Derby Top Ten #9

Countdown to Derby Day: 38 Days

Here is my list of Kentucky Derby contenders as of March 27.

1. Union Rags: He has every reason to be in the top position, as he is clearly absolutely brilliant. He will need a spectacular performance in next weekend’s Florida Derby (GI), but if he’s anything like the Union Rags we’ve seen, he will have the perfect final prep for the Kentucky Derby. For more on why he is a top Derby contender, please click here.

2. Creative Cause: He clearly has plenty of stamina and raw talent. The way he was just beginning to accelerate at the end of the San Felipe Stakes (GII) was incredibly impressive, denoting that this colt is ready for more ground. He could not quite keep up with Union Rags and Hansen in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI), but he did gallop out ahead of them. For more on why he is a top Derby contender, please click here.

3. El Padrino: He is a tough, talented horse, but he will be on the top of his game in the Florida Derby against the likes of Union Rags. He is a versatile colt with plenty of potential, but will need to run well this weekend. For more on why he is a top Derby contender, please click here.

4. Gemologist: He is bred for ten furlongs, has obvious talent, and is improving. He will need to acquire more graded stakes earnings in order to make it the starting gate on the first Saturday in May, but if he does, it will be his third time to race over the Churchill Downs surface, which is more than any other Kentucky Derby hopeful. This gives him a huge advantage. For more on why he is a top Derby contender, please click here.

5. I’ll Have Another: It is discouraging that his connections are waiting so long for his final prep, as it would be benefical for him to get more than two preps into him. However, his win in the Robert B. Lewis (GIII) was very impressive, as he seemed to just be winning for fun. He will face a tough field in the Santa Anita Derby (GI) on April 7 and will need to run a tremendous race, but he certainly seems to have the talent to do so.

6. Bodemeister: He is also improving, which is extremely important. His race in the San Felipe was importantly, though he very well may have been growing fatigued near the end of the race. However, as mentioned, he is improving. His work on Friday was very impressive, as he had to maneuver nine other horses but still effortlessly outworked them all without any asking from Martin Garcia. He should not be underestimated.

7. Mark Valeski: Plain and simple, he will have to win or at least run a very remarkable race in the Louisiana Derby (GII) this weekend. He is clearly talented and full of heart, but he will need to continue to justify his position on this list. He could very well provide Rosie Napravnik with her second mount in the Kentucky Derby.

8. Dullahan: Obviously bred for the Derby, Dullahan has also proven to be talented. His final prep in the Blue Grass Stakes (GI) on April 14 will need to be an impressive effort, but he has already run well over the Keeneland surface, winning the Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity (GI) there.

9. Hansen: He is clearly a brilliant horse that loves to run and he has improved by learning 

to rate, but it is still uncertain whether he will get the Derby distance. His final prep, which will be in the Blue Grass, will be against a deep field, but he is already proven over the Polytrack. Also, Hansen has proved that racing over a Polytrack surface prior to making a start at Churchill Downs is a successful strategy for him. He won over Turfway’s Polytrack before triumphing in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill last year.

10. Went the Day Well: It was practically déjà vu when this colt won the Spiral Stakes (GIII) at Turfway on Saturday for Team Valor and Graham Motion. A year prior, Animal Kingdom had won the race for the same connections. Ironically, they both even broke from post four. We all know how the Spiral set up Animal Kingdom for the Kentucky Derby: he went on to win the Run for the Roses. At this stage, Went the Day Well is already a step ahead of Animal Kingdom: he has already been victorious over dirt. Also unlike last year’s Derby winner, Went the Day Well is likely to make one more prep before the Kentucky Derby. Barry Irwin is even more confident in him than he was in Animal Kingdom and rightfully so. Went the Day Well is obviously a very talented colt. He also has encouraging bloodlines. By Derby runner-up Proud Citizen and out of a Tiznow mare, Went the Day Well seems to have plenty of stamina in his pedigree.

Honorable Mentions:

Alpha: His connections finally decided on his final prep for the Derby: the Wood Memorial. This will be his stiffest competition of the year and his chance to prove himself. He must run well against the likes of Gemologists and the others likely for the Wood in order to be a top contender.

Cigar Street: Featured in Late Blooming Three-Year-Olds, Cigar Street is slated to make his graded stakes debut this weekend in the Louisiana Derby. It will be the toughest race of his life and he will certainly need to run well to acquire sufficient graded stakes earnings. He clearly has the pedigree to get there and appears to have the talent as well. 

Daddy Nose Best: A decent turf horse as a two-year-old, Daddy Nose Best began his sophomore campaign on the synthetic in the El Camino Real Derby (GIII), in which he outdueled Lucky Chappy for a nose victory. His second start as a three-year-old came in the Sunland Derby (GIII), which was his third try over dirt. Though it seemed as if Isn’t He Clever would pull of the win, Daddy Nose Best dug in for the three-quarters of a length victory, drawing away at the wire. This son of Scat Daddy clearly wants more ground and has plenty of talent. However, he will need to prove that he can compete against the very best contenders. Nonetheless, Daddy Nose Best possesses unquestionable talent.

