Final 2012 Derby Top Ten (#14)

Countdown to Derby Day: 5 Days 

The Kentucky Derby. It’s the most anticipated race of the year, the one that immortalizes whatever horse wins the race more than any other race is capable of. Thousands of fans flock to Louisville, Kentucky each year to watch twenty exclusive Thoroughbreds contest in the greatest race in the world while millions tune in on their televisions across the world to watch the Run for the Roses. The Kentucky Derby is the race that defines the sport of horse racing, and it is less than a week away.

In the past few weeks, my Derby Top Ten has been very tightly packed as far as ranking the horses goes. The top eight – yes, eight – are all horses I believe have a very good chance to win the Derby. The final works, as expected, played a major role in the final rankings of these horses. Though this is the final Derby Top Ten of 2012, a final field analysis of the Derby will be posted later this week.

Here is my final top ten list of 2012 Kentucky Derby contenders (as of April 30):

1. Union Rags: He was impressive as soon as he arrived at Churchill Downs, displaying his beautiful bay frame that has clearly filled out and matured. In his first gallop over the track since arriving on Thursday, the son of Dixie Union effortlessly skipped over the track. While training amongst other Derby hopefuls at Churchill Downs, I saw him as a man among boys. His final work was considered by many, including me, to be the most impressive of Saturday’s works. He posted a remarkable final time of 59.80 for five furlongs and galloped out in an notable 1:13 4/5 . According to rider Julien Leparoux in his blog post on ESPN, the colt finished very strongly and could’ve galloped out in 1:12, but plans were for the bay three-year-old to take it easy. By Dixie Union and out of a Gone West mare, Union Rags does not possess bloodlines that scream stamina and distance, but they do appear as if they will allow him to go the Derby distance when combined with his obvious talent and heart. For more on why Union Rags is a top Kentucky Derby contender, including more information on his racing record and pedigree, please click here.

2. Bodemeister: A colt I have followed since he broke his maiden, Bodemeister may very well be the most brilliant – or at least among the most brilliant – of this group. However, he just may be hindered by the quick pace that is sure to form, especially because of Trinniberg’s participation in the race. Yet, his connections believe that this colt is capable of rating off the pace. And he certainly has connections that can be respected and trusted, as both his trainer, Bob Baffert, and jockey, Mike Smith, are members of the Hall of Fame. Should he settle off the lead in the Derby, we could be in for a treat. A son of Empire Maker and the graded stakes-winning Storm Cat mare Untouched Talent, Bodemeister also has the pedigree to aid him in his Kentucky Derby expedition. He was among those that had very remarkable final works for the Kentucky Derby, galloping effortlessly over a muddy track en route to a final time of 59.60 for five furlongs. For more on why Bodemeister is a top Kentucky Derby contender, including more information on his racing record and pedigree, please click here.

3. Creative Cause: He has been moved above I’ll Have Another, simply because he has already performed well over Churchill Downs' dirt surface and got a work in over the Downs’ dirt, whereas I’ll Have Another made his final work at Hollywood Park. By Giant’s Causeway and out of a grade one-winning mare whose dam is a daughter of Skywalker, Creative Cause has a pedigree that implies that he will have no problem with the Derby distance. He also has the talent to run a spectacular race in the toughest race of his life, as he has never finished out of the money. Despite having a shoe issue when he arrived at Churchill Downs two days ago, he worked a tremendous half-mile in 47.80, appearing to handle the surface very well. Creative Cause poses a huge threat in the Kentucky Derby. For more on why Creative Cause is a top Kentucky Derby contender, including more information on his racing record and pedigree, please click here.

4. I’ll Have Another: News that the colt had had extracorporeal shock wave therapy on his topline due to soreness in his back planted seeds of worry into the minds of many. However, trainer Doug O’Neill voiced that nothing is wrong with the colt and that he is doing just fine. I find this extremely easy to believe, as – though I have not used shock wave therapy – my own horses sometimes have soreness in their backs that must be treated and they often perform even better after treatment. Also, he breezed a nice six furlongs in 1:13 4/5 at Hollywood Park in his final work for the Derby following the shock wave therapy. I’ll Have Another, a result of the mating between Flower Alley and an Arch mare, has the bloodlines to back him up for ten furlongs. In addition, he is on a road of improvement and is certainly a gifted colt. For more on why I’ll Have Another is a top Kentucky Derby contender, including more information on his racing record and pedigree, please click here.

5. Went the Day Well: Carrying the same connections as the 2011 Kentucky Derby victor, Animal Kingdom, back to Louisville, Went the Day Well is coming off an impressive victory in the Spiral Stakes (GIII) – just like Animal Kingdom did. Also like last year’s Derby winner, Went the Day Well made his final preparation the Saturday before the Derby and impressed many while doing so. The bay colt completed five furlongs in 1:01 seconds flat, moving over the dirt surface at Churchill Downs beautifully. As a son of Derby runner-up Proud Citizen and the Tiznow mare Tiz Maie’s Day, Went the Day Well will likely relish the ten-furlong distance of the Kentucky Derby. His magnificent final work, combined with his obvious racing talent and stamina-based pedigree, is what moved him up so high on this list. For more on why Went the Day Well is a top Kentucky Derby contender, including more information on his racing record and pedigree, please click here.

6. Gemologist: Undefeated with two wins at Churchill Downs to his credit, Gemologist is clearly ahead of the others in several fields. However, most of the final times in his races have not been exactly spectacular, though he completed a brisk mile in his effortless open allowance victory at Gulfstream. Not only is he unbeaten and gifted, but he has a stamina-based pedigree with Tiznow as his sire and a Mr. Prospector mare that descends from female family ten as his dam. In his final preparation for the Kentucky Derby, Gemologist stayed at Palm Meadows Training Center in Florida to post a half-mile work in 50.39. Though this final time may be a bit disappointing, it must be noted that it was performed over an off track. I would have preferred for him to have his final tune-up at Churchill Downs, but it is certainly to his advantage that he has already been victorious there twice. For more on why Gemologist is a top Kentucky Derby contender, including more information on his racing record and pedigree, please click here.

