Derby Top Ten #6

It’s the race that defines horse racing, the race that fans of the sport await for months, the race that is history in the making, and the race that can evoke emotions unlike any other race. It’s the Kentucky Derby (GI).

This is the list of my top ten 2012 Kentucky Derby contenders as of March 4.

1. Union Rags: He is by all means deserving of this position. He could not have been any more impressive in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (GII) on February 26 and is absolutely classy. Though his pedigree is not radiating with stamina, Union Rags has shown that he is a sophisticated enough individual to stretch out. This colt clearly loves to run and is absolutely brilliant at doing so. He is being pointed towards the Florida Derby (GI) on March 31. For more on why he is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.

2. El Padrino: I love this colt’s pedigree, which is full of stamina and class. He has been quite impressive on the track, having found the winner’s circle in three of five starts. He showed his heart and resilience in the Risen Star Stakes (GII) on February 25, prevailing by a nose. He has not been as dominant as Union Rags, but he gets the job done and has every right to be considered a top Derby horse. He could run next in the Florida Derby (GI) on March 31 or the Louisiana Derby (GII) on April 1. For more on why he is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.

3. Creative Cause: He tries hard every time and has enough stamina in his pedigree to suggest that Triple Crown distances will not be a problem. He was not extremely impressive in his sophomore debut, but he clearly wanted more ground than seven furlongs. More than likely, he will get back into the swing of things before the first Saturday in May rolls around. He definitely needs to. He could be seen next in the San Felipe Stakes (GII) on March 10. For more on why he is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please click here.

4. Fed Biz: He has been extremely impressive in his last two starts and has nearly everything you could want in a Derby hopeful: talent, beautiful conformation, an advantageous stalking running style, and a pedigree full of stamina. Yet, he lacks graded stakes earnings. He will have his first chance to acquire them in the San Felipe Stakes (GII) on March 10.

5. I’ll Have Another: I am not overly fond of his connections decision to not run the colt until the Santa Anita Derby (GI) on April 7, but his work between races on the Big Cap undercard was very impressive. I find it very beneficial when a horse works between races rather than in the morning, as it gives the work a “race feel” by allowing the horse to work over a track prepared for racing while exercising in front of a crowd. This is especially advantageous for I’ll Have Another, considering the colt will not start again until April 7. He and Fed Biz switched places, due to the fact that Fed Biz galloped out more impressively than I’ll Have Another in their most recent races and that Bob Baffert’s charge is prepping more rigorously. However, they could very easily change positions yet again.

6. Out of Bounds: He needs to grow into himself and mature, but he has plenty of potential. He is absolutely royally bred, being out of a Breeders’ Cup Distaff (GI) winner and by the grade one-winning Discreet Cat. Though he has beautiful bloodlines, they do contain doubt as far as longer distances are concerned. Nonetheless, he is a talented colt. He will also likely be seen next in the San Felipe Stakes (GII) on March 10.

7. American Act: This colt has one of the best Derby pedigrees of any horse on this list and has already proven that he has a great amount of heart. He may only be the winner of one race, but he was extremely impressive in his second-place finish in the San Vicente Stakes (GII).

8. Mark Valeski: He was extremely tough in his runner-up finish behind El Padrino in the Risen Star Stakes (GII), giving the eventual winner everything he had. He also galloped out nearly evenly with the victor, proving that he had plenty left. He has beautiful breeding for the Derby, as he is by a Kentucky Derby runner-up in Proud Citizen and out of a multiple stakes-winning mare over nine furlongs. It is also favorable that his grandsire is Fortunate Prospect, who is also the grandsire of this year's Santa Anita Handicap (GI) winner, Ron the Greek.

9. Bodemeister: His pedigree is glowing with stamina and in his maiden win, he displayed his brilliance by crossing the wire 9 ¼ lengths ahead. American Act’s second-place finish in the San Vicente Stakes (GII) flattered him, making it seem as if Bodemeister will be competitive against graded stakes company. He will need to be in order for him to obtain the necessary graded stakes earnings. His work this morning with Secret Circle was extremely impressive, as he was being held in hand while Secret Circle received more asking and yet still finished ahead of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint and Southwest Stakes (GIII) winner.

10. Paynter: By the Breeders’ Cup Classic (GI)-winning Awesome Again and out of a full sister to the two-time Breeders’ Cup Classic-winning Tiznow, Paynter is indoubtedly bred for ten furlongs. He is also a half-brother to the winner of the 2008 Cinema Handicap (GIII, 9F), Tiz West. Despite the fact that he is bred for stamina, he won his debut at five and one-half furlongs, proving his professionalism. He has a lot of learning to do and history is against him, but I find this colt extremely intriguing and full of potential. According to the Zayat Stables website, he is expected to make his next start in a graded stakes race.

Honorable Mentions:

Alpha: He has not been beating much in New York, though the colt who finished third to him in the Withers Stakes (GIII) – Tiger Walk – came back to finish a decent fourth in the Gotham Stakes (GIII). Like I’ll Have Another, he will need to train extremely well, as he may not race again until April 7, though he may run in the Florida Derby (GI) on March 31.

Castaway: He is a very talented colt and looked like he could keep going in his win in the first division of the Southwest Stakes (GIII). By the 2007 Kentucky Derby winner in Street Sense and out of a Storm Cat mare, Castaway is sure to handle the Derby distance.

Gemologist: As an undefeated graded stakes winner, he does not lack talent. However, his times were not spectacular and he did not begin working until February. His most recent move came on March 3, when he breezed five furlongs in 1:00.22 at Palm Meadows Training Center. It was his sharpest work yet, but he needs a good race in him soon. He is likely to run next in either the Tampa Bay Derby (GII) on March 10 or the Rebel Stakes (GII) on March 17.

