Late-Blooming Three-Year-Olds

Every year, we see several impressive sophomores emerge in late winter or early spring. Often, they are too late for the Kentucky Derby (GI), but they are frequently seen in the Preakness Stakes (GI) or even the Belmont Stakes (GI). If they are not ready for the spring classics, we sometimes see them at prestigious summer or fall meets such as Saratoga and Del Mar.

We have already seen numerous talented three-year-olds that may not make it to the Derby or other Triple Crown races, but look to be forces in later races. Here are some late-blooming three-year-olds:

Cigar Street: If you want a colt with incredible bloodlines, you want a colt like Cigar Street. He is by the 2007 Kentucky Derby (GI) winner, Street Sense, and out of a half-sister to the Hall of Famer and second richest racehorse of all-time, Cigar. The colt’s dam, Arcadiana, is by the incredible broodmare sire, Deputy Minister, who ironically is the broodmare sire of the richest racehorse of all-time, Curlin. The dam of Arcadiana is of course Solar Slew, who was sold for a total of $4,945,000 in her four purchases at major sales. In addition to producing the great Cigar, Solar Slew also produced Mulca, the multiple group-winning South American champion. Through this female family, Cigar Street traces back to the Burton Barb Mare (female family two), the same mare that produced the families of the ill-fated multiple grade one-winning champion Go For Wand, the Kentucky Derby- and Preakness Stakes-winning Northern Dancer, the Australian legend Phar Lap, the Canadian Triple Crown winner With Approval, and possibly the greatest horse to ever look through a bridle in the Triple Crown-winning Secretariat.

In his debut, Cigar Street finished a troubled fifth in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Fair Grounds racecourse in early February. On March 10, the colt avenged his loss in style by winning his second start by a dazzling 13 ¾ lengths. He finished the mile and one-sixteenth maiden special weight in a final time of 1:43.75 after leading from start to finish. Surely he gave his connections – owner Jake Ballis and trainer Steve Margolis – much hope for success in bigger races down the road.

Closerwalk: This colt is also by Street Sense, who is making a name for himself as a sire. In fact, the 2007 Derby winner is currently the second-leading second crop sire. Closerwalk’s dam, Cool Pussycat, is by Tabasco Cat, the Preakness- and Belmont-winning son of Storm Cat. The cross on which Closerwalk is bred is similar to the cross that produced the multiple group stakes-winning Desert Party and the grade three-winning 2012 Derby contender Castaway. Cool Pussycat is out of a Raise a Native mare who also produced the graded stakes-winning horses Chilly Rooster and Rotsaluck, as well as the stakes-placed Cold Awakening. This is female family one, which is one of the most prolific Thoroughbred families. Horses that descend from family one include the multiple group one-winning champions High Chaparral and Snow Fairy, as well as the Hall of Famers Buckpasser, Genuine Risk, and Sword Dancer.

Following two runner-up finishes in maiden special weights at Gulfstream – one of which was against state-bred company and the other which was against open company – Closerwalk broke his maiden in his third lifetime start. Racing against Florida-breds for the second time, Closerwalk led from gate to wire to score by 2 ¾ lengths while being pursued by the drifting out Saint of Saints. He completed the seven furlongs in 1:22.67. He has already ran second against open company, so surely he will be competitive against it again in future starts.

Ender Knievel: By the leading sire of 2011 in Distorted Humor and out of an A.P. Indy mare, Ender Knievel’s pedigree is already impressive at first glance. It gets even more remarkable the more you study it. The cross of Distorted Humor with A.P. Indy mares has produced several top-class racehorses, including the grade one-winning Any Given Saturday and the grade three-winning horses Brethren, Endorsement, and Z Humor. Ender Knievel’s dam, Ender’s Sister, won three stakes and placed in five graded stakes races, including a second-place finish behind champion Ashado in the Cotillion Handicap (GII). The dam of Ender’s Sister is Gold Rush Queen, a Seeking the Gold mare who also produced the stakes-winning and graded stakes-placed Ender’s Shadow. Ender Knievel hails from female family fourteen, the same family that produced the Epsom Derby (GI)- and Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (GI)-winning Workforce, the champion and prominent sire Polynesian, the Kentucky Derby-winning Foolish Pleasure, the multiple grade one-winning Hall of Famer Skip Away, and the multiple grade one-winning Horse of the Year Invasor.

