Three-Year-Old Fillies Roundup

Girl power has been a recurrent theme in horse racing as of late. The sophomore filly division has been very interesting and competitive in the past few years, producing some of the most talented fillies in recent years, such as Blind Luck, Rachel Alexandra, Rags to Riches, and Ashado. The three-year-old filly class does not have a spectacular standout this year, but is a competitive division nonetheless.

Many things have changed since my last roundup of this division, which came at the end of January. Here is a look at several of the top three-year-old fillies in the nation:

Agave Kiss: This filly’s undefeated record was snapped in her seventh start, a dull fifth-place finish in the Victory Ride Stakes (GIII). A filly I have followed since her maiden victory, Agave Kiss is much better than she showed in the Victory Ride. However, with just one graded stakes victory to her credit, Agave Kiss will need to step it up to be competitive at the grade one level. She is, of course, a sprinter and not a filly suited for nine furlongs or the classic distance.

Believe You Can: The Kentucky Oaks (GI) winner turned in a rather disappointing third-place finish in the Mother Goose Stakes (GI), being defeated by 9 ¼ lengths. Believe You Can's most recent work was a one-mile work at Ellis Park in 1:38, which followed a five-furlong work at the same track.

Broadway’s Alibi: The runner-up in the Kentucky Oaks, Broadway’s Alibi won her first two starts of 2012 – both of which were graded stakes races – by a combined 20 ¼ lengths. However, she has not worked since June 10 and was shipped to Rood and Riddle Equine Hospital for examination and has not returned to the work tab.


Centre Court: This filly did not break her maiden until May, when she dominated a nine-furlong turf maiden at Churchill Downs. She then took two graded stakes: the Regret Stakes (GIII) and the Lake George Stakes (GII). Centre Court is certainly among the best grass fillies in the nation.

Contested: This filly was undefeated this year until she finished last in the Mother Goose. However, prior to that, she was brilliant, taking not only the Eight Belles Stakes (GIII), but the Acorn Stakes (GI). This filly appears to be more suited to distances shorter than nine furlongs. However, she is expected to contest in the Alabama Stakes (GI) at ten furlongs.

Disposablepleasure: A graded stakes-winning juvenile, Disposablepleasure is winless this year. However, she has finished in the money in three of her five starts this year. She finished a lackluster fourth in the Coaching Club American Oaks (GI) on July 21.

Dixie Strike: A stakes winner in Florida earlier this year who finished third in a graded stakes at Gulfstream and fifth in the Ashland Stakes (GI) at Keeneland, the Ontario-bred Dixie Strike found her groove in Canada. After winning the Selene Stakes (GIII), Dixie Strike was soundly defeated in the Woodbine Oaks but then finished a good third against males in the first leg of the Canadian Triple Crown, the Queen’s Plate Stakes. She then defeated males in the second jewel, the Prince of Wales Stakes. Perhaps Dixie Strike is more competitive in Canada than in the United States, but she is certainly a talented filly. She could start next in the Alabama.

Eden’s Moon: After breaking her maiden in January at Santa Anita, Eden’s Moon easily won the Las Virgenes Stakes (GI) before finishing third in the Santa Anita Oaks (GI). Following a last-place finish in the Kentucky Oaks, Eden’s Moon finished a nose short in the Hollywood Oaks (GII) over the synthetic. She made her turf debut on July 22, impressively winning the San Clemente Handicap (GII) at Del Mar. She seems to have found her niche on the grass.

Grace Hall: One of the top juvenile fillies last year, Grace Hall has never finished out of the money. A graded stakes winner at Gulfstream earlier this year, Grace Hall finished a good third in the Kentucky Oaks prior to returning on July 14 to effortlessly take the Delaware Oaks (GII). Though she does not have a grade one victory to her credit this year, I believe Grace Hall is among the top two of this division and she could prove that in the Alabama.

In Lingerie: A filly who has never finished out of the money, In Lingerie scored her first graded stakes victory in her graded stakes debut, dominating the Bourbonette Oaks (GIII) at Turfway in March. She then overcame great trouble to win the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (GIII) before finishing a decent third in the July 21 Coaching Club American Oaks.

Karlovy Vary: This filly broke through with a win in the Ashland, but then finished a poor twelfth in the Kentucky Oaks. However, Karlovy Vary then rebounded with an easy win in an allowance optional claiming over the Churchill Downs turf. She recently finished a decent third in the Nani Rose Stakes over Saratoga's turf course.

Lady of Shamrock: Recent winner of the American Oaks Stakes (GI), Lady of Shamrock has not finished off the board this year. A filly with an obvious affinity for Southern California turf courses, Lady of Shamrock could certainly have an advantage come the Breeders’ Cup. Obviously, this filly is more effective on turf than dirt, but I believe she is among the very best turf fillies in this division. She will likely race next in the Del Mar Oaks (GI).

My Miss Aurelia
Photo by Terri Cage

My Miss Aurelia: The champion juvenile filly from last year, My Miss Aurelia has not made a start yet this year due to a shin injury. However, she has been working steadily and is currently at Saratoga, preparing for a possible start in the Monmouth Oaks (GIII).

On Fire Baby: This filly was a top two-year-old last year, winning two graded stakes at Churchill. Following a good effort against males at Oaklawn, On Fire Baby won the Honeybee Stakes (GIII). However, she has been lackluster since then, finishing fifth in the Kentucky Oaks and fourth in the Acorn. She has had no workouts in the past sixty days.


Potesta: After finishing third in her debut in March, Potesta crushed a field in a mile and one-sixteenth maiden at Hollywood over the cushion track. Most recently, she took the Hollywood Oaks (GII) by a nose. She has plenty of learning to do, but is full of raw talent.

Questing: A filly who began her career in Great Britain, Questing took a while to get into the swing of things in the United States. She broke through with an easy victory in an allowance optional claiming at Belmont Park, following up that win with a green but dominant triumph in the Coaching Club American Oaks. She still has some growing up to do, but I believe Questing is among the best two in this division.

Reneesgotzip: A filly who has never competed outside of California, this daughter of City Zip won the Santa Ynez Stakes (GII) in January prior to finishing second in both the Las Virgenes and the Santa Anita Oaks. Her most recent start came in early May, when she won an allowance at Hollywood Park. She has not posted a work since May 21.

Stephanie’s Kitten: The winner of last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (GII) and Alcibiades Stakes (GI) was third in the Ashland prior to winning the ungraded Edgewood Stakes over the Churchill Downs turf course. She recently finished a close fourth in the Lake George, experiencing a tough trip.

Winding Way: A full sister to the brilliant two-year-old maiden winner Kauai Katie, this filly has proven to be as impressive as her sister. After winning a six-furlong maiden at Hollywood Park by nearly five lengths, the filly dominated a six and one-half-furlong allowance optional claiming by 7 ¼ lengths at Del Mar. She will need to show what she can do against graded stakes company, but this is certainly a remarkable filly.

Zo Impressive: This gray filly dominantly won her first two career starts at Gulfstream Park early this year, the latter of which she defeated In Lingerie in. Following a runner-up finish behind Grace Hall in the Gulfstream Oaks Stakes (GII) and another second-place finish in the Acorn, Zo Impressive took the Mother Goose. She then finished a sound second behind Questing in the Coaching Club American Oaks.

