) before finishing a decent third in the July 21 Coaching Club American Oaks.

Karlovy Vary: This filly broke through with a win in the Ashland, but then finished a poor twelfth in the Kentucky Oaks. However, Karlovy Vary then rebounded with an easy win in an allowance optional claiming over the Churchill Downs turf. She recently finished a decent third in the Nani Rose Stakes over Saratoga's turf course.

Lady of Shamrock: Recent winner of the American Oaks Stakes (GI), Lady of Shamrock has not finished off the board this year. A filly with an obvious affinity for Southern California turf courses, Lady of Shamrock could certainly have an advantage come the Breeders’ Cup. Obviously, this filly is more effective on turf than dirt, but I believe she is among the very best turf fillies in this division. She will likely race next in the Del Mar Oaks (GI).

My Miss Aurelia
Photo by Terri Cage

My Miss Aurelia: The champion juvenile filly from last year, My Miss Aurelia has not made a start yet this year due to a shin injury. However, she has been working steadily and is currently at Saratoga, preparing for a possible start in the Monmouth Oaks (GIII).

On Fire Baby: This filly was a top two-year-old last year, winning two graded stakes at Churchill. Following a good effort against males at Oaklawn, On Fire Baby won the Honeybee Stakes (GIII). However, she has been lackluster since then, finishing fifth in the Kentucky Oaks and fourth in the Acorn. She has had no workouts in the past sixty days.


Potesta: After finishing third in her debut in March, Potesta crushed a field in a mile and one-sixteenth maiden at Hollywood over the cushion track. Most recently, she took the Hollywood Oaks (GII) by a nose. She has plenty of learning to do, but is full of raw talent.

Questing: A filly who began her career in Great Britain, Questing took a while to get into the swing of things in the United States. She broke through with an easy victory in an allowance optional claiming at Belmont Park, following up that win with a green but dominant triumph in the Coaching Club American Oaks. She still has some growing up to do, but I believe Questing is among the best two in this division.

Reneesgotzip: A filly who has never competed outside of California, this daughter of City Zip won the Santa Ynez Stakes (GII) in January prior to finishing second in both the Las Virgenes and the Santa Anita Oaks. Her most recent start came in early May, when she won an allowance at Hollywood Park. She has not posted a work since May 21.

Stephanie’s Kitten: The winner of last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (GII) and Alcibiades Stakes (GI) was third in the Ashland prior to winning the ungraded Edgewood Stakes over the Churchill Downs turf course. She recently finished a close fourth in the Lake George, experiencing a tough trip.

Winding Way: A full sister to the brilliant two-year-old maiden winner Kauai Katie, this filly has proven to be as impressive as her sister. After winning a six-furlong maiden at Hollywood Park by nearly five lengths, the filly dominated a six and one-half-furlong allowance optional claiming by 7 ¼ lengths at Del Mar. She will need to show what she can do against graded stakes company, but this is certainly a remarkable filly.

Zo Impressive: This gray filly dominantly won her first two career starts at Gulfstream Park early this year, the latter of which she defeated In Lingerie in. Following a runner-up finish behind Grace Hall in the Gulfstream Oaks Stakes (GII) and another second-place finish in the Acorn, Zo Impressive took the Mother Goose. She then finished a sound second behind Questing in the Coaching Club American Oaks.

This division seems to be one that consists of horses that take turns beating each other. Grace Hall and Questing appear to be at the top, but Eden's Moon and Lady of Shamrock are certainly at the top of the turf three-year-old fillies, though Karlovy Vary and Stephanie's Kitten could continue to rebound. Horses like In Lingerie, Winding Way, and Zo Impressive should not be ignored, either. This division has some sorting out to do.

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2012 Kentucky Oaks Field Analysis

Most attention this week is on the Kentucky Derby, which is deemed the greatest race that is contested in the sport of kings. However, the fillies deserve their time in the limelight as well and they get that opportunity on the Friday before the Kentucky Derby in the Kentucky Oaks. The race, like the Run for the Roses, has been run for one hundred thirty-seven consecutive years and allows the victor to celebrate in the same winner’s enclosure reserved solely for only two annual races: the Derby and the Oaks. The winner of the Oaks is rewarded with an ample garland of stunning pink lilies, giving the Kentucky Oaks the nickname “the Run for the Lilies.”

In 2011, we saw the thrilling stretch run between Plum Pretty and St. Johns River that resulted in the Bob Baffert trainee standing before the Twin Spires with the blanket of lilies draped over her withers. Though Plum Pretty did not win divisional honors, she has gone on to be quite successful and is maintaining her grade one status. Past runnings of the Oaks have provided us with victories by many spectacular fillies, including the great racehorses Blind Luck, Rachel Alexandra, Rags to Riches, Silverbulletday, Open Mind, Princess Rooney, Davona Dale, Dark Mirage, Cicada, Real Delight, and Wistful.

The 2012 edition of the Kentucky Oaks has attracted a very competitive field of sophomore fillies despite the fact that superstars My Miss Aurelia, Princess Arabella, and Weemissfrankie were prevented from running due to injuries. There is no clear-cut standout, making the race a wide-open contest between very talented three-year-olds fillies ready to have their names etched into the history books.

Featured below are all of the fillies slated to run in the 138^th running of the Kentucky Oaks (GI), along with descriptions of their pedigrees, racing records, final preparations, and my opinions of them. The fillies are simply listed in post position order, though ironically, the first three fillies are not just ranked in post position order, but also in the order in which I like them.

#1. On Fire Baby: A half-sister to a filly who finished third in the Oaks five years ago in High Heels, On Fire Baby is by Smoke Glacken. Though that sire is most well-known for producing sprinters and milers, he has produced the successful distance runner Persistenly – who defeated Rachel Alexandra in a grade one race at ten furlongs. She is also from the same tail-female line as the grade one-winning runners Cuvee, Pyro, and Paddy O’Prado.