7. Dullahan: Though he has never won on dirt, he has turned in good performances over Churchill’s main track and has gotten more training over the Louisville track than most Derby contenders. Trainer Dale Romans expressed that Dullahan likes the Churchill surface, which is the same conventional dirt oval over which the colt ran a rallying fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI). However, in his final work for the Run for the Roses, the chestnut colt didn’t appear to handle the dirt track as effortlessly as I wanted to see him handle it, carrying his head a bit higher than usual and moving a bit too roughly, as if he was working too hard to get a grip on the track. This reinforces the worry that he may be a solely a turf and grass horse, but it is an advantage that he has gotten more time to adapt to and work over the track than most others. As a half-brother to Mine That Bird, it is nearly completely certain that Dullahan will be competitive at ten furlongs. For more on why Dullahan is a top Kentucky Derby contender, including more information on his racing record and pedigree, please click here.

8. Alpha: People seem to view him as an unlucky horse, between his gate troubles, bleeding in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, indecisive road to the Derby, and the laceration that became infected after his runner-up finish in the Wood Memorial Stakes (GI). However, he has only run one bad race in his life and that was his disappointing but understandably poor performance in the Juvenile. Since then, he has not finished out of the money. Though I would like to see him train more over the Churchill surface, it is encouraging that the colt has trained and raced on it before, even though it was with a unsatisfactory result. Alpha is bred for Triple Crown distances, being by A.P. Indy’s impressive son Bernardini and out of the stakes-winning mare at eleven furlongs, Nijinsky II’s daughter Munnaya. His final work was a brisk 59.54 seconds for five furlongs over Belmont Park’s training track on Saturday. For more on why Alpha is a top Kentucky Derby contender, including more information on his racing record and pedigree, please click here.

9. Daddy Nose Best: Though he has not fared extremely well against the best of competition, this Steve Asmussen trainee has been impressive this year, winning two graded stakes on two different surfaces. Since shipping from Santa Anita to Churchill approximately a month ago, Daddy Nose Best has had more recent works over the Churchill Downs dirt surface than any other Derby contender, and he has been covering the ground extremely well. In his final work, he looked exactly spectacular while traveling a half-mile in 49.40 for trainer Steve Asmussen, who does not work his horses very quickly. This impressive training over Churchill’s dirt could certainly give him a towering advantage.

10. Take Charge Indy: Despite the fact that many seem to worry about his front-running style, the only start in which he actually set the pace was in the Florida Derby (GI). With horses like Hansen, Bodemeister, and Trinniberg in the mix, Take Charge Indy will need to resort to his previous style of settling off the pace. He seems to have matured with age, but, of course, will need to run the best race he’s ever run in order to capture the Kentucky Derby. One of the most beautifully bred horses in this year’s group of horses pointing towards the Derby, Take Charge Indy is sired by the great A.P. Indy and is out of the multiple grade one-winning Dehere mare Take Charge Lady. Like many other contenders, I would prefer that the colt made his final work at Churchill Downs, but rather it came at Palm Meadows when he turned in a five-furlong work in 1:00.47. He will only gallop at Churchill in preparation for the Derby. For more on why Take Charge Indy is a top Kentucky Derby contender, including more information on his racing record and pedigree, please click here.

Honorable Mentions:

El Padrino: Practically forgotten about since his lackluster fourth-place performance in the Florida Derby (GI), it seems as if his impressive victories prior to that had been pushed aside. In winning the Risen Star Stakes (GII), El Padrino showed grit and determination as he defeated eventual Louisiana Derby (GII) runner-up, Mark Valeski, by a nose. Prior to that, he’d easily defeated future Florida Derby (GI)-winning Take Charge Indy in an allowance optional claiming at Gulfstream Park. I find it a bit discouraging that he will have little training time over Churchill, but it is, however, heartening that he should have plenty of incentive to handle the ten-furlong distance of the Derby, as his sire is A.P. Indy’s son Pulpit and his dam is by Giant’s Causeway. His final work came at Palm Meadows, in which he breezed a half-mile in 53.34 seconds. Though this time is very slow, it must be taken into consideration that he worked over a muddy track. Again, it is discouraging to me that he has not trained at Churchill Downs and will only get a small amount of galloping time over its dirt oval. For more on why El Padrino is a top Kentucky Derby contender, including more information on his racing record and pedigree, please click here.

Hansen: Last year’s two-year-old champion clearly has an affinity for the Churchill Downs dirt, having won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile over that surface last fall. He has also been training over Churchill Downs’ Trackside Training Center, which he trained over last year prior to capturing the Juvenile. His final work, in which he posted a time of 1:01.20 for five furlongs, came over that surface. Though he displayed that he could settle when winning the Gotham Stakes (GIII), he showed in the Blue Grass Stakes (GI) that he prefers to go to the lead and set quick fractions while being headstrong. This simply will not work for him in the Derby. You also have to do some digging to find major stamina influences in his pedigree, as he is by Tapit and out of the sprinting mare Stormy Sunday. He’s gifted, but the Kentucky Derby may not be the suitable race for him.

Mark Valeski: A very robust horse, Mark Valeski is coming off two impressive, hard-trying runner-up finishes at the Fair Grounds. He certainly has an excuse for losing the Louisiana Derby (GII), having lost a shoe, but because of that loss and the brief soreness he had from losing the shoe, he has been fairly forgotten about. He has been lightly training over Churchill Downs, displaying his imposing build, and though he looked good in his final work of 1:00.20 for five furlongs this morning, he may not run.

Optimizer: Though he is unpredictable in how well he will run, his final work was relatively noteworthy. Breezing over an off track, the bay colt completed five furlongs in 1:00.40.

Prospective: The Tampa Bay Derby (GIII) winner is entering the Derby off a disappointing finish in the Blue Grass Stakes (GI), but he has looked tremendous while training at Churchill Downs. He is a very muscular individual and though he may be outclassed in this field, he is still an magnificent specimen. Though a bit rank at the beginning of his 1:01.08 five-furlong work, he settled nicely and appeared very ready.

Sabercat: Though rather unimpressive in his 2012 starts, he did show some improvement when finishing third in the Arkansas Derby (GI). He has traveled well over the Churchill dirt and in his final work, he moved over the ground effortlessly en route to a 49.40-second half-mile breeze.