This division seems to be one that consists of horses that take turns beating each other. Grace Hall and Questing appear to be at the top, but Eden's Moon and Lady of Shamrock are certainly at the top of the turf three-year-old fillies, though Karlovy Vary and Stephanie's Kitten could continue to rebound. Horses like In Lingerie, Winding Way, and Zo Impressive should not be ignored, either. This division has some sorting out to do.

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Rosie Napravnik Becomes the First Female Jockey to Win the Kentucky Oaks

With her body lowered against the filly’s neck and withers, Rosie Napravnik asked the three-year-old filly beneath her for all she had. On the outside, the pair flew like a freight train. The wire was just ahead. Along with crossing that wire in front came the most coveted garland of lilies in the world, and, of course, the prestige of winning the greatest race for sophomore fillies in the world, the Kentucky Oaks (GI).

But it was not meant to be. Rosie Napravnik and St. John’s River finished a neck behind Plum Pretty in the 2011 Lilies for the Fillies. Two months later, Rosie Napravnik received an injury to her left arm and after four surgeries and her wedding, Napravnik was able to return to the races.

Rosie Napravnik
Photo: Terri Cage

For the second year in a row, Napravnik garnered the title of leading rider at Fair Grounds Race Course in New Orleans. Along with riding the talented colt Mark Valeski for trainer Larry Jones and former governor of Kentucky, Brereton Jones, Napravnik guided the gifted filly Believe You Can to wins in the Silverbulletday Stakes and the Fair Grounds Oaks (GII) for the same connections.

Four years after Larry Jones and Brereton Jones took the Kentucky Oaks with a daughter of Proud Citizen, the eventual champion Proud Spell, they returned to the race with yet another daughter of Proud Citizen – this time with a filly named Believe You Can. Prior to the Oaks, Believe You Can – like Proud Spell – turned in a blazing final work. The Fair Grounds Oaks winner completed five furlongs in an official clocking of 58.40 seconds, though others clocked her even faster.

Five days later, before the second largest crowd in Kentucky Oaks history, Believe You Can and thirteen other elite Thoroughbred fillies loaded into the starting gate before the grandstand at the historic Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky to contest in the greatest race for three-year-old fillies in the world. Side by side, the fillies stood in the gate, their eyes focused on the vast dirt oval ahead of them. Rosie Napravnik and the other jockeys settled aboard their mounts, prepared to ride a tremendous race. With one clang and an enormous cheer from the crowd, the young female Thoroughbreds leapt from the gate en route to a contest for the most sought-after lilies in the world.

Shortly after her clean break from the gate, Believe You Can was guided to the front by Napravnik, though it was the brilliant Broadway’s Alibi that took the lead as the field rounded the clubhouse turn. Rating just off the pace, Napravnik and Believe You Can found a good position in second as the fillies galloped down the backstretch, settling just to the outside of Broadway’s Alibi. Relaxing beautifully beneath twenty-four-year-old Napravnik, Believe You Can began to inch closer to the leader around the far turn.

As the fillies swung into the homestretch, it was clear that Believe You Can, with Rosie Napravnik aboard, and Broadway’s Alibi, with veteran jockey John Velazquez in the irons were headed into a fierce battle. With the riders asking their mounts for all they had, the two fillies dueled down the stretch before Believe You Can surged forward just before the sixteenth pole to draw off to a ¾ of a length victory. Triumphantly, Rosie Napravnik punched her fist into the air, a joyous grin spreading across her face.

With her victory aboard Believe You Can, Rosie Napravnik not only acquired her first grade one triumph, but she also became the first female in the one hundred thirty-eight runnings of the Kentucky Oaks to ride to victory. Her victory aboard Believe You Can is surely a source of inspiration for young women aspiring to have a career in the sport of kings, as well as a race that will never be forgotten and will forever be etched in the history books.

Rosie Napravnik wasn’t done yet. She came back after the Kentucky Oaks to win the nightcap at Churchill Downs, further putting an emphasis on her incredible talent and, of course, Girl Power.

As for Believe You Can, she was one of my featured "Oaks Contenders," so you can read more about her here.


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2012 Kentucky Oaks Field Analysis

Most attention this week is on the Kentucky Derby, which is deemed the greatest race that is contested in the sport of kings. However, the fillies deserve their time in the limelight as well and they get that opportunity on the Friday before the Kentucky Derby in the Kentucky Oaks. The race, like the Run for the Roses, has been run for one hundred thirty-seven consecutive years and allows the victor to celebrate in the same winner’s enclosure reserved solely for only two annual races: the Derby and the Oaks. The winner of the Oaks is rewarded with an ample garland of stunning pink lilies, giving the Kentucky Oaks the nickname “the Run for the Lilies.”

In 2011, we saw the thrilling stretch run between Plum Pretty and St. Johns River that resulted in the Bob Baffert trainee standing before the Twin Spires with the blanket of lilies draped over her withers. Though Plum Pretty did not win divisional honors, she has gone on to be quite successful and is maintaining her grade one status. Past runnings of the Oaks have provided us with victories by many spectacular fillies, including the great racehorses Blind Luck, Rachel Alexandra, Rags to Riches, Silverbulletday, Open Mind, Princess Rooney, Davona Dale, Dark Mirage, Cicada, Real Delight, and Wistful.

The 2012 edition of the Kentucky Oaks has attracted a very competitive field of sophomore fillies despite the fact that superstars My Miss Aurelia, Princess Arabella, and Weemissfrankie were prevented from running due to injuries. There is no clear-cut standout, making the race a wide-open contest between very talented three-year-olds fillies ready to have their names etched into the history books.

Featured below are all of the fillies slated to run in the 138^th running of the Kentucky Oaks (GI), along with descriptions of their pedigrees, racing records, final preparations, and my opinions of them. The fillies are simply listed in post position order, though ironically, the first three fillies are not just ranked in post position order, but also in the order in which I like them.

#1. On Fire Baby: A half-sister to a filly who finished third in the Oaks five years ago in High Heels, On Fire Baby is by Smoke Glacken. Though that sire is most well-known for producing sprinters and milers, he has produced the successful distance runner Persistenly – who defeated Rachel Alexandra in a grade one race at ten furlongs. She is also from the same tail-female line as the grade one-winning runners Cuvee, Pyro, and Paddy O’Prado.

After she impressively broke her maiden at Ellis Park, On Fire Baby took a huge step up in class to finish a good second in the Darley Alcibiades Stakes (GI) at the tough Keeneland autumn meet prior to winning two graded stakes races at Churchill Downs, including a dominant victory in the Golden Rod Stakes (GII). She made her sophomore debut against colts, finishing a noteworthy third before she returned to her own gender to win the Fantasy Stakes (GII).

On Fire Baby has worked twice over Churchill Downs – a track at which she is undefeated – in preparation for the Kentucky Oaks. Both works were at the distance of seven furlongs, which I find very significant, as it prepares her for the nine-furlong expanse of the Oaks and keeps her from moving too briskly. Her most current work was a 1:27 flat drill in which she galloped over the Churchill dirt beautifully on the morning of April 27.