After she impressively broke her maiden at Ellis Park, On Fire Baby took a huge step up in class to finish a good second in the Darley Alcibiades Stakes (GI) at the tough Keeneland autumn meet prior to winning two graded stakes races at Churchill Downs, including a dominant victory in the Golden Rod Stakes (GII). She made her sophomore debut against colts, finishing a noteworthy third before she returned to her own gender to win the Fantasy Stakes (GII).

On Fire Baby has worked twice over Churchill Downs – a track at which she is undefeated – in preparation for the Kentucky Oaks. Both works were at the distance of seven furlongs, which I find very significant, as it prepares her for the nine-furlong expanse of the Oaks and keeps her from moving too briskly. Her most current work was a 1:27 flat drill in which she galloped over the Churchill dirt beautifully on the morning of April 27.

Due to her excellent pedigree, obvious racing brilliance, and perfect record at Churchill Downs, On Fire Baby is my top selection for the Kentucky Oaks. She faces very stiff competition, most notably Grace Hall, though other fillies pose big threats as well. Though some may not like her draw, I think On Fire Baby should find a very good position if she breaks well and also has the ability to rate off the pace. Her two victories and extra training time at Churchill Downs give her a huge advantage. For more on why On Fire Baby is a top Kentucky Oaks contender, please click here.

#2. Grace Hall: Sired by the Belmont Stakes (GI, 12F)-winning Empire Maker and out of a mare who is sired by Ezzoud, a multiple group one winner at long distances in England, Grace Hall is loaded with stamina and is sure to enjoy a route of ground. Out of a stakes-winning mare in France, Grace Hall is a direct descendant of Kentucky Oaks winner Nellie L.

One of the most accomplished horses in the race, Grace Hall won her first three starts by a combined 10 ½ lengths, including the Spinaway Stakes (GI) at Saratoga. She then finished a game second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (GI) behind eventual champion My Miss Aurelia to close out her two-year-old campaign. Following a neck defeat by longshot Yara in the Davona Dale Stakes (GII) at Gulfstream, Grace Hall returned to her winning ways in the Gulfstream Oaks Stakes (GII), setting off the pace before coasting to an impressive 6 ½-length victory.

I rather would have seen Grace Hall make her final preparations for the Kentucky Oaks at Churchill, but she has been training at Palm Meadows Training Center in Florida instead. Her most recent workout was a 52.10-second five-furlong work and though this time is unspectacular, it must be noted that it came over an off track.

Grace Hall is obviously a very gifted filly that is capable of running with the best. Between her talent and remarkable pedigree, she is one of my top two choices in the Oaks. For more on why Grace Hall is a top Kentucky Oaks contender, please click here.

#3. Summer Applause: A direct descendant of two Reines De Course Mares, Summer Applause is by rising sire Harlan’s Holiday and out of a half-sister to a graded stakes-winning millionaire. She features inbreeding that has been quite profitable, being inbred to such horses as Northern Dancer and Crimson Saint in her first five generations.

Since her debut, in which she finished sixth, Summer Applause has not finished out-of-the-money. She made her stakes debut this January at the Fair Grounds, pressing the pace before not being able to catch Believe You Can. She then defeated that filly in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (GIII) prior to falling just a head short to that rival in the Fair Grounds Oaks (GII).

The Bret Calhoun trainee has posted two very impressive works at Churchill Downs in preparation for the Oaks. Her final work came on April 20 when she posted a five-furlong bullet work in 59.60 seconds.

Summer Applause is bred for, has the racing talent for, and has worked very well for the Kentucky Oaks. I expect her to run a big race. For more on why Summer Applause is a top Kentucky Derby, please click here.

#4. Eden’s Moon: By the sire of eight grade one victors including herself in Malibu Moon and out of the Giant’s Causeway mare Eden’s Causeway, Eden’s Moon is obviously a nicely bred filly bred for distance. Her second dam is the spectacular Irish-bred Broodmare of the Year North of Eden, the producer of three grade one victors, including the champion Paradise Creek. She is also a direct descendant of the Reine De Course mare Sensibility, who herself is out of a Reine De Course mare. Sensibility is the dam of three stakes performers, including the champion Theatrical.

A lightly raced filly, Eden’s Moon started just once as a two-year-old, finishing second behind the future graded stakes-winning Reneesgotzip in December in a six-furlong maiden special weight over Hollywood Park’s cushion track. The Florida-bred Eden’s Moon landed on my radar with her 11 ½-length maiden victory at Santa Anita in January. Following that dominant win, she led from start to finish to triumph in the Las Virgenes Stakes (GI) before falling short in the Santa Anita Oaks (GI) after pressing the pace.

The day before stablemates Bodemeister and Jemima’s Pearl made their final preparations, Eden’s Moon completed a 1:14-flat six-furlong work at Churchill Downs.

Eden’s Moon is certainly talented, but she will have to be on the top of her game to give trainer Bob Baffert a repeat win in the Kentucky Oaks. Nonetheless, she is among the most endowed in this group.

#5. Hard Not to Like: By the brilliant up-and-coming sire Hard Spun and out of a black-type-winning track record setter at ten furlongs, Hard Not to Like descends from the same dam line as fellow contender Summer Applause, with the most notable name in that tail-female line being Iribelle.

Following two non-black-type wins over Woodbine’s turf course, Hard Not to Like finished fifth in the Natalma Stakes (GIII) on the same oval before defeating the colt in the Cup and Saucer Stakes at Woodbine. Following a decent fifth-place performance in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (GII), Hard Not to Like made her sophomore debut in the Central Bank Ashland Stakes (GI) at Keeneland, running a rallying second behind Karlovy Vary.