Hansen: Many may feel that I have him ranked too low, but he does not seem to have much potential to get ten furlongs. Though he is a great grandson of both A.P. Indy, Unbridled, and Storm Cat, his immediate family does not give him much stamina support. His sire, Tapit, has not had much success with siring routers. In fact, he is only sired one grade one winner at ten furlongs, Careless Jewel. Hansen’s dam, Stormy Sunday, never won beyond six furlongs and her dam, Thinkin’strait, never produced a foal capable of winning a race longer than one mile. Nonetheless, Hansen’s victory in the Gotham Stakes (GIII) was nearly exactly what we needed to see from him. Without blinkers, he settled off the pace before drawing clear in the stretch to win by three lengths. He will have to use all the heart he has to continue to stretch out in distance, but he certainly has plenty of heart.

Secret Circle: Despite his pedigree, Secret Circle has not displayed much affinity for a lengthening of distance. It was a step in the right direction when he prevailed in the second division of the eight-furlong Southwest Stakes (GIII), but he drifted out yet again, which may hint that he was growing tired.

Street Life: He is very talented, but I don’t know if he will make it to the Derby, as he is entered to run in an allowance optional claiming at Aqueduct on March 7. He must perform well there and then acquire an abundant amount of graded stakes earnings in his next start in order to even be in consideration for the Kentucky Derby. If this schedule does not pan out, perhaps he could be a threat in one or two of the latter legs of the Triple Crown.

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Derby Top Ten #5

Less than two months from now, a three-year-old will stand before the Twin Spires with red roses draped over its withers. Its connections will joyously smile for the many cameras, spectators at the renowned Churchill Downs will cheer the horse on as it returns to the barn, and racing fans across the world will revere the horse. Why? Because the horse will have just won the most prestigious race in the world: the Kentucky Derby (GI).

Along the Derby trail, things can change drastically in the blink of an eye. There have certainly been changes since last week’s top ten, but the list topper remains the same.

This is the list of my top ten 2012 Kentucky Derby contenders as of February 27.

1. Union Rags: He solidified his position as the top horse on this list in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (GII) yesterday, only giving me more reason to keep him at the pinnacle. He settled off the pace beautifully before effortlessly drawing away to win by four lengths in a final time of 1:42.68 for a mile and one-sixteenth, finishing the final sixteenth in 6.40 despite being geared down. He displayed his breathtaking, ground-covering stride as new rider Julien Leparoux held him in hand in the final yards. This colt is absolutely brilliant, classy, and has the potential to be great. He is more deserving than any other horse to be number one here. His final prep for the Kentucky Derby will likely be made in the Florida Derby (GI) on March 31. For more on why he is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please read my Derby Hopeful article on him here.

2. El Padrino: Just as I expected he would, El Padrino proved those who believed he could only win over an off track wrong. In his Risen Star Stakes (GII) victory over a fast track, the beautifully-bred colt displayed his grit, determination, and heart by putting on a true horse race. He did not dominantly win his race like Union Rags, but he showed the very important characteristic of heart when dueling with Mark Valeski to win by a nose. He actually finished more quickly than Union Rags, completing the final sixteenth in 6.08 seconds. However, he exerted more energy and was asked for much more than Union Rags. Nonetheless, this is a very talented, hard-trying colt with a pedigree that strongly supports him to go the Derby distance. For more on why he is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please read my Derby Hopeful article on him here.

3. Creative Cause: He came home very quickly in the San Vicente Stakes (GII) and was just getting started at the end of the seven-furlong race. His pedigree and past performances show that he will enjoy a lengthening of distance, which is one of the most important characteristics in a Derby contender. He could start next in the March 10 San Felipe Stakes (GII) at Santa Anita or in the Rebel Stakes (GII) at Oaklawn Park on March 17. For more on why he is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please read my Derby Hopeful article on him here.

4. I’ll Have Another: He definitely has plenty of doubters out there, which only goes to show how much he needs to prove himself. His win in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (GII) on February 4 was impressive, but he will need to verify that it was not a fluke. His pedigree (by Flower Alley and out of an Arch mare) suggests that distance will not be a problem and other than his race in the Three Chimneys Hopeful Stakes (GI) – which can likely be thrown out – I’ll Have Another has very good form. We’ll learn more about him in the Santa Anita Derby on April 7.

5. Fed Biz: He has nearly everything that a top Derby contender needs: a distance-oriented pedigree, a beneficial stalking running style, and of course, undeniable ability. However, the main thing he lacks is graded stakes earnings. He will need to acquire those soon in order to secure both his validity as a talented racehorse and a position in the starting gate on the first Saturday of May. He will have his first chance to do so in the San Felipe on March 10.

6. Out of Bounds: He has learning to do, but he has a great foundation to build on. Out of a female family number twelve mare that won the renowned Breeders’ Cup Distaff (GI), Out of Bounds certainly has a royal family. He is also very talented, but will need to keep up his good form in the San Felipe.

7. American Act: He’s only won once, but the grit and determination he displayed in the San Vicente Stakes (GII) was very impressive. Though he finished second in that race, he was passed before coming back in late stretch, only to just miss. Also to his advantage is that he is Derby-bred through and through.

8. Mark Valeski: He showed much perseverance when battling El Padrino in the stretch of the Risen Star, only to lose by a nose. Before his impressive graded stakes debut, he had won two straight races: a maiden special weight at Delaware Park in a romp and an allowance optional claiming with determination. He has shown plenty of fight, which is certainly very important.

9. Bodemeister: Straight from the blazing Bob Baffert barn, Bodemeister is brilliant and beautifully bred. Though he has only started twice – in maiden special weight races – and only has one win to his credit, he has already proven himself. The colt that defeated him in his debut was none other than American Act and in his second start, he flew to a 9 ¼-length victory. He needs to acquire graded stakes earnings, but in the words of Bob Baffert, “We have plans.”

10. Algorithms: He takes a significant drop from third to tenth, but I am very wary of his splint injuries. It is true that popped splints typically do not take very long to heal and are usually just an interruption in training, but on the Derby trail, interruptions in training can be detrimental. This is especially true for this colt, who will need plenty of racing experience before the Derby. Though bred for distance, he has never been around two turns and he will need to get that experience before the Run for the Roses. In addition, the Kentucky Derby has proven to be very taxing on a horse and will take an extremely tough horse to win. An injury – even one as minor as a popped splint – is not a good sign.