Due to her excellent pedigree, obvious racing brilliance, and perfect record at Churchill Downs, On Fire Baby is my top selection for the Kentucky Oaks. She faces very stiff competition, most notably Grace Hall, though other fillies pose big threats as well. Though some may not like her draw, I think On Fire Baby should find a very good position if she breaks well and also has the ability to rate off the pace. Her two victories and extra training time at Churchill Downs give her a huge advantage. For more on why On Fire Baby is a top Kentucky Oaks contender, please click here.

#2. Grace Hall: Sired by the Belmont Stakes (GI, 12F)-winning Empire Maker and out of a mare who is sired by Ezzoud, a multiple group one winner at long distances in England, Grace Hall is loaded with stamina and is sure to enjoy a route of ground. Out of a stakes-winning mare in France, Grace Hall is a direct descendant of Kentucky Oaks winner Nellie L.

One of the most accomplished horses in the race, Grace Hall won her first three starts by a combined 10 ½ lengths, including the Spinaway Stakes (GI) at Saratoga. She then finished a game second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (GI) behind eventual champion My Miss Aurelia to close out her two-year-old campaign. Following a neck defeat by longshot Yara in the Davona Dale Stakes (GII) at Gulfstream, Grace Hall returned to her winning ways in the Gulfstream Oaks Stakes (GII), setting off the pace before coasting to an impressive 6 ½-length victory.

I rather would have seen Grace Hall make her final preparations for the Kentucky Oaks at Churchill, but she has been training at Palm Meadows Training Center in Florida instead. Her most recent workout was a 52.10-second five-furlong work and though this time is unspectacular, it must be noted that it came over an off track.

Grace Hall is obviously a very gifted filly that is capable of running with the best. Between her talent and remarkable pedigree, she is one of my top two choices in the Oaks. For more on why Grace Hall is a top Kentucky Oaks contender, please click here.

#3. Summer Applause: A direct descendant of two Reines De Course Mares, Summer Applause is by rising sire Harlan’s Holiday and out of a half-sister to a graded stakes-winning millionaire. She features inbreeding that has been quite profitable, being inbred to such horses as Northern Dancer and Crimson Saint in her first five generations.

Since her debut, in which she finished sixth, Summer Applause has not finished out-of-the-money. She made her stakes debut this January at the Fair Grounds, pressing the pace before not being able to catch Believe You Can. She then defeated that filly in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (GIII) prior to falling just a head short to that rival in the Fair Grounds Oaks (GII).

The Bret Calhoun trainee has posted two very impressive works at Churchill Downs in preparation for the Oaks. Her final work came on April 20 when she posted a five-furlong bullet work in 59.60 seconds.

Summer Applause is bred for, has the racing talent for, and has worked very well for the Kentucky Oaks. I expect her to run a big race. For more on why Summer Applause is a top Kentucky Derby, please click here.

#4. Eden’s Moon: By the sire of eight grade one victors including herself in Malibu Moon and out of the Giant’s Causeway mare Eden’s Causeway, Eden’s Moon is obviously a nicely bred filly bred for distance. Her second dam is the spectacular Irish-bred Broodmare of the Year North of Eden, the producer of three grade one victors, including the champion Paradise Creek. She is also a direct descendant of the Reine De Course mare Sensibility, who herself is out of a Reine De Course mare. Sensibility is the dam of three stakes performers, including the champion Theatrical.

A lightly raced filly, Eden’s Moon started just once as a two-year-old, finishing second behind the future graded stakes-winning Reneesgotzip in December in a six-furlong maiden special weight over Hollywood Park’s cushion track. The Florida-bred Eden’s Moon landed on my radar with her 11 ½-length maiden victory at Santa Anita in January. Following that dominant win, she led from start to finish to triumph in the Las Virgenes Stakes (GI) before falling short in the Santa Anita Oaks (GI) after pressing the pace.

The day before stablemates Bodemeister and Jemima’s Pearl made their final preparations, Eden’s Moon completed a 1:14-flat six-furlong work at Churchill Downs.

Eden’s Moon is certainly talented, but she will have to be on the top of her game to give trainer Bob Baffert a repeat win in the Kentucky Oaks. Nonetheless, she is among the most endowed in this group.

#5. Hard Not to Like: By the brilliant up-and-coming sire Hard Spun and out of a black-type-winning track record setter at ten furlongs, Hard Not to Like descends from the same dam line as fellow contender Summer Applause, with the most notable name in that tail-female line being Iribelle.

Following two non-black-type wins over Woodbine’s turf course, Hard Not to Like finished fifth in the Natalma Stakes (GIII) on the same oval before defeating the colt in the Cup and Saucer Stakes at Woodbine. Following a decent fifth-place performance in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (GII), Hard Not to Like made her sophomore debut in the Central Bank Ashland Stakes (GI) at Keeneland, running a rallying second behind Karlovy Vary.

The Ontario-bred filly, though she has never contested on dirt, has been training on dirt at Payson Park and Woodbine. Her final preparation was a 1:01.60 five-furlong drill at Woodbine.

Despite having never run on dirt, Hard Not to Like’s pedigree suggests she will handle it. I believe we have not seen the best of her yet and though she may not be as ready for the Oaks as some other contenders, I would not be surprised to see her perform very well. For more on why Hard Not to Like is a top Kentucky Oaks contender, please click here.

#6. Broadway’s Alibi: By juvenile champion Vindication and out of the stakes winner at sprinting distances, Broadway Gold, Broadway’s Alibi has the breeding of a sprinter or miler. Despite the appearances of horses such as Seeking the Gold, Storm Cat, and the dam of Dialed In in her pedigree, Broadway’s Albi’s bloodlines do not give much hope for her ability to go nine furlongs. Her half-sister, the stakes-winning and graded stakes-placed R Gypsy Gold, despite being by Bernardini, has never been victorious beyond a mile and one-sixteenth.

Nonetheless, Broadway’s Alibi has proved to be among the most brilliant fillies of this group. Her only loss came in her first start, but since then, the Todd Pletcher trainee has been on a tear, winning four races by an astounding combined 32 ¼ lengths, including the Forward Gal Stakes (GII) at seven furlongs and the Comely Stakes (GIII) at one mile. She has set the pace in each of these victories, which may be to her disadvantage in the Oaks.

She made her final preparation at Palm Meadows Training Center in Florida, completing a half-mile in 48.45. I would have preferred for her to have her last breeze at Churchill Downs.

I believe that the nine-furlong distance may prove to be too much for Broadway’s Alibi, despite the fact that she is absolutely brilliant.

#7. Sacristy: A daughter of A.P. Indy’s successful son Pulpit and the stakes-placed Christie’s Treasure, Sacristy is a direct descendant of Fool-Me-Not, the dam of the Kentucky Derby-winning champion Foolish Pleasure. She descends from the same tail-female line as the graded stakes-winning sire Valid Expectations – as well as his full siblings, the graded stakes-winning Little Sister and the stakes-winning and graded stakes-placed Littleepectations – and the grade one-winning Purge.