Heavy Breathing: Despite an uninspiring third-place finish in the Spiral, I felt he needed to at least be mentioned. He is beautifully bred, being a direct descendant of La Troienne and a full brother to Frost Giant. The Spiral was the toughest field he’s faced yet and he has already been a mile and one-eighth twice, more times than any of these other horses. Perhaps, he can learn more and get one more start in before the Derby. However, if that is the case, Heavy Breathing will need to win or perform extremely well in that start.

Howe Great: Proven on both dirt and turf, Howe Great has proved to be brilliant. However, his pedigree only gives small hints at stamina. I believe his connections have a better shot with Went the Day Well.

Optimizer: His runner-up finish in the Rebel Stakes (GII) was his most impressive start in quite some time, but the fast fractions set him up for his performance. He has not fared well against the best in the past, but perhaps he has improved. Or, perhaps, the Rebel was a fluke. Only time will tell.

Paynter: He is only on this list for his talent, but I hope that his connections skip the Derby for him. He has the pedigree for it, but not the experience. I would not be surprised if he made a splash in the Illinois Derby (GII) on April 7, but with only a maiden sprint currently under his belt, Paynter is certainly not ready for the grueling Kentucky Derby.

Prospective: His good performances this year may just be due to an affinity towards the Tampa Bay Downs’ surface. He was a successful juvenile in Canada, but did not defeat a single horse in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He will need to prove himself.

Street Life: He has been incredibly impressive and certainly has a Derby pedigree, but Street Life has no graded stakes earnings. He will quickly need to acquire an abundant amount of them to be allowed in the Kentucky Derby starting gate, but if he does not, look for him in later races.

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Derby Top Ten #8

Countdown to Derby Day: 48 Days

This is my top ten list of Kentucky Derby contenders as of March 18.

1. Union Rags: This colt is full of pure talent and clearly loves to run. He was extremely professional in his Fountain of Youth Stakes (GII) victory, effortlessly galloping to victory. He could face a deep field in the Florida Derby (GI) on March 31, but if he’s as talented as he seems to be, we could see something spectacular from him yet again. For more on why he is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.

2. Creative Cause: He is certainly bred to run all day and was brilliant in his triumph in the San Felipe Stakes (GII), despite running greenly in the stretch, which could be a result of being struck by the whip. The way he accelerated just as he hit the wire was incredibly impressive, especially considering how far ahead of the others he galloped out. It also must be noted that he galloped out in front of every horse after the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI). Once Creative Cause has his mind on running, it is hard to defeat him. He is expected to run next in the Santa Anita Derby (GI) on April 7. For more on why he is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.

3. El Padrino: He is a tough, gritty colt with bloodlines and conformation that should allow him to handle long distances. He has run extremely well both over fast and sloppy tracks and has displayed professionalism in each of his starts. He could start next in the Florida Derby (GI) on March 31 or the Louisiana Derby (GII) on April 1. For more on why he is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.

4. Gemologist: He made the top ten of the first two editions of this list, but became an honorable mention the longer his sophomore debut was put off. He needed to get a race in which he displayed that he had matured and grown faster over the winter. He ran exactly that race on Friday at Gulfstream, defeating the grade one-winning Currency Swap in a one-mile open allowance that became practically his only choice when travel complications kept him from shipping to Oaklawn for the Rebel Stakes (GII). He was hardly asked at all by Javier Castellano en route to a 7-length victory. In fact, he was in hand for the majority of the homestretch. He completed the final quarter of a mile in 24.69 seconds despite only slight urging. He completed the eight-furlong distance in 1:35.95, a much faster one-mile clocking than his one-mile splits in his allowance optional claiming (2.57 seconds quicker) and Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (GII) (1.79 seconds quicker) victories as a juvenile. It was the perfect sophomore debut. He may have led the entire way in the allowance on Friday, but he has proven in the past that he can rate off the pace. By Tiznow and out of a Mr. Prospector mare, Gemologist surely should be able to handle the Triple Crown distances. In addition, he already has two very important wins over the Churchill Downs surface. His final prep is undecided, but is likely to come in April.

5. I’ll Have Another: Though I do not particularly care for his connection’s decision to not give him a race between his Robert B. Lewis Stakes (GII) win and the Santa Anita Derby (GI), I believe this colt is underrated. He has good form, a pedigree that hints at a future in route races, and he clearly enjoys to race. He will need to turn in a terrific performance in the Santa Anita Derby on April 7, but I believe he is capable of doing so.

6. Bodemeister: He did appear to be slightly fatigued after his game effort in the San Felipe, but he ran extremely well in that race and it was his first try around two turns. He will grow more robust under the care of Bob Baffert, especially considering his connections think highly of him after his dazzling maiden victory and tremendous second-place effort in the San Felipe. He may make his final prep for the Kentucky Derby in the Santa Anita Derby on April 7.