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Derby Top Ten #13

Countdown to Derby Day: 13 Days

The Kentucky Derby (GI) closes in on us quickly and before we know it, we are keeping our eyes focused on the starting gate nestled at the top of the stretch at Churchill Downs, waiting for a large field of high quality three-year-old Thoroughbreds to burst out of the gate to launch the greatest two minutes in sports. Though any of the horses can win, there is typically only a select few that spectators and experts believe have a legitimate chance to win. However, in 2012, a large amount of the horses pointing towards the Derby seem to have a realistic chance to triumph in the Run for the Roses. Though this makes it very difficult to rank them, it suggests that this year’s rendition of the Kentucky Derby will be one for the ages.

I feel as if any of my top seven could be ranked first and that each horse on this list has a valid chance at winning. The addition of Trinniberg, a sprinter, to the mix should benefit many of the horses who come from off the pace, but may harm the horses who prefer to be on the lead. This certainly played a role in the changes on this week’s list. The final works will also play a huge role, but when it comes down to it, we will not know until about two minutes after these Thoroughbreds break from the gate at Churchill Downs.

Here is my top ten list of 2012 Kentucky Derby contenders as of April 22:

1. Union Rags: He is full of sheer brilliance and when he’s on the top of his game, he is awfully difficult to defeat. Of course, he will need to run the best race he’s ever run in the Derby, but he clearly has the talent to run a tremendous race. This Michael Matz trainee, like Barbaro, made his penultimate work for the Kentucky Derby at Keeneland. In this work, the colt breezed a half-mile in an impressive time of 47.20 seconds. The work (which can be viewed here) is made even more remarkable by how effortlessly he moved. In fact, the work looked much slower than it actually was. He will soon ship to Churchill Downs for his final preparations, including his last breeze before the Derby, which will be a more serious work than Friday’s. He does have an advantage over many contenders regarding Churchill – he has already performed well over its dirt surface. For more on why he is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.

2. I’ll Have Another: On this list, he is just an extremely scant nose behind Union Rags. Already a very talented horse, he seems to just be getting better and better. His six-furlong work on Thursday at Hollywood Park went very well, in which trainer Doug O’Neill remarked that the colt grew stronger as he went along. He is expected to ship to Churchill Downs a week before the Derby, which is a shorter amount of time than I would like to see, but still gives the colt a decent amount of time to adapt to the Churchill surface. For more on why he is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.

3. Creative Cause: Bodemeister may have ran the most impressive race on the Derby trail this year, but Creative Cause defeated him prior to that race. Creative Cause is a horse who tries hard every time and as a result of his determination, he has not finished out of the money. He also comes with the package of a top Derby prospect: talent, a noteworthy performance over the Churchill dirt surface, the ability to settle off the pace, good acceleration, and a pedigree full of stamina. For more on why he is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.

4. Dullahan: Derby pedigree: check. Racing talent: check. Ability to come off the pace: check. Decent performances over Churchill dirt: check. Extra training time at Churchill: check. Improvement: check. Capable connections: check. Dullahan has everything you could want in a Kentucky Derby winner and certainly has a very reasonable chance to win, though he may be better on turf and synthetic. Like the other horses in the top four, Dullahan should benefit from the addition of Trinniberg. For more on why he is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.

5. Gemologist: Normally, an undefeated colt with two wins at Churchill Downs would be ranked first on this list. Gemologist is a member of my “Super Six,” or my top six horses on this list that could all be ranked first, but since this Kentucky Derby is shaping up to be immensely competitive, he is ranked fifth. Not only is he capable of dominant victories, but he has also proven that he can dig in and prevail because of his heart as well. Though not all of his times are spectacular, he has made it clear that he can post quick times. With a pedigree that will also back him up, Gemologist possesses many important qualities for a Derby prospect. Though he may be slightly affected by the addition of Trinniberg, he is capable of rating off the pace, so Trinninberg should have much less of an influence on him than horses such as Bodemeister or Hansen. For more on why he is a top Derby contender, please click here.

6. Bodemeister: It cannot be denied that his Arkansas Derby (GI) victory was absolutely brilliant and breathtaking. Though his wins have come in races in which he set the pace, Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith has expressed that he believes his mount is capable of rating. He will need to do so, especially with the addition of Trinniberg – a horse who sets quick fractions. If Bodemeister cannot learn to settle, his chances could certainly be harmed by the presence of Trinniberg. By Empire Maker and out of a Storm Cat mare, Bodemeister should have no problem with the Derby distance. Bodemeister could very well be ranked first, especially considering he will train over the Churchill surface longer than most Derby contenders, but instead, I rank him in a sixth that would earn him a position at the top if the group of Derby hopefuls this year wasn’t as deep as it is and if Trinniberg had not joined the mix. For more on why he is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.

7. Alpha: A very talented colt in his own right, Alpha is certainly a legitimate Derby competitor. Though his only start at Churchill Downs was a very poor finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvneile (GI), in which he finished behind many top Derby candidates, it is believed that he bled in that race. He has turned in nothing but good performances this season and is coming off an impressive second-place finish behind Gemologist in the Wood Memorial Stakes (GI). I do find it a bit discouraging, however, that he will make most of his Derby preparations at Belmont Park and will not ship to Churchill until April 30 and that he missed a bit of training time due to a laceration. I would prefer for him to have a longer amount of time to adapt to the Churchill dirt. Nonetheless, this colt is bred through and through for the Derby and just may be very underestimated. He will also benefit from the addition of Trinniberg. Do not forget about Alpha on Derby Day; he is an extremely talented horse.

8. Take Charge Indy: Both of his parents are grade one winners capable of winning at a mile and one-eighth or longer. His sire, the great A.P. Indy, was not only capable of winning the Belmont Stakes (GI, 12F) and Breeders’ Cup Classic (GI, 10F), but he was also capable of producing horses who could win at the same distances as well. Many believe, however, that Take Charge Indy may have distance limitations, partially because of his front-running style. But he does have an advantage that the others don’t: three-time Derby-winning jockey Calvin Borel.