Following two runner-up finishes over the synthetic, Sacristy broke her maiden over the dirt at Churchill Downs in an impressive 6 ¾ lengths to end her two-year-old campaign. Her sophomore debut was a 1 ¾-length victory in the Old Hat Stakes (GIII) at Gulfstream Park. Though her next two starts were losses, they were in-the-money finishes in graded stakes races. However, she was defeated by at least three lengths in both, and in one of those losses, she was trounced by fellow Oaks contender Broadway’s Alibi.

Sacristy made her final preparation for the Oaks on April 27, going seven furlongs in 1:29. I like that she worked a longer distances than most horses, as it readies her for the nine-furlong distance, keeps her fitter, and prevents her from working too briskly.

Sacristy is undeniably gifted, but she may be a bit outclassed here. Nonetheless, a nice performance in the Run for the Lilies would not be shocking.

#8. Jemima’s Pearl: One of Bob Baffert’s two charges in this year’s Oaks, Jemima’s Pearl is certainly the lesser known of the two. By the elite sire Distorted Humor and out of the group two-winning mare Jemima, this filly is a half-sister to the multiple stakes winner at seven furlongs and the graded stakes-placed middle-distance horse Pinckney Hill.

The bay filly began her career in Ireland, breaking her maiden in her fourth start. Following a sixth-place finish in the Star Appeal Stakes at Dundalk, the bay filly returned to the country in which she was born. Her United States debut resulted in a nose victory in an allowance optional claiming at Santa Anita, which came before her third-place finish behind stablemate Mamma’s Kimbo and Amie’s Dini in the Fantasy Stakes (GII).

Jemima’s Pearl worked in company with leading Derby candidate Bodemeister on Sunday morning at Churchill Downs, serving as the gifted colt’s target for the second week in a row. She was outworked by the colt, but that was likely the plan and Bodemeister is, after all, one of the leading contenders for the Derby. She still turned in a good work, completing five furlongs in 1:00.40.

The Kentucky Oaks will be a tough mission for Jemima’s Pearl and I do not believe she is quite ready for it, despite the fact that she is from a strong pedigree and barn.  She has not shown as much as many of the other fillies and appears to be outclassed.

#9. Believe You Can: Competing for the connections of 2008 Oaks victor Proud Spell, Believe You Can is also by the same sire as the 2008 Champion Three-Year-Old Filly. This filly is inbred to many influential horses, including Buckpasser, Natalma, Nearctic, and Tom Fool. However, her broodmare sire, El Prado, has been primarily successful with sprinters as a damsire, with foals out of his daughters winning at an average distance of about seven furlongs. He is the damsire, after all, of the talented sprinters Hilda’s Passion and Essence Hit Man.

Believe You Can broke her maiden in her second start and followed up that victory with a dominant allowance optional claiming win at Delaware Park. After winning the Tempted Stakes (GIII) at Belmont, she finished a disappointing sixth in the Pocahontas Stakes (GII) behind On Fire Baby. At the Fair Grounds this year, Believe You Can galloped to a stakes win ahead of Summer Applause, a fourth-place finish in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (GIII) behind Summer Applause, and a victory in the Fair Grounds Oaks (GII) ahead of Summer Applause.

The Larry Jones trainee has had two works at Churchill Downs in preparation for the Oaks, posting a pair of quick five-furlong works. Her final preparation was a blistering five-furlong work on Sunday, in which the official clocking was 58.40, though some timed her in an even faster time. It is a bit worrisome that she completed such a rapid work, but Rachel Alexandra also posted a very quick time before her dominating Oaks win.

Believe You Can is by all means talented, but will need to run the best race of her career to earn the garland of lilies. For more on why Believe You Can is a top Kentucky Oaks contender, please click here.

#10. And Why Not: With the same trainer and rider combination as the very gifted Derby contender Union Rags, And Why Not could kick off a tremendous weekend for her connections. I find this filly to have one of the most beautifully knitted pedigrees you could study. Her sire is the brilliant stallion Street Cry, who is the sire of the great Zenyatta, as well as the Derby-winning champion Street Sense and an astounding eleven more group or grade one victors. As if that is not enough stallion power, And Why Not’s broodmare sire is the great A.P. Indy. The bottom side of her pedigree is also full of influential stallions, including Storm Cat, Alydar, and Never Bend. She is also a a direct descendant of three Reine De Course mares, including the 1983 Broodmare of the Year, Courtly Dee, who sired an incredible seven graded stakes winners, including the champion Althea, as well as two graded stakes-placed horses.

And Why Not, a $775,000 yearling purchase, debuted in August as a juvenile at Saratoga, dominantly winning a six and one-half-furlong maiden special weight after rallying from off the pace. Following a third-place finish behind fellow Oaks contender Grace Hall in the Spinaway Stakes (GI), And Why Not finished a disappointing sixth over Keeneland’s Polytrack in the Darley Alicibiades Stakes (GI). She rebounded with a runner-up performance behind On Fire Baby – also another Oaks contender – in the Pocahontas Stakes (GII) at Churchill Downs to conclude her juvenile career. And Why Not’s only start this year was an extremely unsatisfactory seventh-place finish in the Gulfstream Oaks Stakes (GII) at the end of March.

Despite her uninspiring 2012 racing performance, this Michael Matz trainee has been training well. Her final work for the Oaks at Churchill Downs came on Saturday, April 28, when she posted the fastest of forty-seven works at the four-furlong distance when she completed her breeze in 46.80 seconds.

Though her only start this year was quite discouraging, this regally bred filly is entering the Kentucky Oaks off a string of good works. She faces a tall task in the Run for the Lilies, but Michael Matz has conditioned her well and if she has anything going for her besides her training, it’s her pedigree.

#11. Karlovy Vary: A daughter of the recently deceased, great sire Dynaformer, a win by Karlovy Vary in the Kentucky Oaks would certainly be emotional. Her bloodlines appear to provide her with much stamina and notably, she is a direct descendant of the great mare Bayou.

Karlovy Vary broke her maiden in her second start and following two seventh-place finishes, one of which came in the Golden Rod Stakes (GII) at Churchill Downs behind On Fire Baby, the Alex Campbell homebred won a turf allowance optional claiming at Gulfstream before scoring in the Central Bank Ashland Stakes (GI).

Her final preparation came on Saturday, April 28 at Churchill Downs when she completed five furlongs in 1:01.20, covering the ground well.

Though her only start on dirt was a disappointing finish over the track that she will race on in the Kentucky Oaks, this filly has greatly improved since then and is coming into her own. She certainly will have no problem with the distance, but the race for Karlovy Vary is a matter of whether she has an affinity for the surface or not. A good race by her would not be a shock in the least, but she will have to continue her improvement. For more on why Karlovy Vary is a top Kentucky Oaks contender, please click here.

#12. Colonial Empress: The Empire Maker/Pleasant Colony cross this D. Wayne Lukas trainee is bred on hints that she will love a stretch-out in distance. Notably, she is a half-sister to the graded stakes-winning turf horse Pleasant Strike and a direct descendant of the Hall of Fame mare Gallorette.

Interestingly, this filly has only started three times, has never won, and has never competed in anything other than a stakes race. She debuted this February in the Martha Washington Stakes at Oaklawn, finishing fourth. Colonial Empress then ran a decent third in the Honeybee Stakes (GIII) at the same Hot Springs track before running last in the Fair Grounds Oaks (GII).