The Ontario-bred filly, though she has never contested on dirt, has been training on dirt at Payson Park and Woodbine. Her final preparation was a 1:01.60 five-furlong drill at Woodbine.

Despite having never run on dirt, Hard Not to Like’s pedigree suggests she will handle it. I believe we have not seen the best of her yet and though she may not be as ready for the Oaks as some other contenders, I would not be surprised to see her perform very well. For more on why Hard Not to Like is a top Kentucky Oaks contender, please click here.

#6. Broadway’s Alibi: By juvenile champion Vindication and out of the stakes winner at sprinting distances, Broadway Gold, Broadway’s Alibi has the breeding of a sprinter or miler. Despite the appearances of horses such as Seeking the Gold, Storm Cat, and the dam of Dialed In in her pedigree, Broadway’s Albi’s bloodlines do not give much hope for her ability to go nine furlongs. Her half-sister, the stakes-winning and graded stakes-placed R Gypsy Gold, despite being by Bernardini, has never been victorious beyond a mile and one-sixteenth.

Nonetheless, Broadway’s Alibi has proved to be among the most brilliant fillies of this group. Her only loss came in her first start, but since then, the Todd Pletcher trainee has been on a tear, winning four races by an astounding combined 32 ¼ lengths, including the Forward Gal Stakes (GII) at seven furlongs and the Comely Stakes (GIII) at one mile. She has set the pace in each of these victories, which may be to her disadvantage in the Oaks.

She made her final preparation at Palm Meadows Training Center in Florida, completing a half-mile in 48.45. I would have preferred for her to have her last breeze at Churchill Downs.

I believe that the nine-furlong distance may prove to be too much for Broadway’s Alibi, despite the fact that she is absolutely brilliant.

#7. Sacristy: A daughter of A.P. Indy’s successful son Pulpit and the stakes-placed Christie’s Treasure, Sacristy is a direct descendant of Fool-Me-Not, the dam of the Kentucky Derby-winning champion Foolish Pleasure. She descends from the same tail-female line as the graded stakes-winning sire Valid Expectations – as well as his full siblings, the graded stakes-winning Little Sister and the stakes-winning and graded stakes-placed Littleepectations – and the grade one-winning Purge.

Following two runner-up finishes over the synthetic, Sacristy broke her maiden over the dirt at Churchill Downs in an impressive 6 ¾ lengths to end her two-year-old campaign. Her sophomore debut was a 1 ¾-length victory in the Old Hat Stakes (GIII) at Gulfstream Park. Though her next two starts were losses, they were in-the-money finishes in graded stakes races. However, she was defeated by at least three lengths in both, and in one of those losses, she was trounced by fellow Oaks contender Broadway’s Alibi.

Sacristy made her final preparation for the Oaks on April 27, going seven furlongs in 1:29. I like that she worked a longer distances than most horses, as it readies her for the nine-furlong distance, keeps her fitter, and prevents her from working too briskly.

Sacristy is undeniably gifted, but she may be a bit outclassed here. Nonetheless, a nice performance in the Run for the Lilies would not be shocking.

#8. Jemima’s Pearl: One of Bob Baffert’s two charges in this year’s Oaks, Jemima’s Pearl is certainly the lesser known of the two. By the elite sire Distorted Humor and out of the group two-winning mare Jemima, this filly is a half-sister to the multiple stakes winner at seven furlongs and the graded stakes-placed middle-distance horse Pinckney Hill.

The bay filly began her career in Ireland, breaking her maiden in her fourth start. Following a sixth-place finish in the Star Appeal Stakes at Dundalk, the bay filly returned to the country in which she was born. Her United States debut resulted in a nose victory in an allowance optional claiming at Santa Anita, which came before her third-place finish behind stablemate Mamma’s Kimbo and Amie’s Dini in the Fantasy Stakes (GII).

Jemima’s Pearl worked in company with leading Derby candidate Bodemeister on Sunday morning at Churchill Downs, serving as the gifted colt’s target for the second week in a row. She was outworked by the colt, but that was likely the plan and Bodemeister is, after all, one of the leading contenders for the Derby. She still turned in a good work, completing five furlongs in 1:00.40.

The Kentucky Oaks will be a tough mission for Jemima’s Pearl and I do not believe she is quite ready for it, despite the fact that she is from a strong pedigree and barn.  She has not shown as much as many of the other fillies and appears to be outclassed.

#9. Believe You Can: Competing for the connections of 2008 Oaks victor Proud Spell, Believe You Can is also by the same sire as the 2008 Champion Three-Year-Old Filly. This filly is inbred to many influential horses, including Buckpasser, Natalma, Nearctic, and Tom Fool. However, her broodmare sire, El Prado, has been primarily successful with sprinters as a damsire, with foals out of his daughters winning at an average distance of about seven furlongs. He is the damsire, after all, of the talented sprinters Hilda’s Passion and Essence Hit Man.

Believe You Can broke her maiden in her second start and followed up that victory with a dominant allowance optional claiming win at Delaware Park. After winning the Tempted Stakes (GIII) at Belmont, she finished a disappointing sixth in the Pocahontas Stakes (GII) behind On Fire Baby. At the Fair Grounds this year, Believe You Can galloped to a stakes win ahead of Summer Applause, a fourth-place finish in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (GIII) behind Summer Applause, and a victory in the Fair Grounds Oaks (GII) ahead of Summer Applause.

The Larry Jones trainee has had two works at Churchill Downs in preparation for the Oaks, posting a pair of quick five-furlong works. Her final preparation was a blistering five-furlong work on Sunday, in which the official clocking was 58.40, though some timed her in an even faster time. It is a bit worrisome that she completed such a rapid work, but Rachel Alexandra also posted a very quick time before her dominating Oaks win.

Believe You Can is by all means talented, but will need to run the best race of her career to earn the garland of lilies. For more on why Believe You Can is a top Kentucky Oaks contender, please click here.