7. Mark Valeski: He was extremely tough in his runner-up finish behind El Padrino in the Risen Star Stakes (GII), giving the colt all he had before falling a nose short. His pedigree suggests that he will be able to get the Derby distance of ten furlongs, as he is by a Derby runner-up and has the same broodmare sire, Fortunate Prospect (RIP), as this year’s Santa Anita Handicap (GI) winner, Ron the Greek. He will likely race next in the Louisiana Derby (GII) on April 1.

8. Dullahan: If any horse has the pedigree to be able to be competitive at the Derby distance, it’s Dullahan, as he is a half-brother to the 2009 Kentucky Derby winner, Mine That Bird. He has proven that he is talented, as he won the Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity (GI) at Keeneland as a two-year-old before closing well to finish fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile behind Hansen, Union Rags, and Creative Cause. His 2012 debut in the Palm Beach Stakes (GIII) on March 11 was very respectable, as he closed to finish second after not having run in four months. It is anticipated that Dullahan will make his final prep for the Kentucky Derby in the Blue Grass Stakes (GI) over the same racetrack at which he ran his best race.

9. Hansen: We all know he is brilliant, but there is plenty of room for doubt when it comes to the distance question. He can get a mile and one-sixteenth and certainly has the potential to get nine furlongs, but I am unconvinced that he can be victorious at ten furlongs. He has improved, proving that he can rate, but that does not confirm that he will be triumphant at long distances. He is expected to make his final start before the Kentucky Derby in the Wood Memorial Stakes (GI) on April 7.

10. Secret Circle: Despite the fact that he has a pedigree full of stamina, it seems as if Secret Circle has distance limitations. However, his victories in the Southwest Stakes (GIII) and the Rebel Stakes (GII) were certainly steps in the right direction. His Rebel win on Saturday was very impressive, as, instead of running on or just off a quick pace, he found a position in fourth. Yet another factor of his triumph in the Rebel that was remarkable was that the son of Eddington dug in to get past Scatman in late stretch though it has been revealed that the colt is not the best about going past horses in the stretch.  Optimizer was gaining ground on him, but Secret Circle found enough to hold him off. His final time for the mile and one-sixteenth race was 1.87 seconds (approximately 9 ½ lengths) slower than Union Rags’ time in the Fountain of Youth and .71 seconds (about 3 ½ lengths) slower than Hansen’s time in the Gotham. However, though Secret Circle’s final sixteenth of a mile was .48 seconds slower than Union Rags’, it was only .04 seconds slower than Hansen’s. Secret Circle is a horse that is bred for long distances but will likely be more successful at shorter ones. He may make his next start in the nine-furlong Arkansas Derby (GI) on April 14, which should tell us more about him. For more on why he has the potential to become a top Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.

Honorable Mentions:

Alpha: He is definitely talented and well-bred, but has not been beating up on much. His connections have been quite indecisive on his final start before the Kentucky Derby, which could come in the Florida Derby on March 31, the Louisiana Derby on April 1, the Louisiana Derby on April 1 or the Arkansas Derby on April 14. They do not want to run him against horses they view as extremely tough, such as Union Rags and Hansen, but the colt needs to prove himself and needs to get a race in.

Castaway: He easily won the first division of the Southwest Stakes (GIII), but it was slower than Secret Circle’s victory in the second and final division. He was also recently outworked by Secret Circle, which may show that he is simply not fast enough. However, his pedigree (sired by Street Sense and out of a Storm Cat mare) shows that he very well may be much more appreciative of longer distances.

Heavy Breathing: Heavy Breathing is royally bred, being by Giant’s Causeway and out of a direct descendant of La Troienne that has already produced a grade one winner. He has been impressive in his two starts, winning them both handily. However, he will need to prove that his royal bloodlines and remarkable performances are legitimate. He will get his chance to do so in the Spiral Stakes (GIII) on March 24, which Animal Kingdom used as a launch pad prior to his Run for the Roses victory.

Howe Great: He has been brilliant this year and is proven on dirt, but though the sire of his sire is the Kentucky Derby and Preakness-winning Sunday Silence, his pedigree does not offer much encouragement as far as Triple Crown distances are concerned. However, he has the right connections to get him there: Graham Motion and Team Valor.

Optimizer: After a string of very disappointing finishes, which included an eighth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and a ninth-place finish in the Risen Star Stakes (GII), Optimizer ran an impressive second in the Rebel, closing quickly to finish second behind Secret Circle. The fractions may have set him up for this, but the D. Wayne Lukas trainee may have turned a new page.

Paynter: He is certainly talented, but I no longer feel as if he has a position in the top ten. Yes, he is making his next start in the Illinois Derby (GII), but he is going from five and one-half furlongs to nine furlongs, which is a huge jump. In addition, contending in the Kentucky Derby off of just two starts is not an advantage by any means. Though I would love to see him in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May, I believe it would be rushing things. Perhaps his connections should await the Preakness Stakes (GI), or at least make the goal the Breeders’ Cup Classic (GI). After all, he is by Awesome Again and out of a full sister to Tiznow.