Honorable Mentions:

Alpha: He has been visually impressive at Aqueduct this year, but his times have not been spectacular and neither have most of the horses he has defeated. He has certainly improved since being medicated with Lasix and his pedigree definitely suggests that he can get the Derby distance. He will need to train very well and run a great race in the Wood Memorial Stakes (GI) on April 7.

Castaway: He has great bloodlines for the Derby and is coming off an excellent win in the first division of the Southwest Stakes (GIII). He did break his maiden until his sixth start, but since then has been on a roll. He is yet another horse out of the en fuego Bob Baffert barn.

Gemologist: He is by all means full of talent, but he will need to improve his times. He is also a bit behind the others, having only worked four times this year. He could be seen next in the Rebel Stakes (GII) or Tampa Bay Derby (GII).

Hansen: We all know he is talented and has heart, but he will have to prove that he can be just as brilliant as a three-year-old as he was as a two-year-old. He will also need to show that he can stretch out in distance. He is expected to race next in the Gotham Stakes (GIII) at Aqueduct on March 3.

Paynter: Though other Bob Baffert trainees are ranked more highly than him, I am more impressed by him than any of the others. The only thing that keeps him from being in the top ten is the fact that he did not debut until February 18. Though he may have discouraged some or thrown people off by shaking his head in the stretch, he only did so as a result of his forelock becoming unbraided and flying into his ear. Actually, Paynter performed extremely professionally and despite being indisputably bred for distance, he dominantly won a five and one-half-furlong maiden special weight. Hopefully, he will obtain enough graded earnings to be able to enter the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby. Whether he makes it to the Derby or not, I believe he is a future star.

Secret Circle: Though he is bred for distance, he has not shown much liking for stretching out. His win in the second division of the one-mile Southwest Stakes (GIII) was a step in the right direction, though he was drifting out in late stretch like he did in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint, in which Secret Circle helped set blazing fractions over a tiring track. He may not get the Derby distance, but he is certainly a brilliant colt with a bright future ahead of him.

Street Life: His maiden win was impressive, but he has not worked since. In order to make the Derby, he will need to rapidly garner graded stakes earnings. His pedigree suggests that distance and class will not be an issue.

*Discreet Dancer, who was ranked second, will likely no longer appear on this list. I am still very high on him and believe he is an extremely talented colt, but I believe his biggest success will come in one-turn races or two-turn miles. In my opinion, his connections should not point him toward the Triple Crown, but rather set their sights on one-turn races.

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Derby Top Ten #4

The most anticipated race of the year is the Kentucky Derby (GI). As soon as the race is over, many already begin thinking about the next year’s running. There is no doubt about it; the Kentucky Derby is the greatest two minutes in sports.

There are several horses on the honorable mentions list (more than I would like to have), but that only shows that this crop has depth. Several horses labeled as an honorable mention could very well be on the top ten, but I had to make the tough decision to leave them in just the top seventeen. Besides, this is the Derby trail; a horse on the honorable mentions list may be number one someday.

This is the list of my top ten 2012 Kentucky Derby contenders as of February 20.

1. Union Rags: The Fountain of Youth Stakes (GII) in a week will tell us a lot more about him and several others on this list. Depending on how the race turns out, it could greatly alter this list. Union Rags has proved very classy and talented and is, as of now, considered by many to be the most talented colt in the crop. As aforementioned, we will find out much more about Union Rags and many other Kentucky Derby contenders on February 26. For more on why he is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please read my Derby Hopeful article on him here.

2. Discreet Dancer: Perhaps he has distance limitations, or perhaps not. The way he has pulled away effortlessly in his last two races before galloping out impressively suggests that he will be able to plus out. Plus, it is very encouraging that his fourth dam is the dam of Weekend Surprise, who produced the Preakness Stakes (GI, 9.5F)-winning Summer Squall and the Belmont Stakes (GI, 12F)- and Breeders’ Cup Classic (GI, 10F)-winning A.P. Indy. After missing a work due to a spiked temperature, Discreet Dancer returned to the work tab beautifully and is on track for the Fountain of Youth. That race is extremely significant for him: if he does well, he will only reinforce the fact that he is a top Derby contender; if he does not do well, his shot at Derby glory will dwindle. Nonetheless, he is incredibly talented. For more on why he is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please read my Derby Hopeful article on him here.

3. Algorithms: He is definitely talented and though he has not yet been around two turns, his pedigree suggests that that will be no problem at all. In fact, he just might have the best distance pedigree of the top three colts. His performance in the Fountain of Youth should give us a better idea of how much talent and capability he truly has. For more on why he is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please read my Derby Hopeful article on him here.

4. Creative Cause: His race in the San Vicente Stakes (GII) was not spectacular, but he did not run a terrible race. He switched leads a few times throughout the stretch, but it seemed to be as a result of being struck by the whip. He did close well in the final yards and it was only a seven-furlong race. Creative Cause is bred for more ground than that and galloped out far in front of the others. He will likely regain his top form and is certainly one of the top colts of this crop. For more on why he is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please read my Derby Hopeful article on him here.

5. El Padrino: He has shown much aptitude on the track and he is certainly bred for the Derby. Many doubt his ability to win on a fast track, but he has performed well on a track labeled as such, as shown in his debut and third-place finish in the Remsen Stakes (GII). He, unlike his two stablemates above (Discreet Dancer and Algorithms), will run in the Risen Star Stakes (GII) at the Fair Grounds on February 25. For more on why he is a top Kentucky Derby contender, please read my Derby Hopeful article on him here.

6. I’ll Have Another: Though he was a good two-year-old, it seems as if he will be much better as a three-year-old. His victory in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (GII) on February 4 was nothing short of dazzling, but the Santa Anita Park dirt surface can be quite deceiving. Nonetheless, this colt has talent. He will have a chance to solidify his position on this list on April 7 in the Santa Anita Derby (GI).