She has turned in two workouts at Churchill Downs in preparation for the Kentucky Oaks, her final work coming in a 48.40-second half-mile work.

Colonial Empress appears to be better in the mornings than the afternoons and I would be quite surprised to see her finish at the top in the Oaks.

#13. Amie’s Dini: Though her sire, Bandini, is relatively unknown, he should aid her in the Oaks’ distance of nine furlongs, as he was a grade one winner at that distance. A descendant of a string of Claiborne Farm mares and two Reine De Course mares, Amie’s Dini has a solid pedigree, though it may not be as flamboyant as the bloodlines of other Oaks entrants. Though Amie’s Dini’s pedigree does not completely verify her ability to get nine furlongs, there are plenty of hints that she will be able to handle the distance.

Amie’s Dini debuted in a much less flashy way than the other contenders, winning a maiden claiming at Remington Park. Following two good allowance optional claiming performances at Churchill Downs, including a victory, Amie’s Dini made her sophomore debut at Oaklawn Park, finishing a noteworthy second behind the then-undefeated Now I Know in the Dixie Belle Stakes. She then handed Now I Know her first defeat in the other filly’s final race, scoring in the Martha Washington Stakes by 1 ¾ lengths after pressing the pace. Remaining at Oaklawn Park, Amie’s Dini turned in a pair of notable runner-up finishes in graded stakes races, and proved to be clearly second best in those races.

With a win at Churchill Downs already to her credit, Amie’s Dini already has very significant experience at the Louisville, Kentucky track. She has also turned in two works over the dirt surface there in preparation for the Oaks, her final work coming on Saturday, April 28 when she breezed five furlongs in an unimpressive 1:05.40.

Amie’s Dini, though a talented filly, seems to be outclassed in this group.

#14. Yara: By the relatively unknown stallion Put It Back and out of a daughter of Gilded Time, Yara is not among the most royally bred of Kentucky Oaks entrants. She is, however, a direct descendant of the grade one-winning Reine De Course mare Happy Mood, who produced the granddam of the Canadian Triple Crown-winning and Hall of Fame member With Approval and his Hall of Fame-inducted half-brother, the Belmont Stakes (GI)-winning Touch Gold.

Yara’s first six races formed a pattern: fourth, then first, then fourth, then first, then fourth, and then first. Two of those wins were stakes victories, one of which came in the Davona Dale Stakes (GII) over Grace Hall. Following that triumph, Yara broke the pattern by finishing a distant fifth in the Gulfstream Oaks Stakes (GII).

Though it’s encouraging that her final work came at Churchill Downs, it was quite a relatively unsatisfactory work. It was a slow final time of 51 seconds flat for a half-mile and she changed leads to the incorrect lead in the stretch. She is not the best work horse, but the final preparation did not help her case in the Oaks.

Yara is an endowed filly, but I don’t think she will win the Kentucky Oaks, as she seems to be outshone by many of her competitors.

Also Eligible:

#15. Oaks Lily: No other filly is as fittingly named as Oaks Lily, who was clearly named for this race since no name in her immediate family hints at that name. By the multiple graded stakes winner at nine furlongs, Badge of Silver, and out of a half-sister to a multiple stakes victor at one mile or longer, Oaks Lily is confirmed for the nine-furlong distance of the Kentucky Oaks.

Oddly, Oaks Lily is coming off a win in a maiden special weight. In fact, all but one of her starts have come in a maiden special weight. The only race that she has contested in that was not a maiden was the OBS Championship Stakes for fillies in March, in which she finished second. She has only finished in the money in half of her starts.

Her final work came on Friday, April 27 at Churchill Downs – a track at which she finished eleventh in her only start there. She completed a half-mile in 49.40 seconds.

I do not expect for Oaks Lily to perform well in the race for which she is named, as she is outclassed by this group. More than likely, however, she will not draw in.

My top selection is On Fire Baby, though it is a close call between her and Grace Hall. I also expect for Summer Applause to run a very good race. Of course, since it is a tough field, I believe horses such as Karlovy Vary, Hard Not to Like, and Eden’s Moon should not be ignored, either. No filly has yet stamped herself at the top of this class, but following the Run for the Lilies, the sophomore fillies picture should be much clearer. And should the winner of the Kentucky Oaks continue to be successful this year, she could very well become the fifth victor of the Oaks to be voted Champion Three-Year-Old Filly since 2007. 

Plum Pretty, winner of the 2011 Kentucky Oaks
Photo: Terri Cage

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Oaks Contender: Hard Not to Like

Despite never having run on dirt, Hard Not to Like will make her main track debut among the most gifted sophomore fillies on the continent as she contests in the Kentucky Oaks (GI). Though she’ll have three wins to her credit as she goes to post, she will have no graded stakes victories under her belt – just good performances in them. Despite the fact that she may be bestowed with high odds, she certainly has a good chance to outrun those odds.

The graceful, charcoal gray filly is a result of a careful mating planned by owner and breeder Garland Williamson of Hillbrook Farms, who retains ownership of Hard Not to Like’s dam, Like a Gem – a track record setter at ten furlongs and a multiple black-type winner. An earner of over half-a-million dollars, the Ontario-bred mare is out of the same dam as the multiple graded stakes-placed Cool Gator and the stakes-winning Win and Reign. A daughter of the grade one-winning Tactical Cat, Like a Gem provides Hard Not to Like with the great Storm Cat as her grandsire. Tactical Cat – too young to make much of an impact as a broodmare sire – is a son of the damsire of such horses as the grade one winners Bodemeister, Dialed In, Folklore, Sky Mesa, Speightstown, and Sidney’s Candy. Like a Gem’s own broodmare sire is champion sprinter Rubiano, damsire of the grade one winner Take Charge Lady, as well as the graded stakes victors Ecclesiastic, Grazen, Neko Bay, Teammate, and War Front.

Interestingly, Hard Not to Like comes from the same dam line as fellow Kentucky Oaks contender Summer Applause, as Hard Not to Like’s seventh dam is the Reine De Course mare Iribelle, who happens to be Summer Applause’s fifth dam. This forms the same line of beautifully-bred E.P. Taylor mares, as Iribelle – a stakes-placed runner – was the dam of the Canadian Horse of the Year, as well as Victoriana – Summer Applause’s fifth dam – and the talented multiple stakes-winning Britannia – Hard Not to Like’s sixth dam.

The dam of Hard Not to Like is the flourishing young sire Hard Spun. A grade one winner who finished second in the 2007 Kentucky Derby (GI), Hard Spun is a son of the influential sire Danzig. Other sons of the deceased son of Northern Dancer that have gone on to success at stud include the champion racehorse and one of the leading international sires, Danehill, as well as the sire of champions, Dayjur. From a strong dam line that included the dam of the champion Little Current , Hard Spun has quickly become a successful stud, siring such horses as Saturday's Derby Trial Stakes (GIII)-winning Hierro, the group stakes-winning Red Duke, the multiple stakes-winning and graded stakes-placed Glinda the Good, and the stakes-winning runners Hardened Wildcat, Midnight Transfer, and Sweet Seventeen. Hard Not to Like is currently his leading earner.