Prospective: He was a good juvenile in Canada, but finished last in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile against many of these horses. He has flourished at Tampa Bay Downs this year, winning two of three starts, including the Tampa Bay Derby (GII).  Yet I am not extremely confident in how he would compete against many of the top Derby contenders.

Street Life: He has appeared on the honorable mentions list here several times (as well as in my article, Late Blooming Three-Year-Olds), as he impressed me in his breathtaking maiden victory, in which he closed in spectacular fashion to win. He won the Broad Brush Stakes on Saturday in similar fashion, but the race was not graded. By the Derby-winning Street Sense and out of a mare that is by the 1996 Derby winner, Grindstone, he is undoubtedly bred for the Derby. However, he would have to acquire a large amount of graded stakes earnings in his next start, which would need to come in time for the Derby. Perhaps he will not make it to Kentucky Derby, but look for him later on down the road.

Read more about many of the honorable mentions in my article, Late Blooming Three-Year-Olds.

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Derby Top Ten #7

We are less than sixty days out from the most anticipated race of the year, the Kentucky Derby (GI). The prep races have been heating up, becoming crucial for Derby contenders. This crop of three-year-olds looks to have plenty of depth to it and there already seem to be plenty of human interest stories involved. The Kentucky Derby is, like usual, shaping up to be a tremendous race.

This is the list of my top ten 2012 Kentucky Derby contenders as of March 12. This one required some very tough decisions and I feel as if the last three could be in any order or replaced by a number of the honorable mentions. The top horse has not changed since the first top ten list, however.

1. Union Rags: Though his pedigree is not glowing with stamina, it does give hints that he will be able to get the Derby distance. In addition, the way this colt runs hints that he wants more ground. He has an extremely powerful, keen way of going. His race in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (GII) was very professional and he seems to have matured. He is being pointed toward the Florida Derby (GI) at Gulfstream Park on March 31. For more on why he is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.

2. Creative Cause: Though he did not run very straight in the stretch of the San Felipe Stakes (GII) on March 10, the way he accelerated was breathtaking. He faced a tough horse in Bodemeister, but once their noses became even, the son of Giant’s Causeway effortlessly dug in to draw away to a three-quarters of a length victory before galloping out very impressively. In fact, it seemed as if he was just getting started when he crossed the finish line. The final time for a mile and one-sixteenth was an impressive 1:41.84. Not only did his performance in the San Felipe show that he wants to run all day, but so does his pedigree. A successful router himself, Giant’s Causeway has sired many prosperous distance horses, such as Giant Oak, Heatseeker, and Swift Temper. For more on why he is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.

3. El Padrino: He has a great pedigree for the Derby, as well as an advantageous off-the-pace running style. He clearly has plenty of heart and determination, as he displayed in winning the Risen Star Stakes (GII). He could run next in either the Florida Derby (GI) on March 31 or the Louisiana Derby (GII) on April 1. For more on why he is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.

4. I’ll Have Another: His Robert B. Lewis (GII) win was very impressive, as was the work he had between races on March 3. His pedigree suggests that he should appreciate longer distances, as he is by the Travers Stakes (GI)-winning Flower Alley and out of an Arch mare. He is expected to run next in the Santa Anita Derby (GI) on April 7.

5. Bodemeister: He ran an extremely game second to Creative Cause in the San Felipe, giving the gray colt all he had in the stretch before finishing behind him by three-quarters of a length. He showed in that race that he does not need the lead and though he was a bit rank the first quarter of a mile, he eventually seemed to relax. He drifted out in late stretch, which may hint that he was getting tired, but it was only his third start and the toughest of his career at that. His pedigree is full of stamina and he is learning more with every start. I have been very high on him since his maiden win and am not at all surprised with how well he ran on Saturday.

6. Mark Valeski: In his runner-up finish behind El Padrino in the Risen Star Stakes (GII), Mark Valeski proved that he has grit. In addition, his pedigree is full of stamina, as he is by the runner-up in the 2002 Kentucky Derby, Proud Citizen, and out of a Fortunate Prospect mare. As mentioned in the previous Derby Top Ten, Fortunate Prospect is also the grandsire of this year’s Santa Anita Handicap (GI) winner, Ron the Greek. He may be seen next in the Louisiana Derby (GII) on April 1.

7. Dullahan: He’s already proven that he can compete against the best, as he won the Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity (GI) last October before finishing fourth behind Hansen, Union Rags, and Creative Cause in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI). After a slight illness early in 2012, he kicked off his sophomore campaign with a good debut in the Palm Beach Stakes (GIII) on the turf, closing well to finish second behind Howe Great by a length. The winner was sharper than Dullahan, having already started this year, while Dullahan needed to get a race in. It is obvious that he is bred for the Derby, as he is out of Mining My Own, the dam of the 2009 Kentucky Derby (GI) winner, Mine That Bird. Trainer Dale Romans – who finished fourth in the Derby last year with Shackleford and third in 2010 with Paddy O’Prado – is pointing him toward the Blue Grass Stakes (GI) at Keeneland Racecourse on April 14.