7. Fed Biz: He is by all means talented and has one of the most impressive pedigrees of all Derby contenders. He will need to quickly garner graded stakes earnings, but as talented as he has appeared in his first two races, that should not be much of a problem. He will have his first chance to obtain graded stakes earnings on March 10 in the San Felipe Stakes (GII).

8. Out of Bounds: He is very green, but he is surely becoming increasingly mature. By Discreet Cat and out of a Breeders’ Cup Distaff (GI) winner, Out of Bounds is certainly royally bred. However, like Discreet Dancer, the fact that he is by Discreet Cat gives room for doubt on whether or not he can get the Derby distance. Yet he is still very talented and it is quite encouraging that the horse he defeated in the Sham Stakes (GIII), Secret Circle, came back to win the second division of the Southwest Stakes (GIII). Out of Bounds will get another prep in the San Felipe Stakes (GII) on March 10.

9. American Act: Though he defeated Bodemeister when he broke his maiden, he took a much longer time than Bodemeister to do so. However, his race in the San Vicente Stakes (GII) on Saturday was extremely impressive and presented him with some graded stakes earnings. It appeared as if Drill would fly right past him, but American Act dug back in and galloped out ahead of Drill. He certainly has heart, which is a necessity in a successful racehorse. Awesome Act is very similarly bred by to the near-Triple Crown-winning Real Quiet, as he is by Quiet American out of female family four mare like the 1998 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner. This female family has produced the most Kentucky Derby winners.

10. Bodemeister: Bob Baffert is very high on this colt, who is named after his son, Bode. He was extremely impressive in his maiden breaker and the fact that the colt who beat him in his debut, American Act, came back to run a huge race in the San Vicente Stakes (GII) is extremely encouraging. Though his connections will likely strive to garner enough graded stakes earnings for the Kentucky Derby, if the colt is unable to acquire a sufficient amount of graded earnings in time, his pedigree suggests that he would be a contender for the third leg of the Triple Crown, the Belmont Stakes (GI). Yet, as brilliant as he was in his first start, I would love to see him in the starting gate on the first Saturday of May.

Honorable Mentions:

Alpha: He has not beaten much in his two starts this year and though he ran well without Lasix against Union Rags in the Champagne Stakes (GI) last year, he ran very poorly after acting up in the gate in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI). He was given Lasix for the first time in the Count Fleet Stakes, which he won by two and one-half lengths, and also ran on the drug in the Withers Stakes (GIII). His times have been slow, but that is to be expected on Aqueduct’s inner oval. He will need to be extremely impressive in the Wood Memorial Stakes (GI) on April 7.

Castaway: He could rightfully find a position on the top ten list, as could any horse named on this list of honorable mentions. His win today in Division One of the Southwest Stakes (GIII) was very impressive, as was his maiden victory in January. However, he did not break his maiden until his sixth try. He is certainly getting better and his pedigree undeniably suggests that the Derby distance will not be a problem (he is by the 2007 Kentucky Derby winner, Street Sense, and out of a female family one mare).

Gemologist: With three wins from three starts to his credit, Gemologist has clearly already proven his talent. However, his times have not been incredibly impressive. He has a beautiful pedigree, though, and is taking a similar path as Super Saver to the Derby. He could be seen next in the Rebel Stakes (GII) or the Tampa Bay Derby (GII) in March.

Hansen: It cannot be denied that Hansen is gifted, but he will need to prove that he can get the distance and be as impressive of a sophomore as he was a juvenile. He won’t be sporting the colors of his silks in his mane and tail in the Gotham Stakes (GIII) on March 3, but he will need to attest that he can continue his brilliance.

Paynter: If he had not made his debut so late, there is a very good chance that he would be ranked on my top ten list and quite highly. He debuted on Saturday at Santa Anita, closing from the back of the pack to sweep by the leaders. As he drew away to win by 4 ¼ lengths, he shook his head as if something was bothering his ear, but continued to professionally gallop away to an easy victory. Bob Baffert told HRTV that his foretop came unbraided and flew into his ear, which bothered the colt. By the Breeders’ Cup Classic (GI)-winning Awesome Again and out of a full sister to the two-time Breeders’ Cup Classic-winning Tiznow, Paytner should have no problem with a stretch out in distance. However, he will have to quickly earn a plentiful amount of graded stakes earnings to make it to the Kentucky Derby. I really hope he does, as this colt has definitely impressed me.

Secret Circle: When he broke his maiden as a two-year-old, I declared him my Derby horse. He proved extremely speedy and even went on to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint. It was disappointing to see him finish second in the one-mile Sham Stakes (GIII) in January and I knew that the colt needed to prove that he could settle and stretch out. In Division Two of the Southwest Stakes (GIII) today, he settled beautifully before proving tough in the stretch to draw away to a victory. He still has an issue with drifting out in the stretch, which may hint that he is getting tired down the straightaway. Still, he proved that he is improving today as far as settling and routing goes. It also must be noted that Secret Circle ran the second division of the Southwest a full second faster than his stablemate, Castaway.

Street Life: With a pedigree that screams Kentucky Derby and an impressive maiden victory, Street Life has unquestionably earned a label as a Kentucky Derby contender. Like several other talented horses, he will need to rush to acquire graded stakes earnings. 

Louisville, the city of the Kentucky Derby.
Photo: Terri Cage

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Derby Top Ten #3

The most anticipated race of the year is the Kentucky Derby (GI). As soon as the race is over, many already begin thinking about the next year’s running. There is no doubt about it; the Kentucky Derby is the greatest two minutes in sports.

This is the list of my top ten 2012 Kentucky Derby contenders as of February 12.

1. Union Rags: He has without a doubt earned his position as the top horse on this list. He is extremely talented and classy, but just needs to mature a little. I believe he has done so over the winter and will come back strong in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (GII) on February 26. By Dixie Union and out of a Gone West mare, he is bred for distance and has already shown in his races that he seems to be capable of stretching out. We will know more after the Fountain of Youth. For more on why he is a top Derby contender, please read my Derby Hopeful article on him here.