Between Hard Spun and Like a Gem, Hard Not to Like features 3 X 5 inbreeding to the influential Northern Dancer. Inbreeding to this prominent son of Nearctic has appeared in the pedigrees of several champions, including Big Brown, Orfevre, Rachel Alexandra, and Summer Bird.

The pedigree of Hard Not to Like implies that the filly can run on any surface and by the end of the Kentucky Oaks, she will have done so. However, she has not yet contested over dirt – the surface over which the Oaks is run. All of her races have come on the turf and synthetic.

Hard Not to Like made her first start in a six-furlong maiden special weight over the turf course at Woodbine in Canada, sitting in a mid-pack position prior to closing to prevail by a half-length in an impressive final time of 1:09.81. She scored another win a month later, competing in a one-mile allowance over Woodbine’s turf oval. Racing mid-pack yet again, the dark gray filly made a wide move around the final turn before striking to lead and never looking back as she coasted to a 1 ¼-length victory. Yet again, the daughter of Hard Spun posted another remarkable final time: 1:35.10 for one mile.

Taking a step up in class, Hard Not to Like loaded into the gate amongst a deep field of juvenile fillies. Over the same turf course on which all of her starts had come, the Gail Cox trainee broke from the starting gate in the Natalma Stakes (GIII) – named after E.P. Taylor’s great dam of Northern Dancer. Finding a position far off the pace, Hard Not to Like was forced to maneuver traffic and swing extremely wide around the far turn. By the time she had found enough real estate to commence her move, she seemed to have lost too much momentum and despite making a decent rally, Hard Not to Like had to settle for fifth. While finishing behind the winners of a combined five future graded stakes or ungraded stakes races, Hard Not to Like defeated runners that had placed or would eventually place in a total of six stakes races.

Making her fourth consecutive start over Woodbine’s grass course, Hard Not to Like performed next in the Cup and Saucer Stakes at a mile and one-sixteenth. The daughter of Hard Spun displayed a new dimension, being forwardly placed before taking command of the lead around the final curve. She had dig in to overthrow two other grays in the stretch, but once she did, she coasted to a 4 ¾-length victory over Woodbine’s soft turf. Remarkably, Hard Not to Like was the only filly in the field.

Hard Not to Like proceeded to enter the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (GII) at Churchill Downs, facing the past or future winners of seven group or graded stakes altogether. Racing widest of all, Hard Not to Like ran mid-pack, though a bit closer to the lead than she had been in her first three starts. Due to her wide trip, the gray filly had no choice but to race near the center of the track as the field swung into the homestretch. She rallied, but it was only enough to secure a fifth-place finish, beaten just three lengths.

The Ontario-bred filly did not start again for five months, making her sophomore debut in the Central Bank Ashland Stakes (GI) at Keeneland – a race full of history. It was her first start in a race that was not contested on a turf course, but it was on the similar surface Polytrack. It was also her first start in a grade one race, which is, of course, the highest level of racing. The significant race was a tall task for a return to the races, but if there was even the slightest hope of getting Hard Not to Like to the Kentucky Oaks, the race would set her up well should she run a good race. With Robby Albarado aboard for the first time, Hard Not to Like was forwardly placed as Karlovy Vary set the pace. Despite finding room around the final turn and making an impressive rally, she could not best Karlovy Vary and finished second by ¾ of a length.

Hard Not to Like’s remarkable return to the races sent her on the road to the Kentucky Oaks, where she will face the toughest field of her life. Yet, if Hard Not to Like could run that well in such a tough race off a five-month layoff, one can only imagine how much she has matured. Already a gifted filly, Hard Not to Like seems to be an improving filly.

Many find it worrisome that she has not started over dirt before, but the filly has been training well over the dirt surface at Palm Meadows Training Center despite posting sluggish times. However, trainer Gail Cox has expressed confidence in the filly. In fact, he told the Daily Racing Form, “We sort of think she’ll handle any surface.”

This still may not convince handicappers, but it must be noted that the filly’s sire was very successful on both dirt and synthetic, winning graded stakes races on both surfaces. He was also effective over Churchill Downs’ main track, running a spectacular second in the 2007 Kentucky Derby. Though Hard Not to Like’s dam, Like a Gem, found her greatest success on the turf and synthetic, she won twice over conventional dirt. It also must be taken into consideration that Hard Not to Like galloped over the Churchill Downs’ dirt surface in preparation for the Breeders’ Cup last fall.

With just one start under her belt this year and no starts on dirt, Hard Not to Like will likely go off at double-digit odds. Perhaps she’ll be a good play for bettors, but most of all, it would no surprise to me to see Hard Not to Like perform very well in the Kentucky Oaks. A classy, improving filly with a pedigree interwoven with names of imperial Thoroughbreds, Hard Not to Like will be a significant presence on Oaks Day.

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Oaks Contender: Karlovy Vary

In mid-April, it was announced that the influential sire Dynaformer was pensioned after over twenty years of standing at stud, meaning only a few more crops sired by the great stallion will grace the track. Among those vanishing offspring is the flourishing three-year-old filly Karlovy Vary. Bred in Kentucky by owner Alex Campbell, this bay filly has suddenly emerged as one of the leading sophomore fillies in the nation.

Karlovy Vary made her debut at the competitive Saratoga, closing to finish third after a rough start in a mile and one-sixteenth turf maiden special weight. She was defeated by the future grade one-placed Heart of Destiny, but galloped across the finish line ahead of the eventual graded stakes-winning Lady of Shamrock, as well as the future graded stakes-placed runners Dancing Solo and Goldrush Girl. Ironically, Karlovy Vary would eventually contest against a number of these fillies at a higher level in the future.

Approximately a month later, Karlovy Vary raced in yet another mile and one-sixteenth turf maiden special weight – this time at the tough autumn meet at Keeneland. After pressing the pace, the daughter of Dynaformer galloped to a 1 ½-length victory. Among the horses that she defeated were Lady of Shamrock and the eventual black-type-placed Oaks Lily.

Karlovy Vary then made both her graded stakes and dirt debut, going a mile and one-sixteenth over Churchill Downs’ dirt surface in the Golden Rod Stakes (GII). Traveling very wide, the filly ran near the rear of the field and made a decent move, but only managed to finish seventh in the field of ten. The winner of that race was the impressive On Fire Baby, who defeated runner-up Goldrush Girl by 6 ¼ lengths.

In her final start as a juvenile, Karlovy Vary returned to the turf in the Ginger Brew Stakes at Gulfstream Park – yet again at a mile and one-sixteenth. Settling far off the pace, Karlovy Vary only made a very slight move to finish seventh of twelve.

The filly’s sophomore debut was a winning one – a victory in an a mile and one-sixteenth allowance optional claiming over Gulfstream Park’s turf course. After being forwardly placed, Karlovy Vary rallied to prevail by a half-length over Heart of Destiny. She complete the eight and one-half furlongs in an impressive final time of 1:40.92 with an imposing final sixteenth in 5.82 seconds.