8. Heavy Breathing: He is making his first appearance on this list, simply because I just discovered him. His pedigree is one of the most remarkable I've ever seen and the digger I deep while studying his bloodlines, the more impressed I am. His last two starts have come at Gulfstream Park - one in a seven and one-half furlong maiden special weight and one in nine-furlong allowance - and have been extremely impressive. His win in the mile and one-eighth allowance showed that he is ready for more ground and his pedigree hints that more distance will not be a problem. He will likely start next in the Spiral Stakes (GIII) on March 24 at Turfway Park, the same race that produced last year's Derby winner. Expect him to be spotlighted soon.

9. Paynter: He’s very highly ranked for a horse who has only raced once and has no graded stakes earnings, but I feel as if he is a future star. The way he won his debut was tremendously impressive and despite his forelock blowing into his ear and causing him to shake his head, he was very professional. By the Breeders’ Cup Classic (GI)-winning Awesome Again – who has produced several ten-furlong winners, including Awesome Gem, Game on Dude, Ghostzapper, and Ginger Punch – and out of a full-sister to the two-time Breeders’ Cup Classic (GI)-winning Tiznow, Paytner is by all means bred for distance and top-class races. He will need some thorough training to get him ready for longer distances and a race in which he can garner plentiful graded stakes earnings. I would love to see him make the Kentucky Derby, so hopefully he will make his graded stakes debut soon.

10. Hansen: He is clearly talented and has heart, but his ability to get ten furlongs is hazy. His sire, Tapit, has only sired one ten-furlong winner and his dam, Stormy Sunday, was never victorious at a distance longer than six furlongs. In fact, Hansen’s second dam never produced a foal that won farther than one mile. He’s an impressive horse and has matured, but there’s more to a racehorse than its flashiness. He is likely to make his final prep in the Wood Memorial Stakes (GI) on April 7.

Honorable Mentions:

Alpha: Rather than staying in New York, Alpha is headed for the Florida Derby (GI) for his final Derby prep race. This is likely a good move and not just because many view the Wood Memorial as a cursed race, but because he will face stiffer competition for his last start before the toughest race of his career. He has not been beating much in New York, but if he performs well against the tough horses lined up for the Florida Derby, he will solidify himself as a top Derby contender. Nonetheless, I am doubtful of how he will contend against the likes of Union Rags and others.

Castaway: The way he runs and his pedigree hint that he will enjoy longer distances. He was slower than Secret Circle in the Southwest Stakes (GIII) and when they worked together on Saturday, Secret Circle easily outworked him and galloped out far ahead of him. He will likely be seen next in the Sunland Derby (GIII) on March 25.

Gemologist: Rather than making his first three-year-old start in the Rebel, Gemologist will race for the first time in 2012 on March 16 in a one-mile allowance at Gulfstream. This decision was made due to problems with travel plans, but it is discouraging that Gemologist will only get an eight-furlong race into him rather than the extra sixteenth of a mile he would race over in the Rebel. He will need to run a spectacular race in Friday’s allowance.

Howe Great: He is considered by many to solely be a turf horse, but so was Animal Kingdom before he won the Kentucky Derby last year. Another similarity between the two is that they have the same connections: Team Valor International, Graham Motion, and John Velazquez. However, unlike Animal Kingdom, Howe Great has already started over the dirt. In fact, the first two races of his career came over conventional dirt: a second-place finish in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Parx Racing and a victory in a six and one-half furlong maiden special weight over the same track. He shipped to Gulfstream Park for the winter, reeling off victories in a mile and one-sixteenth turf allowance, the Kitten’s Joy Stakes, and the Palm Beach Stakes (GIII). In the latter race, he proved that he could rate rather than set the pace like he had in his past two starts. By the group one-winning son of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes-winning Sunday Silence in Hat Trick – who was a champion miler in Japan – and out of a Western Winter – who never won beyond seven furlongs – mare, there does not seem to be much stamina in his pedigree. He has been successful at a mile and one-sixteenth and will add another sixteenth in the Blue Grass Stakes (GI). However, the Blue Grass is a full furlong shorter than the Kentucky Derby. Howe Great is talented, but I am not overly confident in his ability to go much longer.

Prospective: After winning the Grey Stakes (GIII) at Woodbine at two, he faced top two-year-olds – many of which are now on this list – in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI). He was never a threat in the prestigious race and finished last. He has great form at Tampa Bay Downs, with a win in the Pasco Stakes, a runner-up finish in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (GIII), and a win in the Tampa Bay Derby (GII), but I am unsure of how he will fare against the top horses of the same age at Churchill Downs. Last time he faced them, it did not turn out well.