After two fifth place finishes in maiden special weights in Kentucky, Ender Knievel closed out his two-year-old campaign with a runner-up finish behind the eventual graded stakes-winning Thunder Moccasin at Gulfstream. In his sophomore debut, Ender Knievel set the pace in a one-mile maiden special weight at the same Florida track before easily drawing away from the field by 7 ¾ lengths. He could make his next start in the Sunland Derby (GIII) on March 25, which could give him sufficient earnings for the Kentucky Derby.

Flashy Dresser: With the Stephen Foster (GI)-winning Flashy Bull as his sire and the Two Punch mare Saltnvinegar as his dam, Flashy Dresser’s pedigree does not suggest that he will appreciate very long distances. However, his bloodlines give plenty of reason to believe that he will be a successful sprinter or miler. His dam is a half-sister to the black-type-placed sprinter, Covert, and a full sister to the multiple black-type-placed sprinter, Creative Tension. He descends from a slightly nondescript female family in family seven. Though this family is not as prosperous as a family like female family one or four, it has produced some talented horses, including the champions American Flag, Coaltown, Ladysman, and Lando.

Flashy Dresser debuted on March 4 in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park, finding a position off the pace while advancing toward the leaders as the race progressed. He rocketed forward as the horses entered the homestretch, opening up nearly nine lengths on the field en route to victory. He certainly could have a bright future ahead of him.

Heavy Breathing: You can’t get much more attractive bloodlines than those of Heavy Breathing. He is by the prominent sire Giant’s Causeway and out the Gone West mare Takesmybreathaway, which makes Heavy Breathing a full brother to the grade one-winning Frost Giant and a half-brother to the stakes-winning Breathless Storm. Takesmybreathaway is a half-sister to the multiple stakes-winning Jet Around, the stakes-winning and group stakes-placed Mutakddim, and the grade one-placed Smooth Charmer. He is inbred to Northern Dancer and Secretariat through Storm Cat, which has produced horses such as the grade one winners Bluegrass Cat and D’Wildcat, as well as the grade three-winning Untouched Talent, who is the dam of the graded stakes-placed and 2012 Derby contender, Bodemeister. Heavy Breathing is a direct descendant of the great mare La Troienne, who is considered by many to be the most influential broodmare of all-time. Other direct descendants of La Troienne include the Kentucky Derby winners Go for Gin, Sea Hero, Smarty Jones, and Super Saver as well as the Hall of Famer Easy Goer and the multiple grade one-winning champions Mineshaft and Pleasant Tap. As if this isn’t impressive enough, he has the same third dam as Super Saver, which means from then on, he has the same dam line as the 2010 Derby winner.

Heavy Breathing made his first start on February 8, going seven and one-half furlongs over a dirt track at Gulfstream labeled ‘good.’ After settling off the pace, the chestnut colt struck to the lead at the top of the stretch before effortlessly drawing off to score by 7 ¾ lengths under Javier Castellano. He raced next in a nine-furlong allowance at Gulfstream – a distance that most three-year-olds have not covered yet. This time, he found a position closer to the lead, rating in second until the horses neared the end of the far turn. He took the lead and despite a threat from Big Screen, Heavy Breathing drew clear to a 4 ¼-length victory. He could make his next start in the Spiral Stakes (GIII) at Turfway Park on March 24, the same race that Animal Kingdom used as his final prep before his Derby triumph. Though Heavy Breathing is not Triple Crown-nominated, his connections still have a chance to nominate him for $6,000 on March 24. Hopefully they do so, as I would love to see him in the Triple Crown. After all, he is currently ranked eighth on my top ten list for the Kentucky Derby.

Paynter: Like Heavy Breathing, Paytner has an outstanding pedigree. If he was bred for one race in particular, it could very well be the Breeders’ Cup Classic (GI). His sire, Awesome Again, won the 1998 Classic and is the sire of several ten-furlong victors, including Awesome Gem (third-place finisher in the 2007 Classic), Game on Dude (runner-up in the 2011 Classic), Ghostzapper (winner of the 2004 Classic), and Ginger Punch (winner of the 2007 Breeders’ Cup Distaff). Paynter’s dam, Tizso, is a full sister to the only horse to ever win the Classic twice, Tiznow. The cross on which Paynter is bred is similar to the cross that produced the Horse of the Year Ghostzapper. He is also very similarly bred to the stakes-winning and graded stakes-placed Awesome Patriot, who is also by Awesome Again and is by a full sister to Tiznow and Tizso (Paynter’s dam). Tizso is also the dam of the graded stakes-winning Tiz West. Through Tizso, Paynter traces back to the Reine De Course mares Blue Canary and Papila, the latter of which is the dam of the champion Crimson Satan. This dam line stems from female family twenty-six, which has produced the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe-winning Trempolino and the Australian Hall of Famer Gloaming.