9. Went the Day Well: Taking the same route as his stablemate, 2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom, to the Run for the Roses, Went the Day Well does have something Animal Kingdom didn’t: a victory over dirt. The way he strode home in the Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (GIII) – the same race Animal Kingdom won before triumphing in the Derby – was very impressive. He also worked well at Keeneland on Saturday, completing six furlongs in 1:14.40 despite dreary conditions. He will ship to Churchill soon.

10. Daddy Nose Best: He has definitely blossomed and is coming off of two impressive performances. However, he has not exactly fared well against the toughest competitors. But he does have experience over the Churchill dirt and is a great stretch runner.

Honorable Mentions:

El Padrino: He’s gritty and talented, but his fourth-place finish in the Florida Derby (GI) was rather flat. Though it was not a spectacular performance, El Padrino has already proven that he is a gifted colt.  Yet he seems to be more deserving than some of the horses that may keep him from getting into the Derby due to graded stakes earnings.

Hansen: He is a brilliant colt, but he has the terrible problem of too frequently going to the lead and setting blazing fractions without rating. This is something that will likely harm him in the Derby if he does so. Though many other horses have pedigrees that suggest more capability of getting the Derby distance than his does, Hansen may have enough stamina in his bloodlines to allow him to be victorious at ten furlongs. But most importantly, he will have to find the ability to settle in order to be triumphant at a mile and one-quarter.

Mark Valeski: He is clearly a hard-trying colt, but there is the worry that he’s a colt that tries hard each time but never prevails. Nonetheless, he could certainly be a profitable horse for handicappers on Derby Day.

Sabercat: His dull performance in the Rebel Stakes (GIII) may very well be a throw-out race, but even his third-place finish in the Arkansas Derby implies that he will have to run the best race he’s ever run to pull off a victory in the Kentucky Derby.

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Derby Top Ten #12

Countdown to Derby Day: 18 Days

As the Kentucky Derby (GI) approaches each year, each contender on the Derby trail is analyzed closely. Weeks before the Derby, we usually have an idea of how good of a crop the year’s sophomores are. This year, the crop appears to be extremely deep. The top contenders have repetitively performed well and still seem to be legitimate contenders as the days grow closer to the first Saturday in May.

In last week’s Derby Top Ten, I felt that my top five horses all had a valid case to take the top spot. This week, the list has become even more pretentious. Any of the top six could be ranked first, though the entire top ten list was very hard to order and I found myself frequently changing my mind. I find very few knocks for several of these contenders. The final works the contenders turn in could certainly change their position on this list. It would be no surprise if this year’s rendition of the Kentucky Derby – as well as this crop of three-year-olds – is talked about for decades to come.

Here is my top ten list of 2012 Kentucky Derby contenders as of April 16.

1. Union Rags: He’s regained his position at the top, simply because he just may be the most brilliant colt of this group. However, he will need to run the race of his life in the Derby, which of course the others will need to do as well. He and jockey Julien Leparoux likely learned much from their Florida Derby (GI) loss and whatever they learned, they will need to apply that to the Kentucky Derby. His position at the pinnacle is quite shaky, but it could become firmer if he works up to the Derby well. For more on why he is a top Derby contender, please click here.

2. I’ll Have Another: This colt is really coming into his own, seeming to be on a road of improvement on his way to the Derby. He is a horse who clearly enjoys to run and strives to finish in front. He is full of talent and comes with a pedigree fit for a Derby winner. He could certainly be underestimated compared to several of these top contenders, but he brings to the table many important qualities: the ability to rate off the pace, the capability of outdueling another horse in the stretch, the speed to finish quickly, the love of running, and obvious improvement. For more on why he is a top Derby contender, please click here.

3. Creative Cause: He has danced every dance and runs his heart out each time he goes to post. His pedigree is certainly suitable for a Kentucky Derby victor and he knows how to get the job done. He also possesses several important characteristics, including being able to settle off the pace, the ability of coming home quickly, the love of longer distances, and sheer talent. For more on why he is a top Derby contender, please click here.

4. Bodemeister: A colt I have followed since he broke his maiden, he received a huge confidence boost in his dominant Arkansas Derby (GI) win. Both of his victories have been absolute romps, which shows that this is a brilliant colt. He ran very gamely behind Creative Cause in the San Felipe Stakes (GII) earlier this year in his graded stakes debut. With the removal of blinkers in the Arkansas Derby, he effortlessly defeated a rather deep field. Some may find it worrisome that he may “bounce” off his overpowering win in the Arkansas Derby, but he has yet to run a poor race. Bodemeister is a horse with plenty of room of improvement, which is quite imposing considering how brilliant he has already proven himself to be.

5. Gemologist: An undefeated colt with a pedigree that will allow him to get the Derby distances, Gemologist is a serious contender. Though most of the final times of his races have not been overly impressive, he is capable of posting a quick final time, as he displayed at Gulfstream. He is not only talented, but he has the important quality of heart and grit. It is also significant that he already has two wins over the Churchill Downs dirt surface, something no other contender can say. For more on why he is a top Derby contender, please click here.

6. Dullahan: He only has two victories to his credit, both of which came at Keeneland in grade one races. This half-brother to the 2009 Kentucky Derby winner, Mine That Bird, triumphed in the Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity Stakes (GI) as a juvenile before finishing a closing fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI) behind Hansen, Union Rags, and Creative Cause. He has already proved this year that he has improved, as he finished second in a turf graded stakes at Gulfstream in his 2012 debut before charging late to defeat Hansen in the Blue Grass Stakes (GI) at Keeneland on Saturday. Though his only wins have come over the synthetic, he is bred for the dirt and has performed well over it. In addition, he undoubtedly has a Derby pedigree, being a half-brother to Mine That Bird. He is a valid contender.

7. Alpha: As talented as he has proven to be, seventh place seems to be a very low ranking for him. This just goes to show how contentious this year’s field for the Derby will be. His pedigree should allow him to get the Derby distance and his talent and determination should allow him to run extremely well. Alpha should definitely be taken seriously.

8. Take Charge Indy: Despite being undoubtedly bred for distance, this colt may have distance limitations due to his front-running style. He is talented by all means, but he will have to run the race of his life in the Kentucky Derby. But he certainly has a huge advantage with three-time Derby-winning jockey Calvin Borel aboard.