Secret Circle: He’s talented and fast, but, even though his pedigree is full of stamina, he doesn’t seem to want much more ground. On Saturday, he had a beautiful six-furlong work in company with Castaway, easily drawing away from the other colt and galloping out far ahead of him. This is very encouraging, as it could hint that he is growing more accustomed to longer distances. He could be seen next in the Rebel Stakes (GII) on March 17.

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Derby Top Ten #6

It’s the race that defines horse racing, the race that fans of the sport await for months, the race that is history in the making, and the race that can evoke emotions unlike any other race. It’s the Kentucky Derby (GI).

This is the list of my top ten 2012 Kentucky Derby contenders as of March 4.

1. Union Rags: He is by all means deserving of this position. He could not have been any more impressive in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (GII) on February 26 and is absolutely classy. Though his pedigree is not radiating with stamina, Union Rags has shown that he is a sophisticated enough individual to stretch out. This colt clearly loves to run and is absolutely brilliant at doing so. He is being pointed towards the Florida Derby (GI) on March 31. For more on why he is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.

2. El Padrino: I love this colt’s pedigree, which is full of stamina and class. He has been quite impressive on the track, having found the winner’s circle in three of five starts. He showed his heart and resilience in the Risen Star Stakes (GII) on February 25, prevailing by a nose. He has not been as dominant as Union Rags, but he gets the job done and has every right to be considered a top Derby horse. He could run next in the Florida Derby (GI) on March 31 or the Louisiana Derby (GII) on April 1. For more on why he is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.

3. Creative Cause: He tries hard every time and has enough stamina in his pedigree to suggest that Triple Crown distances will not be a problem. He was not extremely impressive in his sophomore debut, but he clearly wanted more ground than seven furlongs. More than likely, he will get back into the swing of things before the first Saturday in May rolls around. He definitely needs to. He could be seen next in the San Felipe Stakes (GII) on March 10. For more on why he is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.

4. Fed Biz: He has been extremely impressive in his last two starts and has nearly everything you could want in a Derby hopeful: talent, beautiful conformation, an advantageous stalking running style, and a pedigree full of stamina. Yet, he lacks graded stakes earnings. He will have his first chance to acquire them in the San Felipe Stakes (GII) on March 10.

5. I’ll Have Another: I am not overly fond of his connections decision to not run the colt until the Santa Anita Derby (GI) on April 7, but his work between races on the Big Cap undercard was very impressive. I find it very beneficial when a horse works between races rather than in the morning, as it gives the work a “race feel” by allowing the horse to work over a track prepared for racing while exercising in front of a crowd. This is especially advantageous for I’ll Have Another, considering the colt will not start again until April 7. He and Fed Biz switched places, due to the fact that Fed Biz galloped out more impressively than I’ll Have Another in their most recent races and that Bob Baffert’s charge is prepping more rigorously. However, they could very easily change positions yet again.

6. Out of Bounds: He needs to grow into himself and mature, but he has plenty of potential. He is absolutely royally bred, being out of a Breeders’ Cup Distaff (GI) winner and by the grade one-winning Discreet Cat. Though he has beautiful bloodlines, they do contain doubt as far as longer distances are concerned. Nonetheless, he is a talented colt. He will also likely be seen next in the San Felipe Stakes (GII) on March 10.

7. American Act: This colt has one of the best Derby pedigrees of any horse on this list and has already proven that he has a great amount of heart. He may only be the winner of one race, but he was extremely impressive in his second-place finish in the San Vicente Stakes (GII).

8. Mark Valeski: He was extremely tough in his runner-up finish behind El Padrino in the Risen Star Stakes (GII), giving the eventual winner everything he had. He also galloped out nearly evenly with the victor, proving that he had plenty left. He has beautiful breeding for the Derby, as he is by a Kentucky Derby runner-up in Proud Citizen and out of a multiple stakes-winning mare over nine furlongs. It is also favorable that his grandsire is Fortunate Prospect, who is also the grandsire of this year's Santa Anita Handicap (GI) winner, Ron the Greek.

9. Bodemeister: His pedigree is glowing with stamina and in his maiden win, he displayed his brilliance by crossing the wire 9 ¼ lengths ahead. American Act’s second-place finish in the San Vicente Stakes (GII) flattered him, making it seem as if Bodemeister will be competitive against graded stakes company. He will need to be in order for him to obtain the necessary graded stakes earnings. His work this morning with Secret Circle was extremely impressive, as he was being held in hand while Secret Circle received more asking and yet still finished ahead of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint and Southwest Stakes (GIII) winner.

10. Paynter: By the Breeders’ Cup Classic (GI)-winning Awesome Again and out of a full sister to the two-time Breeders’ Cup Classic-winning Tiznow, Paynter is indoubtedly bred for ten furlongs. He is also a half-brother to the winner of the 2008 Cinema Handicap (GIII, 9F), Tiz West. Despite the fact that he is bred for stamina, he won his debut at five and one-half furlongs, proving his professionalism. He has a lot of learning to do and history is against him, but I find this colt extremely intriguing and full of potential. According to the Zayat Stables website, he is expected to make his next start in a graded stakes race.