Paynter has only raced once, when he made his debut on February 18 in a five and one-half furlong maiden special weight at Santa Anita. After trailing the four-horse field, Paynter drew away in the stretch to win by 4 ¼ lengths, performing very professionally despite the fact that his forelock became unbraided and flew into his ear, causing him to shake his head. With any luck, Paynter will acquire sufficient graded stakes earnings in order to earn a position in the starting gate on the first Saturday of May. He is currently ranked ninth on my Derby list, after all.

Street Life: This is yet another colt by Street Sense, who is clearly becoming a very productive sire. Street Life’s dam, Stone Hope, is by the 1996 Kentucky Derby winner, Grindstone, and out of a mare who also produced Brilliant, a multiple graded stakes winner. The cross on which Street Life was produced is quite similar to the cross that produced the grade one winners Aruna, Deepak, and J.B.’s Thunder. Street Life hails from female family sixteen, a rich family that has produced the likes of the champions Authorized, Ginger Punch, Holy Bull, and Orientate, as well as the popular grade one winners Barbaro and Hard Spun.

Street Life’s debut was disappointing, as he finished eighth in a field of twelve in a six-furlong Gulfstream maiden special weight. After being shipped to Aqueduct to face easier company, the colt closed impressively to score by an easy 2 ½ lengths while drawing away in hand. He completed the mile and seventy yards in an unspectacular 1:45.20, but made a remarkable stretch run to score. His race record may not be breathtaking, but the way he covered ground in his second start was. This is a colt with talent and a pedigree to back him up.

Whinston: A colt I have followed since the beginning of his career, Stonestreet Stables’ Whinston is by Pomeroy, the multiple grade one-winning sire of successful horses such as the multiple graded stakes-winning horses Flashpoint and Pomeroys Pistol, the multiple stakes-winning and graded stakes-placed Positive Response, and the stakes-winning Mel Beach. A talented sprinter himself, Pomeroy has excelled at siring one-turn horses. Whinston’s dam, Leah’s Angel, has also produced the graded stakes-winning Expect an Angel and the multiple stakes-placed Tontine Too. Whinston descends from female family number five, the same family that produced the great champions Afleet Alex, Kona Gold, Hoist the Flag, Native Dancer, Nureyev, Pleasant Colony, Sadler’s Wells, and Seabiscuit.

Whinston was purchased as a juvenile in March of 2011 at the Barretts Equine Limited Sale of Selected Two-Year-Olds in Training as the sale-topper of $625,000. He was purchased by Stonestreet Stables of Curlin and Rachel Alexandra fame, who placed the colt in the hands of trainer Steve Asmussen. He made his racing debut in June at Churchill Downs, finishing fourth behind the impressive Brown Eyed Jozi. Defeated by Whinston in his debut was the eventual Remsen Stakes (GII) winner, O’Prado Again. Whinston started next in a five and one-half furlong maiden at Saratoga, finishing second behind the future stakes-placed horse Laurie’s Rocket. Crossing the wire behind Whinston was the eventual stakes-placed How Do I Win. Whinston was not seen again until March 10, when he made his sophomore debut at Oaklawn Park. After setting the pace, the bay colt effortlessly drew clear to win by an easy 2 ¼ lengths, completing the final eighth of the six-furlong race in 12.25 seconds. Whinston certainly has the potential to become a very profitable one-turn horse.

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Derby Top Ten #7

We are less than sixty days out from the most anticipated race of the year, the Kentucky Derby (GI). The prep races have been heating up, becoming crucial for Derby contenders. This crop of three-year-olds looks to have plenty of depth to it and there already seem to be plenty of human interest stories involved. The Kentucky Derby is, like usual, shaping up to be a tremendous race.

This is the list of my top ten 2012 Kentucky Derby contenders as of March 12. This one required some very tough decisions and I feel as if the last three could be in any order or replaced by a number of the honorable mentions. The top horse has not changed since the first top ten list, however.