2. Discreet Dancer: I will not knock him greatly for a fever, though he must maintain good health from now on in order to be ranked so highly. In addition, he needs to show that he can stretch out and compete against graded stakes company. However, the fact that his fourth dam, Lassie Dear, is the dam of Weekend Surprise and that his grandsire is Gone West is encouraging. This colt is absolutely brilliant and is still on track for the Fountain of Youth. I am very excited about him. For more on why Discreet Dancer is a top Derby contender, please read my Derby Hopeful article on him here.

3. Algorithms: He could very well be ranked first or second, but I will keep him in third for now. The top four horses on this list are very closely ranked and each could rightfully take their position at the pinnacle, but I am eagerly waiting to see more from them. Algorithms is an incredibly talented colt with a brilliant pedigree and remarkable conformation to go along with his racing aptitude. He will also likely make his next start in the Fountain of Youth. For more on why he is a top Derby contender, please read my Derby Hopeful article on him here.

4. Creative Cause: He has already proven himself on the track and his pedigree suggests that distance will not be an issue. He could not quite keep up with Hansen and Union Rags at Churchill Downs in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI), but he still ran tenaciously and his maturity level has likely risen since then. All we can do now is await his sophomore debut in the San Vicente Stakes (GII) at Santa Anita on February 19. For more on why he is a top Derby contender, please read my Derby Hopeful article on him here.

5. I’ll Have Another: His race in the Three Chimneys Hopeful Stakes (GI) at Saratoga last year can be thrown out, as it was over a sloppy track and he came out of it with an injury that kept him sidelined for five months. Other than the Hopeful, I’ll Have Another has great form. His race in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (GII), in which he crossed the wire victoriously by nearly three lengths, was very impressive. Furthermore, his pedigree is quite promising as far as distance is concerned. He has doubters to prove wrong, but he has a chance to do so in the Santa Anita Derby (GI) on April 7.

6. El Padrino: He is capable of sitting off the pace and has a beautiful pedigree, both of which are important advantages. However, he has only won in the mud and both of those races were very impressive. Yet, he has had good showings on a fast track: a game second-place finish in his debut at Saratoga and a good third-place effort in the Remsen Stakes (GII) at Aqueduct. He’ll need to prove that he can win on a fast track against graded stakes company, but he has impressed me greatly and I am eager to see how he will do. He could make his next start in the Risen Star Stakes (GII) at the Fair Grounds on February 25.

7. Fed Biz: After a fourth-place finish in his debut at Hollywood Park, Fed Biz remarkably broke his maiden at Santa Anita Park at the end of December. I kept him in consideration for this list, but I wanted to see more from him. After his impressive allowance victory on February 9, I couldn’t help myself and allowed him to not only jump onto the list, but to land in seventh. In that allowance optional claiming triumph, he broke from the outside and found his position off the frontrunner, rating beautifully under Rafael Bejarano. He made a notable move around the far turn, galloping down the stretch on the wrong lead before finally changing leads and crossing the wire 5 ¾ lengths in front. A $950,000 yearling, Fed Biz is by the 2000 Horse of the Year and two-time leading sire, Giant’s Causeway, and out of the stakes-winning mare Spunoutacontrol, who is a half-sister to the graded stakes-winning and successful sire, Tale of the Cat. Fed Biz’s third dam, Narrate, is a Reine De Course mare who produced the grade one-winning dam of Pulpit. He is definitely a legitimate Derby contender.

8. Alpha: Trainer Kieran McLaughlin has opted to skip the Gotham Stakes (GIII) on March 3 and instead point to the Wood Memorial Stakes (GI) on April 7. He has been quite impressive in his two most recent starts and many have decided to throw out his dull effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI), in which it has been said that he bled. He’ll have to run extremely well in the Wood, which will likely attract other classy horses, as he has not beaten much in his Aqueduct victories and has been finishing in unpretentious times.

9. Out of Bounds: As a very tall, long-legged colt, Out of Bounds is still growing into himself. He was a bit green while winning the Sham Stakes (GIII) and will need to learn to commit to passing other horses in the stretch, but he is by all means talented and has a royal pedigree. He will likely race next in San Felipe Stakes (GII) at Santa Anita.

10. Bodemeister: He’s bred to run all day with the Belmont Stakes (GI, 12F)-winning Empire Maker as his sire and the graded stakes-winning Storm Cat mare Untouched Talent as his dam. After his impressive 9 ¼-length victory on Saturday, Bodemeister burst onto the Derby scene. Named after Bob Baffert’s son, Bode, Bodemeister was absolutely brilliant in his maiden win, leading from start to finish in an outstanding final time of 1:34.45 for a mile. He finished the final sixteenth of a mile in a very impressive 11.35 seconds despite being held in hand by Rafael Bejarano late. He’ll need to hurry to obtain graded stakes earnings, but he is nothing short of brilliant.

Honorable Mentions:

Gemologist: Undefeated in three career starts, this colt clearly has racing aptitude. His times are not spectacular, but his pedigree suggests that he will run all day. He is taking a Super Saver-esque path to the Derby, as his final start as a juvenile was the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (GII) and he is pointing towards either the Rebel Stakes (GII) or the Tampa Bay Derby (GII) in March.

Hansen: He has undeniable talent and heart. Though his race in the Holy Bull Stakes (GIII) was disappointing, we cannot forget his incredible juvenile career. Nonetheless, his sire, Tapit, is mostly successful with two-year-olds and though he has produced talented two-turn horses, he is not labeled a classic distance sire. Therefore, he will need to prove himself in the Gotham Stakes (GIII) on March 3 in order to stay in contention for the Kentucky Derby.

Secret Circle: Plain and simple, this horse loves to run. Despite his pedigree, he may have distance limitations, but I think that’s a result of some growing up he needs to do. He is definitely talented, but he needs to show that he can handle two turns. Secret Circle could be seen next in the San Vicente Stakes (GII) at Santa Anita on February 19.