#10. And Why Not: With the same trainer and rider combination as the very gifted Derby contender Union Rags, And Why Not could kick off a tremendous weekend for her connections. I find this filly to have one of the most beautifully knitted pedigrees you could study. Her sire is the brilliant stallion Street Cry, who is the sire of the great Zenyatta, as well as the Derby-winning champion Street Sense and an astounding eleven more group or grade one victors. As if that is not enough stallion power, And Why Not’s broodmare sire is the great A.P. Indy. The bottom side of her pedigree is also full of influential stallions, including Storm Cat, Alydar, and Never Bend. She is also a a direct descendant of three Reine De Course mares, including the 1983 Broodmare of the Year, Courtly Dee, who sired an incredible seven graded stakes winners, including the champion Althea, as well as two graded stakes-placed horses.

And Why Not, a $775,000 yearling purchase, debuted in August as a juvenile at Saratoga, dominantly winning a six and one-half-furlong maiden special weight after rallying from off the pace. Following a third-place finish behind fellow Oaks contender Grace Hall in the Spinaway Stakes (GI), And Why Not finished a disappointing sixth over Keeneland’s Polytrack in the Darley Alicibiades Stakes (GI). She rebounded with a runner-up performance behind On Fire Baby – also another Oaks contender – in the Pocahontas Stakes (GII) at Churchill Downs to conclude her juvenile career. And Why Not’s only start this year was an extremely unsatisfactory seventh-place finish in the Gulfstream Oaks Stakes (GII) at the end of March.

Despite her uninspiring 2012 racing performance, this Michael Matz trainee has been training well. Her final work for the Oaks at Churchill Downs came on Saturday, April 28, when she posted the fastest of forty-seven works at the four-furlong distance when she completed her breeze in 46.80 seconds.

Though her only start this year was quite discouraging, this regally bred filly is entering the Kentucky Oaks off a string of good works. She faces a tall task in the Run for the Lilies, but Michael Matz has conditioned her well and if she has anything going for her besides her training, it’s her pedigree.

#11. Karlovy Vary: A daughter of the recently deceased, great sire Dynaformer, a win by Karlovy Vary in the Kentucky Oaks would certainly be emotional. Her bloodlines appear to provide her with much stamina and notably, she is a direct descendant of the great mare Bayou.

Karlovy Vary broke her maiden in her second start and following two seventh-place finishes, one of which came in the Golden Rod Stakes (GII) at Churchill Downs behind On Fire Baby, the Alex Campbell homebred won a turf allowance optional claiming at Gulfstream before scoring in the Central Bank Ashland Stakes (GI).

Her final preparation came on Saturday, April 28 at Churchill Downs when she completed five furlongs in 1:01.20, covering the ground well.

Though her only start on dirt was a disappointing finish over the track that she will race on in the Kentucky Oaks, this filly has greatly improved since then and is coming into her own. She certainly will have no problem with the distance, but the race for Karlovy Vary is a matter of whether she has an affinity for the surface or not. A good race by her would not be a shock in the least, but she will have to continue her improvement. For more on why Karlovy Vary is a top Kentucky Oaks contender, please click here.

#12. Colonial Empress: The Empire Maker/Pleasant Colony cross this D. Wayne Lukas trainee is bred on hints that she will love a stretch-out in distance. Notably, she is a half-sister to the graded stakes-winning turf horse Pleasant Strike and a direct descendant of the Hall of Fame mare Gallorette.

Interestingly, this filly has only started three times, has never won, and has never competed in anything other than a stakes race. She debuted this February in the Martha Washington Stakes at Oaklawn, finishing fourth. Colonial Empress then ran a decent third in the Honeybee Stakes (GIII) at the same Hot Springs track before running last in the Fair Grounds Oaks (GII).

She has turned in two workouts at Churchill Downs in preparation for the Kentucky Oaks, her final work coming in a 48.40-second half-mile work.

Colonial Empress appears to be better in the mornings than the afternoons and I would be quite surprised to see her finish at the top in the Oaks.

#13. Amie’s Dini: Though her sire, Bandini, is relatively unknown, he should aid her in the Oaks’ distance of nine furlongs, as he was a grade one winner at that distance. A descendant of a string of Claiborne Farm mares and two Reine De Course mares, Amie’s Dini has a solid pedigree, though it may not be as flamboyant as the bloodlines of other Oaks entrants. Though Amie’s Dini’s pedigree does not completely verify her ability to get nine furlongs, there are plenty of hints that she will be able to handle the distance.

Amie’s Dini debuted in a much less flashy way than the other contenders, winning a maiden claiming at Remington Park. Following two good allowance optional claiming performances at Churchill Downs, including a victory, Amie’s Dini made her sophomore debut at Oaklawn Park, finishing a noteworthy second behind the then-undefeated Now I Know in the Dixie Belle Stakes. She then handed Now I Know her first defeat in the other filly’s final race, scoring in the Martha Washington Stakes by 1 ¾ lengths after pressing the pace. Remaining at Oaklawn Park, Amie’s Dini turned in a pair of notable runner-up finishes in graded stakes races, and proved to be clearly second best in those races.

With a win at Churchill Downs already to her credit, Amie’s Dini already has very significant experience at the Louisville, Kentucky track. She has also turned in two works over the dirt surface there in preparation for the Oaks, her final work coming on Saturday, April 28 when she breezed five furlongs in an unimpressive 1:05.40.

Amie’s Dini, though a talented filly, seems to be outclassed in this group.

#14. Yara: By the relatively unknown stallion Put It Back and out of a daughter of Gilded Time, Yara is not among the most royally bred of Kentucky Oaks entrants. She is, however, a direct descendant of the grade one-winning Reine De Course mare Happy Mood, who produced the granddam of the Canadian Triple Crown-winning and Hall of Fame member With Approval and his Hall of Fame-inducted half-brother, the Belmont Stakes (GI)-winning Touch Gold.