1. Union Rags: Though his pedigree is not glowing with stamina, it does give hints that he will be able to get the Derby distance. In addition, the way this colt runs hints that he wants more ground. He has an extremely powerful, keen way of going. His race in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (GII) was very professional and he seems to have matured. He is being pointed toward the Florida Derby (GI) at Gulfstream Park on March 31. For more on why he is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.

2. Creative Cause: Though he did not run very straight in the stretch of the San Felipe Stakes (GII) on March 10, the way he accelerated was breathtaking. He faced a tough horse in Bodemeister, but once their noses became even, the son of Giant’s Causeway effortlessly dug in to draw away to a three-quarters of a length victory before galloping out very impressively. In fact, it seemed as if he was just getting started when he crossed the finish line. The final time for a mile and one-sixteenth was an impressive 1:41.84. Not only did his performance in the San Felipe show that he wants to run all day, but so does his pedigree. A successful router himself, Giant’s Causeway has sired many prosperous distance horses, such as Giant Oak, Heatseeker, and Swift Temper. For more on why he is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.

3. El Padrino: He has a great pedigree for the Derby, as well as an advantageous off-the-pace running style. He clearly has plenty of heart and determination, as he displayed in winning the Risen Star Stakes (GII). He could run next in either the Florida Derby (GI) on March 31 or the Louisiana Derby (GII) on April 1. For more on why he is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.

4. I’ll Have Another: His Robert B. Lewis (GII) win was very impressive, as was the work he had between races on March 3. His pedigree suggests that he should appreciate longer distances, as he is by the Travers Stakes (GI)-winning Flower Alley and out of an Arch mare. He is expected to run next in the Santa Anita Derby (GI) on April 7.

5. Bodemeister: He ran an extremely game second to Creative Cause in the San Felipe, giving the gray colt all he had in the stretch before finishing behind him by three-quarters of a length. He showed in that race that he does not need the lead and though he was a bit rank the first quarter of a mile, he eventually seemed to relax. He drifted out in late stretch, which may hint that he was getting tired, but it was only his third start and the toughest of his career at that. His pedigree is full of stamina and he is learning more with every start. I have been very high on him since his maiden win and am not at all surprised with how well he ran on Saturday.

6. Mark Valeski: In his runner-up finish behind El Padrino in the Risen Star Stakes (GII), Mark Valeski proved that he has grit. In addition, his pedigree is full of stamina, as he is by the runner-up in the 2002 Kentucky Derby, Proud Citizen, and out of a Fortunate Prospect mare. As mentioned in the previous Derby Top Ten, Fortunate Prospect is also the grandsire of this year’s Santa Anita Handicap (GI) winner, Ron the Greek. He may be seen next in the Louisiana Derby (GII) on April 1.

7. Dullahan: He’s already proven that he can compete against the best, as he won the Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity (GI) last October before finishing fourth behind Hansen, Union Rags, and Creative Cause in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI). After a slight illness early in 2012, he kicked off his sophomore campaign with a good debut in the Palm Beach Stakes (GIII) on the turf, closing well to finish second behind Howe Great by a length. The winner was sharper than Dullahan, having already started this year, while Dullahan needed to get a race in. It is obvious that he is bred for the Derby, as he is out of Mining My Own, the dam of the 2009 Kentucky Derby (GI) winner, Mine That Bird. Trainer Dale Romans – who finished fourth in the Derby last year with Shackleford and third in 2010 with Paddy O’Prado – is pointing him toward the Blue Grass Stakes (GI) at Keeneland Racecourse on April 14.

8. Heavy Breathing: He is making his first appearance on this list, simply because I just discovered him. His pedigree is one of the most remarkable I've ever seen and the digger I deep while studying his bloodlines, the more impressed I am. His last two starts have come at Gulfstream Park - one in a seven and one-half furlong maiden special weight and one in nine-furlong allowance - and have been extremely impressive. His win in the mile and one-eighth allowance showed that he is ready for more ground and his pedigree hints that more distance will not be a problem. He will likely start next in the Spiral Stakes (GIII) on March 24 at Turfway Park, the same race that produced last year's Derby winner. Expect him to be spotlighted soon.