Street Life: By the Kentucky Derby-winning Street Sense and out of a mare that is by the Kentucky Derby-winning Grindstone, this colt is without a doubt bred for the Kentucky Derby. He dropped many jaws on Saturday when he broke his maiden at Aqueduct, making a breathtaking move from the back of the pack to take the race by 2 ½ lengths. He showed much agility in the stretch, dodging horses before drawing off without urging from Junior Alvarado.

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Derby Top Ten #2

The most anticipated race of the year is the Kentucky Derby (GI). As soon as the race is over, many already begin thinking about the next year’s running. There is no doubt about it; the Kentucky Derby is the greatest two minutes in sports.

Some things have changed since my first Derby Top Ten on January 29, and some have stayed the same. This is the list of my top ten 2012 Kentucky Derby contenders as of February 6.

1. Union Rags: This colt has pure talent. He needs to learn to run straight in the stretch, but he’s likely matured in the past few months. With undeniable talent, incredible conformation, and a solid pedigree, Union Rags rightfully deserves the top position on this list. He is working towards a start in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (GII) at Gulfstream Park on February 26. For more on why he is a top Derby contender, please click here.

2. Discreet Dancer: He is freakishly talented and though there is room for doubt on whether he can get the distance or not, there is also plenty in his pedigree that suggests he can be a distance horse. For instance, his grandsire is Gone West and his fourth dam produced Weekend Surprise, the dam of A.P. Indy and Summer Squall. He could very well be seen next in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (GII) at Gulfstream Park on February 26. For more on why he is a top Derby contender, please click here.

3. Algorithms: The more I study him, the more I’m impressed by him. He is by one of the top sires in Bernardini and has a very strong dam side as well. Plus, his performances on the track have been nothing short of impressive. He has not been around two turns yet, but his pedigree hints that he will have no issue with two-turn races. He is also pointing towards the Fountain of Youth Stakes (GII) at Gulfstream on February 26.

4. Creative Cause: He’s a hard-knocking colt that always tries. Plus, each time he’s won, he’s shown that he can be absolutely brilliant. He’s not undefeated, but he’s done nothing wrong. In addition, his pedigree suggests that distance will not be a problem for him. He is expected to make his sophomore debut on February 19 in the San Vicente Stakes (GII) at Santa Anita Park.

5. I’ll Have Another: This colt seems to have turned a new page. As a two-year-old, he won a maiden special weight at Hollywood Park before finishing a good second to Creative Cause in the Best Pal Stakes (GII). He then shipped east to run in the Three Chimneys Hopeful Stakes (GI) at Saratoga, finishing sixth in the mud and coming out of the race with a shin injury. He did not start for five months, reappearing in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (GII) at Santa Anita. At 43-1, he impressively won the race by 2 ¾ lengths, leaving behind him the full brother to the 2011 Champion Three-Year-Old Filly – Royal Delta – in Empire Way, the grade one-placed Rousing Sermon, and the grade one-winning Liaison, who dropped the rider in the stretch after clipping heels. He showed ability to settle off the pace in the Lewis and drew off impressively, running the final sixteenth of a mile in 6.32 seconds in an impressive official clocking of 1:40.84 for a mile and one-sixteenth. He is by the Travers Stakes (GI, 10F)-winning Flower Alley and out of an Arch – the sire of Blame – mare. With that and the fact that he is inbred 4 X 4 to both Mr. Prospector and Danzig, he should handle a stretch out in distance well.

6. El Padrino: He has a great running style for the Derby (sitting off the pace) and though I was unsure what to think of him at first, I really like him now that I’ve looked into him more.  After finishing second in his debut, he won a maiden special weight in the slop at Belmont Park by an impressive 12 ¾ lengths. After a very good third-place finish in the Remsen Stakes (GII) at Aqueduct, El Padrino brilliantly defeated the talented Take Charge Indy in the mud at Gulfstream Park in a mile and one-sixteenth allowance. Considering he is by Pulpit – a son of A.P. Indy – and out of a Giant’s Causeway mare that is a half-sister to a mare who won a grade two at ten furlongs, it seems as if El Padrino is capable of the Derby distance. It certainly doesn’t hurt that his fourth dam – Remedia – is a Reine De Course mare who produced the grade one-winning dam of Chic Shirine – winner of the Ashland Stakes (GI, 8.5F) – and the three-time grade one-winning Queena. He could race next in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (GII) on February 26 at Gulfstream.

7. Alpha: He has only been out of the money once in his career and that is when he finished eleventh in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI). Yet, it has been said that he bled in the Breeders’ Cup. Since that disappointing finish, the son of the Preakness Stakes (GI, 9.5F)- and Travers Stakes (GI,10F)-winning Bernardini has won two stakes in New York by a combined winning margin of 5 ¾ lengths. His most recent win came on Saturday in the Withers Stakes (GIII), in which he covered the last sixteenth of a mile in 6.51 seconds for a final time of 1:44.23 for a mile and one-sixteenth. With Bernardini as his sire and a Nijinksy II mare as his dam, Alpha should have no problem with distance. He will stay in New York and could be seen next in the Gotham Stakes (GIII) on March 3 or the Wood Memorial Stakes (GI) on April 7.

8. Out of Bounds: He has plenty of learning to do, but he clearly has talent. Like Discreet Dancer, the fact that Discreet Cat is his sire puts some distance doubts into the picture, but he has plenty on his dam side that suggest he may be able to route. He has been working very well at Hollywood Park for trainer Eoin Harty and should race next in the San Felipe Stakes (GII) on March 10 at Santa Anita.

9. Hansen: Everyone knows this colt is brilliant, but it is a necessity that he learns how to relax. In order to last in the Derby, he will need to learn to settle. Though defeated in the Holy Bull Stakes (GIII) last out, Hansen should still be considered when the top three-year-olds are concerned. He will likely make his next start in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (GII) on February 26 at Gulfstream.

10. Gemologist: It certainly helps him that he already has two wins over the Churchill Downs dirt surface. He also faced one of the most highly-touted juvenile maiden winners of 2011 in Ever So Lucky, battling him down the stretch before drawing clear to win the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (GII). After several weeks without posting an official work, the Todd Pletcher trainee worked for the first time as a sophomore on Sunday, breezing three furlongs in 39.88. He will need to step up the training regimen and his times on the track.