Yara’s first six races formed a pattern: fourth, then first, then fourth, then first, then fourth, and then first. Two of those wins were stakes victories, one of which came in the Davona Dale Stakes (GII) over Grace Hall. Following that triumph, Yara broke the pattern by finishing a distant fifth in the Gulfstream Oaks Stakes (GII).

Though it’s encouraging that her final work came at Churchill Downs, it was quite a relatively unsatisfactory work. It was a slow final time of 51 seconds flat for a half-mile and she changed leads to the incorrect lead in the stretch. She is not the best work horse, but the final preparation did not help her case in the Oaks.

Yara is an endowed filly, but I don’t think she will win the Kentucky Oaks, as she seems to be outshone by many of her competitors.

Also Eligible:

#15. Oaks Lily: No other filly is as fittingly named as Oaks Lily, who was clearly named for this race since no name in her immediate family hints at that name. By the multiple graded stakes winner at nine furlongs, Badge of Silver, and out of a half-sister to a multiple stakes victor at one mile or longer, Oaks Lily is confirmed for the nine-furlong distance of the Kentucky Oaks.

Oddly, Oaks Lily is coming off a win in a maiden special weight. In fact, all but one of her starts have come in a maiden special weight. The only race that she has contested in that was not a maiden was the OBS Championship Stakes for fillies in March, in which she finished second. She has only finished in the money in half of her starts.

Her final work came on Friday, April 27 at Churchill Downs – a track at which she finished eleventh in her only start there. She completed a half-mile in 49.40 seconds.

I do not expect for Oaks Lily to perform well in the race for which she is named, as she is outclassed by this group. More than likely, however, she will not draw in.

My top selection is On Fire Baby, though it is a close call between her and Grace Hall. I also expect for Summer Applause to run a very good race. Of course, since it is a tough field, I believe horses such as Karlovy Vary, Hard Not to Like, and Eden’s Moon should not be ignored, either. No filly has yet stamped herself at the top of this class, but following the Run for the Lilies, the sophomore fillies picture should be much clearer. And should the winner of the Kentucky Oaks continue to be successful this year, she could very well become the fifth victor of the Oaks to be voted Champion Three-Year-Old Filly since 2007. 

Plum Pretty, winner of the 2011 Kentucky Oaks
Photo: Terri Cage

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Oaks Contender: Grace Hall

With the defections of My Miss Aurelia and Weemissfrankie, Grace Hall became the sole top finisher of the 2011 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (GI) to remain on the Kentucky Oaks (GI) trail. In fact, for many, she is the top contender for the race that is labeled as the Kentucky Derby (GI)’s sister.

Grace Hall was a brilliant juvenile, winning her first three starts by a total 10 ½ lengths. She, like Union Rags, debuted at Delaware Park without even going off favored before traveling to Saratoga for a graded stakes race. This graded stakes was the prestigious Spinaway Stakes (GI), in which the Tony Dutrow trainee edged away to triumph by 1 ¾ lengths. She then returned to Delaware Park for her final prep for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, effortlessly winning the ungraded Blue Hen Stakes by 5 ¾ lengths.

In the Juvenile Fillies, Grace Hall ran into the tremendously talented My Miss Aurelia and could not keep up with the eventual champion, finishing three lengths behind the Stonestreet homebred. However, she was six lengths clear of the dual grade one-winning Weemissfrankie and left behind twelve fillies.

Grace Hall made her much-anticipated sophomore debut in the Davona Dale Stakes (GII) at Gulfstream Park, but was beaten a neck by Yara, a 64-1 longshot. Grace Hall ran gamely but simply could not outduel Yara. She avenged the loss next out in the Gulfstream Oaks Stakes (GII), settling off the pace before striking to the lead under Javier Castellano to score by a dominant 6 ½ lengths. Behind her were seven other fillies, including Yara and the highly-touted Zo Impressive.

With her Gulfstream Oaks victory, Grace Hall verified that she will have no issue with the nine-furlong distance of the Kentucky Oaks, as the Gulfstream Oaks shares the same mile and one-eighth distance. Her pedigree also suggests that she will not have a problem with the distance of the Oaks, as she is by Empire Maker and out of an Ezzoud mare.

Empire Maker, winner of the 2003 Belmont Stakes (GI, 12F), is also the sire of the Juddmonte Spinster Stakes (GI, 9F) winners Acoma and Mushka, the Personal Ensign Stakes (GI, 10F)-winning Icon Project, the Santa Anita Derby (GI, 9F)-winning and Kentucky Derby (GI, 10F) runner-up Pioneerof the Nile, and the Alabama Stakes (GI, 10F)- and Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic (GI, 9F)-winning Royal Delta. The stallion, who is inbred 4 X 3 to the Man O’ War sire line descendant, In Reality, also exhibits two crosses of Aspidistra, Buckpasser, Native Dancer, and Rough’n Tumble in the first five generations of his pedigree. When bred to Grace Hall’s dam, Season’s Greetings, the two form a 4 X 3 cross of Mr. Prospector, a 4 X 5 cross of Northern Dancer, and a 4 X 5 cross of a Reine De Course mare.

Season’s Greetings, an Irish-bred by a victor of multiple prestigious group ones, was a stakes winner in France owned by Sheikh Mohammed Al Maktoum. This, of course, makes Grace Hall bred by Darley. The top side of Season’s Greeting’s pedigree is primarily European while the bottom side is chiefly American. Through her dam, Grace Hall is a direct descendant of a string of Reine De Course mares from Calumet Farm that begins with her seventh dam, Nellie Flag, a daughter of the 1924 Champion Three-Year-Old Filly Nellie Morse. Nellie Flag was in turn a champion, garnering the title of Champion Two-Year-Old Filly in 1934. Nellie Flag produced three black-type winners, including a champion and the Kentucky Oaks-winning Nellie L, Grace Hall’s sixth dam. Nellie L continued this strong dam line by producing Comely Nell, the dam of the champion Bold Forbes.