9. Went the Day Well: Bred for the Derby, this colt runs for the same connections as last year’s Derby victor, Animal Kingdom. He is already proven over dirt – something that Animal Kingdom wasn’t prior to the Run for the Roses. He is expected to make his final prep in this Saturday’s Lexington Stakes (GII) at Keeneland.

10. Daddy Nose Best: This Steve Asmussen trainee was a fairly talented grass juvenile, but has proved to be even more successful as a sophomore, winning over multiple surfaces in two graded stakes. Coming off a win in the Sunland Derby (GIII), he is quite a classy colt with plenty of determination and heart. He has exhibited an impressive stretch drive, but has not always fared extremely well against the highest quality of horses. However, when he faced tough, high-quality horses, he was running on the grass and he just might be better on dirt.

Honorable Mentions:

El Padrino: He was rather lackluster in his fourth-place effort in the Florida Derby and may not make it into the Derby starting gate due to a lack of graded stakes earnings, but if he somehow does find his way into the Run for the Roses, El Padrino will need to run back to his early 2012 form.

Hansen: He has never finished worse than second and is clearly one of the most talented three-year-olds of 2012. However, he still has the issue of setting too quick of a pace before falling apart in late stretch. His pedigree may also restrict him from getting the ten-furlong distance of the Derby. Yet he did make his final prep before his victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile – run at Churchill – over Polytrack and made his final prep before the Kentucky Derby over the same surface. He could certainly perform well, but his front-running style and questionable pedigree make his chances quite uncertain.

Mark Valeski: He is a gritty, talented colt, but it is disappointing that he could not get past the longshot Hero of Order, who ran poorly in the Blue Grass, last out. This, of course, could be due to losing a shoe, but he also may be a horse that tries hard each time he races but can never quite cross the wire first. Nevertheless, he is a hard-trying colt.

Sabercat: A colt that definitely has the earnings for the Kentucky Derby, Sabercat rebounded off his disappointing Rebel Stakes (GII) performance to finish a closing third-place in the Arkansas Derby. He may have found his groove again, but will have to run a tremendous race to be a threat in the Kentucky Derby.

Secret Circle: Though I declared him my Derby colt as soon as he broke his maiden, I believe Bob Baffert should restrict this colt to races under ten furlongs. Though bred for longer distances, Secret Circle seems to have the mindset for middle-distance races or sprints. But if his connections do intend to enter the Derby with him, they certainly have a talented, determined colt on their hands.

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Derby Top Ten #11

Countdown to Derby Day: 25 Days 

The Kentucky Derby (GI) trail is the most unpredictable course of events in all of horse racing. You can begin the year with a solid favorite like Union Rags, but four weeks out, you may end up with your number one horse as a horse that commenced the year with a victory as a huge longshot. By Derby day, things could very easily change drastically yet again.

I feel that my top five horses all have a valid case to take the top spot, but I had to rank them somehow. If they were all to be crossing a finish line, it would be a very tight blanket finish.

Here is my top ten list of 2012 Kentucky Derby contenders as of April 10.

1. I’ll Have Another: Many believed his dominant longshot victory in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (GII) to be a fluke, but the colt impressed me immediately in that win. He first appeared on my second Derby Top Ten and has been ranked in the top six ever since, his highest ranking coming when he was ranked in fourth twice. This is a colt who clearly loves to run, as he displayed in his Lewis victory. Though he romped in the Lewis, his Santa Anita Derby (GI) triumph was even more impressive, as the son of Flower Alley defeated a tougher field and completed the nine-furlong race in its fastest clocking since Point Given’s victory in 2001. He outkicked the previously top-ranked Creative Cause, his long stride allowing him to outduel the gray colt. He displayed great grit and determination, as well as a clear love of running. This colt just seems to be getting better and better and has every right to be number one.

2. Creative Cause: This colt is still a brilliant runner and is bred extremely well for distance. Though discouraging that he could not prevail in his battle with I’ll Have Another, the colt – as usual – turned in an excellent performance. Nonetheless, he was beat fair and square. It matters more in Louisville, however, and he still certainly has a valid shot at a Derby triumph. For more on why he is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.

3. Union Rags: Though disappointing that he lost the Florida Derby (GI), it is not discouraging. In fact, I believe the colt and Julien Leparoux learned plenty from the loss. Union Rags also proved that he is ready for more ground, as he found his best stride in the final sixteenth before galloping out ahead of the others. It could also be a good thing that he lost his final prep, as thirteen of the last twenty Kentucky Derby contenders did not win their last race before the Derby. For more on why Union Rags is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.

4. Take Charge Indy: With A.P. Indy as his sire and the multiple grade one-winning daughter of Dehere, Take Charge Lady, as his dam, Take Charge Indy’s pedigree suggests that Triple Crown distances will not be an issue. However, his front-running style just might. Nonetheless, with three-time Kentucky Derby-winning rider Calvin Borel as his jockey, Take Charge Indy certainly has an advantage that the others don’t.

5. Gemologist: There are mixed feelings surrounding Gemologist’s victory in the Wood Memorial Stakes (GI), but I believe they should mostly be positive feelings. The time was certainly not spectacular and was over three seconds slower than I’ll Have Another’s Santa Anita Derby win. Though Santa Anita is a much faster-playing track than Aqueduct, the one-mile fraction in the Wood was over two seconds slower than the final time of the Comely Stakes (GIII) for fillies over the same track. Nonetheless, Gemologist showed a great amount of heart. He appeared to be struggling in late stretch and it seemed as if Alpha would fly right past him, but the son of Tiznow found another gear to hold off Alpha, exhibiting the important quality of not wanting a horse to go past him. Being undefeated, the colt needed a test in his final prep before the Derby and he got just that. Don’t let the slow time of the Wood be too discouraging; this colt is capable of producing a fast time – he did so in his dominant allowance win at Gulfstream. He also has an advantage no other Derby contender has: two victories at Churchill Downs. For more on why he is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.

6. Alpha: Though he had had quite a victorious season prior to the Wood, I felt that he needed to prove himself in New York’s premier Derby prep. He did just that, running his heart out to finish second by a neck behind Gemologist. He rallied very well but just could not get past Gemologist. I could criticize him for this, but, as aforementioned, Gemologist seems to be the type of horse that doesn’t want another to pass him. Nonetheless, Alpha ran a very good race on Saturday and stamped himself as a serious Derby contender.