Honorable Mentions:

Alpha: He has not been beating much in New York, though the colt who finished third to him in the Withers Stakes (GIII) – Tiger Walk – came back to finish a decent fourth in the Gotham Stakes (GIII). Like I’ll Have Another, he will need to train extremely well, as he may not race again until April 7, though he may run in the Florida Derby (GI) on March 31.

Castaway: He is a very talented colt and looked like he could keep going in his win in the first division of the Southwest Stakes (GIII). By the 2007 Kentucky Derby winner in Street Sense and out of a Storm Cat mare, Castaway is sure to handle the Derby distance.

Gemologist: As an undefeated graded stakes winner, he does not lack talent. However, his times were not spectacular and he did not begin working until February. His most recent move came on March 3, when he breezed five furlongs in 1:00.22 at Palm Meadows Training Center. It was his sharpest work yet, but he needs a good race in him soon. He is likely to run next in either the Tampa Bay Derby (GII) on March 10 or the Rebel Stakes (GII) on March 17.

Hansen: Many may feel that I have him ranked too low, but he does not seem to have much potential to get ten furlongs. Though he is a great grandson of both A.P. Indy, Unbridled, and Storm Cat, his immediate family does not give him much stamina support. His sire, Tapit, has not had much success with siring routers. In fact, he is only sired one grade one winner at ten furlongs, Careless Jewel. Hansen’s dam, Stormy Sunday, never won beyond six furlongs and her dam, Thinkin’strait, never produced a foal capable of winning a race longer than one mile. Nonetheless, Hansen’s victory in the Gotham Stakes (GIII) was nearly exactly what we needed to see from him. Without blinkers, he settled off the pace before drawing clear in the stretch to win by three lengths. He will have to use all the heart he has to continue to stretch out in distance, but he certainly has plenty of heart.

Secret Circle: Despite his pedigree, Secret Circle has not displayed much affinity for a lengthening of distance. It was a step in the right direction when he prevailed in the second division of the eight-furlong Southwest Stakes (GIII), but he drifted out yet again, which may hint that he was growing tired.

Street Life: He is very talented, but I don’t know if he will make it to the Derby, as he is entered to run in an allowance optional claiming at Aqueduct on March 7. He must perform well there and then acquire an abundant amount of graded stakes earnings in his next start in order to even be in consideration for the Kentucky Derby. If this schedule does not pan out, perhaps he could be a threat in one or two of the latter legs of the Triple Crown.

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Derby Top Ten #5

Less than two months from now, a three-year-old will stand before the Twin Spires with red roses draped over its withers. Its connections will joyously smile for the many cameras, spectators at the renowned Churchill Downs will cheer the horse on as it returns to the barn, and racing fans across the world will revere the horse. Why? Because the horse will have just won the most prestigious race in the world: the Kentucky Derby (GI).

Along the Derby trail, things can change drastically in the blink of an eye. There have certainly been changes since last week’s top ten, but the list topper remains the same.

This is the list of my top ten 2012 Kentucky Derby contenders as of February 27.

1. Union Rags: He solidified his position as the top horse on this list in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (GII) yesterday, only giving me more reason to keep him at the pinnacle. He settled off the pace beautifully before effortlessly drawing away to win by four lengths in a final time of 1:42.68 for a mile and one-sixteenth, finishing the final sixteenth in 6.40 despite being geared down. He displayed his breathtaking, ground-covering stride as new rider Julien Leparoux held him in hand in the final yards. This colt is absolutely brilliant, classy, and has the potential to be great. He is more deserving than any other horse to be number one here. His final prep for the Kentucky Derby will likely be made in the Florida Derby (GI) on March 31. For more on why he is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please read my Derby Hopeful article on him here.

2. El Padrino: Just as I expected he would, El Padrino proved those who believed he could only win over an off track wrong. In his Risen Star Stakes (GII) victory over a fast track, the beautifully-bred colt displayed his grit, determination, and heart by putting on a true horse race. He did not dominantly win his race like Union Rags, but he showed the very important characteristic of heart when dueling with Mark Valeski to win by a nose. He actually finished more quickly than Union Rags, completing the final sixteenth in 6.08 seconds. However, he exerted more energy and was asked for much more than Union Rags. Nonetheless, this is a very talented, hard-trying colt with a pedigree that strongly supports him to go the Derby distance. For more on why he is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please read my Derby Hopeful article on him here.

3. Creative Cause: He came home very quickly in the San Vicente Stakes (GII) and was just getting started at the end of the seven-furlong race. His pedigree and past performances show that he will enjoy a lengthening of distance, which is one of the most important characteristics in a Derby contender. He could start next in the March 10 San Felipe Stakes (GII) at Santa Anita or in the Rebel Stakes (GII) at Oaklawn Park on March 17. For more on why he is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please read my Derby Hopeful article on him here.