Grace Hall has a valid chance at repeating the feat of her sixth dam, Nellie L. Not only is she wonderfully bred for the Kentucky Oaks, but she has proved that she possesses remarkable racing talent. It would be no surprise to see Grace Hall standing before the Twin Spires with a blanket of beautiful lilies draped over her withers. 


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Sophomore Fillies Roundup

The trend for the past several years in racing has been girl power. Racing fans have enjoyed watching Black Caviar, Blind Luck, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Rags to Riches, Rachel Alexandra, Zenyatta, and many others. It looks as if this trend will continue, as 2011 Horse of the Year Havre de Grace is returning, 2011 Champion Three-Year-Old Filly Royal Delta is preparing for a great year that should include the Dubai World Cup (GI), and 2010 Champion Two-Year-Old Filly Awesome Feather looks to remain perfect after her dominating win in the Florida Sunshine Millions Distaff.

But what about the three-year-old fillies of 2012? Two of the top newly-turned three-year-old fillies – 2011 Champion Two-Year-Old Filly My Miss Aurelia and two-time grade one-winning Weemissfrankie – are out due to injuries. We must turn our attention to other sophomore fillies, including the ones listed below.

Agave Kiss: She has raced solely in New York and only one of her starts has not been against restricted company. However, she has been very dominant. Her first two starts – a state-bred maiden special weight at Belmont and a state-bred allowance at Aqueduct – were won by a combined winning margin of 16 ¾ lengths. Agave Kiss’ initial start against open company came in the Ruthless Stakes at Aqueduct, which she won by 3 ¼ lengths. She is by Lion Heart – winner of the Hollywood Futurity (GI, 8.5F) and the Haskell Invitational Handicap (GI, 9F) and runner-up in the Kentucky Derby (GI, 10F) – and out of the one-mile Delta Princess Stakes winner and Santa Ysabel Stakes (GIII, 8.5) runner-up, Salty Romance. She is inbred 5 X 5 to both Northern Dancer and Raise a Native. Her connections may not plan to run her much outside of New York, but I feel that it would be very exciting to see her race outside of the Big Apple. For more on Agave Kiss, please read my articles here and here.

Applauding: One of the most impressive fillies on this list, Applauding caused jaws to drop when she debuted at Keeneland in October. In that race, she sat off the pace before sweeping to the lead as the field neared the top of the stretch. She never looked back from there, winning the race by 9 lengths in a track record time of 1:07.76 for six furlongs. She made her second start in early December at the Fair Grounds in a six-furlong first-level allowance. After leading from start to finish, Applauding crossed the wire six lengths in front. She was entered in the Silverbulletday Stakes at the Fair Grounds for January 21, but was scratched due to a small bout of colic. By an A.P. Indy son in Congrats and out of a Forestry mare, Applauding definitely has spectacular bloodlines. She is on track for the Fair Grounds Oaks (GII) on March 31.

Broadway’s Alibi: This filly made her first two starts in maiden special weights at Delaware Park, finishing second by a length in her debut before dominating her second start by seven lengths. She did not start for another three months, when she triumphed by five lengths in a six and one-half-furlong allowance optional claiming at Gulfstream Park. She then tried graded stakes company in the seven-furlong Forward Gal Stakes (GII) at Gulfstream on January 29, bounding home to win by an astounding 16 ¾ lengths over a sloppy track. There is doubt in her ability to stretch out, as her sire, Vindication, has primarily been a sire of sprinters and her dam, the graded stakes-winning Strawberry Reason, only won at the distance of a mile and one-sixteenth. Perhaps routing will not be to her liking, but I expect that Broadway’s Alibi will continue to be impressive.

Eden’s Moon: In mid-December, Eden’s Moon made her debut at Hollywood Park, finishing 2 ¼ lengths behind the future Santa Ynez Stakes (GII) winner, Reneesgotzip. She made her first three-year-old start three weeks later, leading from start to finish and winning by an outstanding 11 ½ lengths. By a son of A.P. Indy in Malibu Moon and out of a Giant’s Causeway mare, her pedigree suggests that she will have no trouble with routing. It also helps that her fifth dam – Pange – is a Reine De Course mare who produced the champion Prince Royal II and is the granddam of the ill-fated but great Landaluce. Trainer Bob Baffert scratched her from the Santa Ysabel Stakes (GIII) on January 28.

Grace Hall: Prior to her second-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (GI), Grace Hall was undefeated. However, being defeated by My Miss Aurelia was not a disgrace. Now that My Miss Aurelia is out, Grace Hall finds herself at the top of many lists as far as sophomore fillies are concerned. After a three-length maiden victory at Delaware Park, she traveled to Saratoga to take the Spinaway Stakes (GI) by nearly two lengths. She then returned to Delaware for her final win of 2011: an effortless victory in the Blue Hen Stakes. Grace Hall is by the Belmont Stakes-winning Empire Maker and out of the Irish-bred stakes-winning mare Season’s Greetings. Tracing back to horses such as Seattle Slew, Riva Ridge, and the Reine De Course mare Comely Nell, it doesn’t seem as if long distances will be a problem for Grace Hall. Trainer Tony Dutrow is preparing her for a start in the Davona Dale Stakes (GII) at Gulfstream on February 25.