7. Bodemeister: He has some growing up to do, but Saturday’s Arkansas Derby (GI) should be a good learning experience for him. This race is expected to be an easier task for him than the Santa Anita Derby would have been. He already has a tough test under his belt from his runner-up finish in the San Felipe Stakes (GII), so it could certainly be a plus that his race in the Arkansas Derby is expected to be fairly easy, though he is facing tough stablemate Secret Circle. An easy start could be a great confidence boost and learning experience for this improving Bob Baffert trainee. But, more than likely, he will need a victory.

8. Dullahan: The Blue Grass Stakes (GI) on Saturday will tell us much more about him, but this half-brother to Mine That Bird has the right pedigree and what appears to be the right racing talent to be a top Derby threat. Trainer Dale Romans has had good performances in the past two Derbies, with a fourth-place finish by Shackleford last year and a third-place result by Paddy O’Prado in 2010. Perhaps this is his year. Still, Dullahan will have to run the race of his life.

9. Hansen: As I’ve said about this colt for quite a long time now, his talent cannot be denied. However, his ability to get ten furlongs is doubtful. He may be maturing, but like many others, we’ll know more after this weekend. In addition, it could certainly be to his advantage that he is making his final prep before the Derby over Polytrack, as he made his final prep for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI) over Polytrack before taking the Juvenile at Churchill.

10. Went the Day Well: By Derby runner-up Proud Citizen and out of a daughter of the two-time Breeders’ Cup Classic (GI)-winning Tiznow, this colt certainly seems to have the bloodlines that will allow him to conquer the Derby distance. He, unlike his connections’ Derby-winning Animal Kingdom, has already won over a dirt surface. He is likely to make his final start for the Kentucky Derby in the Lexington Stakes (GII) at Keeneland two weeks before the Run for the Roses.

Honorable Mentions:

Daddy Nose Best: Fairly successful over grass courses as a two-year-old, Daddy Nose Best has proved versatile as a sophomore, winning a graded stakes on the synthetic and on the dirt. He has displayed much grit and an impressive stretch drive. The main worry is that he has not faced the highest quality horses yet this year and when he did on the grass at the Breeders’ Cup, he did not exactly fare extremely well. Nonetheless, this Steve Asmussen trainee seems to be blossoming.

El Padrino: His stretch rally in the Florida Derby was uninspiring, which is discouraging in relation to his chances in the Kentucky Derby. Nonetheless, El Padrino is a talented horse with a distance-based pedigree. Still, he needs to step it up.

Heavy Breathing: He is quite inexperienced and that certainly could have played into his lackluster third-place finish in the Spiral Stakes (GIII), but if his pedigree is any suggestion, this colt has the potential to become a star. Should he get in one more start that will allow him to acquire adequate graded stakes earnings (he would likely need a victory), perhaps he could be a threat in the Derby. But, like his stablemate El Padrino, he will need to step it up.

Hero of Order: I don’t think he really wants to go much longer and I don’t know that he’s as talented as so many others. In addition, since he is not nominated, he may not make it into the Derby field anyways.

Howe Great: He can run on both dirt and turf and though he has Sunday Silence as his grandsire, his pedigree doesn’t give much more suggestion for distance. We’ll learn more about him in the Blue Grass on Saturday.

Mark Valeski: It has been declared that his lameness after the Louisiana Derby is not an issue. He is a game horse, but he may be the type that tries hard every time but never quite gets there. Nonetheless, he is tough.

Optimizer: He’ll need to prove himself in Saturday’s Arkansas Derby, showing that his impressive runner-up finish in the Rebel Stakes (GII) was not a fluke.

Prospective: We’ll know much more about him after Saturday, when he takes on several top-class horses in the Blue Grass. With a good performance, he could prove that he’s not just a Tampa Bay Downs hit. But it must be taken into consideration that, even if he runs a great race on Saturday, a good performance could be due to the fact that the race is on the synthetic, as that is the surface he excelled over as a juvenile.

Secret Circle: Still a personal favorite of mine, this colt clearly has a will to win. He will face a tougher field in the Arkansas Derby than he has in his past two starts, but if he’s as tenacious as he has been and can live up to the stamina in his pedigree, then Secret Circle could certainly turn in another good performance. This race should tell us if he’s going to the Kentucky Derby or not.

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Derby Top Ten #10

Countdown to Derby Day: 32 Days

Here is my top ten list of 2012 Kentucky Derby contenders as of April 2. Things have changed!

1. Creative Cause: He is bred to run all day, which is certainly an advantage for him. He has learning to do – mostly to run straight – but is clearly a brilliant colt. He seems to be improving and has a tough task in Saturday’s Santa Anita Derby (GI), but if he’s as talented as he has appeared to be, we just may see something special. For more on why he is a top Derby contender, please click here.

2. Union Rags: His third-place finish was likely as a result of a rough trip. He was pressured by El Padrino throughout the race and got caught in traffic around the far turn. When Leparoux was searching for a seam as they sat behind a wall of horses, Union Rags lost his momentum. Yet the way he accelerated once he did find room was quite impressive. What is very encouraging about his Florida Derby (GI) performance was that he galloped past the others after the wire, showing that he is ready for more ground. This colt is brilliant and just came up unlucky on Saturday. Don’t discount him. For more on why he is a top Derby contender, please click here.

3. Take Charge Indy: By A.P. Indy and out of the multiple grade one-winning mare Take Charge Lady, this colt should have no problem with the Derby distance. He has always performed well and ran the race of his life in the Florida Derby (GI), leading from start to finish to win by a length. Perhaps his biggest advantage at the Derby other than his pedigree is his jockey, Calvin Borel – the winner of three Kentucky Derbies. He is a serious contender.

4. Gemologist: He has noticeably improved since his juvenile year, which is tremendously important. He will need to show that he can compete against high-class competition in the Wood Memorial Stakes (GI) this Saturday for two main reasons: to prove himself and to gain essential graded stakes earnings. He is already a graded stakes winner, but he certainly needs more earnings to be allowed into the Kentucky Derby starting gate. Possibly his most intimidating advantage over other hopefuls is his pair of victories at Churchill Downs. For more on why he is a top Derby contender, please click here.