4. I’ll Have Another: He definitely has plenty of doubters out there, which only goes to show how much he needs to prove himself. His win in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (GII) on February 4 was impressive, but he will need to verify that it was not a fluke. His pedigree (by Flower Alley and out of an Arch mare) suggests that distance will not be a problem and other than his race in the Three Chimneys Hopeful Stakes (GI) – which can likely be thrown out – I’ll Have Another has very good form. We’ll learn more about him in the Santa Anita Derby on April 7.

5. Fed Biz: He has nearly everything that a top Derby contender needs: a distance-oriented pedigree, a beneficial stalking running style, and of course, undeniable ability. However, the main thing he lacks is graded stakes earnings. He will need to acquire those soon in order to secure both his validity as a talented racehorse and a position in the starting gate on the first Saturday of May. He will have his first chance to do so in the San Felipe on March 10.

6. Out of Bounds: He has learning to do, but he has a great foundation to build on. Out of a female family number twelve mare that won the renowned Breeders’ Cup Distaff (GI), Out of Bounds certainly has a royal family. He is also very talented, but will need to keep up his good form in the San Felipe.

7. American Act: He’s only won once, but the grit and determination he displayed in the San Vicente Stakes (GII) was very impressive. Though he finished second in that race, he was passed before coming back in late stretch, only to just miss. Also to his advantage is that he is Derby-bred through and through.

8. Mark Valeski: He showed much perseverance when battling El Padrino in the stretch of the Risen Star, only to lose by a nose. Before his impressive graded stakes debut, he had won two straight races: a maiden special weight at Delaware Park in a romp and an allowance optional claiming with determination. He has shown plenty of fight, which is certainly very important.

9. Bodemeister: Straight from the blazing Bob Baffert barn, Bodemeister is brilliant and beautifully bred. Though he has only started twice – in maiden special weight races – and only has one win to his credit, he has already proven himself. The colt that defeated him in his debut was none other than American Act and in his second start, he flew to a 9 ¼-length victory. He needs to acquire graded stakes earnings, but in the words of Bob Baffert, “We have plans.”

10. Algorithms: He takes a significant drop from third to tenth, but I am very wary of his splint injuries. It is true that popped splints typically do not take very long to heal and are usually just an interruption in training, but on the Derby trail, interruptions in training can be detrimental. This is especially true for this colt, who will need plenty of racing experience before the Derby. Though bred for distance, he has never been around two turns and he will need to get that experience before the Run for the Roses. In addition, the Kentucky Derby has proven to be very taxing on a horse and will take an extremely tough horse to win. An injury – even one as minor as a popped splint – is not a good sign.

Honorable Mentions:

Alpha: He has been visually impressive at Aqueduct this year, but his times have not been spectacular and neither have most of the horses he has defeated. He has certainly improved since being medicated with Lasix and his pedigree definitely suggests that he can get the Derby distance. He will need to train very well and run a great race in the Wood Memorial Stakes (GI) on April 7.

Castaway: He has great bloodlines for the Derby and is coming off an excellent win in the first division of the Southwest Stakes (GIII). He did break his maiden until his sixth start, but since then has been on a roll. He is yet another horse out of the en fuego Bob Baffert barn.

Gemologist: He is by all means full of talent, but he will need to improve his times. He is also a bit behind the others, having only worked four times this year. He could be seen next in the Rebel Stakes (GII) or Tampa Bay Derby (GII).

Hansen: We all know he is talented and has heart, but he will have to prove that he can be just as brilliant as a three-year-old as he was as a two-year-old. He will also need to show that he can stretch out in distance. He is expected to race next in the Gotham Stakes (GIII) at Aqueduct on March 3.

Paynter: Though other Bob Baffert trainees are ranked more highly than him, I am more impressed by him than any of the others. The only thing that keeps him from being in the top ten is the fact that he did not debut until February 18. Though he may have discouraged some or thrown people off by shaking his head in the stretch, he only did so as a result of his forelock becoming unbraided and flying into his ear. Actually, Paynter performed extremely professionally and despite being indisputably bred for distance, he dominantly won a five and one-half-furlong maiden special weight. Hopefully, he will obtain enough graded earnings to be able to enter the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby. Whether he makes it to the Derby or not, I believe he is a future star.

Secret Circle: Though he is bred for distance, he has not shown much liking for stretching out. His win in the second division of the one-mile Southwest Stakes (GIII) was a step in the right direction, though he was drifting out in late stretch like he did in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint, in which Secret Circle helped set blazing fractions over a tiring track. He may not get the Derby distance, but he is certainly a brilliant colt with a bright future ahead of him.

Street Life: His maiden win was impressive, but he has not worked since. In order to make the Derby, he will need to rapidly garner graded stakes earnings. His pedigree suggests that distance and class will not be an issue.

*Discreet Dancer, who was ranked second, will likely no longer appear on this list. I am still very high on him and believe he is an extremely talented colt, but I believe his biggest success will come in one-turn races or two-turn miles. In my opinion, his connections should not point him toward the Triple Crown, but rather set their sights on one-turn races.

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