Dropped off the list:
Liaison: This colt was ranked fifth on my first Derby Top Ten, but after his start in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (GII) on Saturday, I decided to take him out of the top ten. He may have not been able to finish since he clipped heels and lost the jockey, but he wouldn’t have won regardless. He was dropping back around the far turn as it was. He is still a nice colt, but he will have to prove himself again to regain a position in the top ten.

Rousing Sermon: Ranked sixth on my initial top ten, I dropped him off the list after he ran an uninspiring third in the Lewis, in which he actually crossed the wire in fourth but was bumped up into third when Groovin’ Solo was disqualified. He seems to be one of those that always tries but rarely gets up in time.

Secret Circle: I still have faith in him, but he needs to prove that he can relax and get the distance. He relaxed in the Sham but could not hold off Out of Bounds. He is bred for distance, but obviously has a need for speed. Though fast works are usually promising, I find the fact that Secret Circle’s last few works have been very quick discouraging, as Bob Baffert has been trying to get him to relax. He is talented without a doubt, but I’d like to see him relax more and carry his speed over longer distances.

Churchill Downs: Home of the Kentucky Derby
Photo: Terri Cage

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Derby Top Ten #1

The most anticipated race of the year is the Kentucky Derby (GI). As soon as the race is over, many already begin thinking about the next year’s running. There is no doubt about it; the Kentucky Derby is the greatest two minutes in sports.

This is the list of my top ten 2012 Kentucky Derby contenders as of January 29.

1. Union Rags: As the early Kentucky Derby favorite, Union Rags is at the top of many Kentucky Derby lists. The son of Dixie Union won his first three starts impressively before falling a head short to Hansen in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI). However, he showed up in all four of his races in 2011, displaying his sheer talent. He has a fine pedigree and is a very well-built horse with nearly flawless conformation. Upon seeing him in person at the Breeders’ Cup, I was able to tell that Union Rags is a very classy individual that carries himself with much confidence. He has been working out for trainer Michael Matz at Palm Meadows Training Center, posting pleasing workouts over the dirt surface. His most recent work was a 1:00.82 five-furlong work. As long as Union Rags learns to race less greenly and continues to improve while maintaining his incredible talent, he will be very difficult to beat. Trainer Michael Matz is pointing him towards the Fountain of Youth Stakes (GII) at Gulfstream Park on February 26. For more on why Union Rags is a top Derby contender, please read my Derby Hopeful article on him by clicking here.

2. Discreet Dancer: This Todd Pletcher trainee has been incredibly impressive, winning his first two starts – a maiden special weight and an allowance at Gulfstream Park – by a combined 15 ¼ lengths. He is clearly extremely talented and there is no telling how good he is yet. He will need to prove himself against graded stakes company, but it seems as if he should handle the step up in class well. His pedigree may possibly have distance limitations, but with Gone West as his broodmare sire, he may be able to handle the stretch out in distance. What intrigues me most about his pedigree is that his fourth dam is Lassie Dear, a Reine De Course mare who produced Weekend Surprise – the dam of A.P. Indy and Summer Squall. This hints that he may be better suited to routing than many think. His next start is unknown. For more on why Discreet Dancer is a top Derby contender, please read my Derby Hopeful article on him by clicking here.

3: Algorithms: After two impressive victories at two renowned racetracks (Belmont and Gulfstream), Algorithms emerged on many Derby lists. A son of the young, successful stud Bernardini, Algorithms sat near the pace in his debut at Belmont before stylishly drawing off to win by 5 ¼ lengths. He didn’t start for over six months, reappearing in a six and one-half-furlong allowance optional claiming at Gulfstream Park. He sat off the pace before battling the highly-touted Consortium down the stretch. After digging deep, the bay colt prevailed by a length before galloping out impressively. Today in the Holy Bull Stakes (GIII), the Todd Pletcher trainee effortlessly galloped past Hansen to win by 5 lengths in a final time of 1:36.17 for one mile over a sloppy track at Gulfstream Park. His Preakness Stakes (GI)-winning sire, Bernardini, is of course by the Belmont Stakes- and Breeders’ Cup Classic-winning A.P. Indy. The bottom side of his pedigree also hints that Algorithms will be able to stretch out, as his dam is by Cryptoclearance, who produced the Belmont Stakes-winning Victory Gallop, the Prince of Wales-winning Cryptocloser, and the Breeders’ Cup Classic-winning Volponi. Plus, he is a direct descendant of a Reine De Course mare in Qurrat-Al-Ain. Without a doubt, Algorithms has the makings of a successful racehorse and has already been incredibly impressive. I have a good feeling about him. He may make his next start in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (GII) at Gulfstream Park on February 26.

4. Creative Cause: One of the top juveniles of 2011, this son of Giant’s Causeway looks to maintain his class as a three-year-old. He has raced primarily in southern California, other than his game third-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs. He has never finished out of the money and his wins in the Best Pal Stakes (GII) and Norfolk Stakes (GI) were very impressive. By a prominent sire capable of producing distance horses in Giant’s Causeway and out of a grade one-winning mare who won four stakes races at one mile or longer, Creative Cause should have no problem with the Derby distance. Trainer Mike Harrington is pointing him towards the San Vicente Stakes (GII) at Santa Anita on February 19.

5. Liaison: One of the most quickly improving colts on the Derby trail, Liaison has only suffered one loss in his career. After finishing third in a Del Mar maiden special weight, he won his next three starts: a maiden special weight at Santa Anita, the Real Quiet Stakes at Hollywood Park, and the CashCall Futurity (GI) at Hollywood. In both the Real Quiet and the CashCall Futurity, Liaison held off late runs by Rousing Sermon. Though the other colt was closing impressively, Liaison was determined to hold him off and did so, also galloping out in front. This shows me that he does not want another horse to finish in front of him, which is obviously a very important characteristic. With the late Indian Charlie as his sire, many will doubt Liaison’s ability to get the Derby distance, but through his dam, he traces back to several Belmont Stakes (GI, 12F) winners, such as Victory Gallop, A.P. Indy, Seattle Slew, Secretariat, Native Dancer, Nashua, and Blue Larkspur. In fact, his dam directly traces back to the x-factor (large heart trait) carrier Blue Larkspur (as does Creative Cause’s dam). This colt is royally bred and has plenty of heart. This makes for a deadly combination. Shall he continue his awesome performances, he will likely climb higher on this list. Trainer Bob Baffert is pointing him towards the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (GII) at Santa Anita Park on February 4.