5. I’ll Have Another: He has much to prove this Saturday in the Santa Anita Derby, but one thing is clear about this colt: he loves to run. He was impressive in the Robert B. Lewis (GIII), romping with his ears pricked. However, he has not started since that graded stakes triumph in February. Should he perform well against the likes of Creative Cause and Paynter this weekend, it is onto Louisville, where the distance of the Derby should not be a problem for this son of Flower Alley.

6. Bodemeister: Yet another blossoming colt, Bodemeister still has some maturing to do. He is taking an easier path to the Kentucky Derby by making his final prep in the Arkansas Derby (GI) on April 14, but that race will also allow him to more likely acquire obligatory graded stakes earnings. He is certainly a talented, gutsy horse with bloodlines that should allow him to go long.

7. Dullahan: As a half-brother to Mine That Bird, the “Does his pedigree allow him to get the Derby distance?” question is dismissed. He will face some very tough horses, such as Hansen and Howe Great, in the Blue Grass Stakes (GI) on April 14, but it is, of course, at the same track at which he captured the Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity (GI).

8. Hansen: His talent is unquestionable, his beauty even more firm, but his ability to get the Derby distance is slightly shaky. He may be too speedy, though he has proved that he can rate off the pace. What looks to be his biggest test of the year is approaching: the Blue Grass on April 14. He will need to turn in a remarkable performance.

9. Went the Day Well: His connections have “been there, done that.” But you can bet they wouldn’t mind doing it again. Went the Day Well has the same owner, trainer, and jockey combination as last year’s Derby winner, Animal Kingdom. However, he seems to be even more appealing that Animal Kingdom was. He has a very distance-based pedigree and has already won over dirt. He will also get one more prep than Animal Kingdom did, which could come in the Coolmore Lexington Stakes (GII) at Keeneland on April 21. I am very impressed by this colt and he has an extremely good chance to ascend on this list should his final prep go well.

10. Daddy Nose Best: He was a nice grass juvenile and has proved to be very versatile, winning graded stakes on both the synthetic and dirt this year. However, he has not always fared very well against high-class horses (he finished sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf). Yet he is on a roll and is flourishing under trainer Steve Asmussen.

Honorable Mentions:

Alpha: He will need to run an absolutely terrific race in the Wood Memorial Stakes this weekend. I am not yet fully convinced by him, but if he runs excellently on Saturday, he will surely be a top contender.

El Padrino: He ran a disappointing fourth in the Florida Derby and was certainly outkicked. His win in the Risen Star Stakes (GII) wasn’t very flattered by Mark Valeski’s runner-up finish behind and enormous longshot in the Louisiana Derby (GII). Nonetheless, El Padrino is a talented colt. But he needs to step it up.

Heavy Breathing: He finished a fading third in his first graded stakes attempt in the Spiral Stakes (GIII), but his royal pedigree suggests that he will be able to stretch out. He has one more chance to prove himself, as there is time for him to race once more before the Derby. Perhaps he will not make it to the Run for the Roses, but Heavy Breathing could certainly become something special down the line.

Hero of Order: His victory in the Louisiana Derby was extremely unexpected, as he paid over $220 to win. He was clearly decelerating down the stretch and his pedigree suggests that he doesn’t want to go much farther. It seems likely that he won’t make much impact on the running of the Kentucky Derby. In addition, he’s not nominated.

Howe Great: His grandsire may be Sunday Silence, but there is not much else support for Triple Crown distances in Howe Great’s pedigree. The colt is clearly talented and versatile, but I believe his connections have a better shot at repeating in the Derby with Went the Day Well.

Mark Valeski: He’s talented, but is he talented enough? He finished fourth behind Union Rags in their debuts before winning a maiden special weight and allowance optional claiming. He ran remarkably in his nose defeat behind El Padrino in the Risen Star, but when El Padrino ran an unimpressive fourth in the Florida Derby, he was not flattered. His defeat by a horse that paid $220.80 in the slow Louisiana Derby was not becoming, either. Hopefully he’s not the type that tries hard every time but doesn’t quite get there. It is also worrisome that he may have soundness issues after throwing a shoe in the Louisiana Derby.

Optimizer: His closing kick in the Rebel Stakes (GII) was impressive, but the race also set him up for such a performance. The colt has been very lackluster against top competition for the most part, so he will have to prove next out that his performance in the Rebel was not a fluke.

Paynter: As mentioned last time, he is only on this list for his talent. He is expected to run in this Saturday’s Santa Anita Derby (GI), which is a very huge, intimidating step up for him. He has only started once, winning a five and one-half furlong maiden special weight remarkably against a small field. Now he will go a mile and one-eighth against some of the best three-year-olds in California. Even if Paynter wins the Santa Anita Derby, I would prefer for the colt’s sake that his connections skip the Kentucky Derby with him.

Prospective: He clearly has an affinity for Tampa Bay Downs, but when he’s faced very tough competition in the past, he has not fared so well. He, like many others, will need to prove himself in his final prep for the Derby.

Street Life: He is obviously bred for the Derby and has been very impressive in his past two starts. Street Life’s start in the Wood Memorial this Saturday will determine whether he is going to the Derby or not. He will be contesting against the talented horses Alpha and Gemologist, which will not make it an easy race for him. But that is a good thing, as he needs to show that he is capable of being competitive against high-class horses before his connections even begin to think about shipping him to Louisville.

Some of the top contenders for the 2012 Kentucky Derby
All photos except for Alpha's by Terri Cage; Alpha's photo is by Mary Cage

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Derby Top Ten #9

Countdown to Derby Day: 38 Days

Here is my list of Kentucky Derby contenders as of March 27.

1. Union Rags: He has every reason to be in the top position, as he is clearly absolutely brilliant. He will need a spectacular performance in next weekend’s Florida Derby (GI), but if he’s anything like the Union Rags we’ve seen, he will have the perfect final prep for the Kentucky Derby. For more on why he is a top Derby contender, please click here.