Killer Graces: Following a nose defeat in her maiden special weight debut, Killer Graces captured two ungraded stakes at Hollywood Park. After two disappointing finishes in Del Mar graded stakes races, the chestnut filly finished second in a pair of ungraded stakes. She then garnered her first grade one victory in the Hollywood Starlet Stakes (GI), in which her smooth stride carried her to a half-length victory. Her most recent start came on January 28 in the Santa Ysabel Stakes (GIII) and when the winner got an easy lead, it made it difficult for Killer Graces to keep up, which led to her second-place finish. By the multiple grade one-winning Congaree and out of an Old Trieste mare, Killer Graces definitely has plenty of speed and stamina in her pedigree. Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer is preparing her for a start in the Las Virgenes Stakes (GI) at Santa Anita on March 3.

Now I Know: Undefeated in six starts, Now I Know won her first four starts at Remington Park by a combined 17 ½ lengths. One of those wins was a 9 ¼-length victory in the state-bred Oklahoma Classics Lassie Stakes. After that win, she made her first start outside of Oklahoma at Delta Downs in the Delta Downs Princess Stakes (GIII), which she won by 4 lengths. She made her sophomore debut on January 14 in the Dixie Belle Stakes at Oaklawn Park, holding off Amie’s Dini to win by 1 ¼ lengths. By a son of Storm Cat in the 2002 Kentucky Cup Classic Handicap (GII, 9F) winner Pure Prize and out of a Maria’s Mon mare in Now U Know, Now I Know definitely has an impressive pedigree. She is also very impressive on the track and is pointing toward the Martha Washington Stakes – a race that has been won by the likes of Eight Belles and Rachel Alexandra – at Oaklawn Park on February 11 for trainer Donnie K. Von Hemel, who won the race in 2006 with Brownie Points.

Princess Arabella: She has only started once, but she was incredibly impressive in that start. On New Year’s Eve, the Bob Baffert trainee debuted at Santa Anita in a six-furlong maiden special weight. After a poor break from the gate, Princess Arabella gained ground on the leaders with every stride, never decelerating. With a breathtaking move on the outside on the far turn, the chestnut filly swept to the lead with ease under very slight urging from Martin Garcia. By the Haskell winner Any Given Saturday and out of a Thunder Gulch mare, Princess Arabella’s pedigree hints that she will handle a stretch out in distance. She has many tests to pass, but she seems to have the sheer talent and pedigree that will allow her to pass with flying colors.

Reneesgotzip: After soundly defeating Eden’s Moon in her debut, Reneesgotzip tried graded stakes company in her three-year-old debut. On January 15, the chestnut filly dominated the Santa Ynez Stakes (GII) by 7 ¾ lengths, leading from start to finish to defeat five other fillies. She is by City Zip and out of a Distorted Humor mare and is inbred 3 X 4 to Northern Dancer. Trainer Peter Miller is pointing her towards the Las Virgenes Stakes (GI) at Santa Anita on March 3.

Table Three Ten: After her impressive victory in her debut at the Fair Grounds in November, this Cobra Farm-bred filly was purchased by Team Valor. She made her first start for Team Valor and trainer Graham Motion under John Velazquez – the same connections that teamed up to win the 2011 Kentucky Derby – on January 27 in an allowance race at Gulfstream. Sent off as the heavy favorite, she won the six and one-half-furlong race by 1 ¾ lengths. She is by El Prado and out of a stakes-place More Than Ready mare. She traces back to the influential Northern Dancer three times throughout her pedigree and is inbred 5 X 5 to Hail to Reason and 4 X 5 to Special. Her next start is unknown.

Twelve Folds: After two tough losses – one by a nose and one by a head – in her first two starts, Twelve Folds finally got to show the world what she was made of. In a five and one-half California-bred maiden special weight, she won by 8 ¼ lengths. Only one of her starts has been against open company, but she still performed well, finishing second by a head. By a young son of Indian Charlie in Cindago and out of a Tiger Ridge mare, Twelve Folds’ pedigree is not exactly as spectacular as some of the other fillies on this list. However, her fourth dam, Bali Babe, is the dam of 1999 Horse of the Year Charismatic and her sixth dam, Grass Shack, is a Reine De Course mare.

Willa B Awesome: The most heavily raced filly on this list, Willa B Awesome has started ten times. Three of those starts have resulted in victories, two of which were in stakes races. After a win against state-bred maidens in her debut at Hollywood Park, she tried open company in the Cinderella Stakes, finishing third behind the future grade one-winning Killer Graces. Following three unsuccessful stakes tries – two state-bred stakes and one graded stakes – at Del Mar, trainer Walther Solis shipped her to Fairplex Park for the Barrets Debutante Stakes, in which she won by nearly three lengths. After three in-the-money finishes in stakes races – two of which were against California-breds, Willa B Awesome tried graded stakes company in the Santa Ysabel Stakes (GIII) on January 28. She got in easy lead in that race and therefore was able to score by 3 ½ lengths. By a Coronado’s Quest son in Awesome Gambler, most of the appeal in Willa B Awesome’s pedigree is on her sire’s side. However, her fifth dam, Belthazar, is a Reine De Course mare and the final foal sired by the 1937 Triple Crown winner War Admiral. Willa B Awesome will need to continue to prove herself against open company, but she is without a doubt a talented filly.


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Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies

It’s the classic rivalry of East vs. West. It’s the trend of girl power and underdogs. It’s the race full of stories that will tug at your heart. It’s horse racing at its best. It’s the 2011 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and it's going to be one of the best Breeders’ Cup races of the weekend.

Here are my top four picks for the Juvenile Fillies:

1. Weemissfrankie: Maybe I’m partial because I’ve followed her since her maiden and she greatly resembles my horse’s looks and personality, but this filly has impressed me tremendously. In the post parade for her maiden race, I noticed how impeccable her conformation was. She had a beautiful neck that was long, thin and tied in perfectly at her shoulder. Her chestnut legs were strong, possessing short cannon bones and pasterns that were angled correctly. Though her back was hidden by the saddle, I have seen photographs of her without it on and have noticed that it is strong and short, just as it should be. Her hip is powerful and muscled just like the rest of her. This all adds up to her beautiful, fluent stride that covers much ground.