At the beginning of April, Karlovy Vary contested in the Bluegrass State’s most esteemed prep for the Kentucky Oaks (GI): the Central Bank Ashland Stakes (GI) at Keeneland Racecourse. This time, she set the pace – posting easy internal fractions of 24.34, 24.63, 24.81, and 24.50 in the mile and one-sixteenth race. Despite being chased by the stakes-winning Hard Not to Like, the grade one-winning and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (GI) victor Stephanie’s Kitten, Heart of Destiny, the graded stakes-placed and multiple stakes-winning Dixie Strike, Goldrush Girl, and the multiple stakes-winning Lotta Lovin, Karlovy Vary held off their charges to score by ¾ of a length.

Dynaformer, the sire of Karlovy Vary
Photo: Terri Cage

Dynaformer is not only the sire of the 2006 Kentucky Derby (GI) winner Barbaro, but also the sire of  the brilliant distance horse Americain (winner of the 3200-meter Melbourne Cup) and the multiple grade one-winning champion steeplechaser McDynamo. The cross of Roberto sire-line stallions such as Dynaformer and Pulpit mares such as Karlovy Vary’s dam has produced the graded stakes winner over twelve furlongs on grass, Newsdad, and the graded stakes-placed runner over ten furlongs on turf, Rocket Leg – Karlovy Vary’s full brother. This cross forms an average winning distance of over nine furlongs – covering Karlovy Vary for the mile and one-eighth distance of the Kentucky Oaks.

Karlovy Vary is sure to inherit plenty of stamina from her dam, The Right Pew, as well. She is, of course, also the dam of the aforementioned Rocket Legs, but is the daughter of the multiple stakes-winning mare at a mile or longer, Packet – who was sired by the same sire as the 1993 Kentucky Derby winner Sea Hero, Polish Navy. By being out of Packet, The Right Pew is a half-sister to the multiple graded stakes-winning Great Intentions and the multiple stakes-winning and graded stakes-placed Sea Road.

Not only should Karlovy Vary receive much stamina influence from many of the sires found in her dam side (A.P. Indy, Danzig, Tom Rolfe, Bold Ruler), but her fifth dam is the 1957 Champion Three-Year-Old Filly, Bayou. Not only was she a champion out of a Reine De Course mare, but she was a Reine De Course mare in her own right that was a sister to two Broodmares of the Year – including her multiple stakes-winning full sister Levee, dam of the champion Shuvee. Bayou herself was the dam of the multiple stakes-winning Batteur and the dam of multiple grade one winners Coastal and Slew o’ Gold – the latter of which is a Hall of Famer. Other direct descendants of Bayou include the multiple grade one-winning Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes (GI, 12F) runner-up Aptitude - who also won the Jockey Club Gold Cup (GI) at ten furlongs - and the grade one-winning Sleep Easy. This strong dam line hails from female family nine, which is the same female family that the great horses Alydar, Bull Lea, Fair Play, Galileo, Mahmoud, Nasrullah, Sea the Stars, Sir Barton, and Shergar descend from.

Karlovy Vary’s only start over the Churchill Downs dirt was a poor one, but this filly has certainly come into her own as a three-year-old. She is showing much improvement and with a pedigree like hers, she will likely continue to mature. Even if her performance is not quite up to par, expect for Karlovy Vary to make a scene down the road – especially in races in which stamina is a requirement. But a disappointing performance in the Kentucky Oaks would be a bit of a surprise, as this daughter of Dynaformer is a quickly improving, gifted filly.


*Later in the afternoon of the day this was posted, it was announced that Dynaformer had passed away at the age of twenty-seven. Rest in peace, big man!


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Oaks Contender: Summer Applause

Bret Calhoun has emerged from solely being a successful trainer in the South and has formed a presence on the national scene. For instance, in 2010, he saddled two Breeders’ Cup winners: Chamberlain Bridge and Dubai Majesty. Now, in 2012, he has a chance to saddle the victor of the renowned Kentucky Oaks (GI) thanks to a talented filly named Summer Applause.

The bay filly debuted in Canada as a juvenile, finishing a flat sixth in a five and one-half-furlong maiden special weight over Woodbine’s all-weather track. She redeemed herself next out, however, stretching out to seven furlongs. After settling off the leaders, Summer Applause struck to the lead in the stretch prior to drawing clear to win by 2 ¼ lengths.

Her final start as a two-year-old came at Fair Grounds Race Course in New Orleans, Louisiana, in which she contested in a mile and seventy yards allowance optional claiming over the track’s dirt surface. She showed a new dimension, setting the lead from start to finish as she effortlessly triumphed by 7 lengths.

Summer Applause’s stakes debut came in the Silverbulletday Stakes, in which the Calhoun trainee pressed the pace set by Believe You Can before the aforementioned filly went on to defeat her by 2 ½ lengths. Summer Applause clearly learned much from the race, however, as next out in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (GIII), she continued her blossoming rivalry with Believe You Can. Returning to her style of rating off the pace, Summer Applause made a late move to take the mile and one-sixteenth race by a length, leaving Believe You Can in fourth.

The rivalry was revived yet again in the Fair Grounds Oaks (GII), in which Summer Applause rated off the pace before making an outside move on the far turn. It appeared as if Believe You Can was drawing away from the field, leaving Summer Applause behind, but the Calhoun trainee dug in under Robby Albarado. As she reached the sixteenth pole, she suddenly hit another gear and accelerated to close in on Believe You Can, only to miss by a head. The blaze-faced bay galloped out ahead of the victor.

Calhoun, who typically keeps a stable at Churchill Downs during the Louisville track’s meet, already has Summer Applause stabled beneath the Twin Spires, giving her plenty of time to get adapted to the track. She will get more training over the track compared to several other Kentucky Oaks hopefuls, which will certainly be to her benefit.

Summer Applause’s bloodlines are full of the names of elite horses, giving implications that Summer Applause has only just begun her journey to success. Her sire is Harlan’s Holiday, who has quickly become one of the most productive sires in the industry. A multiple grade one-winning grandson of Storm Cat, Harlan’s Holiday has produced the grade one-winning horses Into Mischief and Majesticperfection, the multiple group stakes-winning horses Mendip and Willcox Inn, and the grade three-winning runners Dynamic Holiday, Riley Tucker, Saratoga Sinner, Silver Reunion, and Tasha’s Miracle.

The dam of Summer Applause is Summer Exhibition, a result of the mating between the champion Royal Academy and the stakes-winning dam of the multiple graded stakes-winning Recoup the Cash. In addition to producing Summer Applause, Summer Exhibition is the dam of the multiple stakes-placed runner Big Easy.

Summer Applause features two crosses of the Reine De Course mare Crimson Saint, who was a graded stakes winner who produced the grade one-winning champion and sire Royal Academy, the grade one-winning and track record-equaling Pancho Villa, the multiple graded stakes-winning dam of Storm Cat in Terlingua, the stakes-winning Alydariel, and the stakes-placed horses Border Run and Encino (the latter of which is graded stakes-placed). 

She is also inbred 5 X 4 to Northern Dancer, who has appeared in both the bloodlines of the sire and dam in the pedigrees of such Kentucky Oaks winners as Rachel Alexandra and Keeper Hill, as well as recent Derby victors Mine That Bird and Big Brown.