2. Creative Cause: He clearly has plenty of stamina and raw talent. The way he was just beginning to accelerate at the end of the San Felipe Stakes (GII) was incredibly impressive, denoting that this colt is ready for more ground. He could not quite keep up with Union Rags and Hansen in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI), but he did gallop out ahead of them. For more on why he is a top Derby contender, please click here.

3. El Padrino: He is a tough, talented horse, but he will be on the top of his game in the Florida Derby against the likes of Union Rags. He is a versatile colt with plenty of potential, but will need to run well this weekend. For more on why he is a top Derby contender, please click here.

4. Gemologist: He is bred for ten furlongs, has obvious talent, and is improving. He will need to acquire more graded stakes earnings in order to make it the starting gate on the first Saturday in May, but if he does, it will be his third time to race over the Churchill Downs surface, which is more than any other Kentucky Derby hopeful. This gives him a huge advantage. For more on why he is a top Derby contender, please click here.

5. I’ll Have Another: It is discouraging that his connections are waiting so long for his final prep, as it would be benefical for him to get more than two preps into him. However, his win in the Robert B. Lewis (GIII) was very impressive, as he seemed to just be winning for fun. He will face a tough field in the Santa Anita Derby (GI) on April 7 and will need to run a tremendous race, but he certainly seems to have the talent to do so.

6. Bodemeister: He is also improving, which is extremely important. His race in the San Felipe was importantly, though he very well may have been growing fatigued near the end of the race. However, as mentioned, he is improving. His work on Friday was very impressive, as he had to maneuver nine other horses but still effortlessly outworked them all without any asking from Martin Garcia. He should not be underestimated.

7. Mark Valeski: Plain and simple, he will have to win or at least run a very remarkable race in the Louisiana Derby (GII) this weekend. He is clearly talented and full of heart, but he will need to continue to justify his position on this list. He could very well provide Rosie Napravnik with her second mount in the Kentucky Derby.

8. Dullahan: Obviously bred for the Derby, Dullahan has also proven to be talented. His final prep in the Blue Grass Stakes (GI) on April 14 will need to be an impressive effort, but he has already run well over the Keeneland surface, winning the Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity (GI) there.

9. Hansen: He is clearly a brilliant horse that loves to run and he has improved by learning 

to rate, but it is still uncertain whether he will get the Derby distance. His final prep, which will be in the Blue Grass, will be against a deep field, but he is already proven over the Polytrack. Also, Hansen has proved that racing over a Polytrack surface prior to making a start at Churchill Downs is a successful strategy for him. He won over Turfway’s Polytrack before triumphing in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill last year.

10. Went the Day Well: It was practically déjà vu when this colt won the Spiral Stakes (GIII) at Turfway on Saturday for Team Valor and Graham Motion. A year prior, Animal Kingdom had won the race for the same connections. Ironically, they both even broke from post four. We all know how the Spiral set up Animal Kingdom for the Kentucky Derby: he went on to win the Run for the Roses. At this stage, Went the Day Well is already a step ahead of Animal Kingdom: he has already been victorious over dirt. Also unlike last year’s Derby winner, Went the Day Well is likely to make one more prep before the Kentucky Derby. Barry Irwin is even more confident in him than he was in Animal Kingdom and rightfully so. Went the Day Well is obviously a very talented colt. He also has encouraging bloodlines. By Derby runner-up Proud Citizen and out of a Tiznow mare, Went the Day Well seems to have plenty of stamina in his pedigree.

Honorable Mentions:

Alpha: His connections finally decided on his final prep for the Derby: the Wood Memorial. This will be his stiffest competition of the year and his chance to prove himself. He must run well against the likes of Gemologists and the others likely for the Wood in order to be a top contender.

Cigar Street: Featured in Late Blooming Three-Year-Olds, Cigar Street is slated to make his graded stakes debut this weekend in the Louisiana Derby. It will be the toughest race of his life and he will certainly need to run well to acquire sufficient graded stakes earnings. He clearly has the pedigree to get there and appears to have the talent as well. 

Daddy Nose Best: A decent turf horse as a two-year-old, Daddy Nose Best began his sophomore campaign on the synthetic in the El Camino Real Derby (GIII), in which he outdueled Lucky Chappy for a nose victory. His second start as a three-year-old came in the Sunland Derby (GIII), which was his third try over dirt. Though it seemed as if Isn’t He Clever would pull of the win, Daddy Nose Best dug in for the three-quarters of a length victory, drawing away at the wire. This son of Scat Daddy clearly wants more ground and has plenty of talent. However, he will need to prove that he can compete against the very best contenders. Nonetheless, Daddy Nose Best possesses unquestionable talent.

Heavy Breathing: Despite an uninspiring third-place finish in the Spiral, I felt he needed to at least be mentioned. He is beautifully bred, being a direct descendant of La Troienne and a full brother to Frost Giant. The Spiral was the toughest field he’s faced yet and he has already been a mile and one-eighth twice, more times than any of these other horses. Perhaps, he can learn more and get one more start in before the Derby. However, if that is the case, Heavy Breathing will need to win or perform extremely well in that start.

Howe Great: Proven on both dirt and turf, Howe Great has proved to be brilliant. However, his pedigree only gives small hints at stamina. I believe his connections have a better shot with Went the Day Well.

Optimizer: His runner-up finish in the Rebel Stakes (GII) was his most impressive start in quite some time, but the fast fractions set him up for his performance. He has not fared well against the best in the past, but perhaps he has improved. Or, perhaps, the Rebel was a fluke. Only time will tell.

Paynter: He is only on this list for his talent, but I hope that his connections skip the Derby for him. He has the pedigree for it, but not the experience. I would not be surprised if he made a splash in the Illinois Derby (GII) on April 7, but with only a maiden sprint currently under his belt, Paynter is certainly not ready for the grueling Kentucky Derby.

Prospective: His good performances this year may just be due to an affinity towards the Tampa Bay Downs’ surface. He was a successful juvenile in Canada, but did not defeat a single horse in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He will need to prove himself.

Street Life: He has been incredibly impressive and certainly has a Derby pedigree, but Street Life has no graded stakes earnings. He will quickly need to acquire an abundant amount of them to be allowed in the Kentucky Derby starting gate, but if he does not, look for him in later races.

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