6. Rousing Sermon: This colt has become somewhat of a “wise guy” horse. With impressive closing rallies behind Liaison in his past two starts, Rousing Sermon has shown the potential to become a top colt on the Derby trail. He has already started six times and has not yet finished out of the money. After breaking his maiden and running third in two California-bred stakes, Rousing Sermon was victorious in the Bob Benoit California Cup Juvenile Stakes. He followed up that win with two impressive seconds to Liaison. By a young son of the outstanding sire Pulpit and out of an Awesome Again mare, Rousing Sermon’s pedigree features plenty of successful distance horses that produced horses capable of routing, such as A.P. Indy, Alydar, Northern Dancer, Nearco, and Blushing Groom. Rousing Sermon seems to be coming into his own and once he does, he will be difficult to hold off. Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer is pointing him towards the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (GII) at Santa Anita on February 4.

7. Out of Bounds: After his win in the Sham Stakes (GIII) over Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint champion Secret Circle, Out of Bounds found his position on many Kentucky Derby watch lists. He was very green in that race and took much urging from Garret Gomez to reach the front. His stride was very choppy, but since he is a very tall, green horse, that is understandable. Like Discreet Dancer, there are doubts about distance in his pedigree due to being sired by the brilliant miler Discreet Cat. However, he is a grandson of the distance-producing Unbridled’s Song and by being a son of the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (GI)-winning Unbridled Elaine, he is a direct descendant of the 1956 Broodmare of the Year, Swoon. He clearly has plenty of talent and a royal pedigree, but he will need to mature a bit. Trainer Eoin Harty is pointing him towards the San Felipe Stakes (GII) at Santa Anita on March 10.

8. Hansen: The fields he faced in his first two starts may not have been as high quality as those at tracks like Saratoga, Santa Anita, or Belmont, but Hansen proved superior, winning them by an outstanding combined winning margin of 25 ½ lengths. Though many doubted him for running at Turfway Park instead of tracks such as the abovementioned ones, he was able to defeat top two-year-olds when it counted most: the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He proved very tough in that race and never gave up, holding off Union Rags to win by a head. In his sophomore debut, the Holy Bull Stakes (GIII), Hansen stumbled out of the gate before setting blazing fractions over a sloppy track. Algorithms blew right past him, leaving the 2011 Champion Two-Year-Old 5 lengths behind in second. Many doubt Tapit’s ability to produce a sophomore capable of routing, but the sire has produced Careless Jewel – winner of the Alabama Stakes (GI, 10F) at three, Concord Point – winner of the West Virginia Derby (GII, 9F) at three, Rattlesnake Bridge – runner-up in the Travers Stakes (GI, 10F) at three, Tapizar – winner of the San Fernando Stakes (GII, 8.5F) at four, and Zazu – winner of the Lady’s Secret Stakes (GI, 8.5) at three. Yet Hansen’s sophomore debut did not help his case for a successful sophomore routing career. He will need to learn how to relax, as setting fast fractions and lasting in the Kentucky Derby is a very difficult thing to do. Still, Hansen definitely has talent and when he’s on the top of his game, he is very difficult to pass. He may be seen next in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (GII) on February 26.

9. Gemologist: In 2009, a WinStar Farm-owned and Todd Pletcher-trained colt won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (GII) before winning the Kentucky Derby the next year. In 2011, a WinStar Farm-owned and Todd Pletcher-trained colt won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and looks to do the same as the 2009 victor. His name is Gemologist. The son of the two-time Breeders’ Cup Classic (GI)-winning Tiznow is undefeated in three starts, all of which have come in Kentucky. In his Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes victory, Gemologist defeated the highly-touted Ever So Lucky. Another important aspect of his KJCS win was that it was against a large field at Churchill Downs, which gives him a somewhat similar experience to the Kentucky Derby. His pedigree hints that he will have no distance limitations, as his sire, Tiznow, was a successful router and has produced horses of the same ability. Also, he traces back to Native Dancer four times within his pedigree, three times through Northern Dancer. He clearly has sheer talent and an impressive pedigree, but he may need to step it up a notch to be highly competitive on the Derby trail, as his times are not exactly spectacular. His next start is unknown.

1o: Secret Circle: I am not giving up on this colt, who I have followed since his impressive maiden victory at Del Mar. After he won the Jack Goodman Stakes at Santa Anita easily, I saw him win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint in person. It was clear that he had some learning to do, as he desperately needed to learn how to relax. After all, he helped Trinniberg run the first quarter of the Juvenile Sprint in a breathtaking 20.96 seconds. Bob Baffert began working on teaching the colt to relax and took off the blinkers before Secret Circle made his two-turn debut in the Sham Stakes (GIII) at one mile. This time, he settled off the pace before taking the lead as the field turned for home. He ran well, but could not hold off the charge of Out of Bounds. It was a very good learning experience for him and I hope that Baffert will continue trying to route Secret Circle, as the colt is of course by the Pimlico Special (GI, 9.5F)-winning Eddington and out of a Dixieland Band mare. In addition, his fifth, sixth, and seventh dams are all Reine De Course mares. If Secret Circle can continue to learn, he may be able to be ranked higher on this list. Trainer Bob Baffert is pointing him towards the San Vicente Stakes (GII) on February 19. For more on why Union Rags is a top Derby contender, please read my Derby Hopeful article on him by clicking here.

The Kentucky Derby winner's enclosure awaits.
Photo by Mary Cage

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