9. Paynter: He’s very highly ranked for a horse who has only raced once and has no graded stakes earnings, but I feel as if he is a future star. The way he won his debut was tremendously impressive and despite his forelock blowing into his ear and causing him to shake his head, he was very professional. By the Breeders’ Cup Classic (GI)-winning Awesome Again – who has produced several ten-furlong winners, including Awesome Gem, Game on Dude, Ghostzapper, and Ginger Punch – and out of a full-sister to the two-time Breeders’ Cup Classic (GI)-winning Tiznow, Paytner is by all means bred for distance and top-class races. He will need some thorough training to get him ready for longer distances and a race in which he can garner plentiful graded stakes earnings. I would love to see him make the Kentucky Derby, so hopefully he will make his graded stakes debut soon.

10. Hansen: He is clearly talented and has heart, but his ability to get ten furlongs is hazy. His sire, Tapit, has only sired one ten-furlong winner and his dam, Stormy Sunday, was never victorious at a distance longer than six furlongs. In fact, Hansen’s second dam never produced a foal that won farther than one mile. He’s an impressive horse and has matured, but there’s more to a racehorse than its flashiness. He is likely to make his final prep in the Wood Memorial Stakes (GI) on April 7.

Honorable Mentions:

Alpha: Rather than staying in New York, Alpha is headed for the Florida Derby (GI) for his final Derby prep race. This is likely a good move and not just because many view the Wood Memorial as a cursed race, but because he will face stiffer competition for his last start before the toughest race of his career. He has not been beating much in New York, but if he performs well against the tough horses lined up for the Florida Derby, he will solidify himself as a top Derby contender. Nonetheless, I am doubtful of how he will contend against the likes of Union Rags and others.

Castaway: The way he runs and his pedigree hint that he will enjoy longer distances. He was slower than Secret Circle in the Southwest Stakes (GIII) and when they worked together on Saturday, Secret Circle easily outworked him and galloped out far ahead of him. He will likely be seen next in the Sunland Derby (GIII) on March 25.

Gemologist: Rather than making his first three-year-old start in the Rebel, Gemologist will race for the first time in 2012 on March 16 in a one-mile allowance at Gulfstream. This decision was made due to problems with travel plans, but it is discouraging that Gemologist will only get an eight-furlong race into him rather than the extra sixteenth of a mile he would race over in the Rebel. He will need to run a spectacular race in Friday’s allowance.

Howe Great: He is considered by many to solely be a turf horse, but so was Animal Kingdom before he won the Kentucky Derby last year. Another similarity between the two is that they have the same connections: Team Valor International, Graham Motion, and John Velazquez. However, unlike Animal Kingdom, Howe Great has already started over the dirt. In fact, the first two races of his career came over conventional dirt: a second-place finish in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Parx Racing and a victory in a six and one-half furlong maiden special weight over the same track. He shipped to Gulfstream Park for the winter, reeling off victories in a mile and one-sixteenth turf allowance, the Kitten’s Joy Stakes, and the Palm Beach Stakes (GIII). In the latter race, he proved that he could rate rather than set the pace like he had in his past two starts. By the group one-winning son of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes-winning Sunday Silence in Hat Trick – who was a champion miler in Japan – and out of a Western Winter – who never won beyond seven furlongs – mare, there does not seem to be much stamina in his pedigree. He has been successful at a mile and one-sixteenth and will add another sixteenth in the Blue Grass Stakes (GI). However, the Blue Grass is a full furlong shorter than the Kentucky Derby. Howe Great is talented, but I am not overly confident in his ability to go much longer.

Prospective: After winning the Grey Stakes (GIII) at Woodbine at two, he faced top two-year-olds – many of which are now on this list – in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI). He was never a threat in the prestigious race and finished last. He has great form at Tampa Bay Downs, with a win in the Pasco Stakes, a runner-up finish in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (GIII), and a win in the Tampa Bay Derby (GII), but I am unsure of how he will fare against the top horses of the same age at Churchill Downs. Last time he faced them, it did not turn out well.

Secret Circle: He’s talented and fast, but, even though his pedigree is full of stamina, he doesn’t seem to want much more ground. On Saturday, he had a beautiful six-furlong work in company with Castaway, easily drawing away from the other colt and galloping out far ahead of him. This is very encouraging, as it could hint that he is growing more accustomed to longer distances. He could be seen next in the Rebel Stakes (GII) on March 17.

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