After her maiden win, Weemissfrankie was victorious in the Del Mar Debutante (GI), crossing the wire over a length in front of Self Preservation. In her final start before the Breeders’ Cup, the Oak Leaf Stakes (GI), she was still third at the sixteenth pole in her first try over a dirt surface. Suddenly, she hit another gear and flew past Candrea. Once she was even with the Bob Baffert trainee, Rafeal Bejarano hand-rode her to the wire. Her speed figures may be lower than other top fillies, but in her three starts, she has come home very quickly. Her final eighth of a mile in her first two starts was 12 ^1/5 seconds and her final sixteenth of her third start was 6 ^2/5 seconds. In fact, she broke the Del Mar track record for five furlongs in her debut.

On Saturday, the daughter of Sunriver turned in her latest work. Traveling five furlongs over the Santa Anita dirt track, she effortlessly worked 59.40. It was very similar to her work on October 15, in which she readily worked a half-mile in 46.60. According to an HRTV Diary, those around her are very happy with how she’s doing.

Weemissfrankie has a story that will pull on your heart strings. Her name may seem silly, but if you divide it into three words, leaving out a letter, you will see that it has a very special message: We miss Frankie. The stunning chestnut filly, owned by a partnership, is named after Frank Alesia, who had been part of the group of owners with his wife, Sharon. In addition to the touching factor of her namesake, Weemissfrankie is part of just two crops of her late sire, Sunriver, who died in August of 2009 at the tender age of six. It doesn’t end there, as she provided her trainer, Peter Eurton, with his first graded stakes win when Weemissfrankie won the Debutante and is now taking him to the Breeders’ Cup. Just imagine how many hearts it would touch if this filly won the Juvenile Fillies. I believe she has a good chance to do so.

2. My Miss Aurelia: I’ve followed this filly since her maiden as well and she has quickly become the most highly regarded two-year-old filly in the nation. A daughter of stakes-winning My Miss Storm Cat, the bay daughter of Smart Strike is a half-sister to stakes-placed Albergatti. The filly is a homebred for Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC.

Prior to her maiden, I noticed that My Miss Aurelia had the build of a racehorse. She had quality muscling that was very distinct. Her heart girth was deep, indicating that she had a large set of lungs that would allow her to breathe well. In addition, she had a perfect neck that shined like rich mahogany.

In her maiden, My Miss Aurelia gamely won by a length at Saratoga. She made her next start in the Adirondack Stakes (GII), also at Saratoga. She battled with Millonreasonswhy down the stretch, prevailing by a neck. The two finished nearly fifteen lengths ahead of the third place-finisher, Bellacourt, who won the Joseph A. Gimma Stakes at Belmont on Saturday.

In her final prep race for the Breeders’ Cup, My Miss Aurelia easily won the Frizette Stakes (GI) at Belmont Park by 5 ½ lengths in an impressive final time of 1:35.22 for a mile. She can obviously come home well, but she will also provide a good pace for Weemissfrankie to run at in the Juvenile Fillies.

My Miss Aurelia also comes with a touching story. She’s owned by Stonestreet Stables and George Bolton. We all know that Jess Jackson of Stonestreet Stables passed away in April, which automatically makes one want to see any Stonestreet horse do well. It gets even more emotional from there. Jess Jackson named the filly after George Bolton’s mother not long before his death. It would be wonderful for the filly’s connections to be triumphant at the Breeders’ Cup, in which she will likely be the top betting choice. If she can last up front, she will be dangerous to catch in the stretch.

3. Grace Hall: My top three fillies are all undefeated in three starts. Grace Hall has won all of her races by a total of 10 ½ lengths. After a three-length maiden victory at Delaware Park, Grace Hall impressively won the Spinaway Stakes (GI) at Saratoga. She then returned to Delaware Park for the Blue Hen Stakes, which she won without any effort at all, crossing the wire in front by 5 ¾ lengths.

She is training up to the Breeders’ Cup very well, having worked a half-mile in 48 seconds flat at Delaware Park on Saturday. A week earlier, she recorded a bullet half-mile in 47.20. The daughter of stakes-winning Season’s Greetings must have her connections feeling pretty confident in their filly that is built like a tank. I don't know that she quite has the class of my top two, but I don't think we've seen the best of her yet.

4. Awesome Belle: How can you forget Awesome Feather’s stirring win in the Juvenile Fillies last year? From Awesome Feather’s beginnings comes Awesome Belle. Awesome of Course is the sire of both fillies, who were both bred by Jacks or Better Farm Inc. Awesome Feather came into the Breeders’ Cup owned by Jacks or Better Farm and trained by Stanley Gold, as will Awesome Belle. Awesome Feather entered the Juvenile Fillies with a romp in the Florida Stallion My Dear Girl Stakes, as will Awesome Belle.

However, “Belle” is not coming into the Breeders’ Cup with an undefeated record like “Feather” did. Awesome Belle didn’t win her debut, but rather broke her maiden in her second start. She then finished second to stablemate Redbud Road in the J J’sdream Stakes, which Awesome Feather had won in 2010 prior to sweeping the Florida Stallion Stakes series. After her encouraging second in that race, Awesome Belle finished a disappointing fifth to Redbud Road in the Florida Stallion Desert Vixen Stakes. In her next start, she had a rough trip and finished third behind Queen Drama and Redbud Road.

Then came her defining moment. Leading the entire way, Awesome Belle dominated the My Dear Girl Stakes, winning by 7 ½ lengths. It is not expected by many that she will put in a performance like Awesome Feather did in the Juvenile Fillies, but it is quite remarkable that her connections have a chance to win back-to-back runnings of the race with a similar filly.

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