Summer Applause descends from a line of royally-bred mares from E.P. Taylor’s powerhouse breeding program. Her fifth dam, the Reine De Course mare Victoriana, who herself is a daughter of a Reine De Course mare in Iribelle, is the dam of the 1952 Canadian Horse of the Year Canadiana. Victoriana was an even more successful broodmare than her dam, producing the champions Northern Queen (Summer Applause’s fourth dam) and Victoria Park, the multiple stakes-winning Bull Vic, and the dam of a champion. Other direct descendants of Victoriana include the Canadian Hall of Famer Vice Regent, the Canadian champion Northern Blossom, and the multiple group stakes-winning High Accolade. This productive dam line hails from female family ten, which has yielded the champions Beldame, Deputy Minister, and La Roche, as well as the 2005 Kentucky Oaks victor Summerly.

Summer Applause poses one of the biggest threats in the Kentucky Oaks as a result of her clear racing talent and determination, in addition to her royal pedigree. Though she has finished behind Believe You Can more than she has defeated her, I believe she is the better filly, especially the longer the distance. Summer Applause is absolutely one of the leading contenders for this year’s edition of the Run for the Lilies.


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Oaks Contender: On Fire Baby

An ordinary-looking bay filly named High Heels went to post in the most prestigious race for three-year-old fillies, the Kentucky Oaks (GI) with one graded stakes victory and several stakes-placed finishes to her credit. That early May day, Anita Ebert-Cauley’s homebred crossed the wire in third behind the great Rags to Riches and the victor’s talented stablemate Octave, stamping her dam, Ornate, as a broodmare anyone would like to have.

Five years later, another daughter of Ornate, On Fire Baby, will load into the starting gate for the Run for the Lilies. This filly, however, will be more strongly backed. Not only is High Heels’ younger half-sister far flashier than she was as far as looks are concerned, but she also has a race record that draws more attention. A stunning cadet gray rather than a relatively forgettable bay, On Fire Baby has been victorious in many races in which High Heels could not quite get her nose in front.

On Fire Baby debuted at the belittled Ellis Park in Henderson, Kentucky, setting the pace alongside another filly before easily drawing off to a 4-length victory in the five and one-half-furlong maiden special weight. Her dominant debut was enough to convince her owner and breeder Anita Ebert-Cauley and trainer Gary Hartlage to put the filly on a much tougher path.

She took a huge step-up in class next out, contesting in the prestigious Darley Alcibiades Stakes (GI) at the competitive Keeneland fall meet. Sent off as the longest shot in a field of thirteen, On Fire Baby narrowly set the pace before faltering to finish fifth. In her first try against stakes company, the gray filly put in a valiant effort while finishing behind a future Breeders’ Cup victor, a stakes-winning filly, and a stakes-placed filly. She also finished ahead of many talented runners, including a Canadian champion, a graded stakes winner, two graded stakes-placed fillies, a stakes-placed filly, and the full sister to the graded stakes-winning Wilburn.

On Fire Baby’s respectable effort against a tough field in the Alcibiades must have given her a huge confidence boost, as next out in the Pocahontas Stakes (GII) at Churchill Downs, the gray filly proved many doubters wrong. Sent off at 9-1, On Fire Baby found the perfect position off the leaders and though it appeared as if she was going in the wrong direction around the far turn, jockey Joe Johnson guided the filly through traffic in the homestretch before the pair crossed the wire victoriously by ¾ of a length. Her final time for one mile over the Churchill dirt was almost identical to the male equivalent of the Pocahontas, the Iroquois Stakes (GIII). Whereas the winner of the Iroquois, Motor City, completed the eight furlongs in 1:37.18, On Fire Baby stopped the clock at 1:37.17.

Then came her best race yet. A month after scoring in the Pocahontas, On Fire Baby contested in the Golden Rod Stakes (GII), a race that High Heels had only managed to finish third in. In the Golden Rod, On Fire Baby set the pace at Churchill Downs before showing great acceleration as she drew off to a 6 ¼-length victory. Immediately, On Fire Baby was dubbed one of the top juvenile fillies in the nation.

Her brilliance as a two-year-old was enough to convince her connections to run her against the males in her sophomore debut, which came in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park in January. Settling off the pace, On Fire Baby raced wide for a large portion of the race and despite putting up a gallant fight against the males, she finished third, beaten just over a length. Despite losing, she did defeat the winners of four past or future stakes, horses who had placed or would go on to place in four graded stakes races, and runners who had placed or would eventually place in four ungraded stakes.

On Fire Baby returned to running solely against her own gender in her following start, the Honeybee Stakes (GIII) at Oaklawn Park – yet another race that High Heels ran well in but could not win. After rating just off the lead, On Fire Baby loomed on the outside around the far turn, sticking her nose in front near the quarter pole and battling with Amie’s Dini prior to drawing clear to win by 2 lengths.

Though the plan had been for On Fire Baby to make her final start before the Oaks in the Fantasy Stakes (GII) or Arkansas Derby (GI), her connections came to the decision to train her up to the Run for the Lilies, as her owner prefers to have a fresh filly going into the renowned race. She is already at Churchill Downs, having turned in a remarkable seven-furlong work over the Louisville track on Friday. I find it very encouraging that the filly breezed a much longer distance than most horses, as it prepares her for the nine-furlong expanse of the Oaks and also keeps her from working too quickly.

With the talented graded stakes-winning and Kentucky Oaks-placed High Heels as her half-sister, On Fire Baby is clearly bred for the Derby’s sister race. Yet that is not the only indication that her pedigree will support her in the Oaks. Her dam, Ornate, is a stakes-winning daughter of the juvenile champion Gilded Time who not only has produced On Fire Baby and High Heels, but is also the dam of the stakes-winning and graded stakes-placed French Kiss.

Though her sire, Smoke Glacken, was a champion sprinter, he has produced such horses as the Sabin Stakes (GIII, 8F)-winning Lady Marlboro; the Personal Ensign Stakes (GI, 10F)-winning Persistently, who defeated 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra with that win; the Fountain of Youth (GII, 8.5F)-winning Read the Footnotes; and Smok’n Frolic, who won multiple graded stakes races over one mile.

On Fire Baby is also bred on the same Smoke Glacken/Gilded Time cross as the grade one-winning Irish Smoke and is inbred 5 X 5 to both Bold Ruler and Native Dancer. 5 X 5 inbreeding to Native Dancer has appeared in the pedigrees of many talented racehorses, including the grade one winners Big Brown, El Corredor, Strategic Maneuver, and Whywhywhy. Bold Ruler inbreeding has been immensely successful, being in the pedigrees of such grade one winners as A.P. Indy, Bernardini, and Sky Mesa.

The fourth dam of On Fire Baby is Light Verse, the dam of the graded stakes-placed Al Stanza and the dam of the grade one-winning Olympio. Not only was she successful with her own offspring, but she was an influential presence in the female family of the grade one winners Cuvee, Pyro, and Paddy O’Prado. This dam line stems from female family eight, which yielded the recent Kentucky Oaks winners Plum Pretty, Rags to Riches, Bird Town, and Secret Status.  

There is no doubt that On Fire Baby should be taken seriously in the Kentucky Oaks. Her race record is flawless at Churchill Downs, which seems to be the surface over which she performs best. In addition to being a brilliant runner, On Fire Baby is bred through-and-through for success at the pinnacle of racing. She will face many tough fillies, but if On Fire Baby is on the top of her game, she will be very difficult to defeat.


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